The general socio-economic situation in Russia. Where is the best place to live in Russia Socio-political and socio-economic situation

The main indicators of the socio-economic situation of the subjects Russian Federation in 2014

Some methodological notes

Production index- a relative indicator characterizing the change in the scale of production in the compared periods. Distinguish between individual and composite production indices. Individual indices reflect the change in the output of one product and are calculated as the ratio of the production volumes of a given type of product in physical terms in the compared periods. The composite production index characterizes the cumulative changes in all types of products and reflects the change in value created in the production process as a result of changes in only the physical volume of products. To calculate the consolidated production index, individual indices for specific types of products are gradually aggregated into indices by types of activity, subgroups, groups, subclasses, classes, subsections and sections of OKVED. Industrial production index - an aggregated production index by types of activities "Mining", "Manufacturing", "Production and distribution of electricity, gas and water". For the Russian Federation, data are presented with an allowance for informal activities.

The volume of work performed by the type of activity "Construction"- this is construction work performed by organizations on their own on the basis of agreements and (or) contracts concluded with customers. The cost of these works includes work on the construction of new facilities, major and current repairs, reconstruction, modernization of residential and non-residential buildings and engineering structures.

The data are given taking into account the volumes performed by small businesses, organizations of ministries and departments with military units, and the volume of work not observed by direct statistical methods in construction.

ANDIndex of the physical volume of work performed by the type of activity "Construction"- a relative indicator characterizing the change in the volume of work in the compared periods in comparable prices.

Retail turnover- represents the proceeds from the sale of goods to the population for personal consumption or household use. The cost of goods sold (released) to certain categories of the population at a discount or fully paid by the social protection authorities is included in the retail trade turnover in full. The retail turnover does not include the cost of goods sold (released) from the retail trade network to legal entities (including social organizations, special consumers, etc.) and individual entrepreneurs, as well as public catering turnover.

The retail trade turnover includes data both for organizations for which this activity is the main one, and for organizations of other types of activity that sell goods of their own production to the population through trade establishments on their balance sheets, or with payment through their cash desk. Retail turnover also includes the sale of goods by individual entrepreneurs, individuals in retail markets and fairs.

The retail trade turnover is formed according to the data of a complete federal statistical survey of organizations not related to small business entities, a sample survey of small retail trade enterprises (excluding microenterprises), which are carried out at monthly intervals, as well as quarterly sample surveys of retail markets, annual sample surveys of individual entrepreneurs and micro-enterprises with the dissemination of the obtained data to the general population of objects of observation. In addition, in accordance with the requirements of the system of national accounts, the retail trade turnover of trading organizations is calculated on the volume of activity that is not observed by direct statistical methods.

The index of the physical volume of retail trade turnover is a relative indicator characterizing the change in retail trade turnover in the compared periods in comparable prices.

The volume of paid services to the population represents the monetary equivalent of the volume of services rendered by residents of the Russian economy (legal entities and citizens engaged in entrepreneurial activity without forming a legal entity) citizens of the Russian Federation, as well as citizens of other states (non-residents) who consume certain services on the territory of the Russian Federation. This indicator is formed in accordance with the methodology for the formation of official statistical information on the volume of paid services to the population, approved by order of the Federal State Statistics Service of June 26, 2013 N 234 and entered into force on January 1, 2014 (hereinafter referred to as the new Methodology) on the basis of data from the forms of the federal statistical monitoring and evaluating unobservable activity in the service market.

The dynamics of the volume of paid services is characterized by the volume index calculated by comparing its value for the reporting and base periods in comparable prices. In order to ensure comparability in dynamics, the calculation of volume indices was made in relation to the data of 2013, recalculated according to the new Methodology.

Fixed capital investments- a set of costs aimed at construction, reconstruction (including expansion and modernization) of facilities, which lead to an increase in their initial cost, purchase of machinery, equipment, Vehicle, production and household equipment, for the formation of a working, productive and breeding herd, planting and growing perennial crops, investment in intellectual property: works of science, literature and art; software and databases for computers, inventions, utility models, industrial designs, breeding achievements, non-material search costs produced, costs of research, development and technological work, etc.

Data on investments in fixed assets are given taking into account the investment activity of small businesses and the volume of investments that are not observed by direct statistical methods.

Fixed capital investments include costs incurred at the expense of Money citizens and legal entities attracted by developer organizations for shared construction.

The costs of acquiring construction-in-progress and fixed assets in the secondary market are not included in the volume of investments in fixed assets.

Fixed capital investments are accounted for without value added tax.

Index of physical volume of investments in fixed assets- a relative indicator characterizing the change in the volume of investments in the compared periods. Calculated at comparable prices. Average annual prices of the previous year were taken as comparable prices.

Agricultural production index- a relative indicator characterizing the change in the volume of agricultural production by all agricultural producers (agricultural organizations, peasant (farmer) households, individual entrepreneurs, household farms) in the compared periods. Agricultural production index is an aggregated index of crop and livestock production. To calculate the index of agricultural production, the indicator of its volume in comparable prices of the previous year is used.

