Privolzhsky center of financial consulting and appraisal invites professional appraisers to take part in the 2nd stage of the project to form collective expert assessments of the parameters of the real estate market, necessary in the process of providing real estate appraisal services. Within the framework of this project, it is planned to collect opinions of appraisers regarding market parameters, analyze, process them in accordance with the rules and methods of expert assessment and form collective expert assessments on the parameters necessary for appraisers, reflecting the opinion of a large number of professional appraisers from various cities and regions. Russian Federation... In contrast to the 1st stage, in accordance with the comments and suggestions made by the evaluators in the process of the subsequent discussion of the results, at the 2nd stage the list of parameters is significantly expanded.

In this regard, I ask you to fill out the attached forms and send them in electronic form to the address: ***** @ *** ru with the topic "expert survey" until November 15.

We express our gratitude to you in advance.

All Appraisers who took part in the project and sent the requested data will be sent short Reports with the results of processing, which they can use in their assessment work.

Scientific supervisor of the project

[Download survey forms]

Information support of the project on the Internet:

[Library Labrate. Ru] [ESMI ". Appraiser's Bulletin "] [Appraiser Register] /

[Questions and discussion online]

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE SECOND STAGE OF THE PROJECT

Today, the Russian Appraiser is working in conditions of a lack of information, and he has to compensate for this shortcoming by including correction factors, forecast characteristics and other parameters of the real estate market that reflect his personal point of view in the calculations for the appraisal of real estate objects. An unjustifiably overestimated subjective component introduced by the Appraiser into the appraisal process casts doubt on the objectivity and reliability of the final appraisal declared by the Appraiser in the appraisal report. In order to to some extent overcome the difficulties arising due to the lack of information, reduce the influence of the subjective factor on the result and promote the unity and comparability of the assessment results, it is proposed to create a single set of such parameters reflecting collective opinion professional Appraisers working in various regions of the Russian Federation.

Objective of the project: Based on the individual expert opinions of individual Appraisers, rendering on the basis of professional knowledge, personal experience and intuition, personal judgments regarding correction factors, parameters of the real estate market at the current moment and in the foreseeable future, to form collective expert assessments of the parameters of the real estate market, which are often used by Appraisers in the process of their appraisal activities.

Content of the project... The basis of the work is the identification of opinions on the parameters of the market of actively working Appraisers who perform the functions of experts in this project. To implement this project, a standardized questionnaire with questions has been developed. Data processing includes checking the consistency of experts' judgments and forming a group opinion based on statistical processing of expert information. Materials are processed by a team of analysts.

Brief results of the first stage... This stage is a logical continuation of the work performed at the first stage, in which more than 100 experts - professional Appraisers from 30 constituent entities of the Russian Federation took part. Appraisers from Moscow, Novosibirsk, Tyumen took the most active part. General conclusions based on the results of the expert survey, tables with data, meaning and interpretation of the estimated parameters and brief recommendations for their use are given in electronic means and published in the journal "Appraiser's Register". In addition, the main results, presented in the form of tables, were sent to all evaluators who took part in the survey (albeit with a delay, for which we deeply apologize).

We do not have accurate data on how many Appraisers are on this moment use the results of this survey. However, based on requests to us and discussions in electronic means, it can be concluded that these materials have found wide application and turned out to be useful to many Appraisers. Some remarks were made, which mostly boiled down to a proposal to expand the list of estimated parameters. We carefully read the comments received and, if possible, took them into account.

The first refers to market characteristics that are difficult and sometimes impossible to determine by calculation based on market statistics. This primarily refers to the forecast parameters that the Appraiser includes in his calculations. At the same time, the project developers proceed from the fact that, of course, no one can know exactly how the market will actually develop in the future. But the market value of an object at the moment is determined by what the market “thinks” about it today. This means that for a correct assessment of the market value, the Appraiser needs to correctly “guess” the expectations of market participants regarding how rental rates will change and what the expected trajectory of real estate prices is in the foreseeable future. Therefore, the opinion of each Appraiser, who not only fixes the current state of prices in the market, but also influences them with his estimates, is extremely important for determining the general mood and expectations in the market. If there is a sufficient amount of information, it is possible to obtain correct estimates of the parameters reflecting the general ideas of market participants about its further development. Therefore, the table should include the personal expectations of the survey participant for the future development of the real estate market.

To the second group refers to the characteristics of the market, reflecting the current views of investors about the required profit, risks, etc. These characteristics are very important for determining the rate of diagnosis, capitalization ratio and profit of an entrepreneur. At the same time, for the regions for which there will be enough data (at least 8), such characteristics will be calculated separately.

Third group includes parameters that are used as corrections in the comparative approach. These parameters are usually calculated by each Valuer using the paired sales method. However, as a rule, the Valuer does not have a sufficient amount of data, and therefore the adjustments he uses may not always be considered sufficiently convincing. At the same time, since in many cases such adjustments are not specific to the region, there is a fundamental possibility of combining (generalizing) them and obtaining more accurate estimates of the correcting parameters that combine more complete information.

