One of the varieties of the arithmetic mean is the chronological average. Calculated by the totality of the values ​​of the attribute at different moments or for different periods of time, it is customary to call average chronological used to find the average level in time series.

Unlike the variation series, which characterizes the change in phenomena in space, the dynamic series is a series of numbers that characterizes the change in phenomena over time. They are sometimes called temporary or chronological. Depending on the type of time series, to determine their average levels, appropriate methods of calculating the average chronological value can be applied. So, with the emergence of the average level in the periodic series of dynamics, it is possible to use the arithmetic mean, simple or weighted. If it is necessary to calculate the average level of the momentary series of dynamics with equal time intervals between the moments, then it is advisable to use the technique average chronological moment series at equal intervals:

where are the ordinal levels of the moment series; n is the number of moments in a row.

For example, in an agricultural organization (AO), as of the beginning of each month in 2010, there were the following pigs:

It is conventionally considered that the intervals (intervals) of time between the initial moments (dates) of each previous and subsequent month are equal to each other. Therefore, formula (6.5) can be used to calculate the average quarterly pig population.

The indicators used to assess the distribution of the population are shown in the following table.

Substitute the appropriate data and get:

This means that on average, in the first quarter of 2010, there were 717 pigs in the agricultural enterprises.

In those cases when it is necessary to determine the average level of the moment series of dynamics with at uneven intervals between moments, the formula for the arithmetic weighted average (6.4) is usually used.

For example, the number of workers in a team of agricultural enterprises was: as of April 1 - 20 people, as of April 11 –25, as of April 30 - 36 people. It is necessary to calculate the average monthly number of workers in the brigade for April.

As can be seen from the data presented, the time intervals between the indicated moments (dates) are not equal to each other: it can be assumed that there were 20 people in the brigade for 1 day, 25 for 10 days, 36 for 19 days. workers in the brigade, we use the formula (6.4) and get:

Thus, in April, an average of 32 workers were employed in a team of agricultural enterprises.

In the system of the agro-industrial complex, the average chronological value can be used when calculating the average annual, quarterly, monthly number of employees, livestock different types and groups of farm animals, the presence of various types of machine and tractor fleet and other cases.

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(at the beginning of 2000)

Even higher differences in the degree of concentration of the urban population in the constituent entities of the Federation. More than 90% of the urban population in the Magadan region (92.0%), in the Murmansk region (91.9%), in the Khanty-Mansiysk autonomous region(91.2%); the minimum indicators are in the Chechen Republic (23.5%), in the Altai Republic (25.5%), in the Komi-Permyak Autonomous Okrug (25.8%).

The process of increasing the role of cities is called urbanization. Urbanization entails suburbanization - the growth and development around large cities of their satellite cities, which form agglomerations.

At present, the process of urbanization is going on more and more intensively - the spread of urban forms and living conditions to the countryside. In the broadest sense of the word, urbanization is part of urbanization.

Rural population Russia accounts for 27%.

Share of urban and rural population by economic regions

The location of rural settlements depends on natural and geographical factors, primarily on soil and climatic conditions. The highest concentration of the rural population is in the North Caucasian (45.1%) and Central Black Earth (37.4%) economic regions, where there are the most favorable conditions for agricultural production.

Urban and rural populations differ in demographic characteristics. In rural areas, the average life expectancy is lower, more indicators fertility and mortality, a higher proportion of the elderly population, which affects the increase in mortality and a decrease in average life expectancy (Table 5.4).

Table 5.5.

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Average chronological

The average chronological is the average level of a series of dynamics, i.e.

3.3. The share of the urban population in the total population1)

that is, the average calculated by the totality of the indicator values ​​at different moments or periods of time.

Depending on the type of a number of dynamics, various methods of its calculation are used, namely, the calculation of the average chronological interval series and the average chronological moment series.

The average chronological interval (more common) series is the average value from the levels of the interval series of dynamics, which is calculated by the formula:

where is the average level of the series;

- the level of a number of dynamics;

- the number of members of the series

For example, consider the data on children's health institutions in Pskov and the region.

Table. Children's health institutions

The series under study is interval, using the average chronological formula, we can calculate the average number of health facilities:

Institutions.

The average chronological moment series is the average value from the levels of the moment series of dynamics. If there is a function expressing the change in the moment indicator in time, then for the time from to the average chronological moment series is equal to:

However, there is usually no data from continuous observation of the value at the disposal of statistics. Therefore, depending on the nature of the change in the indicator and the available data, different calculation methods are used.

With equal time intervals between the dates for which data are available, and a uniform change in the size of the indicator between dates, the average chronological moment series is usually calculated by the formula:

where is the level of the row;

- the number of all members of the series;

- average level.

If the periods of time separating one date from another are not equal to each other, then the calculation of the average chronological moment series is made according to the formula of the weighted average arithmetic, the weights of which are taken as the time intervals between the dates, that is, according to the formula:

where is the time during which the given level of the series remained unchanged.

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Subject and main tasks of socio-economic statistics

The subject of socio-economic statistics (SES) is the quantitative side of mass social and economic phenomena, inextricably linked with their qualitative content in specific conditions of place and time

the main tasks of the SES.

1. Statistical observation of the activities of all subjects of the country's economy at all stages of the reproduction cycle (production of goods and services; formation and distribution of primary income; redistribution of income; use of income for final consumption and the formation of savings; use of savings for accumulation).

Population distribution indicators

Comprehensive study of the state and development of the economy of the country and its regions (reproduction of fixed assets, investment activity, dynamics of national wealth, characteristics of the labor market, rates of economic growth, growth rates of labor productivity, price indices and inflation, deficit (surplus) of the state budget, the level of public debt, etc.).

3. Comprehensive study of the state and development of the social sphere of the country and its regions (natural movement of the population, infant mortality, life expectancy, household income and consumption, indices of nominal and real wages, indices of real disposable cash income , social stratification of society, dynamics of the poverty level, etc.). 4. Analysis of macroeconomic proportions (for example, between production and consumption, accumulation and consumption, growth in labor productivity and growth in average wages and etc.).

5. Analysis of trends, patterns throughout the country and individual regions (decrease in mortality, increase in birth rates, dynamics of employment and unemployment, dynamics of inflation, growth in labor productivity and consumer prices, dynamics of the level poverty, etc.), as well as types of economic activity (dynamics of the number of enterprises and organizations, including small and medium-sized enterprises, dynamics of the volume of production and turnover of goods and services, reducing material costs and energy intensity, increasing profits and reducing production losses, growth in labor productivity and average wages, growth in producer prices, etc.). 8

6. Improvement of systems of indicators characterizing socio-economic phenomena and processes, classifications (classifiers), their consistency and interconnection, methods of assessing individual indicators.

7. Improvement of the methodology for the analysis of socio-economic phenomena and processes, including the methodology of national accounting.

8. Provision to authorities government controlled required information on the socio-economic development of the country and its regions for taking measures to reduce their intensity).

9. Providing heads of enterprises and companies, managers, production organizers and businessmen with information on the development of the economy and social sphere, necessary to study the external environment in which their companies or enterprises operate, when making decisions on investments, expanding production , sales organization, etc.

10. Informing society, educational and research institutions and other organizations and individuals on the main results and trends in the socio-economic development of the country and its regions.

11. Providing information on the state and development of the Russian economy to international organizations: UN, International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, etc.

12. Introduction of new technologies for collection, processing, transmission and dissemination of statistical information, etc.

Methods for calculating the average annual population.

the choice of the method for its calculation depends on the initial data.

1. If data are available at the beginning (S1) and end of the period (S2), then the average population is determined by the simple arithmetic mean formula:

3. If the intervals between the dates are unequal, then the calculation by the arithmetic weighted average method:

To characterize the change population in time are used:

1.population growth rate:

2.population growth rate:

Having determined the size of the population, SES studies its composition using the method groupings, which is carried out by:

Social composition,

Spheres of activity and sectors of the economy,

Professions,

Age,

Marital status,

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population statistics, formulas for their calculation

Basic concepts and indicators

Basic concepts of demographic statistics
Census	Demographic qualification designed to characterize the demographic situation in the country. In Russia, continuous population censuses were carried out in 1920, 1926, 1939, 1959, 1970, 1979, 1989, and 2002.
Microcensus	Conducted in the intervals between population censuses, covers, as a rule, 5% of the population (for example, the census in Russia in 1994)
Age-sex pyramids	A graphic representation that allows you to visually display the age and sex composition of the population
Natural movement of the population	Population change due to births and deaths
Natural increase (decrease) of the population	Positive (negative) difference between the number of births and deaths: , where N- the number of births; M- the number of deaths
Mechanical increase (decrease) of the population (migration balance)	Positive (negative) difference between the number of arriving and leaving the population: , where NS V
Migration	The movement of people (migrants) across the borders of territories with a change of place of residence forever or for a certain time. Migration can be internal or external
Internal migration	Population movement within the boundaries of a certain territory
External migration	Population movement across borders
Gross migration (gross migration)	Shows the total number of migrating inhabitants: P + B. This indicator is also called migration turnover.
Migration balance	The difference between the number of arrivals and departures: P - B
Immigration	The entry of the population into a specific area or country
Emigration	Departure of the population from a given area or country

Continuation of table. 3.1

Indicators (categories) of the population in censuses
Available population (NN)	The category of the population that unites people who are actually in a given locality at the time of the census: NN = PN - VO + VP, where MON- permanent population; IN- temporarily absent; VP - temporary residents
Permanent population (PN)	The category of the population that unites people for whom this settlement represents a place of usual residence, regardless of their actual location at the time of registration (census): PN = NN - VP + VO
Temporarily absent (VO)	These are persons who have permanent residence in the given locality, who are absent at the time of registration. Their absence should not exceed 6 months
Temporary residents (VP)	These are persons who are at the time of registration in this locality, but who have permanent residence in another locality
Population indicators
Population at the end of the year	, where S n.y N - the number of births; M- the number of deaths; NS- the number of arrivals to a given settlement; V- the number of people who left this settlement
Average annual population	For a certain date for equal periods is calculated by the formula , where n- the number of levels (dates); S 1… NS- population size at a specific date. At the beginning and end of the year, it is determined as the arithmetic mean: , where S n.y- population size at the beginning of the year; S c.g- population size at the end of the year. In an interval series with unequally spaced levels, it is determined by the formula, where is the average population i-th period; - duration i-th period

Continuation of table. 3.1

Continuation of table. 3.1

The end of the table. 3.1

We calculate the population of the city according to the formula:

The total population of the city, people;

The number of the city-forming group, people;

Specific gravity service group,%;

Share of non-active population,%.

The size of the city-forming group is defined as the total number of workers in industry, external transport, construction organizations, research institutes and design institutes, as well as 25% of the number of students in the daytime department of universities and 15% of the number of students in technical schools and vocational schools.

Thus, the number of the city-forming group is:

Specific gravity

The proportion of the service group is, as a rule, 18-25% (we accept 25%), and the proportion of the non-active population, taking into account the expansion of the city's territories, is 40-46% (we accept 44%). Thus, the total population is:

According to the data of the individual task, we calculate the population living in areas with different number of storeys of buildings:

The size of the main territories of the city (according to the preliminary balance) is calculated using the formula:

Where is the area of ​​the territory, hectares;

Population size depending on the number of storeys of buildings, people;

HC - specific size of an element of the territory of a residential area, m 2 / person.

Area of ​​elements of residential areas

Based on table 2 of the guidelines, we determine the areas of elements of residential areas, city-wide centers, green spaces, storage areas, enterprises and structures of communal enterprises, forest parks, etc.

For example, the area of ​​residential quarters is for a 4-storey building:

The area of ​​the territory of residential streets and roads is assumed to be 16-18% (we accept 16%) of total area residential area and is, respectively:

The area of ​​the territories of universities, technical schools and vocational schools is determined depending on the number of students according to table 3 guidelines... We enter all the results obtained in table 1.

City territory balance

Table 1 - Preliminary balance of the city territory

Agricultural lands account for 20% of:

residential area + industrial area + sanitary protection zones + external transport area.

Biysk was located next to Gorny Altai and its minerals. The development of Biysk was also influenced by trade with Mongolia after the construction of a horse-drawn road through Kosh-Agach. The growth of Irkutsk was particularly favorably influenced by the proximity to Lake Baikal, the presence of rich hunting grounds and fertile lands, as well as deposits of salt and iron.
The discovery of Siberian gold deposits in the first quarter of the 19th century was a powerful impetus for the development of Tomsk, Krasnoyarsk, Mariinsk, Yeniseisk, Chita. There were offices of gold miners, workers were hired, supplies and tools were procured, commission agents, contractors associated with the mines acted. The cities experienced periodic influxes of mining people. For example, an official report on Chita in the middle of the 19th century noted: “There is a large crowd of workers in the city in the autumn, exactly in October after workers leave the mines, but they are immediately hired again to the gold mines and in Chita their very small number remains. ". It was gold that built and adorned these cities before it dries up. In the development of the urban economy, under the influence of gold mining, the intensification of construction activities began. Capitals began to flock here, population arrived and vigorous trade rushed. However, the same gold mining led to a complete decline in handicraft production in Yeniseisk. The city has become a supply center for taiga mines. Rich townspeople decorated their houses beautifully. But even today we have a lot of options on how to create coziness in the house. For example, you can buy glossy furniture for your rooms. Even the provincial Krasnoyarsk, in spite of the fact that it was the seat of many gold miners and the center of management of the fields, over the years has been adorned with only "a few churches and private buildings, but has not received the development that could be expected from the coincidence of favorable circumstances."
The gold mining industry has caused a new upsurge in practical research on the territory of Siberia. Simultaneously with the search for gold, there was an accumulation of information about the presence of other natural resources. In the taiga regions, remote from the existing settlement framework, numerous mining settlements were formed, which were connected by a new network of roads with the central settlements of the regions. At this stage of network formation settlements Simultaneously with the process of the accumulation of socio-economic potential in the main urban centers, there was a process of dispersal of settlements along new, secondary planning axes directed from the main settlement strip to the inland regions.
The proportion of the urban population of Siberia, which, however, had a constant growth trend, was at the level of the outlying regions of the European part of Russia: 7.2% in 1858, 8.5% in 1897, 11% in 1914. At the end of the 19th century, on average, the city had 8.2, and in 1917, 12.2 thousand inhabitants. Until almost the end of the 19th century, urban growth was moderate. Even a city like Irkutsk, which played the role of a leading center, grew slowly. In 1836, its population was about 20 thousand people, by the time of the reform of 1861 - 25, and by 1897 - 51.5 thousand people.