Actively and fun to shoot the game "Dangerous weapons". How clear from ...
O. Beschkova: Good evening, this is the "Cover-2" program, as always, we are on the air discussing topics that seem most important for foreign weekly. Today we will talk about whether war is possible in the Middle East, because the news come this time with the borders of Turkey and Syria - there are strange exchanges to blows. Immediately I will present guests - Nordun Haggioglu, Mazen Abbas and Yevgeny Satanovsky.
Today another message has come - Turkish artillery again opened a response fire, from where the city of Akchekhalla was fired from, a projectile, released from the territory of Syria, exploded on the Syrian-Turkish border. He got into the garden of one of the local agricultural vehicles, no victims and victims, but over the past two days it is already the 4th case of entering the Turkish territory of the projectile from the Syrian territory. We ask Nordun to explain what this place is.
N. Hajioglu: If we talk about the village of Akchekale, this localityIn direct proximity, even borders the transition point in Syria, a small settlement, residents of no more than 10 thousand people. Why do these shells come there? - deep into the territory of Syria approximately 10 kilometers from the border, according to journalistic information - there are battles between the Syrian authorities and the opposition, and according to the Syrian government, they arrive randomly. The first shell was explained by the randomness, it was assumed that there would be no accidents, but after a few hours, on the same day, in the evening, the second projectile was also hit the city, and also the Turkish artillery gave an answer to this incident . By the way, they are no longer 4, but five cases.
The application was made long ago, after the shot, fallen - I do not know how to name, the P-4 intelligence aircraft, it was at the beginning of the summer, 3-4 months passed, after this incident Turkey stated that in the future it would adequately react and apologize Notes to consider this question will no longer be.
O. Borchkova: Still by chance, or not by chance? How are this commenting in Turkey?
N. Hajioglu: If it were so accidentally, the Turkish government would certainly respond as it reacts today - it would not fry in response. First, let's say the following - in whose house Bardak? Bardak in Syria. If someone drank 10 bottles of vodka on the top floor and rosyrite, the first thing you do? - Call the police, the police will arrive, asked once - what are you doing? If a pensioner lives under them, he will sit quietly, and if athlete will be under them, he will rise and give a row in the face. Approximately this way can be explained.
O. Borchkova: Evgeny, what is confused by?
E. Satanovsky: Since I am not Syrian and not the Turks, I do not bother me at all, and whether the war will be between these two states, or it will cost border incidents - this is absolutely not a Russian problem - we are not there, and thank God. The fact that this is definitely an accident is clear: serious operations are not started, nor the Turkish army, nor Syrian. And with that on the other hand, professionals are sitting in the armies, not only Turkey, but also Syria is pumped out. But continuing the beautiful metaphor of colleagues, I would like to note that when you start a civil war in the country, we pay for it, we will translate militants, supply weapons and play one of the most active roles in inciting this very civil war, breaking through corridors for militants, which concentrate and Train in its territory.
O. Borchkova: territory of Turkey.
E. Satanovsky: Absolutely accurately. At the same time, telling all the fairy tales that Turkish foreign policy is zero problems of neighbors - it has long been not zero, there are already few neighbors with which Turkey has not large or small problems. It should not be assumed that this activity, ultimately, including maintaining the state of the civil war in border areas, will not be transferred to the territory of the country that supports the militant - including radical Islamists.
It is clear that Emirate of Qatar and Saudi Arabia, who play the main role here is perhaps more important than Turkey, far. And Turkey state neighboring. And it is clear that there are no battles on the Qatar or Saudi border, and Turkey, unfortunately, pays for Erdogan's policies - they pay innocent people.
O. Borchkova: Do you think the policy should be?
E. Satanovsky: This is absolutely not my business - I am not a Turkish voter for the party "Justice and Development", I do not give them advice.
O. Borchkova: I do not ask you to give advice. I ask how you interpret this policy as an observer.
E. Satanovsky: Turkey climbed the most thoroughly in the war in Syria as one of its main initiators initiators - a sideline of an overview observer, which is surprised that what happens.
O. Borchkova: Why does she need it?
E. Satanovsky: And it is necessary to ask the guide in Ankara. Greater-containing ambitions, a new Ottoman port, the idea that Erdogan is about to become the president of the new presidential republic, and his time is not enough - severe cancer. Therefore, we observed a sharp attitude of Turkey with Israel - after the flotilla, "Many Turkey made Libya. Therefore, visa-free regime with Libya and Syria, by the way, the conversation about creating some "Middle East fraternity" under the leadership of Turkey, ended with overall and Lynch Gaddafi, after which the confidence in Turkey and its politics in Syria is less than zero. Especially since Syria receives everything from Turkey directly, as one of the three main antsyry players.
At the same time, from my point of view, of course, the incident is random, because nobody wants in Turkey, nor in Syria for a large war between them. And maybe try to avoid it.
N. Hajioglu: I categorically disagree with this. Because besides the unsconsidations, I can not accept these your statements.
E. Satanovsky: Read the sources, including the places of concentration of militants.
N. Gaggoglu: I'm guided by what I know - that I saw and what I understand. If someone says so unfounded, without catching someone for the ear, I do not accept this.
E. Satanovsky: Turkey does not hide it.
N. Gaggoglu: I have to see it.
E. Satanovsky: Then it is necessary to sit on the border with Syria.
N. Hajioglu: But it's about a friend. You say that Turkey has unleashed this war.
E. Satanovsky: No, Qatar and Saudi Arabia unleashed.
N. Hajioglu: It started 19 months ago, when the Syrian government, namely, their special services, raised the weapons to a regular wedding, were killed by three people who were spoken against the regime at this wedding - this is the beginning. Why this did not happen in Sweden when Breivik killed 70 people.
E. Satanovsky: How many Turks killed?
O. Borchkova: No, you should not leave the other way.
M.Abbas: Of course, many Russian analysts love geopolitics very much and forget that in Syria, the rams live, but people. 19 months ago there peaceful demonstrators were killed. Yes, Turkey is to blame for 100 thousand refugees, and no one helped the Turks to provide these people. And now we start talking about geopolitical conspiracy and world war, which will be due to the fact that some poor people in Syria tried to get freedom, and intervened in this and Russia, Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia - all intervened.
We do not see this picture in Russia, for some reason Russian analysts do not see this picture, and they always try to accuse the revolution that they are terrorists. What is happening are terrorist attacks. They do not see that Assad's regime is trying to provoke - from the very beginning, in May last year, sent peaceful, no armed people, in the direction of Israel - of which 38 were killed, and the reaction was clear: people tried to move the border. Do you know about this case?
E. Satanovsky: But what about.
M.Abbas: This is not a provocation from the Syrians? Provocation. When the former minister by agreement with the head of Syria's special services prepared an explosion among Christians and Muslims to provoke them to a religious war in Lebanon. This man is arrested, there is even a court that makes a decision on his fate. So it can be seen - the mode is trying to organize provocations to save themselves from the people.
E. Satanovsky: The main provocation of the week is the statement of the Al-Arabia channel, which you imagine ...
M.Abbas: I can not imagine the channel, I work as a correspondent.
E. Satanovsky: especially. The fact that the Turkish pilots who died after a reconnaissance aircraft was shot down, Russian prisoners of war were shot.
M.Abbas: Nothing like this - these documents were represented by the opposition. And in this document what you say was not.
E. Satanovsky: Excellent. You can lie indefinitely for a long time. Your canal, as well as Al-Jazeera, incites civil war.
M.Abbas: I do not know where you take this information and start telling that it is also true.
E. Satanovsky: We also know about the anti-Russian activities of the Al-Arabia channel and that you play one of the main, provocative roles - absolutely accurately. And about travelers, which and Al-Jazeera and Al-Arabia play in the civil war playing.
O. Borchkova: Let's not blame neither channels nor journalists. Mazen Abbas is not personally involved in falsifications.
E. Satanovsky: Mazen Abbas works on this channel in Russia. This channel produced in Russia last week a sensation - the ether was riveted from questions of journalists and diplomats on the topic of the false information that the Russian Foreign Ministry was clear exactly.
O. Borchkova: It does not seem to me that Mazen Abbas should now be responsible for the truth or presence of this information.
E. Satanovsky: Of course, he will not answer for them, that's for sure. But the question of who there is a provocateur, frankly, is quite meaningless, because the whole "Arab Spring" - big game According to the polls of the Middle East and the creation of a caliphate in front of the great war of Arabian monarchies with Iran, in which, of course, Syria and an ally of Iran and at the same time rule Alawita there, they generally from the Salafi point of view of heretics, they must be overthrown. Not by chance, Zavagiri, the head of Al-Qaida, announced Jihad.
N. Gajioglu: He announced it 15 years ago.
E. Satanovsky: He announced him after that. Therefore, when you start telling the reverent stories about peaceful people ...
N. Hajioglu: And you do not like it.
E. Satanovsky: I like objectivity and truth, not a lie.
N. Hajioglu: If you do not need about peaceful people, then I do not know what it is worth it.
E. Satanovsky: In Egypt, they represent a country that has successfully betrayed their president within the framework of what you call the "revolution", and in Russia they are often called "Smutow".
O. Borchkova: Russia is also called differently.
M.Abbas: Russia against that there was democracy in some Arab country.
E. Satanovsky: Yes, for God's sake, cut each other within the framework of democracy in the Arab country. O. Borchkova: Eugene, I ask you again - do not say "Cut each other."
E. Satanovsky: Can I say what I want? You may not call me, I can get up and leave, but it will not be able to stop me anyone - neither the Arabs nor the Turks.
O. Borchkova: Let's still stick to some rules. We are discussing the situation here. As far as I understand, each of you in this situation is an observer, aware of this or the other side of this story. Therefore, to say "You cut each other" - not very correct.
E. Satanovsky: And it seems to me that if I'm trying to take a pont, as it is called in Russia, about why we are against democracy, I repeat once again - democracy in the Arab world is the right of most to cut and smalle the minority, making it the most Ingorically. Lince the one who has managed the country yesterday and made this country the country.
M.Abbas: Is it not racism to evaluate the Arabs in this way?
E. Satanovsky: No. Those people who flee from this democracy are also Arabs, many people saved.
M.Abbas: Tell me who runs? Do you have more information than me?
E. Satanovsky: You have information, another thing is that you work on the channel, where it is not customary to give honest and objective information.
M.Abbas: Canal is not a party duty.
E. Satanovsky: And who knows? Payroll pay. A quarter of a million Copts did you not run from the country only over the last end of the year?
M.ABBAS: You speak over the past 5 years.
E. Satanovsky: I'm talking about the last autumn.
M.Abbas: Your information is completely incorrect.
E. Satanovsky: Excellent. So talked. From the journalist Al-Arabia what to expect?
M.Abbas: from Mr. Satanovsky, Institute of the Middle East, the main defender of Israel - what to expect?
O. Borchkova: I apologize. Let's go back to the topic, we will not seem to be explained, which. After the ether. Let's go back to the topic of Turkey and Syria. Still, what is happening now in this place, aqualet - this is not a place where the refugee camps are located.
N. Hajioglu: This is the old town of Turkey.
O. Borchkova: It was logical to assume that there are refugee camps from Syria in Turkey, there are many of them, and people there are different - these are refugees, militants, military, some special services, is a difficult story.
N. Hajioglu: No, we are talking about a Turkish village, where there are currently refugees from Syria. This is a purely old settlement, it is not associated with refugees.
O. Borchkova: You can assume to whom it can be needed? The simplest explanation is the opposition.
N. Hajioglu: I want a little different approach to this issue. I would say that there is the following: in a nearby country, one way or another, conflict - some of him call the power fighting with the opposition, someone calls the internal civil war. It is necessary to proceed from the fact that clashes occur in Syria. I do not say - let's go to Turkey to take care of the patronage and will regulate the situation. Very simple - in the same lineup 6 months ago sat and discussed what would happen, what has changed from that day? Absolutely nothing. What happened? Two meetings of the UN Security Council, the International Conference in Geneva, "nothing has changed again. Well, since you think that Turkey is a country that cannot be trusted to regulate security on the Syrian border, then there is a UN item that provides for the departure of the blue casak. But even this can not be accepted by the owls, who talk to each other about the way Mr. Satanovsky speaks with us. What to do in this position? So, again everything rests on the UN Security Council, which seemed to have declared himself responsible for this situation, and on the other hand, does not fulfill this responsibility. How to be who will regulate this provision so that Syrian shells do not fall into Turkish territory.
E. Satanovsky: The question is - who will regulate the situation so that the militants do not concentrate on the Turkish territory and the American, French special services did not train them, so that the Islamists did not translate from Libya.
N. Hajioglu: Again. Suppose, ran away by the Syrian general - came ran to Turkey, what will you do? Take the epaulets?
E. Satanovsky: And you are not right - a lot has changed. First, Baghdad refused to extend the agreement on Hussein on Hussein on the possibility of the Turkish army legally, with the permission of the Iraqi side, to act against the Kurdish militants in the border areas of Iraq.
N. Hajioglu: If we are now and talk about Iraq ...
E. Satanovsky: It happened back. Secondly, Iraq is on the verge of a complete breaking of cooperation with Turkey on Kurdish terrorists. And this is the result of exactly the activity of the Turkish side in the Syrian civil conflict. Therefore, a lot happened. And this war, of course, will not be good for anyone - there is no doubt if the Turkish army will hit Syria seriously, probably will defeat Syria, but the victory will be Pyrrho, including for Turkey.
O. Borchkova: We take a break on the news and return to the studio.
O. Borchkova: We continue the program. We are talking about whether the war will be in the Middle East. Now we have heard the next news from the borders of Syria and Turkey - today again there was a retaliatory blow to the Turkish artillery for a shell, which flew by chance or not by chance from the Syrian side. It is really proven that the shell arrive from the Assad's troops. Anne Opposition, or do they have such arms?
N. Hajioglu: I can repeat the statement by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkey, made yesterday: "Turkish military experts investigated a projectile, and it was found that it was an instrument of type D-30, which is in service with the Syrian army." On this Turkish statement ends. Of course, it can be assumed that this is an instrument of the Syrian Ministry of Defense or assume that the opposition captured this weapon - you can and so assume. But the fact is a fact - the projectile was released from the gun, which belongs to the 6th Syrian army.
O. Borchkova: Evgeny Satanovsky rightly said - there will be nothing good if a more serious conflict breaks out.
N. Gaggoglu: I agree. Who would like war?
O. Borchkova: But if you assume hypothetically, that it still happens, what could be? This shifts, for example, with a dead point, the situation with the Syrian civil war - they have been in a state of unstable equilibrium for several months, and it can continue long enough.
M.Abbas: Let's see - if there is a war, who will be a supporter, and who is an opponent of this war. Who really needs this war, and who is against?
O. Borchkov: Who has a care.
M.Abbas: Yes. And it determines the geopolitical picture. I believe that, first of all, of course, Turkey has no interest to fight against Syria, because the Turks have several problems - not only refugees and military who escaped from the army. There are still Kurds, which Syrian regime professionally uses against Turkey, and it started during the father of Assad, Bashar. Therefore, not interested in Nor Turkey nor Jordan, I think that Israel does not support mess in the region. The participation of Americans in the Syrian problem is only applications, good words, support for human freedom, and that's it. The only one who needs this war is to regime, because it should combine his strength against some kind of enemy to stop the revolutionary process that goes in Syria.
E. Satanovsky: I would say that it is with a right move, because we expect the Assad regime, which on the verge of survival needs a war, knowing what Syrian armed forces are ...
O. Borchkova: That is, for Assad actually the second front opens?
E. Satanovsky: No, this is not the second front of the war with Turkey it is not a civil war. And I will try to say more fair words - what's the difference who shot in Turkey from the point of view of the Turkish military command and from the point of view of the country's political leadership? It was not one projectile for the territory of Turkey. Actually, these people receive a salary for such things to be happening - at least completely unimportant who has released the projectile. The region, from where this rocket flew, should be answered by the same Turkish artillery, which happened - this is exactly the duty of the Turkish armed forces, for this they are held there. Turkey not so long ago, at the beginning of the 20th century, tested the hardest blow when she was trying to dismember the Western powers, and most of its modern neighbors, at least the countries of the Arab world, these were the former Turkish leotors, which were postponed from the Turkish Empire and did not enter Turkish Republic of Ataturk. Therefore, people fulfill their duties.
The trouble is that there is no theory here. You may not want war - no one wanted the First World War. But the situation may be so that you cannot avoid war, even if it is fatally over for all warring parties.
In this regard, it's still, since the Turkish, and the Syrian leadership understand the situation and indeed, with anyone or on the other side - despite all statements and a cold war against Syria, in which Turkey is involved - from my point of view, - Hot war - this should happen something incredible and want to hope that this will not happen.
M.Abbas: Do you think that Turkey should solve the problems that are imposed on to Syria, or is it a problem of the international, international community?
E. Satanovsky: I am a very low opinion about the international community. I suppose the UN's empty copies of bureaucrats, which throughout generations eat abundant salaries and travel, but in no case, including peacekeeping, I am closely followed by peacekeepers, I observe almost all missions - nothing useful is not done.
The point is not that Turkey cannot and should not count on supporting the international community in the event of aggression against its territory. And the fact that even NATO block, who has a relevant article, has not decided to use this article and, accordingly, Turkey today is alone. To assume that she will be alone tomorrow and the day after tomorrow - not even talk about the UN, about NATO. Because the Libyan campaign has exhausted NATO reserves, both high-precision ammunition and financially, because Obama has a presidential campaign, he is a laureate of the Nobel Prize of the world and he is not Bush. Turkey remained one on one with her problems - this is a fact.
N. Hajioglu: Then why do you mind Turkey to solve your problems?
E. Satanovsky: I just said that not only I do not mind, but I understand the duty fine.
M.Abbas: Who will force Assad to the world?
E. Satanovsky: If Turkey decides on this, it is unlikely that anyone will condemn, but it will be all the responsibility of the Turkish leadership. In the end, Turkey is too serious international politics player, so that any condemnation or disadvantage of Turkey played for the Turkish leadership some role. When Qatari Emir says something about the time it is time to overthrow the Arabic forces Syrian regime, then we immediately call that Qatar is called a "barking mouse". When and if Turkey takes such a decision - so sorry, one of the great powers of another 19th century. And it is quite possible, one of the great powers of the future, 21-22 centuries, - for God's sake.
N. Hajioglu: Sorry, we are not talking about the magnitude of the state, we are talking about actions.
E. Satanovsky: The Great Power is not size.
O. Borchkova: How big is Turkey's readiness to go to this story? What could be options?
N. Hajioglu: I can ask how to answer - she can go far as much as the situation is forced.
M.ABBAS: It is generally accepted for Turkey is generally very difficult. Let's think about the internal factors. We have the Kurds who are fighting - this is not just an opposition, but they receive very much support for the Syrian regime, we have Turks-Alawitis, who live on the border - this is also a destruction factor. And the war itself is a fracture factor. It is not so easy to make such a decision. But on the other hand, we saw the first blow from the Syrian regime when he apologized and said that it would not happen again - but repeated.
E. Satanovsky: If we assume that this is the mode.
M.Abbas: I suggested a solution - enter the "blue helmets", then there will be no doubt that this is a weapon or whose shell is.
E. Satanovsky: What are you, when and where "blue helmets" ...
M.ABBAS: Then you will be satisfied - whose weapons.
E. Satanovsky: In no case will not for the reason that the "blue helmets" is the United Nations Organization, this is one of the most useless and expensive JULAN adventures of the UN.
O. Borchkova: But it worked in the Balkans.
E. Satanovsky: did not work. Very much depended on whether there was a contingent.
O. Borchkova: Nevertheless, between got up.
E. Satanovsky: If you take on average - who got up, and who did not get up, and what was the role when they cleaned the "blue helmets" from the path of the columns that went to the genocide - there was a lot and of this. In South Lebanon, the situation is absolutely failed, and many where. Therefore, no "blue helmets" - Kravte who you want, - in this case, no role will play. The Turkish army is definitely one of the most professional in the world. And if its guide will make an appropriate decision, consistent, or politically give the appropriate order - will be war. Will not accept - there will be no war. Inshalla
O. Borchkova: We see that in this situation the helplessness and incapacity of international institutions is manifested very clearly.
M.Abbas: I'm already starting to think that everyone is beneficial for such a position.
N. Hajioglu: Of course. Because no one wants to take the first step.
M.Abbas: I believe that I am a peaceful person and believed that the international community thinks about the world more than about the war.
E. Satanovsky: It does not think about anything at all.
M.Abbas: But the situation shows that they are more thinking about the war.
O. Borchkova: or the international community, as the ownership and the UN, and all their structures - they may be, and think about the world more than about the war, but simply exhausted their capabilities?
M.Abbas: Then let the mandate pass and say: we can no longer cope with this business.
E. Satanovsky: They have no mandate and never happened.
M.Abbas: I speak in general.
O. Borchkova: No one can affect the situation in Syria. And before that we watched Libya and Iraq.
N. Hajioglu: Based on the fact that the mode is interested in provoking the war with Turkey, because the Sofa party, which sits and looks at it, naturally, will support him, and he creates a very serious front and it will be its natural support - if The allies of the regime will put pressure on it so that he does not go to such an adventure, then the war will not.
O. Borchkova: But this is the final suicide for him.
N. Hajioglu: There were such pressure from the Russian Foreign Ministry - when there was the first bombing. But whether allies can continue continue - this is the main question.
E. Satanovsky: Russia is not an ally of Assad regime, it is a party that has its own point of view on what is happening in Syria.
O. Borchkova: disinterested, not reasonable.
E. Satanovsky: disinterested or not, is a question for Vladimir Vladimirovich and Dmitry Anatolyevich. The fact is that the ally Asad is definitely Iran and in this capacity actively manifests itself. Soviet military personnel, unlike all previous wars of Syria with their neighbors there are no today.
O. Borchkova: Thank God.
E. Satanovsky: And in this capacity, the fact that the Russian position after Libya does not coincide and does not coincide with NATO position, nor the West as a whole, nor with the position of Arabian monarchs, is clear even a hens. Therefore, about allies is to Iran. But he is also a neighbor of Turkey, and the neighbor is important, and if he takes an important decision, then maybe Assad and perceivers. But in any case, the logic of survival of the regime for Assad will be the main one. It perfectly understands that the fall in the regime means the physical elimination of his family, and a significant part of Alawitov, that the countries will no longer be more and that any tales about democracy in the Arab world are good in the West, but they do not even pass in Russia for local, but There are no more so in Syria.
M.Abbas: It seems to you there.
E. Satanovsky: It seems to me that there is a civil war? You mean those gangsters from Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Al-Qaida ...
M.Abbas: Let's agree - they fought against Israel in the south of Lebanon. There were also mercenaries?
E. Satanovsky: I call the volunteers of the bandits. I also called them in Afghanistan - your Arab bandits from around the world, I called them in Chechnya and call bandits. And for you they volunteers.
M.Abbas: Afghanistan and Chechnya is someone else's land, and in the Arab world there are Arab solidarity. If you do not know this, this is another problem.
E. Satanovsky: Yes, go and hang from your Arabic solidarity together.
O. Borchkova: In vain you, Eugene.
E. Satanovsky: Yes, as it is. Because Arabic solidarity cost ...
M.Abbas: I'm just silent.
E. Satanovsky: I will tell you - you are fighting with us from Afghanistan with your Arabic solidarity.
O. Borchkova: Abbas is not fighting with you.
M.Abbas: Do not scare me.
E. Satanovsky: Who scares you? You look at yourself in the mirror.
M.Abbas: Do not say so. The Arabs who fought in Afghanistan are not the Arabs who live in Arab countries. And, by the way, a citizen of Russia, Chechen, also fought in Syria - he was recently buried. So let's not make porridge from honey and fish.
O. Borchkova: We will proceed from the fact that there are gangsters and not bandits - people who have different motivation. You write to you: "You support Damasky Butcher" - Let's not discuss in such terms. Funny.
E. Satanovsky: If I supported, I would be on the front. But in this case, I support the Westphalian system together with Russia, which suggests that there is a country, a state, on its territory, with its terrorists, civil war. The state is dealing. And when solidarity begins there. She in our civil war was also - then Bela Kun came, cut a bunch of people in the Crimea, then other volunteers.
O. Borchkova: Clear. But the attitude towards these people, terrorists or not terrorists does not cancel their fact that they have to deal with other people. One question remained without proper clarification - Iran and Syria, Iran and Turkey. What is Iran's interest in this situation?
N. Hajioglu: It has long been known that Iran and Syria is one tandem in the Middle East, which, at least, gives a nachine to an Israeli factor in the region. If they can be separated, then, of course, the position of Iran around Israel will glad. Therefore, it is considered to at least most observers believe that the door to Tehran opens from Damascus.
M.Abbas: We have a very serious union - Tehran-Baghdad Damascus- "Hezbollah". Moreover, Baghdad two years ago, before the revolution in Syria, complained about the UN due to the fact that Syrian terrorists fall to him. Now he changed the position. And this is very connected with the national interests of Iran. Iran supports Assad mode, because they have their own interests in the region. Hezbollah Lebanese, but mostly Persian Party. I witnessed how this party was born in Lebanon. So this union is the main stick of Iran to protect your interests in the region. And to the "Arab Spring" we had a regional player, Iran, Turkey and Israel. And between them, the conflict is to protect their interests in the Arab region, when the owners of the region have no place in this conflict.
E. Satanovsky: Israel has interest in the Arab region?
M.Abbas: Of course. They live right in the region.
E. Satanovsky: Thank God, they do not live directly in the region, but on the side of the road.
M.Abbas: in the center of the region. Therefore, it is natural that this Union is the main stick of Iran to defend its interests in the region.
N. Hajioglu: Still, I prefer to stay on Syria, until it is confused with Iran, although many try to do it. They have common interests, or not, - on this moment Interested in the safety of the territory - sovereign states. Any sovereign state has the right to respond, respond and ensure the safety of its population. That's what I would say on our topic.
O. Borchkova: Because now 100 thousand refugees?
N. Hajioglu: a few months ago I raised this question as a question of perspective in the future of a huge crisis point. Then these refugees were 10-15 thousand. Today they are already 100 thousand only in the Turkish territory, not counting other neighboring states with Syria.
O. Borchkova: several times in the studio came journalists who went to the border with Syria, to the refugee camps, where various people with different tasks and functions are present. And there really gradually makes the impression that in places of the campsumps the new focus is affecting what. Because these are people who cross the border several times there and here, which are being introduced inside of Turkey, want to stay there.
N. Hajioglu: There is an easy way - if Turkey had a state, which is extremely selfishly related to the problem of Syria, it would put out the outfit machine gunners, and let him try at least one refugee to penetrate the Turkish side - it was possible to do this.
E. Satanovsky: overlap the border with Kurdistan Turkey. Of course, can not. Therefore, if Turkey did not support the actively Syrian free army, other opposition groups did not participate in fact, without an ad, in the Civil War.
M.ABBAS: You are again about your. Pulled out your old record.
O. Borchkova: Turkey really is interested in Was Bardak?
E. Satanovsky: It can be not interested in anything - it participates as a rear in organizing civil war and operations on the overthrow of Assad.
O. Borchkova: To - What?
E. Satanovsky: This is a question for Erdogan. Therefore, it would be strange if the fights in the border strip will be afraid of the Turkish territory. Who throws a stone in the house of a neighbor, should always wait for an answer. It happens here. There is no big war yet. Whether it will be - unlikely, but it is impossible to exclude it in principle.