Expert survey data processing... The project assumes the use of special methods of data processing, including methods of interval mathematics, since expert data are presented in the form of intervals. Please note that survey participants must indicate the minimum and maximum values ​​for the parameters. Subsequent data processing presupposes precisely the presence of such information.

Project implementation results... Based on the collected data, it is planned to prepare a Report with detailed analysis all information. This Report will contain the results of data processing using modern methods mathematical statistics. The results of processing will be presented in the form of tables, graphs, histograms, convenient for use in the process of assessing and issuing Reports. Brief reports with the processing results will be sent to all Appraisers who took part in the project and sent the requested data. The results presented in this Report will be used by the Valuers in their work on valuation.

Further development of the project... It is planned to conduct a periodic survey with the publication of the Report with the processing results on a regular basis, with an interval of 6-12 months. In addition, if this project is supported by a sufficient number of Appraisers, at subsequent stages the list of parameters will be supplemented with multipliers and other characteristics used in business appraisal.

Features of the second stage of the project:

· Taking into account the comments and suggestions of the Appraisers using the values ​​of the parameters of the real estate market, published on the basis of the results of the first stage, the list of parameters to be surveyed has been expanded.

· Subject to an increase in the number of experts participating in the survey, it is planned to present collective expert assessments with differentiation by region.

· Along with the publication of tables with the values ​​of the parameters of the real estate market, recommendations will be developed on how to use these data in the process of assessing and preparing the report.

· Particular attention will be paid to the development of procedures to improve the accuracy of mass valuation based on the use of expert information.

Adopted in 2015 the legislative framework in the field of valuation conflicts with established practice and methodology of valuation activities

Irina Vishnevskaya,

ge Neral Director of Berkshire Advisory Group,

NS Expert of the Working Body for Methodological Support and Expertise
at the Council for Appraisal Activities of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation,

member of the Working Body for the Protection of the Rights and Legal Interests of Appraisers
and SROO of the Council for Appraisal Activities of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation,

certified forensic expert, member of NP "Chamber forensic experts", Member of the Forensic Scientific Society
Forensic Science Society (Great Britain), the only certified international forensic expert in the Russian Federation

The legal framework in the field of appraisal adopted in 2015 conflicts with the well-established practice and methodology of appraisal activity

The macroeconomic situation on the market, characterized for the second year by the instability of the Russian national currency, aggravating problems in the banking and financial sector, and in 2015, also by sharply falling oil prices, is making adjustments to all spheres of the economy, including valuation activities. ...

Some experts compare it with the situation of the 2008-2009 crisis, which, in my opinion, is not entirely correct, since what we observed in the economy of 2014-2015 was not entirely correct. - not a crisis, but a systemic restructuring, new rules of the game to which one needs to adapt and quickly rebuild. It is appropriate to quote the classics - "Differentiate or die!"

In any case, over the years following the crisis, the Russian real estate market has seriously changed, and this requires new approaches to valuation. This is recognized at the government level, and one of the results was the adoption this year of new Federal assessment standards, and based on their results, the Ministry of Economic Development decided to create working bodies to finalize them.

Under the auspices of the Ministry of Economic Relations, a working group on methodology and expertise began to develop guidelines for certain types of objects of assessment, however, this is not enough. Handbooks and methodologies for determining correction factors, which are accepted in the market for assessments, also need to be revised.

Buyer's market

One of the obvious consequences of changes in their macroeconomic realities was, as it seems to us, the impossibility of applying the "Real Estate Appraiser's Handbook" generally accepted today by the appraisal community, ed. Leifer L.A., at least - without making serious adjustments to it. There are serious questions to other commonly used reference books and the calculation coefficients proposed by their authors, since both the methods of their (coefficients) obtaining and the values ​​of the quantities themselves are not even yesterday, but the day before yesterday.

Moreover, the incorrectness of the values ​​of the reference books used by the appraisers - we are talking about the "Real Estate Appraiser's Handbook" ed. Leifer L.A. and SRD, ed. Yaskevich E.E., lead in fact to the deceleration of the market for transactions with assets.

For example, in the second half of 2015, we saw that the number of properties on offer is huge, and there are very few investors able to buy. A “buyer's market” has formed, which dictates specific rules of the game and forms the real market prices of objects. The discounts are quite large: an asset that was worth $ 30 million in a growing market, with an understandable cash - flow revenues, forecasted or managed by expenses, in the second half of 2015 were sold for $ 10-12 million.

Appraisers, on the other hand, did not rebuild themselves when determining the cost and continue to make forecasts of a steadily growing "seller's market", using their usual coefficients, while discounts for bargaining today can reach 65%, and in some cases even more.

Outdated approaches often harm the situation on the market: they slow down transactions and, worse, do not allow the court to establish the true value of real estate at the current moment.

Let me give you an example.

The joint-stock company plans to sell a complex of property - a fruit and vegetable base in Moscow. The base management held negotiations with a number of potential buyers (including large tenants of this base, who are also interested in its purchase).

To organize the bidding, an independent appraisal company was involved, which carried out an appraisal of the property complex, using all approaches to appraisal available to the appraiser, using appraisers' guides to introduce adjustments. