Volga Center for Financial Consulting and Evaluation invite professional appraisers to take part in the 2nd stage of the formation project collective expert assessments of real estate market parameters, Required in the process of providing real estate assessment services. As part of this project, it is planned to assemble the views of the appraisers regarding the parameters of the market, to analyze, process them in accordance with the rules and methods of expert assessment and form collective expert assessments on the parameters necessary for appraisers reflecting the opinion of a large number of professional appraisers from various cities and subjects Russian Federation. In contrast to the 1st stage, in accordance with the comments and suggestions expressed by the appraisers, during the subsequent discussion of the results, the list of parameters is significantly expanded in the 2nd stage.

In this regard, I ask you to fill out the attached forms and send them to the electronic version at: ***** @ *** RU with the topic "Expert Poll" until November 15.

Express your gratitude to you in advance.

All appraisers who participated in the project and sent the requested data will be sent short reports with the results of the processing, which they can use in their assessment work.

Scientific project manager

[Download survey blanks]

Information support project on the Internet:

[Library Labreit. RU] [ESMI ". Appraiser Herald "] [Appraiser Register] /

[Online questions and discussion]

Brief description of the second stage of the project

Today, the Russian appraiser has been working in conditions of lack of information, and this deficiency is forced to compensate for the inclusion in calculations on the estimation of real estate objects of correction coefficients, predictive characteristics and other parameters of the real estate market reflecting his personal point of view. An unjustifiably overestimated subjective component, which contributes to the appraiser to the evaluation process, question issues the objectivity and reliability of the final assessment claimed by the appraiser in the evaluation report. To somewhere to overcome the difficulty arising in connection with the deficit, reduce the impact on the result of the subjective factor and contribute to the unity and comparability of the assessment results, it is proposed to create a unified set of such parameters reflecting the collective opinion of professional appraisers working in various regions of the Russian Federation.

Objective of the project: Relying on individual expert assessments of individual appraisers that are on the basis of professional knowledge, personal experience And intuition personal judgments regarding the correction factors, the parameters of the real estate market at the current time and in the foreseeable future, to form collective expert assessments of the real estate market parameters, often used by appraisers in the process of their evaluation activities.

Project content. The basis of the work is to identify opinions regarding the parameters of the market of actively working appraisers that perform the functions of experts in this project. To implement this project, a standardized questionnaire has been developed. Data processing includes verification of coherence of experts and the formation of group opinions based on the statistical processing of expert information. Material processing is performed by a group of analysts.

Brief Results of the first stage. This stage is a logical continuation of the work performed at the first stage, which was attended by more than 100 experts - professional appraisers from 30 constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Appraisers from Moscow, Novosibirsk, Tyumen took the most active part. General conclusions based on the results of an expert survey, data tables, meaning and interpretation of the estimated parameters and brief recommendations for their use are shown in electronic means and published in the Journal "Appraiser Register". In addition, the main results decorated in the form of tables were sent to all appraisers who participated in the survey (though, late for which we bring deep apologies).

We do not have accurate data on how many appraisers on this moment Use the results of this polling. However, in appeals to us and discussions in electronic means, it can be concluded that these materials were widely used and proven to many appraisers. Separate comments were expressed, which for the most part were reduced to the proposal to expand the list of estimated parameters. We carefully read the comments received and, if possible, took into account them.

First Refers to the characteristics of the market, which are difficult, and sometimes it is impossible to determine the estimated path, based on market statistics. This, first of all, refers to the forecast parameters that the appraiser includes in its calculations. At the same time, the project developers proceed from the fact that, of course, no one can know exactly how the market will actually develop in the future. But the market value of the object is currently determined by the fact that the market "thinks" today. This means that for the correct assessment of the market value, the appraiser needs to "guess" the expectations of the market participants in relation to how rental rates will change, and what is the expected trajectory of real estate prices in the foreseeable future. Therefore, the opinion of each appraiser who not only records the current state of prices in the market, but also has an impact on them with its estimates, it is extremely important to determine general mood and market expectations. If there is a sufficient number of information, it is possible to obtain correct estimates of the parameters reflecting the general representations of the market participants about its further development. Therefore, the table should include personal expectations of the survey participant for the future development of the real estate market.

To the second group The characteristics of the market, reflecting the current reports of investors about the required profits, risks, etc. These characteristics are very important to determine the diagnostic rate, capitalization coefficient and entrepreneur profits. At the same time, by regions on which there will be enough data (at least 8), such characteristics will be calculated separately.

Third Group Includes the parameters that are used as corrective amendments within the comparative approach. These parameters are usually calculated by each appraiser using pair sales. However, as a rule, the appraiser does not have enough data, and therefore the adjustments used by them can not always be recognized as sufficiently convincing. At the same time, because in many cases such adjustments are not specific to the region, the principal possibility of combining them (generalizations) and obtain more accurate estimates of corrective parameters connecting more complete information.

Processing of the data of the expert survey. The project is supposed to use special methods Data processing, including interval mathematics methods, since expert data are presented in the form of intervals. Please note that the survey participants must specify the minimum and maximum parameter values. Subsequent data processing involves the presence of such information.

The results of the project implementation. Based on the data collected, it is supposed to prepare a report with a detailed analysis of all information. This report will contain data processing results using modern methods of mathematical statistics. The processing results will be presented in the form of tables, graphs, histograms, convenient for use in the process of evaluation and registration of reports. Brief reports with processing results will be sent to all appraisers who participated in the project and the requested data. The results of the appraisers in this report will be able to use in their assessment work.

Further development of the project. It is assumed to conduct a periodic survey with the report with the processing results regularly, with an interval of 6 -12 months. In addition, if this project is supported by a sufficient amount appraiser, at the following stages, the parameter list will be complemented by multipliers and other characteristics used in business evaluation.

Features of the second stage of the project:

· Taking into account the comments and suggestions of the appraisers using the values \u200b\u200bof the real estate market parameters published by the first stage, expanded a list of parameters to be surveyed.

· Provided for an increase in the number of experts involved in the survey, it is planned to submit collective expert assessments with differentiation by region.

· Along with the publication of tables with the values \u200b\u200bof the real estate market parameters, recommendations will be developed, how to use these data in the process of performing the evaluation and registration of the report.

· Special attention will be paid to the development of procedures to increase the accuracy of the mass assessment based on the use of expert information.

Adopted in 2015, the legislative base in the field of assessment enters into a contradiction with the established practice and methodology of appraisal activities

Irina Vishnevskaya

g. neral director of Berkshire Advisezori Group,

e. kurspert of the working body for methodological support and examination
under the assessment board of the Ministry of Economic Development I am the Russian Federation,

member of the working body for the protection of the rights and legitimate interests of appraisers
and the SROO Council on the Assessment of the Ministry of Economic Development I Russian Federation,

certified judicial expert, member of NP "Chamber of Judicial Experts", Member of the Forensic Expert Scientific Society
Forensic Science Society (United Kingdom), the only certified International Judicial Expert

Adopted in 2015, the legislative base in the field of assessment enters into a contradiction with the established practice and methodology of appraisal activities

Macroeconomic situation in the market, the second year, which is characterized by the instability of the Russian national currency, aggravating problems in bank finance sector, and in 2015 there are also sharply falling oil prices, makes adjustments to all sectors of the economy, including in assessment activities .

Some experts compare it with the crisis situation 2008-2009, which in my opinion is not quite correct, since what we observed in the 2014-2015 economy. - Not a crisis, but a systemic restructuring, new rules of the game, to which you want to adapt and quickly rebuild. It is appropriate to quote the classics - "differentiate or die!".

In any case, during the years that followed the crisis, the Russian real estate market has changed seriously, and this requires new approaches to the assessment. This is recognized at the level of the government, and one of the results was the adoption of new federal evaluation standards this year, and according to their results, the decision of the Ministry of Economic Development, I create workers in their refinement.

Under the auspices of the Ministry of Economic Relations, the Working Group on Methodology and Expertise has begun to develop methodical recommendations According to certain types of assessment objects, however, this is not enough. Reviews are also needed on the market assessment directories and methods for determining correction coefficients.

Buyer market

One of the obvious consequences of the change of macroeconomic realities began, as it seems to us, the impossibility of applying the estimated community of the Reference Real Estate Appraiser as recommended at this ed. Level L.A., at least - without making serious adjustments. There are serious questions and other general consumer reference books and their authors of the calculation coefficients, since both the methods of their (coefficients) of the receipt and the values \u200b\u200bof the values \u200b\u200bthemselves are not even yesterday, and the day before yesterday.

Moreover, the incorrectness of the values \u200b\u200bof reference books applied by appraisers - we are talking about the "Real Estate Appraiser Directory" ed. Level L.A. and FRD ed. Yaskevich E.E., actually lead to the braking of the market of transactions with assets.

So, in the second half of 2015, we saw that the number of objects of real estate offerings is enormous, and investors who can buy are very small. The "buyer's market" was formed, which dictates specific rules of the game and forms real market prices of objects. Discounts are very large: an asset that the growing market cost $ 30 million, with a clearcash - Flow. Revenues predicted or manageable expenses, in the second half of 2015 sold for $ 10-12 million.

The appraisers did not rebuilt when determining the cost and continue to make predictions of a steadily growing "seller market", using the coefficients familiar to them, while discounts on the bargaining today can reach 65%, and in some cases more.

Outdated approaches are often harmful and situation situations: they slow down the transactions and, worse, do not allow in court to establish the true value of real estate at the moment.

I will give such an example.

Joint-stock company plans to sell a complex of property - a fruit and vegetable base in Moscow. The leadership of the base held negotiations with a number of potential buyers (including with major tenants of this base, concerned and in its purchase).

For the organization of auction, an independent evaluation digging was attracted, which performed an assessment of the property complex using all the appraisers available appraisal appraisals, applying appraisers for the introduction of adjustments. The report was prepared on their basis. It should be noted that the results of the assessment of three approaches were close. However, buyers, and the company's self-seller management itself, stated that the results of the assessment are greatly overestimated and if in 2012-2013, for the specified amount, the base could be sold, today this price is overestimated twice!

The appraiser applied discounts available to him, but the result of the assessment has changed insignificant . The seller set the object to auction - the bidding did not take place, since none of the potential buyers did not express the desire to acquire an asset on today's costs. It has been a year and, as far as I know, taking into account the auction procedures, the base is not sold.

This article is devoted to the explanation of why these techniques are not fully working correctly. The purpose of this publication is not to criticize approaches or individual authors who have made significant efforts to develop them, and in order to begin the discussion on the formation of new approaches to the methodology that would be relevant and, if possible, are universal for the entire territory of the Russian Federation in the current situation .

