Throughout history, people have only solved their problems from a position of strength. Any war was a means of suppressing the enemy, resolving controversial issues. However, such skirmishes could not cause much harm either to the population or to the surrounding world. And only with the advent of people began to think that there could be no winners in it, the whole planet would perish.

However, some heads of state still do not understand the danger and escalate tension in the world. Therefore, it can flare up at the slightest provocation.

Today, there are three main players on the world stage that can give rise to: Russia, China and the United States. In our time, local non-nuclear wars are not waged for territory and/or human potential at all, they are waged for resources. And if in Russia there is an abundance of such resources, it even sells a significant amount of them, then in other countries, in particular the United States, the situation is somewhat different. They, under the guise of fighters for democracy, are trying to establish their own regime for unhindered mining. Russia is doing its best to prevent this, therefore, according to many analysts, the Third World War will begin in the coming years. The reason for this will be the clash of interests of the superpowers in resource-rich regions of the planet.

So, one of these regions are the countries of the East, which are not particularly developed militarily, but have huge oil reserves. Therefore, the US is actively pursuing its policy in the region, trying to establish its control over it. What are the invasion of Iraq in 2003 under the pretext of having chemical weapons in Saddam Hussein, which was never found, in Libya in 2011 under the guise of fighting for democracy, support for radical coups in Iran and Syria. All this could provoke the outbreak of the Third World War.

And in Europe the situation is no better. America is constantly destabilizing the situation in certain regions to increase its military presence, as is happening in Ukraine. Therefore, the beginning of the Third World War can come at any moment.

It is also worth mentioning China as a superpower. Having broken into the first positions in the world economy in the last few decades, he is already declaring his claims to world domination and may become the initiator of World War 3. The fact that the country has nuclear weapons, delivery vehicles, significant economic and military potential forces most Asian countries to reckon with their position and influences the policy of Russia and the United States. So far, Russia is in a neutral alliance with China, which slightly outweighs the scale against the United States and allows it to somewhat restrain their aggressive policy.

The confrontation between the two opposing camps is ongoing, it just has not yet entered its hot phase. After all, Russia and the United States are located on different continents, and in order to achieve a final victory, it is necessary to overcome a powerful coastal defense system throughout. Therefore, if the Third World War starts without the use of nuclear weapons, then over time it will definitely fire to finish off the losing enemy, or as a gesture of despair of the defeated.

Oddly enough, the outbreak of the Third World War is beneficial to China, which has all the necessary means to repel the strike of a small group of American missiles with nuclear weapons aimed at its territory. After its completion, he will be able to dictate his conditions to all countries in the post-nuclear world, because both superpowers - Russia and the United States will be seriously weakened, if not destroyed.

On the other hand, if the Third World War begins with the alliance of Russia and China, this will mean the complete destruction of the overseas enemy with relatively small losses, so by combining missile defense systems, we will be able to shoot down most of the warheads flying in our direction. And then our main enemy will be nuclear winter and radioactive contamination. The chances of civilization in this case are estimated as maximum. Therefore, Russia's friendship with China acts as a kind of guarantor of the military balance on the planet.

Do not discount other states with nuclear potential, which are quite capable of starting the Third World War. Several rockets that have taken off can be assessed by the automatic system as an attack and adequate countermeasures are taken.

When the Third World War starts, no one knows, but its beginning will mean the end of civilization, because the resources of the planet are simply not enough for re-development and a breakthrough to the stars.

China publishes first white paper - new interpretation military doctrine. It explains in plain language how the PRC views the world and how its army intends to act in the new conditions. One principle has remained unchanged since the days of Mao: there will be a third world war, and Beijing is ready for it. But there are innovations, and apart from innovations, bad news for the Russian military-industrial complex.

The presentation of the "White Paper" (and in such a manner uncharacteristic of the Chinese as a press conference) is a demonstration designed primarily for Europeans and Americans. At the same time, the press office of the State Council tried to arrange everything in such a way that the Chinese conceptual system was adapted to the European system of logic and ideas about geopolitics. In general, one gets the impression that the White Paper is not so much an addition to military doctrine as a long-awaited response from Beijing to changed circumstances, filed in such a way that everyone understands exactly what China wanted to say.

China's former military doctrines, formed under Mao, could not be called such from a Western point of view. These were more philosophical and geostrategic reflections on a thousand-year history than our usual clear definitions of threats and responses to them with a large number of technical terms and enumeration of the functions of military branches.

In China, everything is both simpler and more complicated. Since 1946, Beijing has been proceeding from the fact that a third world war is inevitable. At the same time, the Chinese themselves do not flatter themselves with stories that in ten years the PRC will overtake the whole world in terms of GDP - they do not need to let into their eyes the ideological dust with which they clogged the minds of analysts almost all over the world. The Chinese in their military doctrine honestly admit that in the third world war (whenever it happens and whoever starts it) they will fight against a technologically more equipped and advanced enemy. And they will not be able to eliminate this technological backlog during the entire 21st century, unless Europe, the USA and Russia fall into suspended animation.