Total area of ​​residential buildings is defined as the sum of the areas of all parts of residential premises, including the area of ​​premises for auxiliary use, intended to satisfy citizens' household and other needs related to their living in a residential area, areas of loggias, balconies, verandas, terraces, calculated with appropriate reducing coefficients, as well as residential and ancillary premises in individual residential buildings built by the population. Auxiliary rooms include kitchens, lobbies, hallways, in-room corridors, bathrooms or showers, toilets, storerooms or utility closets. In boarding homes for the elderly and disabled, veterans, special homes for lonely elderly, orphanages, utility rooms include canteens, canteens, clubs, reading rooms, gyms, reception centers for consumer services and medical services.

The cost of a fixed set of consumer goods and services for interregional comparisons, the purchasing power of the population is calculated on the basis of uniform consumption volumes, as well as average prices in Russia and its constituent entities. The set includes 83 items of goods and services, including 30 types of food products, 41 types of non-food products and 12 types of services. The cost of the set is given per month.

The cost of the minimum set of food calculated by Rosstat, reflects the interregional differentiation of consumer price levels and is not a constituent element of the value living wage... When calculating it, in contrast to the value of the subsistence minimum, uniform, established as a whole for the Russian Federation, conditional volumes of food consumption and average consumer prices for them in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation are used.

Consumer price index- characterizes the change over time in the general level of prices and tariffs for goods and services purchased by the population for non-productive consumption. Measures the ratio of the value of a fixed set of goods and services in the prices of the current period to its value in the prices of the previous period.

The consumer price index in 2014 was calculated on the basis of price registration data for 506 types of goods (services) -representatives, which is carried out on the 21-25th day of each month in more than 66 thousand trade and service organizations in 272 cities on the territory of all constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Federation.

Price index in the primary and secondary housing markets are calculated on the basis of the registered prices for newly built apartments and for apartments of the functioning housing stock owned, if they are objects of market transactions.

Observation is carried out on a selective circle of organizations carrying out real estate transactions in territorial centers and individual cities of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. When registering prices for apartments, their quantitative and qualitative characteristics are taken into account. Average prices in the Russian Federation are calculated from the average prices prevailing in its constituent entities. The data on the amount of sold goods are used as weights. total area apartments separately on the primary and secondary housing markets, accumulated over the previous year.

Average monthly nominal accrued wages for the period is calculated by dividing the accrued fund wages employees for the average number of employees and for the number of months in the period. The payroll includes the amounts of wages and salaries accrued to employees in cash and non-cash forms for hours worked and not worked, compensation payments related to the work schedule and working conditions, additional payments and allowances, bonuses and one-time incentive payments, as well as payment for food and accommodation, which has systematic.

The data on the average monthly accrued wages are preliminary.

Real accrued wages characterizes the purchasing power of wages in reporting period due to changes in prices for consumer goods and services compared to the base period. For this, the index of real accrued wages is calculated by dividing the index of nominal accrued wages by the consumer price index for the same time period.

Real monetary incomes of the population- characterize the change in the monetary income of the population in the compared periods in comparable prices (adjusted for the consumer price index). Cash income of the population includes the income of persons engaged in entrepreneurial activity, paid wages (accrued wages adjusted for changes in debt) of employees, pensions, benefits, scholarships and other social benefits, property income in the form of interest on deposits, securities, dividends and other income.

Overdue wage arrears the amounts of wages actually accrued to the employees are considered, but not paid within the period established by the collective agreement or the contract for settlement and cash services concluded with the bank. The number of days of delay is counted from the next day after the expiration of this period.

Unemployed(in accordance with the standards of the International Labor Organization - ILO) - persons of the age established for measuring the economic activity of the population who, in the period under review, simultaneously met the following criteria:

did not have a job (profitable occupation);

were looking for work, i.e. applied to the state or commercial employment services, used or placed advertisements in the media, the Internet, directly addressed the administration of the organization or the employer, used personal contacts or took steps to organize their own business (searching for land, buildings, machinery and equipment, raw materials, financial resources, applying for permits, licenses, etc.);

were ready to start work during the survey week.

Students in educational institutions, pensioners and disabled people were counted as unemployed if they did not have a job, were looking for a job and were ready to start it.

Information about the total number of unemployed given according to the data of a sample survey of the population on the problems of employment. The ratio of the number of unemployed to the number of economically active population (employed and unemployed), calculated as a percentage, characterizes unemployment rate.

Unemployed people registered with state employment services- able-bodied citizens who do not have work and earnings (labor income), residing in the territory of the Russian Federation, registered with state employment services at their place of residence in order to find a suitable job, looking for a job and ready to start it. Information on the number of unemployed who have received official status in state institutions of the employment service is developed by the Federal Service for Labor and Employment of the Population.

The need of employers for workers, declared to the state institutions of the employment service- the number of vacancies (required workers) reported by employers to state employment service agencies.

Information about births, deaths are obtained on the basis of the statistical development of data contained in the records of acts of birth, death, compiled by the civil registry authorities. Births include only those born alive.

Natural movement of the population- a generalized name for the totality of births and deaths that change the population in the so-called natural way. The natural movement of the population also includes marriages and divorces, although they do not change the population size, but are counted in the same order as births and deaths.

For the purpose of statistical comparability, the data for the Russian Federation for 2013 were recalculated taking into account the data for the Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol.

Indicators are preliminary, according to monthly registration data for January-December of the corresponding year.

Data on population migration obtained as a result of the development of documents for statistical accounting of arrivals and departures from the territorial bodies of the Federal Migration Service. Statistical records of migrants are compiled upon registration and deregistration of the population at the place of residence, as well as (since 2011) upon registration at the place of stay for a period of 9 months or more. Deregistration is carried out automatically in the process of electronic processing of data on migration of the population during movements within the Russian Federation, as well as after the expiration of the period of stay with migrants, regardless of the place of previous residence.

In order to ensure statistical comparability, the migration growth in the Russian Federation for 2013 was calculated taking into account data for the Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol. For January-December 2014, the data are preliminary.

The size of the subsistence minimum in accordance with the Federal Law of October 24, 1997 N 134-FZ "On the subsistence minimum in the Russian Federation" represents the cost estimate of the consumer basket, as well as mandatory payments and fees. The consumer basket includes a minimum set of food products, as well as non-food products and services, the cost of which is determined in relation to the cost of the minimum set of food products necessary to preserve human health and ensure his life. The consumer basket as a whole in the Russian Federation is established by the Federal Law of December 3, 2012 N 227-FZ "On the consumer basket as a whole in the Russian Federation", in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation it is established by the legislative (representative) bodies of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The subsistence minimum is determined quarterly and is established: in Russia as a whole - by the Government of the Russian Federation, in the constituent entities of Russia - in the manner established by the laws of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation.

On the basis of the Federal Law of December 3, 2012 N 233-FZ "On Amendments to the Federal Law" On the Subsistence Minimum in the Russian Federation "since 2013, the procedure for calculating the amount of the subsistence minimum has been changed for the whole of the Russian Federation and in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, except for the Samara region.

The data for the Arkhangelsk and Tyumen regions (taking into account the autonomous regions) are not established by the executive authorities.

Consolidated budget of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation- the budget of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation and the set of budgets of municipalities that are part of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation (excluding interbudgetary transfers between these budgets).

Statistical indicators for the Republic of Crimea and the federal city of Sevastopol... For the formation of official statistical information on the Russian Federation, taking into account the new constituent entities of the Russian Federation, statistical observation in the Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol should be integrated into the system of Russian state statistics so that indicators and data on them are formed on the basis of Russian statistical methodology.

During the transition period - until the end of 2014 - the formation of official statistical information on the Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol was carried out on the basis of temporary methodological guidelines approved by Rosstat for organizing statistical observations, calculating indicators and the procedure for providing data in certain areas of statistical accounting.

More detailed information about the socio-economic situation of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation can be obtained in the public domain on the official website of Rosstat www.gks.ru .

federal Service state statistics

Currently in the Russian Federation there is a downward trend in economic activity. So, from January to November 2015, the country's GDP decreased by 3.8%. The real disposable cash income of the population, compared to 2014, decreased by 3.5%, and the real wages of employees of organizations by 9.2%. Real incomes of the population, wages and pensions decreased in 73 regions of the country.

Stagnation is observed in industrial production, the only exception is the extraction of minerals (a decrease of only 0.1%, yoy). As of November 2015, sales of industrial products remain in the red. However, demand continues to decline not as intensely as in previous months (Bozhechkova, Burdyak, Grishina, 2015). Industrial production is shrinking due to rising costs, a lack of investment and a low level of demand caused by the decline in real incomes of the population.

An analysis of the socio-economic situation of the population shows that about half of them note the deterioration of the economic situation in the country, and a third of the respondents believe that this situation will continue for one or two years or more. Due to the rise in prices, the population of the country is reducing its consumption. The consumer price index for 2015 increased by 12.1%, which indicates an increase in the cost of the basic basket of goods and services and, as a result, the transition of households to a selective savings model of consumption.

As of November 2015, the number of unemployed in Russia is 4.4 million (5.8% of the economically active population). At the same time, the number of part-time workers who are idle at the initiative of the administration and on vacation is 258.5 thousand people. A factor in the increase in the unemployment rate is the decrease in the need of employers for employees, for example, in November 2015, the number of vacancies decreased by 81 thousand. The number of employees in organizations is also declining by an average of 1% per year across the country. In the last months of 2015, there was an increase in wage arrears, which as of December 1 amounted to 3.9 billion rubles. Wage arrears have increased significantly in the production and distribution of electricity, in construction and transport.

At the end of January-November 2015, the retail trade turnover decreased by 9.3%. Moreover, the share of retail trade in food products is growing steadily. At the same time, the level of inventory in retail trade remains stable and in November is 38 days.

