Throughout its history, people solved their problems only from the position of power. Any war was a means of suppressing the enemy, solving controversial issues. However, no particular damage to the population or the world could not apply such clashes. And only with the appearance of people began to think that the wins in it could not, the whole planet would die.

However, some of the heads of state still do not understand the danger and injected the tension in the world. Therefore, it can break over the slightest occasion.

Today, on the world arena, there are three main players who are able to give the beginning: Russia, China and the United States. Nowadays, local non-nuclear wars are not at all for the territory and / or human potential, they are underway for resources. And if in Russia such resources with excess, it even sells a significant amount of them, then in other countries, particular, the United States, the situation is somewhat different. They under the guise of fighters for democracy are trying to establish their own regime for smooth mining. Russia is trying to prevent this by all means, therefore, according to many analysts, the Third World War will begin in the coming years. The reason for this will be the collision of the interests of the planet in the rich resources.

Thus, one of their such regions are the countries of the East, which are not particularly developed in and war, but they have huge reserves of oil. Therefore, the United States actively conducts its policies in the region, trying to establish its control over her. What is the invasion of Iraq in 2003, under the reason for the presence of a chemical weapon from Saddam, who did not find it, in Libya in 2011, under the guise of the struggle for democracy, support for radical coups in Iran and Syria. All this could provoke the beginning of the Third World War.

Yes, and in Europe, the situation is no better. America constantly destabilizes the situation in separate regions to increase its military presence, as is happening in Ukraine. Therefore, the beginning of the Third World War may come at any time.

It is also worth saying about China, as a superpower. Bringing out the first positions in the global economy in the past few decades, he already declares his claims to world domination and can be the initiator of the 3 World War. The presence of the country of nuclear weapons, means of delivery, significant economic and military potential forces the most Asian countries with their position, affects the policies of Russia and the United States. While Russia is in neutral alliance with China, which slightly outweighs the scales against the US and allows you to slightly restrain their aggressive policies.

The confrontation between the two opposing camps is constantly, it just has not yet entered its hot phase. After all, Russia and the United States are located on various continents and to achieve the final victory it is necessary to overcome the powerful coastal defense system throughout. Therefore, if the third world war begins without the use of nuclear weapons, then over time it will surely shoot to finishing the loser enemy, or as a gesture of despair defeated.

Oddly enough, the beginning of the Third World War is beneficial to China, which has all the necessary means to reflect the impact of a few group aimed at its territory of American missiles with nuclear weapons. After its completion, he will be able to dictate to all countries their conditions in the post-person world, because both superpowers - Russia and the United States will be if not destroyed, then seriously weakened.

On the other hand, if the third world war begins in the allied of Russia and China, it will mean the complete destruction of the overseas enemy at relatively small losses, so, by combining the pro, we will be able to bring down most of the warheads flying in our side. And then our main enemy will have a nuclear winter and radioactive infection. The chances of civilization in this case are estimated as maximum. Therefore, the friendship of Russia with China is a certain guarantor of military equilibrium on the planet.

It is not worth discounting and other states with nuclear potential, which are quite capable of putting the beginning of the Third World War. The takeoffs of several rockets can be estimated by an automatic system as an attack and adequate countermeasures.

When the third world war begins - no one knows, but its beginning will mean the end of civilization, because it is not enough to repeat and jerk to the stars of resources of the planet.

In China, the "White Book" was published for the first time - a new interpretation of the military doctrine. There is an affordable language in it, as the PRC looks at the world and how its army intends to act in new conditions. One principle remains unchanged since Mao: the third world war will be, and Beijing is ready for her. But there are innovations, and, in addition to innovations, bad news for the Russian MIC.

The presentation of the "White Book" (and in such an unusual Chinese manner, as a press conference) - a demonstration calculated, first of all, on Europeans and Americans. At the same time, the Press Office of the State Council tried everything to arrange everything so that the Chinese concept system was adapted to the European logic system and the ideas about geopolitics. In general, it seems that the "White Book" is not so much addition to the military doctrine, how long has the expected response from Beijing for changed circumstances, filed in such a form so that everyone understands that it is China wanted to say.

The former military doctrines of China, formed by Mao, could not be called such from a western point of view. These were more philosophical and geostrategic reflections on the thousand-year history, rather than those familiar to us clearly definitions of threats and answers to them with a large number of technical terms and transfer of the functions of the childbirth of the troops.

In China, everything is easier, and more difficult. In Beijing since 1946, they come from the fact that the Third World War is inevitable. At the same time, the Chinese themselves do not master themselves with stories that in ten years the PRC will disturb the whole world on GDP, "they have no need to let them in the eyes of the ideological dust, which they climbed the consciousness of analysts almost all of the world. The Chinese in their military doctrine honestly admit that in the Third World War (whenever it happened and who would not start it) they will fight against a technologically more equipped and advanced opponent. And to eliminate this technological lag during the entire XXI century they will not succeed, unless Europe, the United States and Russia are not falling in an anabiosis.

Until the very last time, the technological superiority of the enemy (no matter who he is, although there are vague suspicions) was supposed to oppose numerical superiority. Fall, overdue, throwing caps. Individual doctrines for the Navy and the Air Force were not assumed at all, due to the practical absence of these types of troops. Actually, the question of the interaction of labor of troops in the agenda was also not. But the urgent and fundamental re-equipment of the army, which was forced to begin ten years old for ten years ago, demanded and more modern (read - the Europeanized) view of military principles and military art far-ahead of the time since Lao Tzu. Meanwhile, the key position of the "White Book" remained unchanged - the Third World War will be. It is explained that three factors will cause it: hegemonism and the policy of the forces of one side, the strengthening of the gap between the poor and rich countries and the struggle for natural resources.

The doctrine of the "People's War" is now outdated. She was replaced by the doctrine of "active defense". Roughly speaking, China reserves the right to apply preventive local shocks if his defense or turns will threaten danger. Of course, with reservations. They say, it is first assumed to use the entire arsenal of diplomatic, legal, information and other "civilian" measures. The unresolved situation on the Korean Peninsula, Taiwanese problem and belonging to Spratley is also traditionally considered to be dangerous. An additional threat to Beijing remains the situation in Sinjiang, as well as the piracy of the Southern Seas, for which China receives 80% of all oil. Tibetan separatists are also dangerous, but not to such an extent as the Uigurs. Still, Buddhists and Lamaists are historically less noticed in terrorism than Muslims. However, everything changes, the Sansary wheel can be equipped with a plastic.

The most significant change in the military doctrine will affect (and already affected) on the navy. Beijing has already moved from the strategy of "coastal defense" to the strategy of "Defense in coastal waters". In our understanding, it is only more than one hieroglyph, and in practice, the output of the Chinese fleet on a different level of high-quality level, allowing him to attend a permanent basis in the depths of not the World Ocean, but in the yellow, East Chinese and South Chinese seas. This is the result of technical and technological progress - until the second half of the 80s, China simply did not make the marine zone ships. By the way, the only source of progress for China was at the same time, which regularly built modern ships for the Navy. Moreover, the doctrine of re-equipment of the fleet in China is evolutionary and consistent: at this stage they build the fleet of the marine zone, relying on Russian etches of the "modern" type and diesel submarines. At the same time, a significant number of ships, the Chinese are built on their own projects, and in general their shipbuilding program is almost the most large-scale in the world.

Only after the formation of three squadors of the marine zone (traditionally all China's military systems are divided into three geographical zones - the North. Central and South, in which there is no Confucian revelation) Beijing will start forming the ocean fleet, which will also consist of three squadr Must be by aircraft carrier. Without the ocean fleet, it is impossible to solve the problem of Taiwan, nor spit, nor a transcacker. But at the moment the Chinese fleet is greater than Simulacro than the real combat force. In addition to the ships of the Russian building, much of the rest, which floats, is equipped with obsolete weapons and, which is especially important, practically does not have modern air defense and anti-parental defense. Therefore, artificial airfields on the islands of Sprati are needed, without them Chinese squadrons are a light target for aviation and submarines of potential opponents.

In a nuclear issue, China also recognizes its technological lag and is not officially going to strive for parity with world leaders. However, the strategic nuclear power attaches great importance. Here in the Chinese concept has not changed from the 70s: strategic nuclear forces must cause the enemy unacceptable damage to him and therefore will be maintained on sufficient quantitative and technical level. By the very nature of the Chinese nuclear forces - weapons offensive, but international obligations and the strategy of "tactical defense" do not provide for the use of them first.

Modern Air Force for China - so far only a goal. Accelerated re-equipment involves the formation of new Air Force and air defense, more flexible and modern, having a large radius of action. Currently, modern aircraft constitute no more than 15% of the airfield of the Air Force of the PRC, about this and the proportion of modern air defense facilities in the general arsenal. Most of them are either Russian aircraft, or their Chinese counterparts, which are mostly worse than the original due to - again - the technological lag. In the current form, the Chinese Air Force is aimed at performing a very limited circle of tasks, mainly on the protection of borders and support for the ground forces. Far detection tools are only now starting to enter the army, which will increase the radius of the actions of Chinese aviation.

The most important challenge, which is now thrown by the Chinese Army (and is particularly described in the "white book"), is a quick transition to modern types of management and methods of a hybrid war, bypassing the entire second half of the twentieth century with its almost meaningless experience of martial art experience. In a word, the Chinese army should from the state of the 60s, at best - the 70s immediately get out in the twentieth century.

In order. It is necessary to fully computerize the entire management system, including strategic nuclear forces. This may seem unexpected, but the "country of hackers" still has not yet established its own modern systems of interaction between the birth of troops and does not have the ability to use high-precision weapons to properly. The White Book indicates the fact that the experience of recent decades has shown the importance of using high-precision coordination of various types of troops (this is another discovery for Beijing since the times of Lao Zi - it is necessary to coordinate not only Feng Shui, but also the kind of troops). The future war will be conducted in the "three-dimensional space", which will require the coordination of the cosmic forces, exploration and operations management systems. The boundaries between the front and the rear in such conditions are erased, even the boundaries of reality are erased, so special attention in the new doctrine will be given to the Internet and the war in it. Especially emphasized the need to conduct "information wars", it is also intended to create a separate genus of troops, which will be fully focused on keeping propaganda.

Informatization and computerization of the 2.5 million army (there are another 800 thousand strategic reserves and 1.5 million police formations) as a whole should be achieved by 2020. By the same year, there should be "common progress in the main directions of modernization". But the main task is to "achieve basically the strategic goal of creating informatized armed forces" - must be implemented by 2050. The Chinese are not that again brings the notorious strategic thinking "for the Millennium ahead," they will not really be able to modernize a catastrophically outdated army in a more compressed time frame.

True, even the general characteristics of reforming actually land forces, all this tremendous mass of infantrymen are not given in the "White Book". There is a fear that, since the main position of the strategy is the continental defense against a technologically more advanced enemy - there has not changed on the macro level, the modernization of the land forces will also follow the residual principle. This is bad news for the Russian military-industrial complex, which will be used to sell not only airplanes and air defense systems, but also "Armatians". And China seems to be not ready to go on a total re-equipment of land forces, even though their weapons are also behind the world analogues. Attempts by the PRC to produce independently "borrowed" foreign samples Even in the case of small arms, once again failed, - then the brand was not the same (and it is always not that), then the cartridges are curves.

The only one of its kind exception is the rapid response force that Beijing creates. It is about 300 thousand people who must within 10 hours after receiving the order to be at any point of China. This is placed in the continental defense constant strategy, since one airborne building, six infantry divisions and the marine infantry brigade do not have delivery to more significant distances, and even more so - the aircraft of the cover or modern landing ships. If they can still be enough for Sprati Islands, then in the case of Taiwan and Japanese forces on Islands, they are no longer competitors. Moreover, the battalions of special forces, formally included in these forces of rapid response, in fact are attached to territorial districts, and there are big doubts that they will be able to collect in one place for the required 10 hours.

Military spending of large countries, primarily the United States, China and Russia, continue to grow. A lot of budget funds enters the development of the latest types of weapons. Recently, the United States in open declared that we consider space as a space for warfare. States are invested in drones and hypersonic technologies. It is such a weapon that can be the main thing in the Third World War, if it still begins. Talks about the weapons of the future.

On earth and in space

The placement of weapons in space provides almost limitless opportunities for the destruction of the enemy. Although the construction of missile databases on the moon or delivery of an asteroid to an near-earth orbit and reset it to the goal today looks like fantasy, there are already technologies that allow you to use space for warfare.

Extremely promising is the conclusion to the near-earth orbit of the ship with electromagnetic weapons (AM). The electromagnetic impulse is able to paralyze electrical networks and control systems, control, communication, collection and computer processing, C4ISR observation and exploration (Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance) enemy.

Rocket with AM, neglected with an near-earth orbit, intercept much more difficult. To withdraw such a weapon into space today is capable of US, China, Russia, India, Japan and countries. Especially effective Amy can be when applied against "Rogue Countries" (Iran and the DPRK), which actually nothing to answer.

No less promising placement of the weapon of directional energy (laser weapons) on satellites to intercept ballistic missiles almost immediately after the start. At present, the maneuvering devices that are experiencing the United States, China and Russia, as well as numerous observational satellites can be considered actually the only space weapon.

Hypersonic winged rockets

The feature of the winged missiles is the ability to maneuvering. This allows you to shy away from the opponent's anti-missile pages and extremely accurately hit the target. The main advantage of hypersonic missiles is a speed-developing speed, exceeding five Mach numbers (more than six thousand kilometers per hour). To intercept such missiles are extremely difficult. Hypersonic winged rockets open huge opportunities for the military. Such a rocket is capable of less than an hour to hit any purpose on the planet.

This served as the basis for the American concept of the Instant Global PGS (Prompt Global Strike), developed since 2001. The military focused on the X-51A Waverider product, developing a speed of seven or eight Maha, with a range of about two thousand kilometers and up to thirty kilometers high. Rockets are planned with strategic aircraft, demonstration arms samples must be manufactured in 2020.

Russia also work on a hypersonic winged rocket. The first tests of "Zirkonov" reported on March 17, 2016. In addition, projects in this area are implemented in China and India.

Image: Lockheed Martin

Smart drone

The most important event in the defense industry over the past decade is the appearance of UAV (unmanned aerial vehicles). With the improvement of drone technologies, more and more functions take on. It is possible that drones will completely outpace manned aircraft in most combat missions.

While the overwhelming majority of UAVs need a person - it is primarily about remote management and control over the device. Moreover, key decisions relating to the elimination of the goal are currently not accepted without human participation.

For example, searching for the purpose and launch of the American laser-earth laser rocket with laser or radar guidance AGM-114 HellFire, installed since 2007 on the MQ-1 Predator drone, requires human participation. However, the UAV will soon become completely autonomous.

This is due to progress in the development of artificial intelligence (AI). Such systems will be able to independently make decisions regarding their life and death. This is exactly what a scientist and businessman mean regularly reminiscent of the dangers of uncontrolled development AI.

Autonomous UAVs endowed with the most perfect AI will be able to work for a long time, and if necessary, instantly make a decision. The side of the conflict with such a weapon will receive a key advantage over the other participants in hostilities. This is well understood in the USA, China, EU and Russia countries.

"Artificial intelligence is the future not only Russia, this is the future of all mankind. Here are the tremens and difficult threats today, "said the President of the Russian Federation on September 1, 2017 on the project" Projectory ". In his opinion, "the one who becomes the leader in this area will be the Lord of the world."

Recent Arguments

The promising types of new weapons can also include invisible aircraft using stealth technology, rails that dispel the electromagnetic field, and the kinetic weapon operating from the space. Nuclear weapons will also not lose the relevance, remaining the last argument in the future war, but large and expensive military submarines are likely to lose much importance. They are easier to detect them with the help of groups of small and inexpensive drones ..

The academician voiced the long-known truth for a long time: without supporting the fundamental science, the potential of applied research is limited in time and ultimately is exhausted, as a result of which the country falls into technological dependence on other states. "If we do not have the results of fundamental science, then our production and applied science will have to prose the results of fundamental research abroad. And there, sorry, not to be sold at all. Modern needed. Sales what came out of need, "Sergeyev believes.

In China, the "White Book" was published for the first time - a new interpretation of the military doctrine. There is an affordable language in it, as the PRC looks at the world and how its army intends to act in new conditions. One principle remains unchanged since Mao: the third world war will be, and Beijing is ready for her. But there are innovations, and in addition to innovations - bad news for the Russian MIC.

The presentation of the "White Book" (and in such an unusual Chinese manner, as a press conference) - a demonstration calculated primarily on Europeans and Americans. At the same time, the Press Office of the State Council tried everything to arrange everything so that the Chinese concept system was adapted to the European logic system and the ideas about geopolitics. In general, it seems that the "white book" is not so much addition to the military doctrine, how many long-staying response from Beijing to changed circumstances filed in such a form so that everyone understands that it is China that wanted to say.

"War will cause three factors: hegemonicism and policy of one party, strengthening the gap between the poor and rich countries and the struggle for natural resources"

The former military doctrines of China, formed by Mao, could not be called such from a western point of view. These were mostly philosophical and geostrategic reflections on the thousand-year history, rather than clear definitions of threats and answers to them with a large number of technical terms and transfer of the functions of childbirth forces.

In China, everything is easier, and more difficult. In Beijing since 1946, they come from the fact that the Third World War is inevitable. At the same time, the Chinese themselves do not master themselves with the stories that in ten years the PRC will distort the whole world on GDP - they have no need to let them in the eyes of the ideological dust, which they closed the consciousness of analysts almost all of the world. The Chinese in their military doctrine honestly admit that in the Third World War (whenever it happened and whoever began it) they will fight against and an advanced opponent. And it will not be possible to eliminate this technological lag during the entire XXI century, unless Europe, the United States and Russia are not falling into anabyosis.

Until the very last time, the technological superiority of the enemy (no matter who he is, although there are vague suspicions) was supposed to oppose numerical superiority. Fall, overdue, throwing caps. Individual doctrines for the NMS and Air Force were not intended at all - due to the practical absence of these generics of troops. Actually, the question of the interaction of labor of troops in the agenda was also not. But urgent and fundamental re-equipment of the army, which internally began China for ten years ago, demanded and more modern (read - the Europeanized) view of military principles and military art far-advanced from the times of Lao Tzu. Meanwhile, the key position of the "White Book" remained unchanged - the Third World War will be. It is explained that three factors will cause it: hegemonism and the policy of the forces of one side, the strengthening of the gap between the poor and rich countries and the struggle for natural resources.

The doctrine of the "People's War" is now outdated. She was replaced by the doctrine of "active defense". Roughly speaking, China reserves the right to apply preventive local strikes if his defense or turns will threaten danger. Of course, with reservations. They say, it is first assumed to use the entire arsenal of diplomatic, legal, information and other "civilian" measures. Dangers are traditionally considered a unresolved situation on the Korean Peninsula, Taiwanese problem and. An additional threat to Beijing remains, as well as the piracy of the Southern Seas, for which China receives 80% of all oil. Tibetan separatists are also dangerous, but not to such an extent as the Uigurs. Still, Buddhists and Lamaists are historically less noticed in terrorism than Muslims. However, everything changes, the wheel of Sansar can also be provided with a plastic.

The most significant change in the military doctrine will affect (and already affected) on the navy. Beijing has already moved from the strategy of "coastal defense" to the strategy of "Defense in coastal waters". In our understanding, it is only more than one hieroglyph, and in practice, the output of the Chinese fleet on a different level of high-quality level, allowing him to attend a permanent basis in the depths of not the World Ocean, but in the yellow, East Chinese and South Chinese seas. This is the result of technical and technological progress - until the second half of the 80s, China simply did not make the marine zone ships. By the way, the only source of progress for China was at one time Russia, which regularly built modern ships for the Navy. Moreover, the doctrine of the fleet rearmament in China is evolutionary and consistent: at this stage they build the fleet of the marine zone, based on Russian etches of the "modern" type and diesel submarines. At the same time, a significant number of ships, the Chinese are built on their own projects, and in general their shipbuilding program is almost the most large-scale in the world.

Only after the formation of the three squadors of the marine zone (traditionally, all China's military systems are divided into three geographical zones - the northern, central and southern, in which there is no Confucian revelation) Beijing will start forming the ocean fleet, which will also consist of three squaders, only in each must be. Without the ocean fleet, it is impossible to solve the problem of Taiwan, nor spit, nor. But at the moment the Chinese fleet is greater than Simulacro than the real combat force. In addition to the ships of the Russian building, much of the rest, which floats, is equipped with obsolete weapons and, which is especially important, practically does not have modern air defense and anti-parental defense. Therefore, artificial airfields on the islands of Sprati are needed, without them Chinese squadrons are a light target for aviation and submarines of potential opponents.

In a nuclear issue, China also recognizes its technological lag and is not officially going to strive for parity with world leaders. However, the strategic nuclear power attaches great importance. Here in the Chinese concept has not changed from the 70s: strategic nuclear forces must cause the enemy unacceptable damage to him and therefore will be maintained on sufficient quantitative and technical level. By the very nature of the Chinese nuclear forces - weapons offensive, but international obligations and the strategy of "tactical defense" do not provide for the use of them first.

Modern Air Force for China - so far only a goal. Accelerated re-equipment involves the formation of new Air Force and air defense, more flexible and modern, having a large radius of action. Currently, modern aircraft constitute no more than 15% of the airfield of the Air Force of the PRC, about this and the proportion of modern air defense facilities in the general arsenal. Most of them are either Russian aircraft, or their Chinese counterparts, which are mostly worse than the original due to - again - the technological lag. In the current form, the Chinese Air Force is aimed at performing a very limited circle of tasks, mainly on the protection of borders and support for the ground forces. Far discovery tools are only now starting to enter the army, which will increase the radius of Chinese aviation.

The most important challenge, which is now thrown by the Chinese Army (and is particularly described in the "white book"), is a quick transition to modern types of management and methods of a hybrid war, bypassing the entire second half of the twentieth century with its almost meaningless experience of martial art experience. In a word, the Chinese army should from the state of the 60s, at best - the 70s immediately get out in the twentieth century.

In order. It is necessary to fully computerize the entire management system, including strategic nuclear forces. This may seem unexpected, but the "country of hackers" still has not yet established its own modern systems of interaction between the birth of troops and does not have the ability to use high-precision weapons to properly. The White Book indicates the fact that the experience of recent decades has shown the importance of using high-precision coordination of various types of troops (this is another discovery for Beijing since the times of Lao Zi - it is necessary to coordinate not only Feng Shui, but also the kind of troops). The future war will be conducted in the "three-dimensional space", which will require the coordination of the cosmic forces, exploration and operations management systems. The boundaries between the front and the rear in such conditions are erased, even the boundaries of reality are erased, so special attention in the new doctrine will be given to the Internet and the war in it. Especially emphasized the need to conduct "information wars", it is also intended to create a separate genus of troops, which will be fully focused on keeping propaganda.

Informatization and computerization of the 2.5 millionth army (there are another 800 thousand strategic reserves and 1.5 million police formations) as a whole must be achieved by 2020. By the same year, there should be "common progress in the main directions of modernization". But the main task is to "achieve mainly the strategic goal of creating informatized armed forces" - must be performed by 2050. The Chinese are not that again brings the notorious strategic thinking "for the Millennium ahead," they will not really be able to modernize a catastrophically outdated army in a more compressed time frame.

True, in the "White Book" there are not even given the general characteristics of the reform of the actual land forces, all this colossal mass. There is a fear that, since the main position of the strategy is the continental defense against a technologically more advanced enemy - there has not changed on the macro level, the modernization of the land forces will also follow the residual principle. This is bad news for the Russian military-industrial complex, which will be used to sell not only aircraft and air defense systems, but also. And China seems to be ready to go on the total re-equipment of the land forces - even though their weapons are also behind the world analogues. Attempts by the PRC to produce independently "borrowed" even in the case of small arms, once at times failed - then the brand was not the same (and it is always not that), then the cartridges are curves.