The need for new approaches Dictated, among other things, and the frequent attempts of recovery by customers who were involved, in their opinion, revenues from appraisers, as well as the practice of the Central Bank, falling asleep with the complaints of independent evaluation companies, which were carried out according to the assessment of pledges, and today the Central Bank is checked when checking the commercial banks. And therefore this work - In the interests of the entire estimation community and requires consolidation of the efforts of market professionals.

Discounts for bargaining, practice 2014-2015.

During 2015, partners and experts LLC Berkshire Adwalizori Group were initiated and conducted a number of studies of how discounts for bargaining in 2014-2015 were formed. To this end, we conducted a study of the appraisers available at the disposal methodical instructions and the collections with which they enjoy to justify and calculate discounts on bargaining in determining the market value of real estate and business objects from two points of view.

First, we were interested in the validity of these coefficients. Secondly, the practice of using reference data during the crisis of 2014-2015. The third faithful question: how much will the coefficients proposed by reference books be viable for 2016?

Consider each other from the directory and nature of the occurrence of reference data included in them.

"Reseller Real Estate Appraiser". Volume 1. Corrective coefficients for a comparative approach. Leifer L.A., Sterlen A.M. and etc.

The data of the reference book, and we are talking about the coefficients applied by appraisers in determining the cost of objects, in particular, the indicator "adjustment to bargaining" is determined on the basis of the method of collective expert assessments (200 parameters).

This method was implemented by analyzing expert assessments of appraisers who filled out the questionnaires based on their knowledge, personal experience and intuition. All this made it possible to form collective expert assessments by methods of mathematical statistics.

The directory is published since 2011 in the preface toI. Edition for 2011 it is indicated that the evaluator from 50 cities of Russia took part in the survey, 65 parameters / nature of the real estate market took into account. In the preface K.III The reference book for 2014 says that the information is based on a survey material of 190 leading appraisers from 52 cities of Russia. Applied to the latter it is 3.64 appraiser for each city, i.e. 3-4 appraiser (respondent) survey on every city.

Table 1

And who are experts?

Here we seem to be appropriate to discuss the compliance of the respondents to the needs of the survey. In some cases, it causes reasonable doubt. Consider the approval on page 24 of the directory edited by Lefefe L.A., Sterlock A.M. and etc.: "…the opinion of various market participants represent appraisers who, by virtue of their profession, and simply experience this experience better ... ».

The market specialists will probably remember that on 04.08.2015, the order of the Ministry of Labor of Russia No. 539n "On Approval of Professional Standard on the Standard in Evaluctal Activities" was published (registered in the Ministry of Justice of Russia 27.08.2015 N38720).

Praphrazing in short, the content of the professandard can be said thatthe competence of the appraiser is determined knowledge of methods and methods of calculations (ie, the use of formulas) and the use of information sources to determine the cost of the estimated objects based on its knowledge.

Criterion or Surrogat?!

The labor market has also developed a clear understanding: who can qualify for the work of the appraiser. These are specialists who have a diploma appraiser. The remaining requirements mainly relate to experience in the estimated sphere.

Unfortunately, it is impossible to exclude that the authors of the directories are editors as the respondents. Level L.A. Specialists conducted a survey that do not comply with the criteria established by the Government of the Russian Federation and the markets, since they are neither native knowledge of the real estate market, nor market participants accompanying real estate purchase transactions. In fact, they are only consumers of these information, and, it means, the "expert" information issued by them is the surrogate of primary information, which comes from real experts working directly with sellers and buyers of real estate. Moreover, this information passed through the prism of the knowledge and ideas of such an appraiser, and probably distorted.

It is worth saying that the mentioned directory has its own "assumptions and restrictions".

I will quote some of the most controversial: "it should not be hard to limit the appraiser to use these or other parameter values. »; «… the appraiser responded to his questions about the numerical values \u200b\u200bof the most significant characteristics of the real estate market on the basis of subjective opinions and practical experience in assessing real estate objects in its region ».

Taking into account the above, we are forced to say that at present the appraisers are offered as a basic "Real Estate Certificate" containingdata that do not have anything in common with transactions with real estate objects built by appraisers based on their subjective knowledge and opinions regarding the methods of calculation and the applied formulas. It is on them that the community should build their assessments: which discounts can give the buyer to the seller when selling real estate objects.

Alternative sources

Consider other examples of reference appraisal literature used to calculate the market value of real estate. Unfortunately, the principles offered in them and the estimates offered by the authors of the reference book in 2014-2015. Also not always correspond to reality.

So, "Consolidated data directory for assessment and consulting (ending financial crisis) »SRD №5-2010 Ed. Yaskevich E.E. This reference is a more fundamental and systematic publication, detailed information on the principle "How exactly" needs to be calculated or take into account the diversity of factors and issues faced by an appraiser in the course of calculations. But in this technique there are nuances, in particular, the relevance of the data sample is not quite obvious. Consider the inclined K.application on the difference in the cost of the sentence and prices of the transaction that else Called the adjustment to bargaining or on "warming up". In most evaluation reports, it is unreasonably accepted in the range of 5 ... 15%, while the current crisis has affected these indicators.

When analyzing the real estate market, the draft directories are focused mainly on the proposals of objects exhibited for sale, due to the fact that there are no data on the conditions of transactions. It is precisely a large influence of the coefficient of "warming" on the value parameters of the assessment objects (0.85-0.95) does not suggest that there is an unconditional possibility of assessing objects in developed markets (for example, apartments) only by the comparison method.

For example, in the collections of the SRD No. 17-2015, on page 14, discounts on bargaining across the cities of Russia, including in large cities (Moscow, St. Petersburg, Krasnodar, Ekaterinburg, Rostov-on-Don), medieval cities (Vladivostok, Novosibirsk , Omsk, Stavropol, Tambov, Tver) and small cities and settlements Moscow region, as well as in Minsk.

Discounts on bargaining differentiated by types of real estate : Residential, trading, office, production and warehouse and land, and for sale and for rent are offered to apply different discounts.

table 2

"Real Estate Appraiser Directory" Edited Level Lion Abramovich, edition of the third, updated and expanded, in 2 volumes, 2014

The information presented in the third edition is based on a survey material about 200 leading appraisers from 52 cities of Russia. The directory contains the characteristics of the real estate market and corrective coefficients used by the appraisers in real estate evaluation.

The directory is intended for use in the real estate assessment process. It can also be useful to specialists engaged in market research, students of economic specialties and specialists passing professional retraining in the specialty "Property Evaluation".

Spoilertarget "\u003e. Spoiler: The "Real Estate Appraiser Handbook" includes the following sections:

· The problem of information support for real estate assessment and ways to solve it.
· Collective expert assessments of the characteristics of the real estate market. Conceptual provisions.
· A project to create collective expert assessments of the characteristics of the real estate market - 2013.
· Additional comments in connection with issues that were often asked by the authors of the project.
· Representations of statistical results and their interpretation.
· Collective expert assessments of the characteristics of the real estate market. Discounts on bargaining.
· Collective expert assessments of corrective coefficients (adjustments). Short description.
· Low-class office and trading facilities.
· Low-class production and warehouse objects.
· Agricultural facilities.
· Class A business centers, V.
· Apartments.
· Residential buildings and cottages.

Volume 1: "Corrective coefficients for a comparative approach."
Cost of publication - 1600 rubles.

year 2014. Corrective coefficients for a comparative approach. The third edition (updated and expanded). 258С. ISBN 978-5-901956-79-3.

Volume 2:"Market characteristics and forecasts for an income approach."
Cost of publication - 900 rubles.

In the second volume of the directories, actualized information is given, which can be used in the implementation of the methods of an income approach in assessing real estate, including: data on operating expenses for various types of real estate, data for the degree of appropriateness of real estate objects when leased, which may be useful When forecast cash flows. The data on the profitability of real estate, gross rental multipliers are also given, the expected profit of the entrepreneur, which is commonly used to determine the discount rate within an income approach. In addition, the directory contains the parameters characterizing the expectations of market participants regarding the further price dynamics of various segments of the real estate market.

The main concept about the possibility of using collective expert estimates in the process of real estate estimation The market is formed not under the action of fundamental laws of nature (for example, the law of the world and the so-called strong interaction of elementary particles). The market and its characteristics (first of all, prices) are formed as a result of the interaction of sellers, buyers and other market participants based on their motivation, preferences, financial opportunities, expectations and risks, as well as the information they possess. Therefore, a direct way to obtain information on internal processes and market mechanisms is a survey of direct market participants. If the subjective opinions of various participants are united into one generalized opinion of hundreds of participants from dozens of different cities, it can be considered as a reflection of the objective state of the market. As some palliatives (instead of the survey of major market participants), a survey of professional appraisers, which are participants in market processes and acquaintances with the behavior of other market participants. In this survey, the opinion of various market participants represent appraisers who, by virtue of their profession, and simply experience experiences are better than others.

The goal of the project relying on individual expert assessments of appraisers who are endowing on the basis of professional knowledge, personal experience and intuition Own judgments regarding the parameters of the real estate market at the current time and in the foreseeable future, form collective expert assessments on the various characteristics of the real estate market.

Features of the second stage Expansion of the characteristics of the characteristics for which the collective expert opinion is formed expanding the geography of experts (55 cities) and the number of experts Expert opinions in the form of intervals differentiation of the characteristics of the market by the type of real estate Binding the parameters of real estate markets in the cities (13 cities are allocated for which a separate opinion is available ) Data operational processing (first results for a month) edition of the reference book with methods, recommendations and report samples

Collective expert assessments of the properties of the 2nd stage of the project 1 stage2 Stage The number of evaluator experts participating in the draft number of cities presented in the project 3155 Number of real estate market parameters defined as a result of an expert survey 4565

The studied characteristics of the market (three blocks of questions) General characteristics of the real estate market at the time of the study. The predictive characteristics of the real estate market. Waiting for market participants for the next year and for the next 5 years. The correction coefficients used to bring data on objects to the analogues to the assessment object.

Real Estate Market Parameters Discount on Uatrification% Entrepreneur Profit Exterior weardue to the crisis percentage of underloading discounts on the prices of office and trading facilities discount on rental rates of office and trading facilities discounts on the prices of production and warehouse facilities discount on rental rates of production and warehouse objects discounts on the prices of land plots under the IZhS discounts on land plots for multi-storey housing Building discounts on the prices of land plots for commercial objects discounts on the prices of land plots under production and warehousing Purpose Discounts on the prices of land plots of agricultural discounts on the prices of residential farm

Forecast of price dynamics in the real estate market expected average annual growth (+) or fall (-) for office and sales real estate,% per year in next year (2 sq.2010 - 2 sq.2011) in the next 5 years (2 sq.2011 - 2 sq.2016) expected average annual growth (+) or fall (-) for production and warehouse real estate prices,% in The year next year (2 sq.2010 - 2 sq.200g.) In the next 5 years (2 sq.2011 - 2 sq.2016) expected average annual growth (+) or fall (-) for residential real estate prices, % a year next year (2 sq.2010 - 2 sq.2011) in the next 5 years (2 sq.2011 - 2 sq.2016) Expected current yield of real estate class "C" and below for the next 5 years For office space for retail space for warehouses for industrial premises

The correction factors amendment to the floor, in relative units, the ratio of prices of office and trading areas located in the basement, to the prices of similar objects on the 1st floor, the attitude of rental rates of office-trading areas located in the basement, to rental rates of similar objects on the 1st The floor is the ratio of prices of office and retail space located in the base, to the prices of similar objects on the 1st floor, the attitude of rental rates of office and trading areas located in the basement, to rental rates of similar objects on the 1st floor, amendment to the floor, in relative units The ratio of prices of office and trading areas located in the basement, to the prices of similar objects on the 1st floor, the attitude of rental rates of office-trading areas located in the basement, to rental rates of similar objects on the 1st floor, the ratio of prices of office and retail space prices located in the basement, to the prices of similar objects on the 1st floor, the attitude of rental rates of office and trading space located in The base, to rental rates of similar objects on the 1st floor, the attitude of rental rates of office and trading facilities located on the second and above floors, to rental rates of similar objects on the 1st floor, the ratio of prices of production and warehouse objects located in the basement to prices Similar objects on the 1st floor The attitude of rental rates of production and warehouse objects located in the basement, to rental rates of similar objects on the 1st floor, the ratio of prices of production and warehouse objects located in the basement, to the prices of similar objects on the 1st floor Rental rates of production and warehouse objects located in the basement, to rental rates of similar objects on the 1st floor

Completion of the second phase of the project to participants (experts) of short reports with the results of processing Development of recommendations on the use of collective expert assessments of the market parameters during the estimation process Development of a fragment of an assessment report illustrating the possibility of using expert assessments in the report of the draft reference book with all materials - February 2011

What does the project implement? Information on the processes in the market, features in the regions, trends, about what the market thinks about all this. Allows the appraisers to rely on the overall view of the evaluation community. It helps the appraiser and protects it. Limits unscrupulous appraisers in the possibilities of manipulating the parameters used in the assessment (according to the expert opinion of the appraiser ...).

"Informational support for real estate assessment. Collective expert assessments of the characteristics of the real estate market "

Whatever approaches and methods have been used in assessing the property, the necessary accuracy and reliability of the resulting assessment cannot be provided without adequate market information. This indisputable fact has repeatedly noted in the literature on the assessment and in international standards. Unlike the Western appraiser, the services of which have many information and analytical services supplying it the required information, the Russian appraiser is not provided with information in the required amount. If primary information can still be obtained from the periodic publications and resources of the Internet, then with integrated characteristics (generalized characteristics of the market, correctional coefficients, etc.), which are the result of the analysis and processing of primary information, and which are necessary in the process of evaluation procedures, things are significantly worse. The lack of necessary standardized information, on the one hand, creates the soil to obtain an unscrupulous appraiser of any magnitude of the market value. On the other hand, the lack of adequate information makes it impossible to a conscientious appraiser, submit objective and indisputable evidence of the estimates fulfilled them, which would be convincing for the opponent. At least, the competent opponent in most reports, including those fulfilled by a conscientious and qualified appraiser, will find provisions that in conditions of information deficit cannot be strictly justified. Therefore, the situation today in the Russian assessment is close to a dead end, and, if now, do not take real measures to create a system of information support, then the appraisers are waiting for difficult times.

^ The structure of information used by the appraiser

All information that is used in the evaluation process can be divided into two groups:

Internal information, related Estimation Object. If real estate is estimated, then this group includes data on its specifications, condition, need to repair, etc. For business - this is data on the financial activity of the company's assessment, on the state of assets, etc. The main problems in terms of the use of this information lie in the field of reference accountingnot reflecting, most often, the real state of affairs in the enterprise. These and other problems relating to the quality of internal information will be solved as we move to more transparency of companies, the introduction of management accounting budgeting, as well as the transition to more progressive forms. accounting reporting And, above all, at IFRS.

^ External information. As noted in international standards, all approaches lead to market value if they are based on market data. Therefore, without information reflecting the situation in the market of such objects, the market value assessment cannot be objective. In accordance with generally accepted methods, the appraiser works like with primary data, for example, with prices of transactions of comparable objects and with integrated market characteristics, for example, correction coefficients providing "bringing" comparable facilities to the estimated.

^ Primary information ( sales of comparable objects, rental rates, financial characteristics of specific companies, etc.) is the most important factor in the accuracy and accuracy of assessing the problem using such information well known. Not only on transactions with real estate objects, but even on transactions with large companies, data is not published. Instead of information on prices of accomplished transactions, the appraiser has at its disposal a lot of sources, including the resources of the Internet, which publishes the prices of offers. Of course, such information does not give a full-fledged picture of market prices. However, recently, sediments have been made in the direction of creating a database at real transactions. In particular, work on monitoring real transactions has begun in Nizhny Novgorod. And, although this base does not fully ensure fully requests for real estate appraisers, we can assume that the beginning is allowed, and soon the appraiser will be provided with good quality information.

^ Integrated Information based on the results of processing primary information. It includes correction coefficients for "bringing" data on comparable real estate objects - location amendments, the presence / absence of repair, a large-scale factor, amendments to a limited market or low liquidity, the share of land in the value of a single real estate object, etc.

For business, integrated information may include different multiplers, the average ratios between their own and borrowed capital, the value of profitability characteristic of the industry, etc.

Unfortunately, there is not sufficient experience of Russian assessment and, to an even greater extent, insufficient attention of this problem led to the fact that the Russian appraiser does not have all the necessary integrated information. Under these conditions, it is forced to solve the problem of lack of lack of necessary information In their ways, which, most often, with serious consideration, do not withstand any criticism.

Consider what options for solving issues of assessment in the absence of necessary information gives an assessment practice.

"Simple" options for solving data shortage

The absence of the necessary data with which the Russian appraiser is constantly facing, he often tries to compensate for "simple" solutions to the problem. Below are the most common options that, despite their obvious failure, was distributed in the appraisal practice.

Approvals based on subjective appraiser reasoning.

An example of "simple solutions" of this type is the calculation of the discount rate based on a cumulative approach. As is known, the discount rate with this approach is calculated as the sum of the risk-free profitability and the amount of risks associated with risks. At the same time, all components of premiums are usually taken on the basis of general reasoning, based on which the numerical values \u200b\u200bof the award for various risks are derived. Obviously, with the help of the appropriate "justification" it is possible to easily obtain any value of the discount rate and, accordingly, the magnitude of the market value. Note that the use of such an approach Western appraisers relies on numerous research of factors affecting the numerical value of the awards. The results of such studies are widely covered in open print and in the Internet. These publications allow for some extent (although not completely) to overcome the invasion of the assessment due to a significant contribution to the subjective component in such a method. It is appropriate to note here that the subjective component in some extent is inevitably present in the evaluation process. However, if it is defining for the numerical value of the assessment, then it is not necessary to talk about objectivity of such an assessment. It is obvious that the assessment based on the initial data thus obtained gives ample opportunities to manipulate the result.

An even less convincing assessment report looks like assessment type: "According to the appraiser, a correction factor should be introduced ... (numerical value is given)", "on the basis of research conducted by the appraiser, we will take an amendment equal to ...". Even if such assertions are preceded by qualitative reasoning on risk factors, such an assessment most often has nothing to do with an objective state, but reflects the desire to apply to a specific result. However, in fairness, we note that such assessments are most often not accepted by regulatory authorities and expert councils.

More convincing for regulatory authorities and expert tips looks like a reference to oral information received from specialists. For example, when calculating the amendments in real estate assessment, within the framework of the comparative approach, it is often sufficient to refer to the real estate company: "According to real estate companies, the correction coefficient is equal to ...". The seeming conviction makes an indication of the phone and the address of the real estate company. It is difficult to understand why the opinion of real players who do not engage in analytics of the market and in no way responsible for the result of the assessment should be more trusted than the opinion of the specialist - an appraiser. Nevertheless, the analysis of various reports shows that such "justifications" in the reports are available.

The coefficients and parameters taken from foreign sources.

Externally, it seems more reasonable to use coefficients and parameters taken from foreign sources. For example, when assessing a business, a coefficient characterizes the ratio of own and borrowed funds is required to calculate the WACC. In well-known methodological developments Very respected companies are invited to use coefficients from foreign sources. Similarly, the values \u200b\u200bof discounts on the lack of control and low liquidity in the assessment of shares are justified. Of course, the data given in articles, books, on the sites of famous information agencies, are usually the result of real research and deserve confidence. But whether it is necessary to explain that today the Russian market does not correspond to the parameters of Western markets, and such parameters and coefficients do not reflect the realities of the Russian market.

Measuring rates based on small sample.

Wide distribution in the evaluation practice was received by the method of paired sales, which ensures the receipt of corrective coefficients. If you eliminate obviously incorrect data processing methods, the problem is reduced to a large scattering of the estimated coefficient. The fact is that observations at prices Even inside the homogeneous sample usually form a large scatter due to the most statistical nature of the prices in the market.

With the correct use of the pair sales method, the appraiser forms selective values \u200b\u200bof corrective coefficients representing the observation ratio of two independent samples. In this case, the coefficient of variation (the standard deviation of coefficients expressed in relative units (as a percentage) relative to the average value) is approximately greater than the coefficient of variation for the primary sample. And the quasi-borne sample formed after adjustments, used directly to estimate the market value, will already be
times have a larger coefficient of variation than the corresponding homogeneous sample. Thus, on the one hand, the pair sales method allows you to expand the sampling source to evaluate, on the other - it increases the dispersion in it by using correction coefficients calculated with the big error.