The volume of paid services rendered to the population remains negative. The decline in this area is influenced by the reduction in consumption of the group of "obligatory" services to the population, such as communication services, transport and housing and communal services, which account for 60% in the structure of paid services of the population. In segments such as services physical culture and sports, cultural institutions, hotels and similar accommodation, as well as sanitary and health and medical services, an increase in volume has been observed. Therefore, in connection with the situation on foreign exchange market and the weakening of the ruble, a part of the country's population cannot afford holidays abroad, preferring domestic tourism.

The issuance of loans to the population in 2015 decreased due to the tightening of the rules for their issuance, an increase in interest rates on loans, changes in the foreign exchange market and a decrease in activity in the housing market. After paying off the loan, borrowers do not take new ones, which reduces the population's debt to banks in general, but the share of overdue loans is growing.

Imbalances persist in Russia regional development, which took shape back in Soviet times and are still manifested at all levels, from federal districts to municipalities. The regions of the Russian Federation can be divided into five groups (Belkina, 2015):

• 1. Large cities with developed modern sectors of the economy, including post-industrial ones. These cities are characterized by a high degree of development of the service sector and human capital, as well as a well-developed infrastructure. The cities of this group are the political and financial centers of the country. Examples of such cities are Moscow and St. Petersburg.
• 2. Regions with developed industrial production. These regions are characterized by the presence of machine-building industries, the chemical industry, high-tech instrumentation, and so on. In this group, just like in the first, there is a high degree of infrastructure and human capital development. Examples of regions from this group are Moscow and Leningrad regions, as well as some cities of the Urals.
• 3. Special economic zones in which favorable conditions have been created for conducting economic activity... These regions are characterized by a favorable geographical position, which is manifested in the presence of ports, intersections of transport communications, border position with developed countries and a favorable climate. There are four types of special economic zones: industrial-production, tourist-recreational, technology-innovative and port. Examples of these regions are the Murmansk Region, the Republic of Tatarstan and the Stavropol Territory.
• 4. Regions specializing in the extraction, processing and export of raw materials. This group includes regions that produce products with low added value that are in demand on the world market. Examples of regions from this group are the Tyumen and Sakhalin regions, the regions of the Urals and Siberia.
• 5. Regions remote from the center (periphery). These regions are characterized by low levels of human capital and / or population density. The infrastructure in them is rather poorly developed. They are dominated by poorly mechanized and agricultural production. There are also mono-industrial regions. Examples are the regions of the northern part of the country, Eastern Siberia, Of the Far East, Lower Volga region, North Caucasus and others.

The first four groups of regions are considered to be regions of advanced development, all of them are characterized by the high quality of human capital and developed infrastructure for the country, which allows maintaining a relatively high standard of living of the population. The regions of the fifth group are considered to be lagging regions. During the Soviet period, large production and research centers were created in a number of them, but later they were ruined and closed. Currently, these regions are subsidized, characterized by a low standard of living in comparison with other regions of the Russian Federation and high mobility of the population, which prefers to move to more attractive regions.

In the first half of the 2000s, inequality between regions gradually decreased in Russia. As before, clear leaders stood out, Moscow and St. Petersburg, which remained the centers of the country's economic and political life, but the gap between all regions of Russia was narrowing from year to year.

This process slowed down and practically stopped in 2008. Due to the financial crisis, many large projects in the regions were canceled and frozen, which contributed to the deterioration of the economic climate both in them and in the country as a whole. This period is characterized by a refusal to invest in projects with a long payback period, the withdrawal of investments from the country and an increase in the mobility of the population. Subsequently, as the economic situation improved, the disparities between the regions began to decrease again, but new wave economic crisis and the sanctions applied to Russia can again stop this process (Kuznetsova, 2015).

Such a development of the situation could not but affect the state and development opportunities in the regional systems of school education. It is necessary to consider in more detail the changes in school education in the country as a whole.

Financing of education in 2015 in the country sharply to 405.54 billion rubles. For comparison, in 2014, 3,037.29 billion rubles were spent on education. Thus, over the year, even without recalculating into comparable prices, government funding has decreased by more than 7 times.

The reduction in funding, in particular, is associated with the law on the normative per capita financing of educational institutions that came into force. The budget of educational institutions began to directly depend on the number of students. However, the amount of payment per student differs significantly in different regions of the country, since it depends on the regional calculated per capita rate, which is determined according to the regional budget. This situation leads to a gap between the regions in terms of such an important indicator from the point of view of motivation as the ratio of the efforts spent by the teacher and the salary received by him. This favors the relocation of teachers to more attractive regions.

Despite significant objective differences in the standard of living, no significant difference was found in the perception of schoolchildren by parents in different regions (Klyachko, Avraamova, Loginov, 2014). Regardless of the region of Russia, parents make the same demands on teachers and expect similar results. The difference in the salaries of teachers in different regions does little to stimulate a reduction in the differentiation of schools in terms of the quality of education.

There is a tendency towards a decrease in the number of secondary educational institutions in the country. So for the period from 2012 to 2015, their number decreased from 46.2 thousand secondary educational institutions to 42.6 thousand. At the same time, the number of students in the same period increased from 13 713 thousand people to 14 666 thousand Rosstat). Therefore, given this tendency, we can say that the number of students studying in one educational institution will increase. And in connection with the per capita financing of educational institutions, the amount of funding for a separate secondary educational institution will increase in direct proportion to the increase in the number of students.