The only one of its kind exception is the rapid response force that Beijing creates. It is about 300 thousand people who must within 10 hours after receiving the order to be at any point of China. This is placed in the continental defense constant strategy, since one airborne building, six infantry divisions and the marine infantry brigade do not have delivery to more significant distances, and even more so - the aircraft of the cover or modern landing ships. If they can still be enough for Sprati Islands, then in the case of Taiwan and Japanese forces on Islands, they are no longer competitors. Moreover, the special forces battalions formally included in these forces of rapid response, in fact, are attached to territorial districts, and there are big doubts that they will be able to collect in one place for the required 10 hours.

In the Third World War, Russia will not participate between China and the United States, but in Beijing will rely on military-technical support by Moscow. In the magazine The National Interest, Professor Robert Farley - a teacher of the University of Kentykki (USA), a specialist in the field of international relations and military history, considers the scenario of the possible third World War II and China.

The very fact of the appearance of such a text indicates that the preparation of two superpowers to the battle passed among themselves from the field of theory to the practice area. Farli meticates the capabilities and objectives of the Parties and comes to the disappointing conclusion that the United States will even lose more than China in case of victory. He considers the possibility of using nuclear weapons, but does not allow the process of sharing blows to the global nuclear war. According to the scientist, avoiding the third world war will not be easy, but for the United States, the most beneficial to maintaining the existing state of affairs.

How is it inconceivable? Century after the First World War, the question of unexpected wars looks more significant again. What chain of events can lead to war in East Asia and how could this war be developed?

The United States and China are firmly linked by the trade routes of the Asia-Pacific region. Some argue that this makes war impossible, but the same thing once said about the first world.

In this article, we will leave the operational and tactical details of the possible American-Chinese war behind the brackets and consider the strategic objectives of the parties before, during and after the conflict. The third world war between the United States and China will certainly turn out some aspects of East Asian geopolitics, but many key factors will remain unchanged. Unfortunately, the world, most likely, will remember this war just as the first of the American-Chinese series.

Fifteen years ago, realistic answers to this question implied either a conflict for Taiwan or for North Korea. The formal declaration of independence by Taiwan or the attack of North Korea to the South would cause PRC and the United States with great reluctance, but still to enter into a big war.

Since then, much has changed. The sphere of Chinese interests expanded, and China's capabilities increased, and now we can imagine several different scenarios of the beginning of the future military conflict between the PRC and the United States. Taiwanese and North Korean scenarios are still possible, but they added the struggle for the East-Chinese and South China seas, as well as a possible conflict with India on the Tibetan border.

There are several factors here - China is enhanced, China is dissatisfied with the current American regional security system, and, finally, the cause of the Third World War can be numerous allied US liabilities in the region. So far, these factors continue to act, the possibility of war will persist.

Whatever the starting point of the conflict facilitates, the war will not definitely definitely begin with a preventive strike of Americans on the Chinese fleet, aviation and ground complexes. Of course, the Americans would like to destroy the air defense of the PRC before the Chinese will be able to attack American aircraft, bases and ships, but it is hard to imagine the situation in which America would decide to pay the political price for the escalation of the conflict.

The United States will need to take the first blow. This, of course, does not mean that the fleet and the Air Force will be inactive under the hail of Chinese missiles, but America for joining the third world war is almost certainly the clear, open demonstration of Chinese intention to move to the conventional combat actions of high intensity.

If you judge the history of the First World War, the NAK army is unlikely to give America enough time to prepare for the first blow. At the same time, the punch of format & snow on the head "is unlikely. Rather, the crisis will develop gradually, in the form of a series of incidents, and sooner or later, America will have to take a number of steps that will give Beijing to understand that Washington is really ready for war. It will be the collection of aircraft carriers, the transfer of troops from Europe and the Middle East region to Asia, moving aviation to the Pacific TVD. At this point, the Chinese will need to finally choose between the development of the conflict and the refusal of it.

In the economy, Beijing and Washington will certainly apply sanctions (from the American side, most likely multilateral) and freeze the assets of each other and the allies of the enemy. For capital and consumers of the Asia-Pacific region and all over the world, it will be a serious problem. In addition, the threat of full-scale world war in the region destabilizes global transport routes and may seriously damage the world industrial production.

Will the US allies support conflict with China? This will depend on how the Third World War will begin. If the reason becomes the final collapse of the DPRK, the United States is likely to be able to count on Korea and Japan. If the war begins due to territorial disputes in the East-Chinese Sea, Japan will inevitably enter it. If the fight becomes rations in the South China Sea, America can expect the support of some states ASEAN and Japan. So, Australia will certainly come to the rescue of America in a variety of circumstances.

From the Chinese side, the situation with the allies is much easier. China can count on the friendly neutrality and supply of weapons from Russia, but no more. The main task of Chinese diplomats will ensure and maintain the neutrality of the possible allies of America. It will require extremely complex choreography, including assurances in the peaceful nature of the long-term goals of China and the demonstration of confidence in the victory of China (which will follow the inevitable punishment for those who supported America).

The DPRK is a much more complex problem. Any intervention from North Korea creates a risk of response from Japan and South Korea, and this alignment is absolutely not suitable. In order for the DPRK intervention to become profitable, in Beijing should be confident that Japan and South Korea are going to support the American side (unlikely, given their mutual hostility). Otherwise, the DPRK will have to restrain, and not pull into conflict.

The United States will chase the following goals:

In addition to cases where the Third World War begins on the Korean Peninsula, the first task implies either the destruction of the Chinese landing, or blocking the replenishment and supply until the landing is surrendered. The second task will require a wide range of attacks against Chinese aviation and fleet, including reserves. You can expect active blows on airbases, fleet bases and Chinese missile complexes. The third task depends on the success of the first two. The defeat of the Chinese Expeditionary Corps and the destruction of a significant part of NAK and the Chinese Air Force can lead to internal unrest in perspective on the medium to long-term. American strategists should focus on the first two tasks and hope that their success will entail political consequences. Build a campaign on a broader & strategic "threat to the political goals of the PDA would be unreasonable. This will lead to a senseless place of resources, will create a risk of further escalation and may have an unpredictable effect on the political system of China.

Noak will chase the following goals:

The first task will require a marine landing from NAO and, possibly, the aircraft to capture goals. The second will require the use of underwater fleet, aviation, winged and ballistic missiles against the infrastructure and the US Fleet and their allies in the region.

The third and fourth goals are entirely dependent on the success of the second. Noak will need to apply the loss to Americans are quite tangible to ensure that future US leaders do not dare to further apply force against the PRC. The preservation of the American Union system depends on the US ability to successfully reflect Chinese aggression; In case of failure, it can fall apart and collapse.

The United States did not have to lose the fighter in battle since the war in Kosovo in 1999, and a major warship - since the Second World War. The sweating of the warship is likely to become the largest simultaneous loss of live strength since the Vietnamese war. However, American and Chinese strategists can overestimate America's fear to the same degree before losing. The loss of a large ship with the crew can, on the contrary, to unwind the American society (at least in the short term).

Dangerous moments of military conflict between China and the USA

The most dangerous moment will come, if NAK decides to attack the American aircraft carrier. This will mean the most sharp escalation of the conflict, not counting, of course, a nuclear strike. If China tries to drown an American aircraft carrier, the Third World War will inevitably switch from the phase of demonstrative maneuvering to the phase of the full-scale confrontation of fleets and armies.

The method of attack itself is important. The attack of the ship or submarine allows the United States to open a loose hunt for Chinese vessels, but does not necessarily imply a retaliatory blow to airbases, missile complexes or even by marine bases.

In this case, in this case - a ballistic blow, and not only because ballistic rockets are difficult to intercept, - such missiles are capable of carrying nuclear charges. The situation in which one nuclear power applies ballistic missiles against another nuclear power, and with the most intended nuclear advantage, is extremely difficult.

The next similar moment will come in the first rocket strike of the United States for Chinese goals. Given the overwhelming nuclear advantage of America, the first wave of rocket strikes will be severe stress for civil and military leadership of the PRC. It will be especially important if the Chinese leadership considers that he wins the Convention War; In this case, the Chinese may decide that America is going to resort to nuclear weapons as the last medium.

It can be expected that the Chinese underwater fleet will unfold before the beginning of the Third World War. With the surface fleet, everything is somewhat more complicated. In any high-intensity conflict, the fleet and the US Air Force immediately attack any detected Chinese vessel; Probably the largest ships (aircraft carriers & Liaoning "and new large landing ships) do not dock even in ports.

The Chinese will remove the surface fleet in the sea only in two cases: first, if you feel that the fleet is covered enough to act in relative security. Secondly, if China's position becomes hopeless. In both situations, the most likely threat to the Chinese fleet will be American submarines.

In most of the scenarios under consideration, China is achieved by a certain strategic goal, and not direct destroying the forces of the United States or Japan. This means that the fleet will have to capture from the sea, and then supply and defend a certain geographical point, most likely - Taiwan or a bridgehead in the East Chinese or South China Sea. NAK will have to provide a fleet of support necessary to implement such an operation.

Estimate the likelihood of victory one of the parties is harder because such an assessment includes many unknown. We do not know how effective Chinese anti-develop ballistic missiles will be as far as successful America will apply RES funds against the PRC fleet, as far as the F-22 Raptor will exceed traditional Chinese fighters, how nicely the Chinese fleet will act in real battle. Finally, we cannot predict when the Third World War will begin; Both army will look at all in 2020 at all as in 2015.

One way or another, the outcome of the war will be solved in these areas:

How will the third world war run out between the United States and China?

The Third World War, unfortunately, will not end with the signing of the surrender on board the lincard. One of the parties will inevitably be broken and fierce, and will immediately begin to prepare for Revanshi.

The best option for America would be the collapse of the Chinese government, similar to the collapse of the German Empire at the end of the First World War, or the collapse of the Military Government Leopoldo Galtery after the Falkland conflict. The humiliating military defeat and the destruction of a significant part of NAK and the Navy in combination with economic problems could undermine the control of the PDAs over China. However, this is an unlikely scenario, and the United States should not count on a new revolution after the victory.

What if China win? China can win, forcing the United States to terms with his goals, or destroying the union system that motivates and legitimizes America's actions. The United States will not be able to continue the Third World War if South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines refuse it from her. Both options suggest serious damage caused by American troops and, potentially, the American economy.

The impact that defeat will have on American internal politics is hard to predict. US & lost "wars in the past, but these defeats ended simply by revising contracts in areas, peripherals for American national interests. It is not known how the American society will be defeated in 3 World War with an equal opponent, especially if this opponent continues to increase economic and military power. The rating of the President and Party, who began a war, will surely fall into the abyss, at least after the first shock of the defeat.

The most difficult diplomatic task for both countries will be the search for the method to surrender, while maintaining & honoring. " If the 3 World War will turn into a fight for the survival of modes or for the national prestige, no one will win.

The probability of the US-Chinese conflict in the Pacific and Asian region depends on how the balance of economic and military forces will change. Germany remained the most powerful and largest state of Central Europe, despite the first world war. A similar way war is unlikely to affect the long-term prospects and intentions of China.

The key to the world lies in the resumption of productive economic ties between China, the United States and other states of the Asia-Pacific region. Whatever the third world war was, it will certainly violate well-established trade and investment schemes around the world. If one of the parties begin to attack (or, most likely to interne), the company and countries are under the threat of ruin, are not interested in the end of the conflict. At the same time, the US Government and China will surely be under strong pressure from lobbyists who require the resumption of trade, at least consumer goods.

China will not work to fill the loss. Even if the United States will erase the Air Force and Navy of the PRC from the face of the Earth, Chinese shipbuilding and aircraft will be able to restore the destroyed over the decade, probably with the help of Russia. Moreover, China's serious losses can inhale a new life in the Russian industry. In addition, 3 World War inevitably modernizes the NAK and the Air Force of the PRC through the destruction of obsolete equipment. Outdated forces will replace new modern airplanes and ships.

The loss of prepared personnel will be tangible, but the experience of real war will help create a new, more efficient officer corps. The new generation of Chinese soldiers, sailors and pilots will learn from new, much more realistic programs. The victory will end conflict or defeat, the decade later, the Chinese army will be more dangerous than before it.

The United States will be much more difficult to compensate for damage, and not only because American ships and airplanes are more expensive than Chinese. Production F-15 and F-16 is almost completed, and F-22 America does not produce anymore. American shipbuilding in deep decline, the replenishment of significant losses will require a lot of time. This can lead to particularly serious problems if the Third World War detects the critical flaws of the F-35 JSF. Given the US intention to arm in the next ten years of the Air Force, the Navy and the CMP variants of the F-35, the proof of the uselessness of JSF will in the future violates all mobilization plans.

The main question facing the USA - & Is it worth it? " Both victory and defeat will apply a serious military and economic damage. Even if the United States will win, it will not solve the Chinese problem; Even if the PDA collapses, its heirs will still challenge the winners of China's coastal waters.

Theoretically, the victory could strengthen the American Union system and strongly reduce the cost of deterring China. If 3 World War starts with the hard stroke of the Chinese in the East or South China Sea, the United States can serve China as an aggressor and establish itself as the main source of equilibrium in the region. Chinese aggression could also encourage the United States regional allies (especially Japan) to an increase in defense costs.

The Third World War could breathe new life to the Government and Society of America through the long-term project of containing China. Americans could double efforts in an attempt to surpass the Chinese army (but there is a danger to provoke a new arms race, which may be destructive for both parties). However, China does not threaten the United States neither ideologically nor geographically, and the population is not easy to sell it as an enemy.

Finally, another US accessible effective answer is to eliminate the East Asian political scene, at least in a military sense. Of course, many in America will be hard to transfer it; Generations of American politicians cherished the dream of hegemony.

The window of opportunities for US-Chinese 3 world war will be open, in all likelihood, still for a long time. The prevention of this global war will require diplomats and politicians of large art and insight. At the same time, attempts to best prepare for it will be in the foreseeable future to spend significant diplomatic, military and technical resources. However, you should not forget that at the moment China and the United States constitute together the heart of one of the most productive economic regions in the history of this planet. It is worth fighting for it, it is worth building on this foundation.