Until very recently, the technological superiority of the enemy (it doesn’t matter who he is, although there are vague suspicions) was supposed to be countered by numerical superiority. Trample, run across, throw caps. Separate doctrines for the Navy and Air Force were not supposed at all, due to the practical absence of these branches of service. Actually, the question of the interaction of military branches was also not on the agenda. But the urgent and fundamental re-equipment of the army, which China was forced to begin about ten years ago, also required a more modern (read - Europeanized) view of military principles and military art, which has gone far ahead of time since the time of Lao Tzu. Meanwhile, the key position of the "White Paper" remained unchanged - there will be a third world war. It is explained that it will be caused by three factors: the hegemonism and power politics of one side, the widening gap between poor and rich countries, and the struggle for Natural resources.

The "people's war" doctrine is now obsolete. It was replaced by the doctrine of "active defense". Roughly speaking, China reserves the right to launch preventive local strikes if its defenses or borders are threatened. Of course, with reservations. Like, first it is supposed to use the entire arsenal of diplomatic, legal, informational and other "civilian" measures. Traditionally, the unsettled situation on the Korean Peninsula, the Taiwan problem and the ownership of the Spratly Island are considered to be dangers. An additional threat to Beijing remains the situation in Xinjiang, as well as piracy in the southern seas, from which China receives 80% of all oil. Tibetan separatists are also dangerous, but not to the same extent as the Uighurs. Still, Buddhists and Lamaists are historically less noticed in terrorism than Muslims. However, everything is changing, the same wheel of Samsara can be supplied with plastite.

The most significant change in military doctrine will affect (and has already affected) the navy. Beijing has already moved from a "coastal defense" strategy to a "coastal defense" strategy. In our understanding, this is just one more hieroglyph, but in practice it determined the Chinese fleet’s reaching a different qualitative level, allowing it to be permanently present in the depths of not yet the World Ocean, but in the Yellow, East China and South China seas. This is the result of technical and technological progress - until the second half of the 80s, China simply did not have ships of the sea zone. By the way, the only source of progress for China at one time was Russia, which regularly built modern ships for the PRC Navy. Moreover, the doctrine of re-equipment of the fleet in China is evolutionary and consistent: at this stage, they are building a fleet of the sea zone, relying on Russian destroyers of the Sovremenny type and diesel submarines. At the same time, the Chinese build a significant number of ships according to their own designs, and in general their shipbuilding program is perhaps the most ambitious in the world.

Only after the formation of three squadrons of the sea zone (traditionally, all military systems of China are divided into three geographical zones - North, Central and South, in which there is no Confucian revelation), Beijing will begin to form an ocean fleet, which will also consist of three squadrons, only in each should be on an aircraft carrier. Without an ocean fleet, neither the problem of Taiwan, nor the Spratly, nor Senkaku can be solved. But on this moment the Chinese fleet is more simulacrum than a real fighting force. In addition to Russian-built ships, much of the rest that floats is equipped with outdated weapons and, most importantly, has practically no modern air defense and anti-submarine defense. That is why artificial airfields on the Spratly Islands are so necessary; without them, the Chinese squadrons are an easy target for aircraft and submarines of potential opponents.

In the nuclear issue, China also admits its technological backwardness and is not officially going to strive for parity with world leaders. However, strategic nuclear forces are of great importance. Here, nothing has changed in the Chinese concept since the 1970s: strategic nuclear forces must inflict unacceptable damage on the enemy and, therefore, will be maintained at a sufficient quantitative and technical level for this. By their very nature, China's nuclear forces are offensive weapons, but international commitments and a "tactical defense" strategy do not call for them to be used first.

The modern air force for China is only a goal so far. Accelerated re-equipment involves the formation of new Air Force and Air Defense, more flexible and modern, with a large radius of action. At the moment, modern aircraft make up no more than 15% of the PRC Air Force fleet, and the share of modern air defense systems in the total arsenal is approximately the same. For the most part, this is either Russian aircraft, or their Chinese counterparts, which are basically worse than the original due to - again - the technological lag. In its current form, the Chinese Air Force is aimed at performing a very limited range of tasks, mainly to protect borders and support ground forces. Early warning means are only now beginning to enter the army, which will also increase the range of Chinese aviation.

The most important challenge now thrown to the Chinese army (and verbosely described in the White Paper) is a rapid transition to modern species management and methods of hybrid warfare, bypassing the entire second half of the twentieth century with its already almost meaningless experience of military art for China. In a word, the Chinese army should immediately get out of the state of the 60s, at best, the 70s, into the 21st century.

In order. It is necessary to fully computerize the entire control system, including strategic nuclear forces. It may seem unexpected, but the "country of hackers" has not yet established its own modern systems interaction between military branches and does not have the ability to use high-precision weapons to the proper extent. The White Paper points out precisely that the experience of recent decades has shown the importance of using high-precision means of coordinating various branches of the armed forces (this is another discovery for Beijing since the time of Lao Tzu - it is necessary to coordinate not only feng shui, but also branches of the military). The war of the future will be fought in "three-dimensional space", which will require coordination and space forces, intelligence and operations control systems. The boundaries between the front and rear in such conditions are erased, even the boundaries of reality are erased, so special attention in the new doctrine will be paid to the Internet and the war in it. The necessity of conducting “information wars” is especially emphasized, it is even supposed to create a separate branch of the armed forces, which will be entirely focused on conducting propaganda.

Informatization and computerization of the 2.5 million army (there are another 800 thousand strategic reserve and 1.5 million police units) as a whole should be achieved by 2020. By the same year, "general progress in the main areas of modernization" should be achieved. But the main task - "achieving the mainly strategic goal of creating an informatized armed forces" - should be completed by 2050. The Chinese are not only failing again with the notorious strategic thinking "for millennia ahead", they really will not be able to modernize the catastrophically outdated army in a shorter time.

True, the White Paper does not even give General characteristics reforming the ground forces themselves, all this colossal mass of foot soldiers. There is a fear that since the main position of the strategy - continental defense against a technologically more advanced enemy - has not changed at the macro level, then the modernization of the ground forces will also proceed according to the residual principle. This is bad news for the Russian military-industrial complex, which will have to sell not only aircraft and air defense systems, but also Armatas somewhere. And China, it seems, is not yet ready to go for a total rearmament of the ground forces, even though their weapons also lag behind their world counterparts. Attempts by the PRC to independently produce "borrowed" foreign samples, even in the case of small arms, failed over and over again - either the brand was not the same (and it is always not the same), then the cartridges are crooked.

The only exception of its kind is the rapid reaction force that Beijing is creating. This is about 300 thousand people who must be anywhere in China within 10 hours after receiving the order. This fits into the unchanging “continental defense” strategy, since one airborne corps, six infantry divisions and a marine brigade do not have means of delivery to greater distances, much less air cover or modern landing ships. If they can still be enough for the Spratly Islands, then in the case of Taiwan and the Japanese forces on the Senkaku Islands, they are no longer competitors. Moreover, the special forces battalions, formally included in these rapid reaction forces, are in fact attached to the territorial districts, and there are big doubts that they will be able to assemble them in one place in the required 10 hours.

Military spending by large countries, primarily the United States, China and Russia, continues to grow. A lot of budgetary funds go to the development of the latest types of weapons. Recently, the United States has openly stated that it considers space as a space for waging war. States are investing in drones and hypersonic technology. It is precisely such weapons that can become the main one in the third world war, if it does start. talks about the weapons of the future.

On Earth and in space

Deploying weapons in space provides almost limitless opportunities for destroying the enemy. While building missile bases on the Moon or taking an asteroid into Earth orbit and dropping it on a target sounds like science fiction today, the technology already exists to use space for warfare.

It is considered extremely promising to launch a ship with electromagnetic weapons (EMP) into low Earth orbit. An electromagnetic pulse can paralyze Electricity of the net and C4ISR (Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance) enemy command and control systems, communications, collection and computer processing of information, surveillance and reconnaissance.

An EMP missile launched from Earth orbit is much more difficult to intercept. Today, the United States, China, Russia, India, Japan and countries are capable of launching such weapons into space. EMR can be especially effective when used against "rogue states" (Iran and North Korea), which actually have nothing to answer.

No less promising is the deployment of directed energy weapons (laser weapons) on satellites to intercept ballistic missiles almost immediately after launch. Currently, in fact, the only space weapon can be considered maneuvering vehicles that are being tested by the United States, China and Russia, as well as numerous observation satellites.

Hypersonic cruise missiles

A feature of cruise missiles is the ability to maneuver. This allows you to evade enemy anti-missiles and extremely accurately hit the target. The main advantage of hypersonic missiles is their speed, which exceeds Mach five (more than six thousand kilometers per hour). It is extremely difficult to intercept such missiles. Hypersonic cruise missiles open up huge opportunities for the military. Such a missile is capable of hitting any target on the planet in less than an hour.

This served as the basis for the American concept of instant global strike PGS (Prompt Global Strike), developed since 2001. The military focused on the X-51A Waverider product, which develops speeds of Mach seven to eight, with a flight range of about two thousand kilometers and an altitude of up to thirty kilometers. It is planned to launch missiles from strategic aviation aircraft, and demonstration samples of weapons should be made in 2020.

Russia is also working on a hypersonic cruise missile. The first tests of Zircons were reported on March 17, 2016. In addition, projects in this area are being implemented in China and India.

Image: Lockheed Martin

Smart drones

The most important development in the defense industry in the last decade is the emergence of UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles). With the improvement of technology, drones take on more and more functions. It is possible that drones will completely replace manned aircraft in most combat missions.

While the vast majority of UAVs need a person - we are talking First of all, about remote management and control of the device. Moreover, key decisions regarding the elimination of a target are currently not made at all without human participation.

For example, the search for a target and the launch of the AGM-114 Hellfire, an American air-to-ground missile with laser or radar guidance, installed since 2007 on the MQ-1 Predator drone, requires human participation. However, UAVs will soon become fully autonomous.

This is due to the progress in the development of artificial intelligence (AI). Such systems will be able to independently make decisions concerning, among other things, life and death. This is exactly what scientists and businessmen mean by regularly reminding them of the dangers of uncontrolled development of AI.

Autonomous UAVs, endowed with the most advanced AI, will be able to work for a long time, and, if necessary, make an instant decision. The party to the conflict, which has such weapons, will receive a key advantage over the rest of the participants in hostilities. This is well understood in the US, China, EU countries and Russia.

“Artificial intelligence is not only the future of Russia, it is the future of all mankind. There are colossal opportunities and threats that are difficult to predict today,” the President of the Russian Federation said on September 1, 2017 at the Projectoria forum. In his opinion, "whoever becomes a leader in this area will be the ruler of the world."

Last Arguments

Promising types of new weapons also include stealth aircraft using stealth technology, railguns that accelerate a projectile electromagnetic field, and kinetic weapons operating from space. Nuclear weapons will also remain relevant, remaining the last argument in the war of the future, but large and expensive military submarines are likely to lose their special significance. They are becoming easier to detect with small, inexpensive drones.

The academician voiced a long-known truth: without the support of fundamental science, the potential applied research limited in time and eventually exhausted, as a result of which the country becomes technologically dependent on other states. “If we do not have the results of fundamental science, then our production and applied science will have to purchase the results of fundamental research abroad. And there, excuse me, they will sell not modern at all. We need the modern ourselves. They will sell what is out of need, ”Sergeev believes.

In China, for the first time published "White Book" - a new interpretation of military doctrine. It explains in plain language how the PRC views the world and how its army intends to act in the new conditions. One principle has remained unchanged since the days of Mao: there will be a third world war, and Beijing is ready for it. But there are innovations, and in addition to innovations, there is bad news for the Russian military-industrial complex.

The presentation of the "White Book" (and in such a manner uncharacteristic of the Chinese as a press conference) is a demonstration designed primarily for Europeans and Americans. At the same time, the press office of the State Council tried to arrange everything in such a way that the Chinese conceptual system was adapted to the European system of logic and ideas about geopolitics. In general, one gets the impression that the White Paper is not so much an addition to military doctrine as a long-awaited response from Beijing to changed circumstances, filed in such a way that everyone understands exactly what China wanted to say.

"War will be caused by three factors: hegemonism and power politics of one side, the growing gap between poor and rich countries, and the struggle for natural resources"

China's former military doctrines, formed under Mao, could not be called such from a Western point of view. These were more philosophical and geostrategic reflections on a thousand-year history than clear definitions of threats and responses to them with a lot of technical terms and enumeration of the functions of military branches.

In China, everything is both simpler and more complicated. Since 1946, Beijing has been proceeding from the fact that a third world war is inevitable. At the same time, the Chinese themselves do not flatter themselves with stories that in ten years the PRC will overtake the whole world in terms of GDP - they do not need to let into their eyes the ideological dust with which they clogged the minds of analysts almost all over the world. The Chinese in their military doctrine honestly admit that in the third world war (whenever it happens and whoever starts it) they will fight against an advanced enemy. And they will not be able to eliminate this technological backlog during the entire 21st century, unless Europe, the United States and Russia fall into suspended animation.

Until very recently, the technological superiority of the enemy (no matter who he is, although there are vague suspicions) was supposed to be countered by numerical superiority. Trample, run across, throw caps. Separate doctrines for the Navy and Air Force were not supposed at all - due to the practical absence of these branches of service. Actually, the question of the interaction of military branches was also not on the agenda. But the urgent and fundamental re-equipment of the army, which China was forced to begin ten years ago, also required a more modern (read - Europeanized) view of military principles and military art, which has gone far ahead since the time of Lao Tzu. Meanwhile, the White Paper's key position remained unchanged - there will be a third world war. It is explained that it will be caused by three factors: the hegemonism and power politics of one side, the growing gap between poor and rich countries, and the struggle for natural resources.

The "people's war" doctrine is now obsolete. It was replaced by the doctrine of "active defense". Roughly speaking, China reserves the right to launch preventive local strikes if its defenses or borders are threatened. Of course, with reservations. Like, first it is supposed to use the entire arsenal of diplomatic, legal, informational and other "civilian" measures. Traditionally, the unsettled situation on the Korean Peninsula, the Taiwan problem, etc. are considered to be dangers. An additional threat to Beijing remains, as well as piracy of the southern seas, from which China receives 80% of all oil. Tibetan separatists are also dangerous, but not to the same extent as the Uighurs. Still, Buddhists and Lamaists are historically less noticed in terrorism than Muslims. However, everything is changing, the wheel of Samsara can also be supplied with plastite.

The most significant change in military doctrine will affect (and has already affected) the navy. Beijing has already moved from a "coastal defense" strategy to a "coastal defense" strategy. In our understanding, this is just one more hieroglyph, but in practice it determined the Chinese fleet’s reaching a different qualitative level, allowing it to be permanently present in the depths of not yet the World Ocean, but in the Yellow, East China and South China seas. This is the result of technical and technological progress - until the second half of the 80s, China simply did not have ships of the sea zone. By the way, the only source of progress for China at one time was Russia, which regularly built modern ships for the Chinese Navy. Moreover, the doctrine of re-equipping the fleet in China is evolutionary and consistent: at this stage, they are building a fleet of the sea zone, relying on Russian destroyers of the Sovremenny type and diesel submarines. At the same time, the Chinese build a significant number of ships according to their own designs, and in general their shipbuilding program is perhaps the most ambitious in the world.

Only after the formation of three squadrons of the sea zone (traditionally, all military systems of China are divided into three geographical zones - North, Central and South, in which there is no Confucian revelation), Beijing will begin to form an ocean fleet, which will also consist of three squadrons, only in each should be . Without an ocean fleet, neither the problem of Taiwan, nor the Spratly, nor can be solved. But for now, the Chinese navy is more simulacrum than actual combat power. In addition to Russian-built ships, much of the rest that floats is equipped with outdated weapons and, most importantly, has practically no modern air defense and anti-submarine defense. That is why artificial airfields on the Spratly Islands are so necessary; without them, the Chinese squadrons are an easy target for aircraft and submarines of potential opponents.

In the nuclear issue, China also admits its technological backwardness and is not officially going to strive for parity with world leaders. However, strategic nuclear forces are of great importance. Here, nothing has changed in the Chinese concept since the 1970s: strategic nuclear forces must inflict unacceptable damage on the enemy and, therefore, will be maintained at a sufficient quantitative and technical level for this. By their very nature, China's nuclear forces are offensive weapons, but international commitments and a "tactical defense" strategy do not call for them to be used first.

The modern air force for China is only a goal so far. Accelerated re-equipment involves the formation of new Air Force and Air Defense, more flexible and modern, with a large radius of action. At the moment, modern aircraft make up no more than 15% of the PRC Air Force fleet, and the share of modern air defense systems in the total arsenal is approximately the same. For the most part, these are either Russian aircraft or their Chinese counterparts, which are basically worse than the original due to - again - technological lag. In its current form, the Chinese Air Force is aimed at performing a very limited range of tasks, mainly to protect borders and support ground forces. Early warning means are only now beginning to enter the army, which will also increase the range of Chinese aviation.

The most important challenge that the Chinese army is now facing (and described verbosely in the White Paper) is a rapid transition to modern types of command and control and methods of hybrid warfare, bypassing the entire second half of the 20th century with its experience of military art that is almost meaningless for China. In a word, the Chinese army should immediately get out of the state of the 60s, at best, the 70s, into the 21st century.

In order. It is necessary to fully computerize the entire control system, including strategic nuclear forces. This may seem unexpected, but the "country of hackers" has not yet established its own modern systems of interaction between military branches and is not able to use high-precision weapons to the proper extent. The White Paper points out precisely that the experience of recent decades has shown the importance of using high-precision means of coordinating various branches of the armed forces (this is another discovery for Beijing since the time of Lao Tzu - it is necessary to coordinate not only feng shui, but also branches of the military). The war of the future will be fought in "three-dimensional space", which will also require the coordination of space forces, intelligence systems and operations control. The boundaries between the front and rear in such conditions are erased, even the boundaries of reality are erased, so special attention in the new doctrine will be paid to the Internet and the war in it. The necessity of conducting “information wars” is especially emphasized, it is even supposed to create a separate branch of the armed forces, which will be entirely focused on conducting propaganda.

Informatization and computerization of the 2.5 million army (there are another 800 thousand strategic reserve and 1.5 million police units) as a whole should be achieved by 2020. By the same year, "general progress in the main areas of modernization" should be achieved. But the main task - "achieving the mainly strategic goal of creating an informatized armed forces" - should be completed by 2050. The Chinese are not only failing again with the notorious strategic thinking "for millennia ahead", they really will not be able to modernize the catastrophically outdated army in a shorter time.

True, the White Paper does not even give general characteristics of reforming the ground forces themselves, all this colossal mass. There is a fear that, since the main position of the strategy - continental defense against a technologically more advanced enemy - has not changed at the macro level, then the modernization of the ground forces will also proceed according to the residual principle. This is bad news for the Russian military-industrial complex, which will have to sell somewhere not only aircraft and air defense systems, but also. And China, it seems, is not yet ready to go for a total rearmament of the ground forces - even despite the fact that their weapons also lag behind world analogues. Attempts by the PRC to produce independently "borrowed" ones, even in the case of small arms, failed over and over again - either the brand was not the same (and it is always not the same), then the cartridges are crooked.

The only exception of its kind is the rapid reaction force that Beijing is creating. This is about 300 thousand people who must be anywhere in China within 10 hours after receiving the order. This fits into the unchanging "continental defense" strategy, since one airborne corps, six infantry divisions and a marine brigade do not have means of delivery to greater distances, much less air cover or modern landing ships. If they can still be enough for the Spratly Islands, then in the case of Taiwan and the Japanese forces on the Senkaku Islands, they are no longer competitors. Moreover, the special forces battalions, formally included in these rapid reaction forces, are in fact attached to the territorial districts, and there are big doubts that they will be able to assemble them in one place in the required 10 hours.

Russia will not take part in the Third World War between China and the United States, but Beijing will rely on military-technical support from Moscow. In The National Interest, Professor Robert Farley, a lecturer at the University of Kentucky (USA), a specialist in international relations and military history, considers scenarios for a possible World War III between the United States and China.

The very fact of the appearance of such a text indicates that the preparation of the two superpowers for a fight between themselves has moved from the realm of theory to the realm of practice. Farley meticulously analyzes the capabilities and goals of the parties and comes to the disappointing conclusion that the United States, even in the event of a victory, will lose more than China. He considers the possibility of using nuclear weapons, but does not allow the exchange of strikes to escalate into a global nuclear war. According to the scientist, it will not be easy to avoid the Third World War, but it is most beneficial for the United States to maintain the status quo.

How does the unthinkable happen? A century after the First World War, the question of unexpected wars again looks significant. What chain of events could lead to a war in East Asia, and how might that war develop?

The US and China are firmly linked by the trade routes of the Asia-Pacific region. Some argue that this makes war impossible, but the same was once said about the First World War.

In this article, we will leave out the operational and tactical details of a possible US-China war and consider the strategic objectives of the parties before, during and after the conflict. World War III between the US and China is sure to upend some aspects of East Asian geopolitics, but many key factors will remain unchanged. Unfortunately, the world is likely to remember this war only as the first of a series of US-Chinese wars.

Fifteen years ago, realistic answers to this question implied either a conflict over Taiwan or North Korea. A formal declaration of independence by Taiwan or an attack by North Korea on South Korea would force China and the United States, with great reluctance, but still enter into a major war.

A lot has changed since then. The sphere of Chinese interests has expanded, and China's capabilities have increased, and now we can imagine several different scenarios for the start of a future military conflict between China and the United States. The Taiwanese and North Korean scenarios are still possible, but they have added the struggle for the East China and South China Seas, as well as a possible conflict with India on the Tibetan border.

Several factors underlie this - China is growing stronger, China is dissatisfied with the established American system of regional security, and, finally, the numerous allied obligations of the United States in the region can become the cause of the Third World War. As long as these factors continue to operate, the possibility of war will persist.

Whatever the starting point of the conflict eventually becomes, the war will definitely not begin with a preemptive strike by the Americans on the Chinese fleet, air force and ground systems. Of course, the Americans would like to destroy China's air defenses before the Chinese can attack American aircraft, bases and ships, but it is hard to imagine a situation in which America would dare to pay a political price for the escalation of the conflict.

The US will need to take the first blow. This, of course, does not mean that the Navy and the Air Force will be idle under a hail of Chinese missiles, but for America to enter the Third world war it will almost certainly require a clear, open demonstration of Chinese intent to move into high-intensity conventional warfare.

Judging by the history of the First World War, the PLA army is unlikely to give America enough time to prepare for the first strike. At the same time, the blow of the "snow on the head" format is unlikely. Rather, the crisis will develop gradually, in the form of a series of incidents, and sooner or later America will have to take a number of steps that will let Beijing know that Washington is really ready for war. This will be the collection of aircraft carrier groups, the transfer of troops from Europe and the Middle East to Asia, the movement of aviation to the Pacific theater of operations. At this point, the Chinese will have to make a final choice between pursuing the conflict or abandoning it.

In the economy, Beijing and Washington will most likely apply sanctions (on the American side, most likely, multilateral ones) and freeze the assets of each other and the enemy's allies. For capital and consumers in the Asia-Pacific region and around the world, this will be a serious problem. In addition, the threat of a full-scale world war in the region will destabilize global transport routes and could seriously damage global industrial production.

Will US allies support a conflict with China? It will depend on how exactly the Third World War starts. If the reason is the final collapse of the DPRK, the US will probably be able to count on Korea and Japan. If a war starts over territorial disputes in the East China Sea, Japan will inevitably enter it. If the fight breaks out in the South China Sea, America can expect the support of some ASEAN states and Japan. So, Australia will certainly come to the aid of America in a variety of circumstances.