With the introduction of the compulsory USE in the Russian Federation, a universal criterion for assessing the activities of teachers and the school as a whole was formed. As the country develops, the attitude towards the activities of teachers on the part of the leadership and parents of students gradually changes (Avraamova, Belyakov, Klyachko, 2015).

As a result, a study of educational institutions in four regions of Russia showed that competition between schools has intensified, and not only for attracting new students, but also teachers. Thanks to the USE results and the availability of information in open sources, most parents try to send their children to those schools that have the best performance. Accordingly, schools are interested in attracting teachers who are more focused on preparing for the Unified State Exam.

At the same time, only 25% of parents believe that school preparation for passing the exam will be sufficient. Most prefer to apply for additional education to tutors in all subjects of interest. Teachers largely agree with the opinion of the parents. Thus, only 33% of the teachers surveyed believe that most schools can provide students with the knowledge and skills to pass the State Examination and Unified State Examination for high scores without additional training.

As a result, the requirements of parents to school are reduced to three main areas: to give children the knowledge necessary in their future life and work; provide socialization; instill a propensity for sports and productive leisure activities. Moreover, specialized schools cope with this task better (Klyachko, Avraamova, Loginov, 2014). However, the assessments of the implementation of these tasks remain at a low level. Only 45% of the parents surveyed believe that these tasks are being implemented at least to some extent.

Thus, there is a change in the perception of the goals of school and school education on the part of pupils' parents, who are one of the most important categories of stakeholders, which largely determines the own goals of secondary education organizations. Accordingly, the system of motivation of teachers may gradually change, which inevitably begins to be pressured by the opinion that the most important function of the school is the socialization of children, while the knowledge for admission to higher educational institutions is "acquired" from tutors or from themselves, speaking in this capacity, but on a private basis.

In 2013, schools in Russia switched to paying teachers, depending on the success of their students. An increase in wages occurs in the form of an increase in the bonus part when students achieve certain success. Success criteria are expressed in prizes at various conferences and competitions, as well as in the results of the Unified State Exam, the State Examination Agency and various monitoring.

This payment system has existed in European countries for several years. According to the research results, the performance of students after the introduction of remuneration, depending on the success of the students, improves the performance of the latter by 25% in mathematics and literature, and by 15.4% in other subjects (Woessmann, 2011). At the same time, no direct connection was found between the size of the dependent part of the teacher's salary and the academic performance of students. That is, the size of the teacher's remuneration in the event of the success of his students does not have a significant effect on the student's academic performance, the only important thing is the fact that the salary is directly related to the students' grades.

The population of the country in 2015 was 146.3 million people (an increase of 2.6 million people compared to 2014), which indicates that the demographic rise within the country continues. To provide the population with secondary education, 42.6 thousand general education organizations function, in which at the beginning of 2015 14666 thousand people studied and 1054 thousand teachers worked (according to Rosstat data).

It should be noted that the number of students in general education institutions since 2008 was on average 137 thousand people, while the number of teachers in 2009 decreased by 304 thousand and continued to decline until 2014. Consequently, the average the number of pupils per teacher has increased. So, in 2008 it was 9.77 students, and now it is 13.91 people (according to Rosstat).

The ongoing education reform in Russia is uniting general education and preschool institutions into single centers, which contributes to a reduction in funding for education in general. The consequence is that some of the teachers in connection with the emerging changes are forced to look for a new job.

The Russian economy is a multicomponent complex of economic and other activities, consisting of a relatively developed agro-industrial sector and the service sector. Despite the development of private entrepreneurship and the privatization of a number of economic objects, the state and state-owned companies control about 70 percent of the country's GDP. At the same time, the current socio-economic situation in Russia can be considered unsatisfactory.

Russia's place in the world economy

In the global economy, Russia ranks sixth in terms of GDP. In 2017, the country's total gross domestic product was about $ 4 trillion. In terms of nominal GDP, our country is in 11th place in the world, and its volume is $ 1527 billion. At the same time, in terms of GDP per capita, the Russian Federation is only in 48th place.

The total contribution of Russia and the world economy is also small and amounts to 3.2%, and in the sector of world assets - 1%.

Changes in the country's economy in the historical past

In the 19th century, the socio-economic position of Russia was at a very low level. During the Soviet period, the country's economy was stable and planned. The decisive role was played by the economic sectors: mining, processing, and agricultural. GDP per capita was small, but there was little social inequality. But in the late 1980s, something went wrong, as a result of which the old system collapsed and was replaced by a poorly organized market system. A sharp decline in production began, a rise in prices, a drop in investment, an increase in foreign loans, a decrease in residents' incomes and other negative phenomena.

At the same time, the economy was reoriented from the planned to the market one. Despite tough tax laws, there has been systematic tax evasion. Also characteristic of the 90s was an increase in the gap in the standard of living of different Russian regions.