This is especially manifested for the market segments characterized by low liquidity, the dispersion of the results is very large. In this case, the assessment of the market value of such objects with the calculation of the correction coefficients for a small sample leads to unacceptably large errors and the expansion of the sample due to the "given" data in this case reduces the accuracy of the final assessment. These problems are largely removed if the calculations of the correction coefficients are performed on the basis of sufficient samples (50 to 100 values) and when using special methods of statistical analysis based on robust (i.e., resistant to interference) procedures.

Regression dependencies based on a small sample

As an example of such an approach, we consider the construction of a regression dependence of the price of the object from the pricing factor (or several factors - multiple regression). For example, the influence of a large-scale factor or factor of remoteness from the center in the assessment of commercial real estate. This approach in the general case cannot cause objections. However, the effect of so-called latent (uncontrolled) factors leads to the inevitable erosion of such dependencies, which is reflected in the fact that the determination coefficient (known R-square) takes sufficiently small values \u200b\u200b(0.2-0.5). In itself, the low value of the determination coefficient is not an obstacle to the use of correction coefficients. However, under these conditions, to ensure the statistically significant values \u200b\u200bof the parameters of the regression dependence (correction coefficients) require sufficiently large amounts of source data. It can be shown that the minimum required amount of data on regression in 2-3 factors should be at least 25. If the price values \u200b\u200bof 5-10 objects are used, the received amendments cannot be recognized by correct, which is easy to make sure if you do Check using statistical tests (for example, Student test or F-square). In addition, regression curves obtained in this way are very sensitive to separate sample values. therefore regression based on a small amount of data, like previous options, gives the basis for manipulating with the results on the background of apparent validity.

Attention should be paid to a very common misconception among the appraisers using multiple regression methods. Often, the appraisers increase the amount of pricing factors of the parameters of regression dependence, erroneously believing that the accuracy of the assessment increases. This error is based on the well-known fact that with an increase in the dimension of the parameters of the residue parameters on average decrease. This, however, is not a sign of increasing accuracy. Moreover, as shown in the regression analysis publications, an unjustified increase in the number of parameters (regressors) can lead to a decrease in accuracy.

Thus used in the practice of assessing methods for processing small volume statistical information (small sample), with serious consideration, serious objections cause serious objections and, most often, can be considered unreliable if a professional will be in the field of statistical estimation theory as an opponent.

Therefore, even the most conscientious and qualified appraiser, working in conditions of lack of information, is threatened by the recognition of the report to be unreliable with all the consequences arising from here.

^ Output

Experience of Western countries, where evaluation has existed for a long time, shows that the necessary information Support For evaluation activities, specialized information and analytical agencies are created within special analytical research. Any appraiser has the ability to obtain all the parameters that characterize the market.

Recently, various studies have emerged in Russian publications aimed at creating such collateral in the Russian market. and etc.). The continuation and development of such studies, with the publication of integrated (consolidated) data in information sources available for appraisers, is the only real output strategy from an information impasse and creating conditions for the implementation of an objective and civilized assessment.

The main source of information about the market are data on transactions or in the absence of data on the pricing prices of objects. These data allow us to assess the state of the market, establish the effect of value parameters of real estate objects for their cost, see the trends in the market and expectations of the participants. It should be immediately noted that information about sales prices are priority, and therefore we share the opinion of all who believe that the collection of statistics, market monitoring, all kinds of research on the influence of various properties of real estate objects on their market value are necessary.

However, there is another source of information about the market. The fact is that the state, mood and market expectations is determined complex interaction All market participants and, above all, sellers and buyers. The financial capabilities of the participants, their motivation in making decisions regarding the sale / purchase of real estate and, finally, their expectations are a driving force that determines the price of the market at the moment and their dynamics for a predictable future. Therefore, information received directly from market participants can help make the right judgments regarding the value of real estate objects or at least understand how certain factors in the minds of people affect their cost. It is the market participants that establish their attitude towards objects with various value characteristics, and in this sense, for example, the dependence of the market value of the office space from the floor is a subjective magnitude. At the same time, the market prices are formed as a result of the interaction of the subjective opinions of many market participants. Therefore, market value reflects the collective opinion of market participants. Thus, the specific characteristics of the real estate market have a subjective nature, since they reflect the opinions of individual subjects. On the other hand, these characteristics are the results of the interaction of a large number of such subjects, and therefore are objective.

Ideally, a complete picture of the market could be recreated if it were possible to interview all market participants. Further, having all information, you can define some common characteristics reflecting the overall state of the real estate market and all the required characteristics.

However, the practical implementation of the idea of \u200b\u200bcollecting data directly from market participants is faced with fundamental difficulties on the path of its practical implementation. Therefore, you should look for ways to ensure its implementation in practice.

The first step in this direction is to replace the main participants in the market by specialists - appraisers who communicate with market participants, both with direct contact and by acquaintance with suggestions published in various media. Thus, each appraiser based on personal knowledge and processing large amounts of information about the market, produces its opinion, which it can formulate in the right form. Of course, all people are different from the efficiency of information. Therefore, people, based even on the same experience, have differing judgments regarding certain parameters. To reduce the value of the subjective component characteristic of each appraiser, we have implemented a project to form collective expert assessments of real estate market parameters.

As part of this project, appraisers regarding the parameters of the market were collected, were analyzed, processed and in accordance with the rules and methods of expert assessment and formed collective expert assessments on the parameters necessary for appraisers reflecting the opinion of a large number of professional appraisers from various cities and constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Below is information on the implementation of the second phase of this project.