On the Chinese side, the situation with the allies is much simpler. China can count on friendly neutrality and arms supplies from Russia, but nothing more. The main task of Chinese diplomats will be to ensure and maintain the neutrality of potential allies of America. This will require extremely complex choreography, including reassurance of the peaceful nature of China's long-term goals and a show of confidence in China's victory (which will be followed by inevitable punishment for those who supported America).

North Korea presents a much more complex problem. Any intervention from North Korea creates the danger of retaliatory intervention from Japan and South Korea, and this alignment is absolutely not suitable for China. For the North Korean intervention to be profitable, Beijing must be sure that both Japan and South Korea are going to support the American side (unlikely, given their mutual hostility). Otherwise, the DPRK will have to be contained, not drawn into the conflict.

The United States will pursue the following goals:

Unless World War III breaks out on the Korean Peninsula, the first task involves either destroying the Chinese landing force or blocking reinforcements and supplies until the landing force surrenders. The second task will require a wide range of attacks against the Chinese air and fleet, including reserves. We can expect active strikes on air bases, naval bases and missile systems of the Chinese. The third task depends on the success of the first two. The defeat of the Chinese Expeditionary Force and the destruction of a significant part of the PLA and the Chinese Air Force can lead to internal unrest in the medium to long term. American strategists should focus on the first two tasks and hope that their success will have political consequences. Building a campaign around a broader "strategic" threat to the CCP's political goals would be unwise. This would result in a waste of resources, create a risk of further escalation, and could political system China's unpredictable effect.

The PLA will pursue the following goals:

The first task will require the PLA to land amphibious and possibly airborne assault forces to capture targets. The second will require the use of submarines, aircraft, cruise and ballistic missiles against the infrastructure and fleet of the United States and its allies in the region.

The third and fourth goals depend entirely on the success of the second. The PLA will need to inflict significant losses on the Americans so that future US leaders will not dare to use force against the PRC in the future. The survival of the American system of alliances depends on the ability of the United States to successfully repel Chinese aggression; in case of failure, it can fall apart and collapse.

The US has not lost a fighter jet in combat since the Kosovo War in 1999, or a major warship since World War II. The sinking of a warship is likely to be the largest simultaneous loss of manpower since the Vietnam War. However, American and Chinese strategists may equally overestimate America's fear of loss. The loss of a large ship with a crew can, on the contrary, rally American society(at least in the short term).

Dangerous moments of the military conflict between China and the United States

The most dangerous moment will come if the PLA decides to attack the American aircraft carrier. This would mean the most dramatic escalation of the conflict, apart from, of course, a nuclear strike. If China tries to sink an American aircraft carrier, World War III will inevitably move from a phase of demonstrative maneuvering to a phase of full-scale confrontation between fleets and armies.

The method of the attack itself is important. An attack by a ship or submarine allows the United States to openly hunt Chinese ships, but does not necessarily involve a retaliatory strike against air bases, missile systems, or even naval bases.

The most dangerous thing in this case is a ballistic strike, and not only because ballistic missiles are difficult to intercept - such missiles are capable of carrying nuclear charges. The situation in which one nuclear power uses ballistic missiles against another nuclear power, which also has a supposed nuclear advantage, is extremely complex.

The next such moment will come with the first US missile attack on Chinese targets. Given America's overwhelming nuclear advantage, the first wave of missile strikes will be a severe stress for China's civilian and military leadership. This will be especially important if the Chinese leadership thinks they are winning the convention war; in this case, the Chinese may decide that America is going to resort to nuclear weapons as a last resort.

It can be expected that the Chinese submarine fleet will be deployed even before the start of World War III. With the surface fleet, everything is somewhat more complicated. In any high-intensity conflict, the US Navy and Air Force will immediately attack any Chinese vessel that is spotted; probably the largest ships (aircraft carrier "Liaoning" and new large landing ships) will not even hide in ports.

The Chinese will take the surface fleet to sea only in two cases: first, if they feel that the fleet is covered enough to operate in relative safety. Second, if China's position becomes hopeless. In both situations, the most likely threat to the Chinese fleet will be American submarines.

In most of the scenarios considered, China achieves some strategic goal, and not the direct destruction of US or Japanese forces. This means that the fleet will have to capture from the sea, and then supply and defend a certain geographical point, most likely Taiwan or a foothold in the East China or South China Sea. The PLA would have to provide the fleet with the support needed to carry out such an operation.

Estimating the probability of one side winning is the hardest thing to do, because such an estimate involves many unknowns. We do not know how effective Chinese anti-ship ballistic missiles will be, how successful America will use electronic warfare against the Chinese fleet, how much the F-22 Raptor will outperform traditional Chinese fighters, how well the Chinese fleet will operate in real combat. Finally, we cannot predict exactly when World War III will start; both armies will look very different in 2020 than in 2015.