Economy of the 2000s

The zero years were the most successful in terms of the recovery of the Russian economy. Annual GDP growth during this period ranged from 5.1-5.2% in 2001 and 2008 to 1% in 2000 and 8.5% in 2007. Growth was recorded in the industrial and agricultural sectors, as well as in construction. The incomes of the population were growing. Poverty reduction was 16% (from 29 in 2000 to 13 in 2007).

Taxation has become more liberal and tax collection has increased. A flat scale has been established for income tax. In general, the number of taxes decreased by 3 times (from 54 to 15). In particular, the income tax was cut.

In 2001, land ownership was introduced. Other reforms were also carried out: banking, pension, preferential, labor and other types. Since 2006, the ruble has become a freely convertible currency.

The country's economy after 2010

Until 2014, the state of the economy remained favorable. After recovering from the local crisis of 2008-2009, there was a rapid recovery and further growth of the country's GDP. In 2012, Russia entered the World Trade Organization, which could have affected the further fate of the country. From the same year, the progressive trend in the economy began to break. If in 2010 and 2011 the annual GDP growth was about 4,%, then in 2012 - 3.3, and in 2013 - only 1.3 percent. The growth of industrial production declined even more. The export of capital from the country has increased.

A sharper deterioration in the economy began in 2014, which is largely due to the fall in oil prices, and at the end of this year, and with the introduction of economic sanctions. The population's incomes began to decline, and a sharp increase was noted. Officially, the economic crisis started in December 2014.

Socio-economic situation in modern Russia

The sharpest decline in the socio-economic well-being of the country occurred in 2015-2016. Oil prices collapsed almost 4 times, reaching the bottom in early 2016, after which they began to gradually recover. This led to a sharp depreciation of the ruble against the dollar and euro. Export revenue fell sharply.

During this period, the incomes of the population fell noticeably, while prices, on the contrary, increased. The rise in prices hit particularly hard on the most important consumer goods: food and medicine. Increased cost transport services... Unemployment rose sharply (primarily due to the unofficial unemployed). The peak of the decline in incomes of the population fell on 2016, and GDP - in 2015. This is evidenced by Rosstat data on the socio-economic situation in Russia.

A significant number of workers began to receive wages below the established at that time the subsistence level.

In 2017, the situation began to gradually improve. The growth of the country's GDP and a sharp decline in inflation were noted. Salaries in some industries increased, but overall income levels continued to decline. The debt burden on the population and the number of hopeless debtors increased.

In 2018, despite the sharp (up to $ 75 per barrel) rise in oil prices, the socio-economic situation in the country remained tense.

Features of the economy at the end of 2017 - the first quarter of 2018

In 2017, significant shifts took place in the global economy, which have an impact on our country. The OPEC + Russia deal, which has already become historic in scale, stimulated the growth of prices for hydrocarbons. After the collapse of oil prices at the beginning of 2016 to $ 25-30 per barrel, they began to gradually recover, but until mid-2017 they were kept at around $ 50 / barrel. From the second half of this year, within several months, they rose to 70-75 dollars per barrel, after which they fixed at this level. At the same time, a rise in prices for other Russian export goods was noted: metals, coal, timber.

These values ​​are much higher than the baseline budgeted ($ 40 per barrel). Thus, this should be an incentive for the recovery of the country's economy. However, the opinions of experts are not yet so optimistic. Many people point to the urgent need for transformation that could form the basis for future growth. As long as the income of the population continues to gradually decline, and the economy grows too slowly or even stagnates. At the end of 2017, a decrease in industrial production was noted, and the income of the population for this year decreased, contrary to the forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development, which gave them a slight increase.

Not now consensus regarding the future development of the situation. Among the experts there are both optimists and pessimists. Optimists, like officials, expect economic growth to resume in 2018.

Predictions for 2018

Information about the social and economic situation in Russia is provided by official structures. According to economists' forecasts, in 2018 inflation will be 4% and GDP growth will be 1.44%. At the same time, incomes of the population are expected to grow up to 2 percent. The total volume of investments will grow by 2.2 - 3.9%. However, according to Oreshkin, due to the lack of the required reforms, economic growth will be lower than it is necessary for the progressive development of the country.

Among the negative factors, experts point out the following:

• High dependence of the domestic economy on hydrocarbon prices. In this regard, they do not observe any positive shifts.
• Insufficient level of government.
• An unfavorable demographic situation and an increase in the number of pensioners.
• The sanctions policy of the West, which limits the opportunities for the country's development.

Among other factors, analysts point out the resumption of growth in capital outflow.

The situation in the regions

In Russia, there is a pronounced difference between the level of economic development in different administrative regions. The socio-economic situation of the regions of Russia is often not the same and can differ in different indicators. In the first place according to these parameters is the city of Moscow. This is followed by the Republic of Tatarstan, then Khanty-Mansiysk autonomous region... The Moscow region is in fifth place, the Tyumen region is in sixth. The seventh line is occupied by the Krasnodar Territory, and the eighth - by the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug. The ninth and tenth places are occupied by Yakutia and Krasnoyarsk Territory, respectively.

In the last places are: Kurgan region, Karachay-Cherkessia, Pskov region, Kalmykia, Ingushetia, Ivanovo region, Kostroma region and some other regions of the country.

Conclusion

Thus, the socio-economic analysis of the situation in Russia shows the vulnerability of the Russian economy to external challenges. He also talks about the need to change the economic course. Our country has every chance to achieve high indicators, since in terms of diversity and quantity natural resources Russia ranks first in the world. A competent and well-thought-out economic policy could make it one of the leaders in terms of economic and social development.

Experts' opinions on the development of the economic situation in Russia in 2018 are fundamentally different. Optimists share the officials' point of view and expect growth to resume. Pessimists emphasize the vulnerability of the domestic economic model to external challenges, which could lead to a new period of turbulence.

The Russian economy is recovering from the crisis, which is reflected in the improvement of macroeconomic indicators. According to forecasts of IMF experts, the economic situation in Russia in 2018 will maintain positive trends. Domestic GDP growth will accelerate to 1.44%, while inflation will approach 4%. In addition, unemployment rates will remain at 5.5%. Such estimates coincide with the forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development, where the resumption of sustainable economic growth is expected.

The head of the department Maxim Oreshkin expects GDP growth at the level of 1.5-1.7%. At the same time, the real incomes of the population will grow to 2%, and the growth of investments will reach 2.2-3.9%. Despite the resumption of growth, Oreshkin notes the lagging behind the growth rates of the Russian economy, which is associated with the lack of necessary reforms.

Experts also note other factors that will restrain the development of the domestic economy.

Obstacles to the domestic economy

The head of the Center for Strategic Research, Alexei Kudrin, notes the factors that could worsen the economic situation in Russia in 2018:

1. The Russian economy remains dependent on oil prices, which remains the main factor of instability. In fact, the old economic model, which proved to be ineffective during the crisis, continues to operate.
2. Low efficiency of public administration institutions, which negatively affects economic incentives.
3. Demographic factors create imbalances for the pension system. The number of pensioners per employee continues to increase, which leads to an increase in the Pension Fund deficit.
4. The existing sanctions restrict access to foreign financial markets. As a result, the Russian economy is deprived of resources for development.

In addition, experts point out capital outflow, which will worsen the dynamics of the domestic economy in the medium term. In the first 4 months of 2017, this indicator reached $ 21 billion, which is twice the dynamics of the previous year.

In such conditions, the deterioration of the external situation is fraught with new shocks for the domestic economic model. Without structural reforms, the Russian economy will not enter a sustainable growth trajectory.

Structural reforms

Ministry of Finance representatives note a number of reforms that will help improve the economic situation in 2018. The agency's experts intend to reduce the dependence of the Russian economy on fluctuations in the oil market. In addition, the Ministry of Finance intends to improve the financial system and review the administrative burden on business representatives.

The main goal of the Ministry of Finance is to ensure sustainable annual economic growth at the level of 3.0-3.5%. To do this, the department plans to change the current budget rules, which will help rid the economy of oil dependence. Previously, the lion's share of revenues from energy exports was used to finance the expenditure side, which created preconditions for economic crises. Representatives of the Ministry of Finance propose to concentrate these resources to accelerate economic growth.

In addition, for the sustainable growth of the Russian economy, it is necessary to modernize business administration and tax policy. At the same time, the Ministry of Finance plans to reduce the burden on bona fide market participants and increase tax collection. The main priority of the Ministry of Finance remains to reduce the volume of the shadow economy, which will significantly increase budget revenues.

Officials expect to significantly improve the investment climate, which will provide the economy with the necessary resources for development. Also, the department is concerned about the lack of efficiency of public administration, which leads to additional financial losses.

Despite the restoration of positive dynamics, experts do not exclude the resumption of the crisis. The pessimistic outlook for 2018 suggests a significant deterioration in the economic situation.

New fall

The main factor that may lead to the implementation of the pessimistic scenario remains a sharp decline in oil prices. Experts admit a collapse of quotations to $ 40 per barrel, which will be a new shock for the domestic economy.

Despite the improvement in macroeconomic indicators, the economic situation remains extremely vulnerable. The authorities have not created the foundation for a new economic model, which may lead to a recurrence of the crisis. Moreover, for 2015-2016. the officials used most of the financial reserves, which will significantly limit the government's ability in the next drop in prices for "black gold".

Future economic growth depends on the extension of conditions for the reduction of oil production, analysts emphasize. In addition, the intention of China and India to use electric vehicles more actively leads to a decrease in oil demand, which will impede the restoration of the balance in the market. In such conditions, the cost of a barrel may collapse to $ 40 and remain at this level throughout 2018.

The economic situation in 2018 will maintain positive dynamics. GDP growth will reach 1.5%, the government is confident, and inflation will slow down to 4%. To accelerate economic growth, it is necessary to implement structural reforms, which will reduce the dependence of the Russian economy on external factors.

A new collapse in oil prices could trigger the implementation of a pessimistic scenario that presupposes a new period of crisis.

Socio-economic situation in the Russian Federation at the present stage.

The heavy economic legacy inherited from the USSR made it difficult to carry out reforms in Russia. Yet since January 1992 ᴦ. the Russian government, headed by Ye. T. Gaidar, embarked on economic reforms designed to ensure the transition to a market, to legitimate private property. By this time, the country was in an extremely difficult situation. Over the past year, prices have increased by 8-11 times, the gross national product has decreased by 15-20%. There were practically no industrial goods or foodstuffs left on the store shelves. The mining industries and the military-industrial complex predominated in the Russian economy, gigantomania flourished, many enterprises produced unnecessary, outdated products. The economic reform program to bring the country out of the crisis included a number of measures: liberalization of prices for most goods, that is, abandonment of their administrative regulation, freedom of trade and privatization - the sale of most of the state property to private individuals. The chosen path of "shock therapy", according to the supporters of the so-called monetary model of the economy, should have led to an equilibrium between effective demand (of enterprises and the population) and the supply of goods. It was believed that in the end it would be possible to achieve economic stabilization and create the necessary conditions to lift it. At the same time, the optimistic forecasts were not confirmed. Liberalization of prices led to their growth not 5 times, as planned, but 100 or more times. Most of the country's population fell below the poverty line. The issue of money, unsecured by the mass of commodities, not only did not stop, but was constantly growing. Overall for 1992 ᴦ. the issue of cash has increased compared to 1990 ᴦ. 54 times. Hopes for achieving market equilibrium and curbing inflation were dispelled. The government was forced to establish a high level of taxation, to minimize budget spending on social needs and the upkeep of the army, and to resort to other unpopular economic measures. As a result, social tension in society has increased. Opposition to the government's course has intensified. The mainstay was the Congress of People's Deputies and its Supreme Soviet. Disagreements arose within the Russian leadership itself. A number of statesmen, in particular Vice-President A. V. Rutskoi, criticized the reform policy pursued by the Gaidar government. Under pressure from the 7th Congress of People's Deputies, Yeltsin agreed to the resignation of Gaidar, who at that time (December 1992) was acting prime minister. V.S.Chernomyrdin became the new prime minister.

The collapse of the USSR and the collapse of perestroika brought an end to the attempts at socialist reform. The crisis in all spheres of society that accompanied the rise of sovereign states on the rubble Soviet Union, was extremely difficult.

In Russia, by autumn 1991 ᴦ. the situation in the economic sphere has become disastrous, especially in the field of food supply for the country. Coupons were introduced in all cities. Often there was simply nothing to buy these coupons with. More than 60 of the 89 Russian regions had no food grain reserves at all, and flour was produced due to the immediate (from the wheels) processing of the imported grain.

Foreign exchange reserves were almost completely depleted, and the gold reserve for the first time in the entire existence of the state was less than 300 tons on January 1, 1992 ᴦ. The ruble as a monetary unit was on the verge of destruction. This meant that there was no point in engaging in production activities, because it was impossible to buy anything with the rubles earned from the sale. The country fell into collapse, the threat of hunger and cold became real. What to do in this situation? Theoretically, there were two ways:

The first is to introduce emergency measures and supply the cities with food by force, but this way in the XX century. the country has already passed several times;

The second is to liberalize the economy through radical reforms.

In the last months of 1991 ᴦ. President of Russia B.N. Yeltsin formed a government consisting of young reformers, in which the leading role was played by the economist E.T. Gaidar.
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He was a supporter of liberal market reforms and took responsibility for the difficult and painful decisions to implement the reform.

The reforms proposed by E.T. Gaidar, exacerbated most of the social problems:

Chronic delays in the payment of wages began;

Unemployment appeared, the growth of which was constantly increasing;

The crime situation in society has worsened;

The living standards of a significant part of the population began to fall;

Property stratification unprecedented in recent years has become a reality;

The demographic situation has worsened (a drop in the birth rate, an increase in mortality); the “brain drain” abroad has become widespread, where decent conditions for work and life are created for them.

The transformation of the socio-economic system was very difficult and had negative dynamics in terms of the growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) until 1996 ᴦ. The first signs of economic growth appeared in 1997 when the volume of industrial production increased in comparison with the previous year.

Financial crisis August 17, 1998, for all its severity and tragedy for a part of the country's population, turned out to be a positive fact for the domestic industry. The financial pyramids, which were withdrawing funds from the real sector of the economy, collapsed, and excess imports decreased. Manufacturing (including the military-industrial complex) began to revive. Favorable for Russia in 1999-2007. the conjuncture for oil in the world markets turned out to be, which made it possible to significantly increase state revenues. From 2000 ᴦ. GDP has a steady, on average 6%, annual growth. During this period, Russia managed to pay off its foreign debts. That said, there is still a lot to be done before the Russian economy becomes strong, competitive and prosperous.

Socio-economic situation in the Russian Federation at the present stage. - concept and types. Classification and features of the category "Socio-economic situation in the Russian Federation at the present stage." 2017, 2018.