O. Borchkova: How long will this story last in Syria and the confrontation ending or the victory or the defeat of Assad?
E. Satanovsky: In Lebanon, it lasts decades. Civil war in Syria goes to the integral level and we will simply have such a Lebanon - the massacre of all against everyone, size with Syria. Will Syria be against Assad, it big question. It was 25 courses before his father captured power. And in the 30s it was just a few states.
M.Abbas: Will war, it is difficult to guess. The situation is very complicated. But when it all ends, nothing terrible will be - 25 million Syrians will remain, we finish with them, and then nothing will be in Syria - Assad remains alone. Therefore, of course, no, - the situation is complex, everything continues, and until the opposition will be combined until the specific center of the opposition, military and political, Assad will, of course, will continue to shoot, kill and arrest.
E. Satanovsky: While he wins his civil war.
M.Abbas: It only seems.
O. Borchkova: No one wins.
M.Abbas: Assad has already lost a lot. Assad is no longer able to continue to be president - after such a number of killed.
E. Satanovsky: This will solve the Syrians.
M.Abbas: I am half Syrian, so I have half a voice.
E. Satanovsky: Poor Syria.
O. Borchkova: Nedun, you know better.
N. Hajioglu: nothing like this. War is a terrible and involved business, where politics, different countries and much more. The fact that I am from Turkey does not allow you to think that I can assume with accuracy will be war or not. This War of Turkey is unprofitable. Turkey is advantageous to faster the conflict ended in Syria and apparently, Turkey for ensuring that the situation in Syria is resolved.
O. Borchkova: Thank you very much.
It will not leave the action of Israel without an answer, and this, in turn, can lead to a full-scale conflict in the Middle East. What a complication of the situation in the region can lead to, says Mikhail Khodarok Military Observer.
Israel Air Force Airplanes Early on May 10 inflicted a series of blows on the objects of the Iranian formations Al-Kuds in Syria.
Al-Kuds is a military unit of the special purpose of the Corps of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution (KSIR), which is the elite military-political formation of the Islamic Republic of Iran. These formations take part in interaction with parts and compounds of the Armed Forces of Syria in conflict in the territory of this republic.
On the eve of the Al-Kuds part on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights, they launched about 20 missiles around Israel.
For missile shelling and bomb-assault strikes of Israel, Iranian intelligence facilities, block posts and observation points in the buffer zone, headquarters and teams of formations, military camp north of Damascus, divisions and parts of the rear support, warehouses with material means of formations " Al-Kuds »at Damascus International Airport. In addition, the Aviation of Israel inflicted strikes on the starting attitudes of Iranian armed groups, of which was the on the eve of the launch of the Land-Earth Rockets in Israel.
According to the Russian military department, 28 F-15 and F-16 aircraft, which produced in various areas of Syria, was involved in rocket and aviation strikes of Israel Air Force, which produced in various areas of Syria. Also, from Israel, more than 10 tactical missiles of the "Earth - Earth" can be released.
"The places of dislocation of Iranian armed formations were attacked, as well as the positions of the FFOs of the Syrian Army in the Damascus region and in the south of Syria. In the course of reflection of the Israeli attack by combat calculations of the air defense of Syria, more than half of the rockets were shot down, "said Russia in the Ministry of Defense.
According to the army of Israel's defense, the military-air force of losses during the strike did not suffer and all combat aircraft returned to the departure airfields. In addition, Israel informed Russia before applying rocket and aviation strikes. Between the Armed Forces of Israel and Russian Federation Since 2015, the coordination mechanism has been established to prevent clashes in Syria.
Conflict perspective is getting closer
And although in Israel, Tel Aviv was not interested in the further escalation of the conflict with Iran, it is not at all the fact that in Tehran adhere to the same opinion.
It is possible that the mutual exchange of missile strikes will continue in the very near future and the situation may in principle to exit from under control and lead to a full-scale conflict in the Middle East with the involvement of all types of armed forces and childbirth of the unconventional parties.
"In the meantime, Iran and Israel exchange strikes around the third country," Akademik RAS Alexei Arbatov explained "Gazeta.Ru. - This is not the first time. But the escalation of hostilities is evident.
According to the Russian politician, "Israel will ultimately strike in Iran, in particular, on the objects of its nuclear infrastructure, which are about two dozen. For more Israel there is no strength. He can't hit the entire Iran's air defense system and his military facilities. But on nuclear infrastructure, where relatively few objects, Israel can strike.
"In this case, the fourth major war will be unleashed in the Middle East, in which the zone will arise, which I have repeatedly warned before," Akademik Alexei Arbatov believes.
The interlocutor of Gazeta.Ru believes that if the following conflict zones are Syria, Iran, Yemen, Lebanon, and, of course, Israel will be somewhat in one, then an unprecedented situation will arise, which has never been in the Middle East earlier - the whole region will It is covered by a war in which there are nuclear weapons and the nuclear industry.
To cope with this, according to Alexey Arbatov, will be extremely difficult.
"And what is even worse," the Arbatov emphasizes, - taking into account the military presence of Moscow in this region and the presence of close relations between Russia with some of the warring parties, the threat of a direct armed clash between Russia and the United States, which has been able to avoid twice, increases in geometric progression " .
USA Fight Iran and Israel
The military-political situation in the Middle East may suffer from a joint comprehensive action plan to ensure the peaceful nature of the Iranian nuclear program. In this case, Tehran, without any doubt, will resume his military nuclear program (the question, whether Iran ceased to work on the creation of national nuclear weapons, remains open yet).
Therefore, the mutual exchange of nuclear strikes in the most discovered future between Israel and Iran is not at all absolutely cut off from life fantasies. The necessary means of delivery (tactical and operational-tactical rockets of the Earth - Earth class) in Tehran have, the issue of equipping them with special combat parts for Iran is not a technically insurmountable task. In addition, it is extremely close to Tehran in the formation of its nuclear program that Israel has its own nuclear weapons.
The question arises - who most of all contributes to such an extremely unfavorable development of events? The answer here is obvious - the United States and their closest allies. It is these states that have recently been most of all for possible violations of the Treaty on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and the plenty of weapons of mass lesion around the world.
The recent plane in the defeat of Iraq and Libya, the execution of the leaders of these countries, persuaded the leaders of many states in the Middle East, as well as in Asia and the Far East, which is the only possible way to preserve state sovereignty and national security - the possession of weapons of mass destruction.
For the superiority of the United States and their allies over any potential opponents (and even their possible coalitions) in the conventional weapons today, today it is so high that there are no chances in the sizes and military capabilities of the state to stand in case of conflict with Washington.
Forces, only the Pentagon Air Force is able to defeat the armed forces of such countries in less than two weeks without the slightest chance of success by the latter.
Finally, more than a convincing example in this regard brought the leader of North Korea Kim than YN. He clearly demonstrated that only the possession of nuclear weapons and an adequate determination to apply it is the most effective way to preserve state sovereignty and national independence. Only in this case the United States agrees to negotiations and do not want to get involved in armed conflict with extremely unclear consequences for them.
You can never doubt a second that this example of the DPRK is for the leaders of Iran more than convincing, especially since Tehran for the last time Washington has repeatedly threatened with bombing and war to the victorious end.
Extremely negative in the case of the use of weapons of mass lesion in the Middle and Middle East can be for a limited contingent of the Russian armed forces deployed in Syria. In this case, not even a party to the conflict, the personnel of the Russian grouping may be influenced by the striking factors of weapons of mass lesion.
Therefore, one of the most important tasks of all acting persons in this region is to prevent the possible escalation of armed conflict between Iran and Israel and return to the joint comprehensive action plan to ensure the peaceful nature of the Iranian nuclear program.
Otherwise, the development of events in the Middle and Middle East can take absolutely uncontrollable.
In Lebanon to destroy Hezbollah.
The Washington Examination Plan of the Syrian President Bashar Assad still failed. Now in the crosshairs, it seems to be Lebanon because of the strengthening of the tension between Israel and Hezbollah, as already during the 2006 war. There is also the likelihood that the new attack on Syria from Washington will lead to an increase in the American occupying troops under the pretext of combating IGIS and other terrorist groups supported by the United States. From various reports it follows that the American military contingent will grow to about 2,000 soldiers, despite the victory over the IGS. Why is Washington stay in Syria? Will he attempt to overthrow the President of Syria? Probably yes. If here add the continued threats to the Trump government against Iran, the new war in the Middle East is more than likely.
The main current goal of Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United States to destabilize Lebanon and try to destroy Hezbolla to the new attack on Syria for the overthrow of Assad. Before the announcement of the war Iran, they must neutralize His allies: Hezbolla and Syria, which are now very strong. The Israeli government knows that he will not be able to defeat Hezbolla, without sacrificing with his soldiers and the civilian population. Israel needs military US military for additional support for its plans. Israel and the United States can continue to support IG HIS and other terrorist groups to organize a new civil war in Lebanon using terrorist provocations. Will Hezbollah and the Lebanese army be able to prevent terrorist groups to invade their territory? Until now, they managed to win the IGS on the Lebanese Syrian border, and most likely they will cope with the new American terrorist attack on Lebanon. Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri, who temporarily left his post when he was arrested in the Saudi kingdom, and then refused his resignation, demonstrates the beginning of the political crisis. So what will happen next?
Curse: Lebanese Natural Resources and the Great Israel Project.
In the event of a destructive war with Lebanon, Israel, of course, will try to seize control over Lebanese natural resources. With the arrival of Trump in the White House, Israel expanded the Jewish settlements due to the unprecedented seizure of the Palestinian land and the occupied Syrian Golan heights. Israel has already captured oil and gas fields and water sources. Lebanon can become a huge bonus. In 2013, the Minister of Energy Lebanon Gebran Bassille said that there are about 96 trillion in Lebanon. Cubic feet of natural gas and 865 million barrels of shelf oil. Political chaos in Lebanon and Israeli war with Hezbollah can contribute to the implementation of the Zionist Plan for the Middle East described by Israel Shahak, which lies in the division of Lebanon and other countries of the Middle East:
"3) This is not a new idea, and in Zionist strategic thinking it appears for the first time. Indeed, the fragmentation of all Arab states into small parts is a repetitive topic. This topic is very modestly recorded in the book "Israeli Sacred Terrorism" (1980) Libya Rokach. Based on the memoirs of the former Israeli Prime Minister Moshe Charketta, Rokach studied the documents that are the Zionist plan against Lebanon, compiled in the mid-1950s.
4) The first powerful Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1978 to the smallest details corresponded to this plan. The second and more barbaric Israeli invasion of June 6, 1982 corresponded to the same plan regarding not only Lebanon, but also Syria and Jordan. These invasions are ridicuing the statements of Israeli media that they want to see a strong and independent central government in Lebanon. Rather, they want the Central Government of Lebanon to sign a peace treaty and served them to regional imperialist purposes. They are waiting for the same compassibility from Syria's governments, Iraq, Jordan and other Arab countries, as well as from the Palestinian people. But all their plans concern not the Arab world, but the world of Arab fragments, who are willing to obey the Israeli domination. Odached Zinon in his essay "Strategy for Israel in the 1980s" writes about "far-reaching opportunities, for the first time since 1967", which are created by the "very turbulent situation around Israel". "
The Iranian ally of Hezbollah prevents Israel's expansionist plans, so a new war is preparing. The Israeli ally of Saudi Arabia continues to lead an immoral and destructive war in Yemen, while maintaining tension in relations with Iran. In the article by Thomas Friedman "Arab Spring in Saudi Arabia", which praises the Crown Prince Saudi Arabia Muhammad Bin Smanan "For Reformism", writes: "The head of Iran is a new Hitler in the Middle East," says the prince. - "But we learned from Europe that the peace does not work. We do not want the new Iranian Hitler to repeat in the Middle East what happened in Europe. " Trump support for the Saudi monarchy, including the sale of weapons for several billion dollars, only pushes Saudi Arabia to aggression in the Middle East, especially against Iran.
Preparation of a new war in Lebanon.
On November 21, Reuters published an article under the heading "The Commander of the Lebanese Army warns about the Israeli threat in the conditions of a political crisis," which is written that the Commander demands to lead to the increased readiness of the troops on the southern border due to the aggressive behavior of Israel. In particular, it is written in this article: "The head of the Lebanese Army told his soldiers on Tuesday, so that they were very vigilant while preventing unrest during political upheavals due to the departure of the Prime Minister, and accused Israel in" aggressive "actions on the southern border, against the backdrop of return to the country and refusal from Resigns Prime Minister Saad Hariri. The Army Account in Twitter quoted the commander of the Lebanese army of General Joseph Auna: "The troops must be ready to disrupt any attempt to use the current situation to incite the discord. The exceptional situation with which Lebanon faces requires you the highest level of awareness. ".
Israel understands that the defeat from Hezbollah and the Lebanese army will lead to big problems, so the preparation for war will consist in the maximum weakening of the military capabilities of Hezbollah, and in attracting the US Army, which can invade Lebanon from Syria. As I wrote, in the November article Reuters reported how many soldiers can use the Pentagon at the invasion of Syria: "Two US officers, on the conditions of conservation of anonymity, reported that the Pentagon has more than 2,000 soldiers in Syria. They said that the command could soon officially announce this figure. It is unlikely that this can be called an increase in the military contingent, rather this refinement of statistics ".
War in which there will be no winners.
The New York Council on International Relations published on July 30, an article by the Neoconservative Military War of Eliot Abrams, who was Deputy Advisor to National Security under President George Bush II, under the title "Next conflict of Israel and Hezbollah", recognizing that "Neither Israel nor Hezbollah will not become winners. " According to Abrams, "Real Military Objectives of Israel will not comply with the damage that it will incur, this damage will be in accordance with the strategic assessments, which are expressed by the Israeli Institute for National Security Research in the report" Political and Military Contours of the next conflict with Hezbollah ", compiled by Israeli politician Gideon Saara and Strategist of Israel Air Force Ron Tire:
"The objectives of Israel in the future conflict will correspond, first of all, his desires in this context (for example, the prevention of high-quality enhancement of Hezbollah or deploying high-quality Iranian air defense in Syria), but the basic data review shows several common goals that may be in this context: delay The following conflict, the formation of rules for the usual position after the end of the conflict, containing Hezbollah and other parties, undermining the attractiveness of the Hizballa military paradigm (the use of missiles), support for Israel's relations with its allies and creating conditions for reducing Iranian participation in the post-war recovery of Lebanon, as well as forced restriction Freedom of the activities of the Arsi of Iran-Alawit-Hezbollah. "
Strategic assessment indicated what realistic goals can be achieved Israel if the conflict goes according to plan: "There is only a limited circle of" positive "and achievable goals that Israel may hope to achieve from Hezballa and Lebanon. While the goal of the armed conflict is always political, in many contexts it is difficult to find a political goal, which is both significant and achievable for a reasonable price, and this is the reason for the main lack of meaning in the Military Conflict of Israel and Hezbollah ".
The reason, according to Abrams, is that Israel's victory over Hezbollah is impossible due to the Russian presence in the region: "Since Russia is impossible to exclude, about half of Shiites will remain in Lebanon, and Hezbollah will survive, like her relationship with Iran. After the war, the best assumption would be the restoration of Hezbollah, as happened after 2006. But Hezbollah will not reach anything positive in such a conflict, which will bring huge destruction of Lebanon. The only possible benefit for it can only be damaged to Israel. In some way, this is the only good news. ".
Israeli economy during the war.
The article of David Rosenberg called "Next Israeli War: We have not seen anything else" about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict of 2014, published in the Haaretz newspaper explains the consequences of war and its impact on the economy of Israel. Rosenberg notes: "In 2014, the rocket war was not a threat, but the play, since the Israelis observed, as the Iron Dome rocket applause, the Qassam rockets are knocked down. One-zero in favor of the owners ".
However, according to Rosenberg, the next war with Hezbollah will be different, and will have a versatile influence on the Israeli economy:
"The next war will look different. The approximate number of Hezballa rockets is 100,000. This is a suspiciously round number, and most likely incorrect, but no one argues that the Shiite militia is well armed, and even more importantly, many rockets have more powerful and accurate warheads than in 2006 . In Arsenal, Hezbollah has armed drones and rockets shore-sea. For his part, Israel also prepared well. Iron DOME missiles, which were designed to intercepting near-action missiles, improved the possibility of intercepting long-range missiles and ballistic missiles.
But in the case of a volleary launch of missiles, Israeli anti-missile systems will not be able to ensure that the level of protection to which the Israelis is accustomed to. Israeli infrastructure and economic activity are vulnerable even for a limited rocket attack of Hezbollah. From a geographical point of view, Israel is a small country without interior areas. This means that electrical and water objects are concentrated in small areas. More than a quarter of electricity produced in just two places. Natural gas is mined at one maritime field and is transported through the only gas pipeline. Long-term missile war will certainly stop this business. "
According to Rosenberg, the Israeli economy falls very quickly:
"With the worst version of the scenario, post-war Israel will no longer be considered global investors and business as a safe place to accommodate money and conclusion of transactions. Imagine a developing country without a permanent foreign inflow of capital, without mergers and acquisitions. The prosperous country of the last 11 years will disappear in a few days or weeks. ".
Rosenberg right. For example, during the conflict of 2014, Israel collided with economic uncertainty. During this period, Times of Israel published an article under the heading "War oppress people, the economy; Strong shekel is harmful, "in which the experts told how the economy would feel during the conflict delayed:
"Experts soften pessimism, noting that in the past, the Israeli economy showed sustainability. If the current conflict decides quickly, there will be few reasons for anxiety. On the other hand, a prolonged conflict in Gaza can force investors to worry about stability in the country and to cause long-term damage to the reputation and position of Israel as a key player in the global economy.
"Our key problems are the openness of the Israeli economy and our ability to be a key player in global markets," said the former Deputy Chairman of the Bank of Israel and the Dean of the School of Economics of the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya Zvi Akhtein. - "Indeed, there is still a key uncertainty regarding conflict completion. Most predicts that we will return to that relative to the stable geopolitical situation, which was in early July, if so, I can say that the economy will restore next year. But if not, the threat of the Israeli economy will be very serious. ""
But that conflict was against the weak opponent - Hamas. War against Hezbollah, Lebanon and Syria will have a more negative impact on the tourist business of Israel, which annually has more than 3 million tourists (mainly from the USA and Europe). The level of production in Israel will also fall. Street published interesting article Under the title "How will this war affect the Israeli economy?", Which showed what happened to the Israeli economy during the 2014 war:
"The Israeli economy suffers from falling performance with each declaration of rocket alarms, which cause citizens to hide in bomb shelters. The economic cost of the war is about 2.9 billion dollars, this war has already destroyed 1.2% of GDP. If silence comes after the list of truce, the Israeli economy will be able to resist. The story has shown that the Israeli economy grew by 6% before the 2006 war with Lebanon, and then slowed down to 2.9%. If the third intifada breaks up, the economic costs of Israel will become alarming. Since the Israeli army uses a large piece of labor, performance decreases, and costs grow. Israel manufacturers Association believes that this war has already caused damage in the amount of $ 240 million ".
Another war is another tragedy.
Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United States want to finally destroy the Alliance Iran-Syria-Hezbollah, and to achieve this goal, Lebanon will have to become another Libya, which exported instability and chaos. Only Israel and the United States can get the benefit of this, if, of course, they will be able to defeat. The United States will restore its domination in the Middle East, having received its natural resources, especially oil, gas and water. Israel will be able to increase the occupied territories for the "Big Israel" project. Saudi Arabia will remain a vassal state with a more powerful political pressure lever on its neighbors.
And if Saudi Arabia is enough nonsense to unleash the war with Iran, the Saudist monarchy will collapse, as Iran is much stronger in a war. The United States holds its military bases in Syria, this means that they did not abandon the overthrow of Assad. Saudi Arabia, Israel and the Government of Trump (which refused to nuclear contract with Iran) is counting on permanent conflict. The Israeli economy will collapse if a long-term conflict with Hezbollah will begin. And it will make a serious blow to Israel. Israel hopes that Hezbollah will be temporarily neutralized while in the United States will not be approved by another package of military and economic assistance to continue the war. And then the possibility of a new joint attack of the United States, Saudi Arabia and Israel to Syria will appear. And then you can declare Iran's blockade. However, if Russia and China will support Iran, this plan fails. In this case, the United States, Saudi Arabia and Israel will lose seriously.
The Israeli plan for making aggressive wars with its neighbors for the sake of the seizure of new lands will cause huge damage to Israeli citizens, since the economy will be in a serious position, not to mention hostilities. Lebanon will again be devastated by the Israeli War. For both sides, this will lead to disastrous consequences.
Why the conflict broke out between the Arab monarchies
In the traditionally restless region - in the Middle East - a new pain point: Arabian Peninsula. Since the beginning of June, the diplomatic war, announced by the Emirate of Qatar near the countries, coincided with the appointment of Mohammed Bin Smanan with the new Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia. It is noteworthy that this kingdom has long already has a very strained relationship with the Qatari authorities: the confrontation between the Dhai and Er-Riyada came to a new round with the beginning of the Arab Spring in 2010. Three years ago, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the UAE even temporarily reviewed their ambassadors from Emirate. But the current events are much more serious. Qatar turned out to be not only in the diplomatic conflict with Saudi and their allies, but also in the economic blockade.
How far can this confrontation come? Why is this pressure on the emirate now? Is it worth expecting armed intervention in Qatar? About this "MK" talked with a famous writer and a publicist, the author of books about the Arab rulers Sergey Plekhanov.
"Two" hot "Arab guys agreed"
We will remind, formally the "last straw" was the appearance of May 24, 2017 on the site of the Qatari news agency (QNA) material with fake excerpts from the speech of the head of Qatar - Emir Tamima Bin Hamada Al Tanya. He, according to publication, allegedly spoke in a positive vein on Israel and Iran (which is already a very strange combination!), As well as criticized the President of the United States Donald Trump. Later, QNA leadership stated that the agency's website was hacked, and the news is not related to reality, but the process has already been launched.
As a result, on June 5, several states, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and a number of other countries decided to withdraw their ambassadors from the Emirate and break diplomatic relations with him.
The main reasons were called Qatar connections with various terrorist organizations (and their financial support), including Al-Qaida, the so-called Islamic State and Muslim Brotherhood (all three movements are prohibited in Russia and in many other countries) , as well as the distribution by local authorities of "hostile ideology" and interference in foreign affairs.
It is worth noting that such accusations of Qatar have repeatedly sounded earlier. Therefore, the situation with the fake publication looks solely as a reason whom the opponents of the Emirate waited, obviously, a long time ago.
The best reason for the exacerbation of the conflict, Sergey Plekhanov believes, - in strengthening the position of the Crown Prince Saudi Arabia Mohammed Bin Smana, who, by the way, is now one of the most young rulers in the region: he is only 31 years old.
"In fact, he has now become the main acting person of Saudi politics, and the main reason is in it," the expert notes. "I suppose, played a role and contradiction with another young ruler - Emir Qatar Tamim Bin Hamad Al Tanya (he was 37 years old, that by the standards of the Middle East also not very much): Two" hot "arab guys agreed. Of course, there is also the root cause - a geopolitical rivalry between Qatar and Saudi Arabia, but it did not appear yesterday and will not disappear tomorrow. In this case, the personal factor aggravated the situation. "
Features of the nature of Mohammed Bin Smanan - no secret. The British and American press without uncertains calls him a "hot head" and "player" (not just a acting person, but the participant of the process is inclined to risk). The MBS, as often referred to as the Crown Prince in the media, from January 2015 it is the post of Minister of Defense, and he is attributed to the active - albeit indirect - the inclusion of Saudi Arabia in the Syrian crisis and conflict in Yemen. In no less ambitious, he and in domestic political issues, actively speaking for the restructuring of the Kingdom's economy, at the moment almost entirely dependent on the conjuncture on the oil market. And few hoped that the MBS plans include a decrease in tension on the peninsula.
"Most likely he will raise rates," says Sergey Plekhanov. - His figure is interesting for many reasons, and one of them is that among all the leading positions of Saudi princes, he is the only one who has not studied abroad. He, let's say, is a product of purely domestic education. What is it in Saudi Arabia? It implies a fairly strong influence of the Wahhabi clergy, playing in the kingdom a very serious role. At the same time, he is deprived of that "surprise", which is usually learning in Europe. And, obviously, these features will play an important role.
In addition, as we understand, the very fact is as fast elevation, as in the case of MBS, intoxicates. And all the plans that he voiced, including the departure from the oil-dependent economy, is the indicator that he, as they say, the hands are squeezed. This dynamic politician is another question as far as this dynamics is thoughtful. I do not exclude that we can soon see the renunciation of the king - now this is a common phenomenon. And if the MBS does such a trick, we will see the 31-year-old king on the throne, which, of course, is alarming among the surrounding states. After all, it is not only about the deep confrontation of Qatar and Saudi Arabia. The kingdom has a long-standing feud and with Oman, where the 76-year-old Sultan Kabus Ben Said, who constantly kept Saudis from various types of samples. Now he is not in the best condition, from great politics, he moved away, which gives space for the MBS. "
Intervention or local clashes?
Despite the anxious situation, until the opponents of Qatar - and Saudi Arabia in particular, as if they would not hurry to translate the crisis in the stage of military intervention. Even presented by Doha on June 22, an ultimatum out of 13 points was extended after another time for another two day - an obvious signal that the saudi escalation and their partners are not ready to go. It is worth noting that the meeting of the head of the Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt, which took place on July 5 (after an additional 48 hours for Qatar), ended without sensations: countries decided to continue the boycott of the Emirate, but abstained from additional steps.
Nevertheless, the likelihood of combat operations - even if limited - is also not worth excluding. There is already experienced experience: for example, in 1992, three people died as a result of a shootout on the border of two states.
"Before the intervention, the case is hardly reached," Sergey Plekhanov believes. - But some local border conflicts are possible to maintain tensions. Otherwise, why ultimatum Qataru? If it is not accepted, something must happen. "
But is there a real way to avoid escalation conflict?
In this matter, everything again rests on personal ambitions, the expert believes: "We are not only about SME, but also on the defold of forces inside Saudi Arabia. After all, it is no secret that there are many people in the kingdom, who are dissatisfied with how he collected in his hands all the powers. Among such people, in particular, the sons of the King Abdullah, who died on January 23, 2015, is one of them, for example, is still the commander of the National Guard. In addition, it is not necessary to underestimate the level of informal communication between Saudi princes - we do not know which processes flow in their environment. But one should not doubt that the fact of rejection from the power of people aged 50-60 causes tensions in Saudi Arabia. "
In addition to domestic political processes in the kingdom, heading, relatively speaking, the anti-katar coalition should not be forgotten about the foreign policy conjuncture.
The crisis around the Qatar was having delighted with US President Donald Trump. Previously, he himself repeatedly accused Doha in support of terrorists and Iran, to which the American leader has an extremely negative attitude. Nevertheless, the position of Trump is not the only one in Washington. So, for example, the head of the US Department of State Rex Tillerson, commenting by Qatar Ultymatum at the end of June, noted that a number of requirements for the emirate simply impart. On the other items, the US Secretary of State called on the parties to the dialogue.
"Of course, Washington can affect the situation on the Arabian Peninsula," Sergey Plekhanov is sure. - Do not think that Saudis will act contrary to the Councils of the United States. It is possible that the parties will exacerbate the situation, demonstrating the readiness for the conflict, after which they will retreat, referring, for example, to the fact that their Americans asked. "
However, ultimatum, response from ambassadors and the prospect of local combat clashes is not the only threat to the doh. Since the beginning of Jun, Qatar is located in the economic blockade, which, in the case of the Emirate, has very difficult consequences. In connection with the unfavorable climatic conditions and the small territory, agriculture in this country is practically not developed. More than two thirds of food in the emirate came through the territory of Saudi Arabia, and, of course, the embargo raised prices for products. However, Iranian authorities declared their readiness to help Qatar - after Doha refused to turn cooperation with Tehran. Nevertheless, the problem with the lack of products is not doing anywhere and in the short term will hardly be solved.
"In my opinion, the blockade can hold out for several months," says Sergey Plekhanov. - Sooner or later, of course, it will be removed. After all, the current exacerbation of relations is not the first of its kind. But a number of countries have already assumed the role of intermediaries - Kuwait, Oman; They earn their political capital, participating in the resolution of the regional conflict. Therefore, the countries opposing Qatar may be in a situation where, on the one hand, the United States will ask them to take a step back, on the other - fraternal Arab countries. And they will have the opportunity to retreat. But before that, as they say, the fists will admire. "
There is another important factor in the Qatari crisis. Both Emirates and Saudi Arabia are known as active players in the Middle East, in particular, in Syria, where each of the countries have their own interests. "Obviously, for a while and Qatar, and Saudi Arabia will lose interest in the Syrian problem," expert suggests. - And, perhaps, this will lead to some calm in Syria. In the end, for Saudis, this country is not as important as Qatar, for a long time Being "in the heel in the heel" for them. However, the Qatari crisis will not affect the actions of the United States in the Syrian direction: Washington, I suppose, on the contrary, will raise the bets. "
The article was published in the magazine "Modern Islam" (May-June 2012, p. 24-28)
Entry of the global economy In 2008, all economic and political processes significantly accelerated, exacerbing them to the limit significantly accelerated to a downlight wave of the Sixth Kondratyevsky cycle (VI K-cycle). In the past, a similar historical phase of development, the world community was held between the two world wars, when the British system cycle was changed by American, and a new leader of the world economic development came to the replacement of Great Britain, which formed at the end of its cycle of accumulation in the conditions of the globalization process unipolar world order. In the course of the current phase of historical development, a new change of the system cycle will occur, and Asian will be replaced by the American cycle, and China will replace the United States as a leader of world economic development.
In the process of transition to the Asian system system of accumulation, the process of "globalization" is undergoing the globalization process (terminology S.Yu.Lazzueva) or regionalization of the global economy. And one to this global economy with one center of force - the United States, and one reserve currency - the American dollar, will campaign into several regional alliances with a consumer market at least 400-500 million people with its own regional leaders and regional reserve currencies. Already, there is an intensive formation of these regional unions. The formation of the European Union based on the euro is completed, Nafta is being created: the United States, Canada and Mexico (most likely it will be bombed and the United Kingdom). China with the countries of ASEAN (in the economy of which suggests from China Huqiao) has already formed a free trade zone based on yuan. The Union of Latin American countries and the Eurasian Union is formed (although he is clearly lack of consumer market, even taking into account all CIS countries). India, Islamic and African countries will follow them, and by 2020 the world community will be a few powerful regional unions that can withstand the All-Russia Western TNCs.
Objective background of war in the Middle East.
As the leader of the Western world, the United States is trying to prevent the transition to a new system cycle of accumulation, because As a result, they will have to significantly reduce that high level of consumption, which was achieved in the West in the process of the American cycle. After all, this level is provided by the fact that the West lives clearly not by means - due to "accumulation through withdrawal", i.e. The robes of the population of other countries with the help of non-equivalent trading, when developing countries are received for the real goods, the euro and dollars are disabled. The United States and Europe actually live in debt, without accumulating funds for further development, live by the present, the future of their descendants. While the Asian countries, and, first of all, China, to accumulate up to 40% of their income, because They think about their future development, and not just about growing momentary consumption. Caring for your future development and is the main factor in the inevitability of the transition to the Asian accumulation cycle.
And American consumption standards will never be an example for imitation for Asian countries, because This "self-name" standards that will inevitably lead to the rapid exhaustion of our planet's resources, and they simply have no future. And this is the same one of the most important factors, why the American cycle that has fallen into civilizational consumer traffic inspection has been replaced by the American cycle. That is why the consumption centers of future world order are passing rapidly from Western countries to Asian and other developing countries. By 2020, the number of people who can rank themselves to the "middle class" will grow in the world by 2.7 billion people: 98% of this increase will give developing countries, the Goldman Sachs report on consumption in countries with a growing economy. The growth of consumption for nine years will grow by 10 trillion dollars, by 2020 this figure in developing countries will reach 13 trillion dollars. And will be 43% of the total world-class.
Goldman Sachs analysts believe that consumption will grow by 10% each year. And the data of structural changes by 2020 are very significant in the "middle class" (with an income of over $ 6000 per year): its total number of worldwide will be 3.85 billion people, of which the share of G-7 countries will decrease to 21%, While the share of BRICS countries will grow up to 44%. And by 2030 " middle class"The world will be 5.2 billion people, of which more than half (52%) will be in BRICS, and the share of G-7 countries will drop to 15%. Thus, according to Goldman Sachs, global consumption will move from developed countries to developing. But The current unipolar world order with the dominant role of the United States and other developed countries is an objective brake for further world development.
Similarly, it is a brake and outdated Jamaican world financial system, based on the American dollar, which countries of the West do not want to change, because It provides free overhead of capital from developing countries in developed. In the process of the new world crisis starting this year, the initiative must intercepted precisely developing countries, and primarily the BRICS countries that unite five of the eight future potential leaders of regional unions. And since the US and the EU are the leaders of the American cycle of accumulation, and among Islamic countries there is no explicit leader, it is the BRICS countries to formulate a political and economic agenda for the new stage of world development for the next 30-40 years. And first of all, they will be two major tasks:
1. Develop and form a new global financial system, since the current Jamaician financial system, based on the US dollar and on free market conversion of all currencies, proved its complete inconsistency in the crisis, and will collapse in the next 2-3 years.
2. To fully confront US attempts and, in general, the West to create a situation of "global chaos" in the Middle East and Central Asia, turning it into a new world war.
The BRICS Country Summit has already begun to solve the first task in the right direction by signing the trade agreement between BRICS member countries in national currencies and the creation of a single development bank. This year, the second crisis of a large-wave of a large k-cycle inevitably accelerates this process. But to confront US attempts to unleash the new world war will be much more complicated, because "Big War" is vital for the United States. Without it, the American government will not be able to not only withdraw the US economy from depression, but also the most important thing, to force the world community, buying US Treasury obligations, thus paying American non-returnable public debt, the size of which this year can achieve fantastic figures in 17 trillion dollars.
Even such a "dove" as the Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman It believes that now we should spend money in the same scale as in the times of the Last World War. "What we now need is," he says, "this is the economic equivalent of war. In fact, the Great Depression has reduced the program of numerous public spending, a better known under the name of the" World War II ". He said that war in Iraq and Afghanistan, Although costly, too small to provide stimulating impact on the economy. Recently, Paul Krugman called on to play a trick with an invasion of America from space: "If we suddenly find that aliens are planning an attack, and we need to confront the threat from space, you need to organize defense, That debt deficiencies will go to the background, and the decline will end within one and a half years. And then we say: oh, we were mistaken, there are no aliens. "By the way, such a trick in the 1980s. R. R.reigan played, and he was called the Soy-or Star Wars program. It was she who contributed to overcoming a downward wave V cycle.
Who benefits a big war in the Middle East?
But it is not easier whether the American "hawks" is not easier, not to "play a trick" with an alien attack, but to ignore the bonfire of the war in such a restless and torn-in numerous contradictions to the region of the world as the Middle East and Central Asia. Especially since he is far from the United States itself, but next to the borders of the three main countries BRICS: China, Russia and India. The war next to their borders will be a factor inhibiting their economic development, while for the United States, the supply of weapons to all opposing parties to the American economy. This is exactly what Americans have come in two world wars. Neither the Europeans nor the Americans nor other Western countries want to fight themselves, and they already have learned, despite their very high technological level. Most of the Islamic peoples of "bread do not feed", but let it be done.
As for the war, this is really the most profitable investment of capital from the point of view of its increase, providing infinite demand: the plane will be offered, the aircraft carrier will sing, the bridge will bomb, and it will be necessary to do everything again. But here there are very an important nuance - Each war leads to a sharp increase in public debt, because the state is the customer and the consumer here, because It orders itself and itself consumes military products. And expanded reproduction, and the increase in capital here is 100%, but a sharp increase in public debt is also ensured. So it was during the First World War when organized by the UK from a net lender turned into a net debtor, and during the Second World War, when the US public debt rose to heaven, and during the Vietnamese War, and during the Star Wars. Wars are always a multiple increase in government debt.
But in all cases, before the promotion of the debt military pyramid began, the US government has practically absent, and now he is simply exemplary, and to increase his military pace - it is definitely to destroy the current American financial pyramid based on the US dollar, and the US economy that actually lost its industry . The United Kingdom has not managed to get out of financial crisis After the First World War. The same fate is waiting for the United States if they organize the war in the Middle East. A characteristic fact, during Libyan events after the month of Libya's bombing, the Europeans ended with ammunition, and increase their production meant additional waste of state budgets, which the EU countries recently reduced as much as possible due to the foreclosable debt burden. As a result, the Europeans who conducted the main "bombing" in Libya, turned to the United States for help, and the former US Defense Minister R. Gotat was outraged that Europeans are trying to shift their problems in America. The same problem will arise in the future: where to take money for military costs, when all Western countries have fallen into a debt trap, and make a policy of tough economies of budget expenditures. For them, this is a deadlock.
But if you install alone Islamic countries to others, you can earn on the supply of weapons to all warring parties, especially since the contradictions in this region are so exacerbated and confused that it is difficult to determine the possible specific opposing parties. Arabs are opposed to Persians and Israel, but Persians are potential allies of Arabs against Israel, and Shiites (mostly Persians) are categorically configured against Sunnis (Arabs). The largest and most powerful economic and political player in this region Turkey is configured, on the one hand, against Syria and Iran, on the other, against Israel, and with the third - against Saudi Arabia and other monarchies of the Persian Gulf, opposing Iran. At the same time, Turkey fights against the Kurds, which are the basis of the new "democratic" Iraq, and are fighting for creating their own independent Kurdish state, and Iraq himself becomes closer closely with Iran.
Palestinians play a special role in this region, who, together with the Lebanese Hezbollah, are a symbol of the struggle of Islamic countries against Israel, a fully supported US, while Palestinians and Hezbolla support Iran. And what position will Egypt, after the power there will take the Islamists in their hands, a big question. On the other hand, the head of Al-Qaida Ayman Az Zawahiri called for an armed struggle in Syria, and Al-Qaida militants and other terrorist organizations are already going off from around the world in Syria, and they want to turn Syria in the battlefield. In addition, at the turn of the twentieth xxi century. For some of the American ruling and intelligent layers, it continues to have a significant influence of Trotskyism. He strengthened their orientation to violent actions on a global scale, but not only in the left, like Trotsky, but on the right to go. And it's not by chance that there are so many former trotskyists among American neocons: there is even a kind of evil irony of the story that the Major Assistant of the President B.obama is the great-grandfather of Trotsky Axelrod.
Therefore, it is not surprising that Deputy Hillary Clinton on the State Department of Robert Blake a year ago, speaking with a speech at the Institute of State Policy named after J. Baker III at the University of Houston, Texas, where the elite of Energy Companies of America was present, published the US strategy in the Central Asian region, calling this The region is vital for the United States. The main idea of \u200b\u200bhis report was that the border with China, Russia, Iran and Afghanistan, but the future of Eurasia is determined here. And it should be taken for American control to prevent undesirable cooperation between countries of a strategically important region. The interaction here should be carried out only with the mediation of Washington, and only to the extent that it will correspond to the interests of the United States.
Formation of future models of economic development.
Between the two world wars in the previous phase of "great shocks" (transition from the British cycle of capital accumulation to American) in the global economy, three main development models were formed:
Military Totalitarian Pseudo-Bulk Model, developed in fascist Germany, Imperial Japan, Italy, Spain and other countries.
Keynesian market model Stimulating consumer demand with the help of a state development in the United States, and after World War II and in other developed countries of the West, which created universal welfare states throughout the state.
Totalitarian non-market model of policy planning, which existed in the USSR and other social core countries.
The first model, as a result of World War II, crashed, because It was a self-named economic development model that felt in war in which demand and consumption was carried out thanks to the destruction of the entirely produced in the relief of real military battles, and which could not exist without war. The second - existed to a new two-wave V K-cycle, which began in 1970, and then transformed into a neoliberal economic development model due to the high adaptability and flexibility of the market economy. The neoliberal model was able to form a technological way (TU), based on microprocessor equipment, personal computers, the Internet and the Internet in the process of a downgrade wave V K-cycle V mobile communications. And v TU, in turn, allowed the United States and other countries of the West to derive their economies with a downgrade to the rising phase of the K-cycle, thus ensuring the survival rate of the entire Western market model of economic development.
The non-market Soviet model of policy planning existed until the end of the 1980s., When the Western economy, having formed the V TU, was able to switch to an upward wave, but the Soviet system due to the extreme inflexibility of his model of decision-making planning was not able to be in 1980. To form the VU and lost the Economic Competition West. Therefore, the disintegration of the social value and its USSR leader was actually due to its technological lag. Interesting fact: The previous IV that based on the internal combustion engine and the conveyor production began to form during the First World War, and the peak of its formation took place in the 1920-30s. And the Soviet industrialization of the first five-year plan formed the IV TU in the USSR at the same time as the most advanced countries of the West. That is why the USSR was able to defeat in the Great Patriotic War, Create nuclear weapons and first send a person to space. And in the 1970s. Due to the high prices for the USSR oil, the formation of the V TU, losing the economic competition to world capitalism.
Currently, the world entered a downward wave of the VI K-cycle and again experiencing the same historical period that was between the two world wars, only on a new, higher turn of historical development. And we are again present in the emergence of the three main models of future economic development:
This is a neoliberal model of American "neocons".
Chinese model of a flexible and pragmatic combination of a plan and market, with severe state control and regulation of the market.
Islamic model of a traditional society with the determining influence of the religious factor embodied in the theocratic state.
The basis of the confrontation of these three models of economic development is the essential difference in relation to the public device. On the one hand, in the context of the traditional, primarily of the Asian society, which is strong for its traditional connections of community, custom, religious and other collective form of self-organization, are emerging state and public structures with the traditions and leading people in the centuries as a collective social individual. . On the other hand, an atomized and selfish, the Anglo-Saxon society, which is based on Protestantism, is based on a separate individual who are not related to any traditional framework with other similar individuals. The first is a demos, i.e. People manage to manage which can only be through the structures of its internal self-organization. The second is fucking, i.e. The crowd, which can be manipulated very easily.
At the end of each of the last three centuries, the financial capital has occurred, and its powerful financial expansion began. In the process of expansion of financial capital, every time there was a sharp strengthening of information flows in the conditions of the Western atomized society and the mass consciousness of atomized-aggregated human material. The mass individual is easily manipulating, and the mass yield on the scene of history and the formation of an unstructured mass consciousness provided great opportunities for manipulating the mass consciousness to financial capital. Who pays, he orders music.
Recently, the manipulation of public consciousness and massive foliation of public consciousness reached simply universal scale. Some events begin to spin with the help of transnational media, others are simply ignored or turned inside out when black is out of white, and white is for black. Recall, at least the situation around Georgia's attack on North Ossetia, when the Western media showed Georgian "hails", and said that these Russian troops focus defenseless Georgia. The same thing happened around the events in Libya, in Syria, etc. Or when the stories about the opposition speeches in Russia were accompanied by a Telelight of Greek pogroms. The next stage of the mass feeding will be the mass chipization of people, when ordinary citizens under some favorable pretext will be "inserted" chips, with which it will be possible to complete their consciousness.
The Chinese model of a flexible and pragmatic combination of the market and the plan is perhaps the greatest viability and survival in the process of further historical development. More than 80 years ago, the outstanding Russian economist Nikolai Kondratyev argued that without planning, stable and uncruiscuous development is simply impossible. But the plan must be confirmed by the market, and the market element should be severely limited and regulated by the state, in order to avoid the heavy and destructive consequences of economic crises that are generated primarily by the uncontrolcity and greed of financial capital. It is this principle that is laid in the Chinese model of economic development.
Another model of economic development is the Islamic model that relies on a rigidly structured organization, a society built on the basis of Islamic religious dogmas. In terms of economic development, the Islamic Banking is a particularly important role in this model, which is the main alternative to Jewish usual capital. The Chinese model uses the old Western banking system, based on a medieval Jewish capital, only trying to control it more or less hard.
In the "Islamic banking" there is no place (usually inherent in its essence) bank interest, and banks act as equitable partners of real business, being a worthy alternative to the modern Western banking system. And that is why his successes and achievements are thoroughly silent, and it is against him, and not against Islam, as religion, the main blow to Western financial capital is sent. The current crisis of a downward wave of VI K-cycle will convincingly show higher efficiency and stability in the context of the global crisis of "Islamic banking" compared to the Anglo-Saxon system of old Jewish financial capital, the center of which is the private Fed US and other "independent" central banks.
<>And here it has a great importance, on whose direction Russia will be, which has already made a strategic mistake for 100 years ago, becoming annthate headed by the British Empire. The result of this error was: The First World War, the revolution of 1917, the collapse Russian Empire and civil war. One incorrectly accepted strategic solution, and the sea of \u200b\u200bblood and the suffering of millions of people are the fee, for the incorrectly chosen Nikolai II allies of Russia. In addition, he himself for this mistake paid a very expensive price - the life of his own and his whole family.
And now before the Russian leadership is exactly the same dilemma: to support the past, but still very powerful dominant center of world economic development in the face of Anglo-Saxes and Israel, or rapidly developing new centers of the world economy, followed by the future. BRICS, SCO, Eurasian Economic Union is all movement in the right direction. But Russia needs to be determined faster, and for example, within the framework of the SCO, it is necessary to include in full members of the SCO of the current observers: Afghanistan, India, Iran, Mongolia, Pakistan, and possibly Syria. And thus, once and for all, repel the hunt from Western lovers to "play the war", the desire to unleash a big war in an extremely explosive area of \u200b\u200bthe world - in the Middle East and Central Asia. This act, China and Russia would show the West that this is not its sphere of influence, and here Western countries are closed. Thanks to such a strong political go, it would be possible to prevent the disconnection of the "big war" in this region of the world. But so far, the decisive, solid and sober voice of Russia is not very audible.