One way or another, the outcome of the war will be decided in these areas:

How will World War III between the US and China end?

The third world war, unfortunately, will not end with the signing of surrender on board the battleship. One of the parties will inevitably be defeated and bitter, and will immediately begin to prepare for revenge.

The best option for America would be the collapse of the Chinese government, similar to the collapse of the German Empire at the end of the First World War, or the collapse of the military government of Leopoldo Galtieri after the Falklands conflict. A humiliating military defeat and the destruction of a large part of the PLA and the Navy, combined with economic problems, could undermine the CCP's control over China. However, this is an unlikely scenario, and the US should not count on a new revolution after victory.

What if China wins? China can win by making the US come to terms with its goals, or by destroying the alliance system that motivates and legitimizes America's actions. The United States will not be able to continue the Third World War if South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines refuse it. Both options involve serious damage to US troops and potentially to the US economy.

The impact that defeat will have on American domestic politics is hard to predict. The US has "lost" wars in the past, but those defeats have ended in mere treaty renegotiations in areas peripheral to US national interests. It is not known how the American public will perceive defeat in World War 3 with an equal opponent, especially if this rival continues to build up economic and military power. The ratings of the president and the party that started the war will surely sink into the abyss, at least after the first shock of defeat has passed.

The biggest diplomatic challenge for both countries will be to find a way to surrender while keeping &honor." If World War 3 turns into a struggle for the survival of regimes or for national prestige, no one will win.

The likelihood of an American-Chinese conflict in the Pacific-Asian region depends on how the balance of economic and military forces will change. Germany remained the most powerful and largest state in central Europe, despite the First World War. Similarly, a war is unlikely to affect China's long-term prospects and intentions.

The key to peace lies in the resumption of productive economic ties between China, the US and other countries in the Asia-Pacific region. No matter how the Third World War goes, it is sure to disrupt established trade and investment patterns around the world. If one of the parties starts attacking (or, more likely, interning) the merchant fleet, companies and countries that have no interest in the outcome of the conflict will be in danger of ruin. At the same time, the US and Chinese governments are likely to come under intense pressure from lobbyists to reopen trade, at least in consumer goods.

It will not be difficult for China to make up for the losses. Even if the United States wipes out the PRC Air Force and Navy, Chinese shipbuilding and aircraft manufacturing will be able to restore what was destroyed in a decade, probably with the help of Russia. Moreover, a serious loss of China could inspire new life to Russian industry. In addition, World War 3 inevitably modernizes the PLA and the PRC Air Force through the destruction of obsolete equipment. Obsolete forces will be replaced by new modern aircraft and ships.

The loss of trained personnel will be noticeable, but the experience of a real war will help create a new, more effective officer corps. A new generation of Chinese soldiers, sailors and pilots will be trained in new, much more realistic programs. Whether the conflict ends in victory or defeat, a decade later, the Chinese army will be more dangerous than before.

It will be much more difficult for the United States to compensate for the damage, and not only because American ships and aircraft cost more than Chinese ones. Production of the F-15 and F-16 is almost over, and America no longer produces the F-22. American shipbuilding is in deep decline, and it will take a long time to make up for significant losses. This could lead to particularly serious problems if the Third World War revealed critical flaws in the F-35 JSF. Given the intention of the United States to equip the Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps with F-35 variants in the next ten years, proof of the uselessness of the JSF will further disrupt all mobilization plans.

The main question facing the US is &Is it worth it? Both victory and defeat will inflict serious military and economic damage on America. Even if the US wins, it won't solve the Chinese problem; Even if the CCP collapses, its heirs will still challenge China's coastal waters from the victors.

In theory, a victory could strengthen the American alliance system and greatly reduce the cost of containing China. If World War 3 begins with a hard move by the Chinese in the East or South China Sea, the United States can, without too much stretch, set China as the aggressor and establish itself as the main source of balance in the region. Chinese aggression could also spur US regional allies (Japan in particular) to increase defense spending.

World War III could breathe new life into America's government and society through a long-term project to contain China. The Americans could redouble their efforts in an attempt to outdo the Chinese army (but there is a danger of provoking a new arms race that could be fatal to both sides). However, China does not threaten the United States either ideologically or territorially, and it will not be easy for the population to sell it as an enemy.

Finally, another effective response available to the US is to withdraw from the East Asian political scene, at least in a military sense. Of course, this will be hard for many in America to bear; Generations of American politicians have cherished the dream of hegemony.

The window of opportunity for a US-Chinese World War 3 will, in all likelihood, be open for a very long time to come. Preventing this global war will require great skill and insight from diplomats and politicians. At the same time, attempts to best prepare for it will consume significant diplomatic, military and technical resources for the foreseeable future. However, we should not forget that at the moment, China and the United States together form the heart of one of the most productive economic regions in the history of this planet. It is worth fighting for, it is worth building on this foundation.