^ Brief information about the project on the formation of collective expert assessments of real estate market parameters

Project participants

The problem of selection of experts for the formation of a collective expert opinion is one of the most difficult and responsible. When conducting the first stage of the project, we invited professional real estate appraisers as experts. We proceeded from the fact that their evaluation work experience, the constant study (monitoring) of the market and analytical approach to the analysis of market processes allow you to best form an idea of \u200b\u200bthe parameters of the market, and the union of the views of various appraisers to level the individual features of each of them. It should be noted that in the process of discussion on the portal Labrete.ru, opinions were expressed that as experts should be invited by direct operators of the real estate market - employees of real estate companies. However, attempts to collect the necessary information on the real estate market were convinced that real estate realkets were not ready to submit a generalized opinion on the state of the real estate market. In addition, not being interested in the results of such work, they will not provide the market coverage required for research.

Thus, as in the first stage, professional appraisers who have experience in assessing property are participating as experts in the project. The survey of experts was carried out through questionnaire with a standard set of questions. At the same time, however, the range of issues formulated in the questionnaire, compared with the first stage, was significantly expanded. We present comparative data on the main characteristics of the expert survey.

In total, 206 professional appraisers from 55 cities of the Russian Federation took part in the project: from Kaliningrad to South Sakhalinsk and Petropavlovsk Kamchatsky, from Novorossiysk to Murmansk, as well as the cities of Ukraine (Kiev, Sevastopol). Comparative data of the first and second phase are shown in the table.

Below is a list of cities for which at least 6 questionnaires was obtained.

One of the most important issues is the question of the nature of the information collected. Depending on the questions supplied in the questionnaire, experts can provide information as in the form of point estimates and in the form of intervals.

Interval expert assessments are a new promising direction in the theory and practice of expert assessments, which only begins to develop. When using the method of interval expert estimates, instead of estimating the indicator or characteristic of the object, the expert indicates the interval in which the characteristic estimated to them is contained. As noted in the report, made on the basis of more than twenty-year-old experience of the Commission "Expert Assessments" of the Scientific Council of the USSR Academy of Sciences on the integrated problem "Cybernetics", the estimation of the interval is more natural for the expert than estimated by the number. And indeed, our experience in seminars in various cities, including survey of students, which at the same time performed expert functions, convinces that, for example, to specify the range of predicted values \u200b\u200bof the expected growth rate for the appraiser easier and clearer than to specify the only value of the required parameter. Therefore, we considered it appropriate, along with traditional schemes, use the method of interval expert assessments. Here, however, it should be noted that the processing of such data does not boil down to traditional statistical methods, and needs special procedures for analyzing interval data, which have recently just begun to develop.

Features 2 Stage Stage

1. As experts in our survey, as well as at the first stage, practitioners participated from among those who systematically meet, primarily through the Internet resources, with new assessment development. Although the appraisers themselves are not directly involved in transactions, it seems to us that they constantly working with assessment orders, due to the analytical nature of such work, are more capable of generalizations regarding market processes than other market participants. The correctness and effectiveness of this choice were confirmed by the results of the survey when implementing the first stage of the project. Therefore, we counted it appropriate to maintain the principle of formation of a group of experts and invited to participate in the survey as experts of professional appraisers.

2. 210 appraisers - representatives of 52 cities of the Russian Federation (at the first stage of 100 estimators from 31 cities) took part in studies of the second stage), which made it possible to expand the geography of our research and make a more complete picture of the characteristics of the market of the entire territory of Russia. One of the objectives of the study was to identify the dependence of the values \u200b\u200bof the estimated parameters from the characteristics of the subject of the Federation (the number of cities and income of the population), since these characteristics are an important pricing factor. The amount of data obtained at the second stage made it possible to carry out such a study.

3. The principal is the form of representing the opinions of experts. Having studied the experience of the first stage, we considered it necessary to abandon the traditional approach, when in the process of the survey, the point values \u200b\u200bof the required market characteristics restrictive to the expert require the requirement to specify one value, we put it in a predicable position when it must select one value from the set that it used on practice. Therefore, in questionnaire questionnaires for all three blocks of questions, it was proposed to indicate the interval in which, according to the expert, a declared parameter should be (for example, a discount for the rationing).

4. Since the source data on the results of the expert survey are interval values, data processing is carried out using traditional other interval analysis procedures. In particular, an interval of values \u200b\u200bwas used as a result of processing, which is the intersection of starting intervals. In other words, the interval received in our study shows the range of values \u200b\u200brepresenting the intersection of intervals from the expert survey proposed by each participant. If this interval exists, it can be considered as a consensus, since it includes the opinion of all experts. However, since with 200 survey participants, the interval representing the intersection of all 200 intervals is most often narrowed to zero, we exclude a part of the values. In some sense, the initial interval obtained on an incomplete set, the resulting interval of values \u200b\u200bcharacterizes the approximate consensus. And the proportion of experts (the number of experts attributed to the total number of survey participants, whose opinion is involved in the formation of the interval obtained), in some sense can be considered probability. At the same time, however, it should be understood that this interval is fundamentally different from the confidence interval, which represents an area in which a given probability (which is called confidence in this case) is the value of the estimated parameter.

5. Unlike processing at the first stage, primary data processing at the second stage was carried out according to the standard scheme for calculating point estimates and confidence intervals.

Currently, the results are processed. The final materials will be published.

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