DEGREES OF COMPARISON OF ADJECTIVES In English, as in Russian, ...
The age structure in 1897 showed a typical picture of a society hardly affected by the demographic transition, with a high proportion of children and adolescents (about half of the population), and a small proportion of those living to older ages. Further tragic story The twentieth century has significantly changed the appearance of the age and sex pyramid, which is a vivid characteristic of the situation and at the same time “imprinted demographic history” of the country.
The population aged 68-69 years (i.e. those born in 1933-1934 during the decline in fertility and high infant mortality due to) is much smaller than in neighboring age groups. In the second half of the 1930s, demographic processes stabilized somewhat: this is evidenced by big number living aged 63-65 at the beginning of 1998 (i.e. born in 1937-1939)
The next “landslide” decline in the birth rate falls on 1942–1945, as a result of which the sex and age pyramid of 2002 has the strongest “scar” at the age of 57–59 years. Generations of war years of birth began to form families in the second half of the 60s of the twentieth century, which caused another (with a minimum number of births in 1968). In turn, those born in the late 1960s marry in the early 1990s, which causes a new decline in the birth rate, furthermore exacerbated by the economic crisis and declining living standards.
Age pyramids of urban and rural population Russia are in many ways similar, which is not surprising, given their common socio-demographic history. However, there are also differences that reflect the peculiarities of the process of urbanization in Russia and differences in the reproductive behavior of urban and rural residents. The rural birth rate has always been higher than the urban one, and therefore the proportion of children in the rural population is higher than in the urban population. At the same time, migration from the countryside to the city affects, first of all, the working age, and their washing out leads to the fact that the proportion of persons of working age in the countryside is lower, and the proportion of the elderly is higher than in the city.
The last decade has introduced some changes in the ratio of the age profiles of urban and rural residents. Particularly in 1989. average age was higher for the rural population, in 2002 for the urban population. This is due to some rejuvenation of the able-bodied part of the rural population, which, in turn, is explained by migration trends that are not quite common for Russia in the 20th century: the influx of migrants into the countryside in the 1990s from neighboring countries.
Regional differences in the age and sex structure of the population are determined by differences in the natural and mechanical movement of the population.
Graphically, the age structure of the population is depicted as gender and age pyramid. It is a two-sided directional chart in which the number of people of each age and sex, or their proportion in the population, is shown as a horizontal bar of the same scale. The bars are arranged one above the other in order of increasing age values, usually from 0 to 100 years. Since, due to mortality, the number of people in older ages is usually less than in younger ones, the image has the shape of a pyramid.The pyramid is usually built according to censuses or population surveys for annual or 5-year age groups so that the area of the steps of the pyramid corresponds to the number of people of a given age or sex or their share in the total population.
In the early 1930s the German demographer F. Burgdörfer proposed a typology of age pyramids: in the young population (primitive type of reproduction) it has the shape of a regular pyramid, in the aged (stationary type) it has the shape of a bell, in the very old (regressive type) it has the shape of an urn and determines, all other things being equal fast growth slow population growth or decline.
If the mode of population reproduction, i.e., the levels of fertility and mortality, did not experience any external influences, then the pyramid has relatively even edges. If a high birth rate and relatively high mortality persist for a long time - a wide base and a narrow top, and with low birth and death rates - a narrow base and a wide top.
Under the influence of disturbances in the size and age structure of the population, in the intensity of its reproduction, caused, for example, by war (leading to a drop in the birth rate and a decrease in men in military age) or constant immigration (usually increasing the number of men in working age), the verge of the sex and age pyramid become uneven. Such violations leave a mark (failures) on the pyramid for a long time. For example, in our country, the generations of 1915-1923 suffered great losses as a result of the First World War and the Civil War. birth. These and the generations adjoining them also suffered the greatest losses during the Second World War; in them, the preponderance of the female population over the male is especially noticeable. The decline in the birth rate and the high death rate of children during the years of collectivization and famine led to a decrease in the generations born in our country not only in 1931-1933, but also in 1934-1936. The low birth rate and high mortality of the population were during the Second World War. As a "demographic echo" of the small generation of 1942-1948. a decrease in the birth rate was manifested in the 60s (see Fig. 1). The age and sex structure of the population of Russia according to the 1897 census, as of January 1, 2006, and the estimated structure of the population in 2025 are shown in fig. 2.
The preponderance of the number of men at younger ages is explained by the predominance of male children among newborns. At older ages, the reverse is observed.
In this way, age and sex pyramid analysis makes it possible to visually characterize the sources of deformations in the age structure of the population. When the sex and age pyramid is superimposed on each other, according to two population censuses, shifts in the sex and age structure are visible. Thus, the pyramid facilitates demographic forecasting. For analysis, pyramids are built for individual groups of the population: urban and rural populations, migrants, people with employment, certain ethnic groups, and the population of certain regions.
To analyze the age, or rather sex and age, structure of the population, one of the graphical methods, called the sex and age pyramid, is widely used. The sex and age pyramid is a two-sided bar graph built in the usual coordinate system. On the y-axis, the scale of age groups is displayed on an arbitrary scale, on the abscissa - the population of a certain age. The male population is plotted to the left of the y-axis, the female population is plotted to the right. Each age group is displayed as a horizontal bar, the area of which is proportional to the population of the corresponding age.
Age pyramids are built either in one-year age groupings or in five-year age groupings. Of course, one-year pyramids are preferable, they are much more expressive and informative than five-year-old ones (but taking into account age accumulation).
Age pyramids are built either according to absolute or relative data on the number of age groups. Absolute data is simply the arithmetic number of people in each age group. Age pyramids built on absolute data have the serious drawback that they are incomparable if the populations reflected by these pyramids differ significantly from each other. Therefore, it is preferable to build age pyramids based on relative data. In this case, any population size is taken as one constant value, say 100, 1000, or 10,000 (the latter is most preferred), and the size of each sex and age group is divided by the total population and multiplied by the above multiplier in the form of one with several zeros. Then we get pyramids that are comparable for any population, regardless of their size.
The diagram obtained in this way was at one time called a pyramid for the simple reason that, due to the influence of mortality, the number of persons in older ages is usually less than in younger ones. At present, in countries with low fertility, the shape of the population distribution diagram by sex and age does not resemble a pyramid, but rather, some kind of inverted urn.
A sharp drop in the birth rate forms a corresponding depression in the age structure, which will be the deeper, the more significant the reduction in the number of births. And this depression will never even out, it will gape for a hundred years, until all those born in the years in which this depression fell die. On the contrary, a sharp increase in the birth rate forms a ledge on the pyramid, which is the greater, the greater the increase in the birth rate (the number of births). The alternation of rises and falls in the birth rate as a result of any social cataclysms causes the so-called "demographic waves" on the age structure (pyramid), repeating with a lag of 20-30 years (when those born during the period of one wave - recession or rise - become parents and their children create new waves that gradually fade over almost 100 years).
The age-sex pyramid also makes it possible to judge the impact on the reproduction of the population of various historical events: wars, epidemics, revolutions, certain legislative acts and other actions that can somehow affect the processes of fertility and mortality.
Even at the end of the XIX century. Swedish demographer A.-G. Sundberg (A.-G. Sundberg) introduced into scientific circulation the concept of progressive, stationary and regressive types of age structure. They were named so because with a progressive age structure, the population increases, and, moreover, quite quickly, with a stationary one, it does not change its numbers, and with a regressive one, it decreases.
They differ from each other in the shares of children aged 0-15 years and "old people" aged 50 years and older. In the progressive age structure, the proportion of children, according to Sundberg, is 40%, and the "old people" - 10%, in the stationary, respectively - 27 and 23, and in the regressive - 20 and 30%.
These types of age structure correspond to the types of age pyramids proposed in the 1930s. German statistician F. Burgdorfer. The progressive age structure (young population) corresponds to a regular pyramid. A diagram depicting a stationary age structure resembles a bell. The regressive age structure corresponds to a figure called an urn.
The above can be illustrated by the example of the age-sex pyramids of the Russian population.
1. Type of population reproduction, characterized by high birth and death rates. The age pyramid of such a population has a wide base (which is formed by a high proportion of children in the population) and a narrow spire-like top (a small proportion of those who live to old age). The sides of such a pyramid look like concave parabolas. This type of population reproduction can be called "primitive" (in many respects, and not only demographic, this name is quite suitable for it). In our country, the primitive type of reproduction persisted until the Second World War.
2. The industrial and social development of society also has among its results a reduction in mortality and birth rates (the reasons for such changes are discussed in the relevant chapters). Population growth slows down and eventually stops. The age structure takes the form of a bell. This type can be called motionless, or stationary. Scientists debate whether this type of reproduction can exist long time, or this state is possible only for a short time, followed by the inevitable transition to the third type of reproduction.
3. Further development, under certain conditions, leads to a state where the decline in mortality slows down or stops (mortality, alas, cannot decrease indefinitely), while the decline in fertility continues. Depopulation begins, the extinction of the population. The age structure takes the form of a funerary urn. The population is aging; in its composition, the proportion of older people is increasing and the proportion of young people is declining. This type of population reproduction can be called regressive, or depopulation, or degradation.
Pyramids for 1939 (population census 1939), for 2000 (data from the State Statistics Committee of the Russian Federation) and for 2050 (UN forecast 1998, low version). The first of these pyramids is that of a typical young growing population with a high birth rate and a relatively high but declining death rate. The length of the stripes decreases relatively evenly, however, deformations caused by acute events in Russian history at the beginning of the 20th century are already noticeable on this pyramid. First of all, attention is drawn to the “pit”, located in the region of ages from 15 to 25 years. This "pit" is the result of a decline in the birth rate during the First World War, the 1917 revolution and the Civil War that followed it. These events also left their mark on the population, which in 1939 crossed the age limit of 35 years (especially in the age group of 35-39 years). A rather sharp narrowing of the pyramid in these segments is a consequence of population losses from military operations, epidemics and other adverse events of that time. The diagram also reflected the compensatory increase in the birth rate in the 1920s. (protrusion at the age level of 10-15 years), some of its growth in connection with the prohibition of abortion in 1936, as well as its sharp drop in the early 1930s. on the whole, the age-sex pyramid of 1939 is a portrait of a young population with a high birth rate and a high, but declining, death rate.
A completely different picture emerges when looking at the age-sex pyramid of 2000. Traces of a decline in the birth rate in the early 1930s. and during the Great Patriotic War moved to the upper segments of the pyramid and smoothed out to some extent. But on the other hand, the pyramid clearly reflects the process of the evolution of the birth rate in Russia in post-war period. This is the time of the modern demographic history of Russia, when the country lived in relatively "calm" conditions, without wars, mass repressions of epidemics and other catastrophic phenomena. Demographic changes during these years were of an evolutionary nature and were determined solely by the restructuring of demographic behavior.
It was during this period that the action of global factors unfolded "without interference", which together led to the inevitable offensive already in the 1990s. the demographic collapse experienced by our country. Four stages of the demographic evolution of Russia in post-war years. The first of them is the time before the early 1960s, when the birth rate was practically stable, and fluctuations in the number of births were determined mainly by the influence of changes in the age structure of women of reproductive age. The need for children and the reproductive attitudes of the majority of the population were still relatively high in these years. Then, a “pit” is clearly visible on the pyramid, which falls during the period of a sharp drop in the number of births and birth rates in the 1960s. The reason for this decline was a radical decrease in the need for children for most families, which occurred against the backdrop of a relative improvement in the standard of living of the population. The third stage is the 1970s - the first half of the 1980s. The number of births during this period grew mainly under the influence of shifts in the age structure of the population and, in part, better satisfaction of the need for two children (in the first half of the 1980s), which was reflected in the lengthening of the chart bars corresponding to these years.
And, finally, the lower part of the pyramid shows a sharp, landslide drop in the number of births and fertility, which began in 1987 and took in the 1990s. catastrophic forms. The base of the pyramid is continuously narrowing. Its shape is becoming more and more similar to the type of pyramid corresponding to the regressive type of population reproduction. The age-sex pyramid of 2000 clearly testifies to the entry of our country into a period of deep and long-term depopulation, the way out of which is becoming more and more problematic.
We see in front of us an old and dying population, the shape of the age-sex pyramid of which really resembles a funeral urn. At the same time, the authors of the forecast are actually very optimistic in their predictions. They come from overestimated future fertility trends in Russia. According to the lower version of the forecast, the birth rate, starting from 2000-2005. will be fixed at the level of 1.25 children per 1 woman of reproductive age and will remain so until the end of the forecast period, i.e. until 2050
For a visual and joint representation of the age and sex structures of the population, the so-called. age-sex pyramids. The age-sex pyramid is a two-sided bar chart of the distribution of the population by age, with the female population on one side of the graph (on the right) and the male population on the other side (on the left). The vertical axis of the histogram represents the age scale, expressed in one- or five-year intervals, starting from 0 years and ending with the age limit or open age interval. And the total population of a given sex and age, or its share in the entire population or in the population of a given sex, is depicted as horizontal stripes, the area of \u200b\u200bwhich (or length in the case of equal intervals) is proportional to the named indicators. For the purposes of comparing different populations and obtaining comparable information about their age structure, pyramids are built using the proportions of a given age and sex group in the entire population and taking the total population as 100, 1000 or 10,000.
The diagram obtained in this way was at one time called a pyramid for the simple reason that, due to the influence of mortality, the number of persons in older ages is usually less than in younger ones. At least, this was the case in those years when this tool for visual representation of the age and sex structure of the population was proposed. At present, in countries with low fertility, the shape of the population distribution diagram by sex and age does not at all resemble a pyramid, but rather, some kind of inverted urn.
The age-sex pyramid depicts the state of the population at some point in time (at the time of the census or on January 1), i.e. in fact, it is, as it were, a stop in the continuous process of population reproduction. Therefore, by the comparative length of the bands, one can judge the influence of birth and death processes on the age structure of the population (and over many decades), as well as future trends in population reproduction and possible prospects for changes in its size in the future. If, for example, in a certain year and period of time, the number of births noticeably differs in one direction or another from neighboring ones, then this will be reflected in the age-sex pyramid in the form of either a ledge (if the number of births is greater than in neighboring years), or a failure (if this number is correspondingly less). And this deformation, passing through more and more older ages, will persist for almost a whole century, until this set of births dies out. And it will influence both demographic phenomena and phenomena of a completely different kind, changing in waves, for example, the number of births, mortality, demand for certain goods and services, etc. etc. The age-sex pyramid also makes it possible to judge the impact on the reproduction of the population of various historical events: wars, epidemics, revolutions, certain legislative acts and other actions that can in one way or another affect the processes of fertility and mortality.
The gender and age pyramid is similar to real pyramids, since with increasing age the number of people in age groups decreases and the stripes become shorter. The age structure of an ideal population, in which fertility and mortality would remain unchanged for a long time, would look like an almost isosceles triangle with straight sides (but still with some skew to the right, i.e. towards the “female half”). However, this does not happen, because both the number of births and the number of deaths fluctuate over time, sometimes very sharply.
Borisov V.A., Delyugraphy: Textbook for universities. M., 1999. S. 88.
With the help of age-sex pyramids, other demographic and socio-economic phenomena can also be explored. So, demographers build pyramids by gender, age and marital status. Widely known are the economic-demographic age-sex pyramids used to analyze economic activity by age and measure the balance of production and consumption by generations 28 .
An important aspect of the use of age-sex pyramids is the analysis of the relationship between the age structure and population reproduction. The connection between the age structure and the reproduction of the population was noticed relatively long ago. Even at the end of the XIX century. Swedish demographer A.G. Sundberg introduced the concept progressive, stationary and regressive types of age structure. They were named so because with a progressive age structure, the population increases and, moreover, quite quickly, with a stationary one, it does not change its numbers, and with a regressive one, it decreases.
They differ from each other in the shares of children aged 0-15 years and "old people" aged 50 years and older. In the progressive age structure, the proportion of children is, according to Sundberg, 40%, and "old people" - 10%; in the stationary, respectively, 27 and 23%, and in the regressive, 20 and 30%).
These types of age structure correspond to the types of age pyramids proposed in the 1930s. 20th century German statistician F. Burgdörfer. The progressive age structure (young population) corresponds to a regular pyramid; a diagram depicting a stationary age structure resembles a bell; the regressive age structure corresponds to a figure called (perhaps not without some irony) an urn. These figures are shown in Fig. 3.1.
The above can be illustrated by the example of the age-sex pyramids of the Russian population. Below (graphs 3.8 - 3.10) shows the pyramids for 1939 (population census 1939), for 1998 (estimated data) and for 2050 (UN forecast 1998, lower version). The first of these pyramids is that of a typical young growing population with a high birth rate and a relatively high but declining death rate. The length of the stripes decreases relatively evenly, however, deformations caused by acute events in Russian history at the beginning of the 20th century are already noticeable on this pyramid. First of all, attention is drawn to the “pit”, located in the region of ages from 15 to 25 years. This "pit" is the result of a decline in the birth rate during the First World War, the 1917 revolution and the civil war that followed. These events left their mark on the population, which in 1939 crossed the age limit of 35 years (especially in the age group of 35-39 years).
Rice. 3.1. Types of age structure according to F. Burgderfer 29
Chart 3.8
Age pyramid of the population of Russia, 1939
A rather sharp narrowing of the pyramid in these segments is a consequence of population losses from military operations, epidemics and other adverse events of that time. The diagram also reflected the compensatory increase in the birth rate in the 1920s. (protrusion at the age level of 10-15 years), some of its growth in connection with the ban on abortion in 1936, as well as its sharp drop in the early 30s, caused, no doubt, by those socio-economic and political events that were happening in the country at that time.
On the pyramid of 1959, deep dips in the numbers of those born in 1916-1918 are visible. (first world and Civil War), their slight increase in 1919 (it is still difficult to find an explanation), then an increase until 1929 and a sharp drop in 1930-1935. ... Then the deepest failure in 1940-1944, i.e. during the hardest war. It is important to pay attention to the still relatively wide and expanding base of the pyramid, which indicates a relatively high birth rate in the country. ...It is easy to notice the numerical superiority of women, especially at the age of over 30 years. In contrast to the birth rate, the fall of which manifests itself in the age structure in the form of depressions, mortality leaves a mark on the pyramid only in the form of gender disproportion and general form its configuration.
Borisov V.A. Demography: Textbook for universities. M., 1999. S. 92-93.
In general, the age-sex pyramid of 1939 is a portrait of a young, growing population with a high birth rate and a relatively high, but declining, death rate.
A completely different picture emerges when looking at the 1998 age-sex pyramid. and during the Great Patriotic War they moved to the upper segments of the pyramid and smoothed out to some extent. But on the other hand, the pyramid clearly reflects the evolution of the birth rate in Russia in the post-war period. This is the time of the modern demographic history of Russia, when the country lived in relatively "calm" conditions, without wars, mass repressions, epidemics and other catastrophic phenomena. Demographic changes during these years were of an evolutionary nature and were determined solely by the restructuring of demographic behavior.
Age-sex pyramid of the population of Russia, 1998
Chart 3.9
It was during this period that the action of global factors unfolded "without interference", which in their totality led to the inevitable offensive already in the 90s. the demographic collapse experienced by our country. Four stages of the demographic evolution of Russia in the postwar years are clearly visible. The first of them is the time before the beginning of the 60s, when the birth rate was practically stable, and fluctuations in the number of births were determined mainly by the influence of changes in the age structure of women of reproductive age. The need for children and the reproductive attitudes of the majority of the population were still relatively high in these years. Then, a “pit” is clearly visible on the pyramid, which falls during the period of a sharp drop in the number of births and the birth rate in the 60s. The reason for this decline was a radical decrease in the need for children for most families, which occurred against the backdrop of a relative improvement in the standard of living of the population. The third stage is the 70s - the first half of the 80s. The number of births during this period grew, mainly under the influence of shifts in the age structure of the population and, in part, more complete satisfaction of the need for two children (in the first half of the 1980s), which was reflected in the lengthening of the diagram bars corresponding to these years.
And, finally, the lower part of the pyramid shows a sharp, landslide drop in the number of births and fertility, which began in 1987 and took in the 90s. catastrophic forms. The base of the pyramid is continuously narrowing. Its shape is becoming more and more similar to the type of pyramid corresponding to the regressive type of population reproduction. The age-sex pyramid of 1998 clearly testifies to the entry of our country into a period of deep and long-term depopulation, the way out of which is becoming more and more problematic. Further evolution of the reproduction of the population of our country in this direction will lead to the fact that its age-sex structure will acquire by the middle of the 21st century. the view shown in Graph 3.10 based on the 1998 UN forecast (lower version). We see in front of us an old and dying population, the shape of the age-sex pyramid of which really resembles a funeral urn.
Chart 3.10
Age and sex structure of the Russian population, 2050 t. UN forecast. Bottom option 30
At the same time, the authors of the forecast are actually very optimistic in their predictions. They come from overestimated future fertility trends in Russia. According to the lower version of the forecast, starting from 2000-2005, the birth rate will be fixed at the level of 1.25 children per 1 woman of reproductive age and will remain so until the end of the forecast period, i.e. until 2050. What is this forecast based on? completely incomprehensible and not commented on in any way.
The reality will be much more tragic if, of course, nothing is done to stop the decline in the birth rate and depopulation in our country.
AGE PYRAMID
AGE PYRAMID, pyramid of ages, age-sex pyramid, graphic. image distribution of people by age and gender. It is a two-way directional chart, on which the number of people of each age and gender or their proportion in us. shown as a horizontal bar. scale. The bars are arranged one above the other in order of increasing age values, usually from 0 to 100 years, on the left - for men, on the right - for women. Since the number of people tends to be smaller due to mortality at older ages, the image for the full set of ages is pyramid-shaped.
V. p. is usually built on the basis of data from censuses or surveys. by one-year or 5-year age groups so that the area of the steps of the pyramid corresponds to the number of people (thousands) of each age and sex, or, in comparison, to their share in us. (%). The length of the step in this case corresponds to the density of a given age group, i.e., the number of people per unit of age. If the initial data with the age structure are presented in unequal age intervals, then for larger groups the length of the steps of the VP is determined by dividing the number of people in the group by the length of the interval, expressed in age units accepted for the entire VP. So, when constructing V. p. according to 5-year groups of numbers. The 6-year-old age group should be divided by 6/8, and the 10-year-old by 2. If the oldest age group includes people, for example, 70 years and older, then this interval is considered to extend up to 100 years, i.e. . is equal to 30 years, however, for every 5 years it depicts not cf. density (which can be obtained by dividing the number of groups by 6), and gradually decreasing to zero by the age of 100 years. V. p. depicts the age-sex structure of us. at one time or another, i.e., fixes a certain state of it in the course of a continuous process of reproduction of the population. Compar. the length of the steps from the oldest ages (people who were born a long time ago) to the youngest (people born recently) gives an idea of the effect on the age composition of us. birth and death processes over a long period of time. time, as well as the impact of the prevailing present moment age composition on the growth prospects of us. In the beginning. 1930s concept was introduced three types age structure of the population, to-the Crimea correspond to the form of V. p.: in the young us. it has the shape of a regular pyramid, in the aged us. - the shape of a bell, in a very old one - the shape of an urn (see Fig. 1), and determines, all other things being equal, the rapid growth, slow growth or decline of us.
If us. and the mode of reproduction of the population, i.e., the levels of fertility and mortality, did not experience k.-l. ext. perturbing influences, then the V. p. has relatively even edges, and with a long-term high birth rate and a relatively high death rate, it has a wide base and a narrow top (for example, us. Mexico, see Fig. 2), and at low levels birth and death rates - a narrow base and a wide top (for example, population of Sweden, see Fig. 3). These two V. p. correspond to the types of age structure of a growing and almost stationary us. 20th century and "demographic. echo" of this phenomenon. distribution of us. shown in fig. 2 and 3 as a percentage, and therefore V. p. are completely comparable, although us. Mexico in 1970 was 48 million, and us. Sweden - 8 million
Under the influence of violations in number. and age structure of us. or in the intensity of its reproduction, caused, for example, by war, which leads to a drop in the birth rate and to a decrease in men of military age, or by constant immigration, which usually increases the number of men in working age, the boundaries of V. p. become uneven, on them previous changes in the nature of the increase and decrease in us are reflected. Such violations leave traces in the age structure of us.
For example, on V. p. us. The GDR as of December 31, 1970 (see Fig. 4) clearly shows signs of a sharp decline in the birth rate and, accordingly. numbers born during the 1st World War 1914-18 (1) during the years of the economy, the crisis of 1929-33 in the pre-war. Germany (3) and during the 2nd World War 1939-45, unleashed by Nazi Germany (4), as well as traces of the loss of adult men in the military. years (2). The "preponderance" of the number of women over the number of men over the age of 70 is caused not only by the death of men during the war, but also by their higher mortality in peacetime. The "demographic, echo" of the decline in fertility can be traced through the generation: smaller generations born in 1930-33 (at the end of 1970 they were aged 37-40 years), reaching reproductive age, produced relatively fewer children (at the end of 1970 these children were 11-15 years old) than neighboring generations. More means. the flaw is shown by the generations born in 1941-46 (at the end of 1970 they were 23-28 years old): the tapering base of the pyramid (ages 0-5 years) is a consequence of the small number of births to a small number of parents belonging to these generations (5). The "preponderance" of the number of men in younger ages is explained by the predominance of children by husbands. sex among those born (see). This preponderance persists until almost 40 years of age, despite the higher mortality of men. Thus, the analysis of V. p. allows us to visually characterize the sources of deformations in the age structure of us.
Rice. Fig. 4. The age pyramid of the population of the GDR as of December 31, 1970: 1 - the deficit of births in 1914-1918; 2 - military losses of men in 1939-1945; 3 - deficit of births in 1929-1933; 4 - shortage of births in 1939-1945; 5 - "demographic echo" of the deficit of births in 1939-1945.
Superimposed on each other V.p. according to two censuses of us. (the difference in the length of each step should be clearly marked) show shifts in the age-sex structure caused by the fact that in different years different generations are at the same age, the number of which can also be different. For example. V. p. us. USSR for 1926 and 1970 (see Fig. 5) illustrate the war-induced violations in the sex ratio, the decline in the birth rate in the military. years and their consequences in the beginning. 70s Thus, V. p. facilitates the demographic forecast. It is significant to compare V. p. also in space, for example, pyramids for mountains. and sat down. us.: in the village. areas are dominated by children and the elderly, and in the mountains. settlements - us, of working age. V. n also help to assess the accuracy of census data on age. For example, extremely long steps of the pyramid at round ages in us. Mexico (see Fig. 2) and too short at adjacent ages indicate a signifi- cant. age accumulation.
For the purpose of analysis, V. p. groups of us. - migrants, people with employment, otd. ethnic groups or us. otd. regions.
V. p. are also used in the study of the reproduction of us. using demographic models. Comparing the outlines of B, n. real us. and stationary population or stable population, respectively. modes of reproduction, you can visualize the nature of the influence of modern. birth and death rates on the age-sex composition and number. the real us. Such an analysis, turned to the past, helps to capture the stages of transition from one mode of reproduction to another, to set the time of such a transition in different countries and in different eras.
V. p. for the future allow you to see decomp. demographic options. forecasts for both countries, and for groups of countries (eg, economically developed and developing), as well as the world as a whole. Futurologists often resort to the image of V. p. to compare the prospects for changes in the age and sex composition of us. countries with "young" and "old" us. until the state of stationarity is reached.
V. p. are also used in economic and demographic. studies, where their steps are not represented by numbers. generation (age group), but the number of people employed in production, the volume (usually in monetary terms) of the production and consumption of people at each age or period of their life, hours worked, etc. For a conditional generation, such characteristics are obtained by construction of the so-called. economic V. p.
Boyarsky A. Ya. Shusherin P. P., Demographic statistics, 2nd ed., M. 1955, Gerchuk Ya P, Graphic. methods in statistics, M. 1968; Valkovich E. Ekon. age pyramids, in the book: Marxist-Leninist theory of population, 2nd ed., M. 1974, Kalinyuk I.V., Age structure of us. USSR, M. 1975; Arab-Ogly E. A., Demographic and environmental forecasts, M. 1978.
T. S. Batalina, A. G. Volkov.
Demographic encyclopedic dictionary. - M.: Soviet Encyclopedia. Chief editor D.I. Valentey. 1985 .
See what the "AGE PYRAMID" is in other dictionaries:
age pyramid- A graphic representation of the distribution of people by age and sex, in which the number of people of each age and sex, or their proportion in the population, is depicted by horizontal bars of a certain scale. → Fig. 259, p. 563 Syn.: demographic pyramid… Geography Dictionary
AGE PYRAMID- (population pyramid) A diagram that graphically depicts the distribution of the population by age. The youngest and most numerous age groups form a triangle at the base of the pyramid; the oldest and least numerous - a small triangle at ... ... Glossary of business terms
AGE PYRAMID- a demographic term denoting a graph (histogram) illustrating the age and sex distribution of the population. On the vertical axis, starting from the age of 0 years, age is plotted in one or five-year age intervals. Last… … Sociology: Encyclopedia
AGE STRUCTURE OF POPULATION, distribution of us. by age groups and age contingents in order to study demographics. and social economy. processes. Describing the ratio of age groups, V. s. n. lets give them a comparison. appraisal in ... ... Demographic Encyclopedic Dictionary- a graphical model of the distribution of ages in natural populations, in which the number of individuals or their percentage in age groups is depicted as horizontal rectangles located one above the other. Ecological encyclopedic ... ... Ecological dictionary
Glossary of terms on social statistics
AGE (AGE-SEX) PYRAMID- graphical distribution of the population by age and sex. It is a two-sided directional chart in which the number of people of each age and gender, or their proportion in the population, is depicted as a horizontal bar of a certain scale. ... ... Social statistics. Dictionary
AGE PYRAMID (AGE-SEX TRIANGLE)- (from the Greek. pyramis polyhedron) eng. pyramid, age sex; German Alterspyramide. A graphic representation of the distribution of people by age and sex in the form of a two-sided chart, on which the number of people of each age and sex (or their proportion in ... ... Explanatory Dictionary of Sociology
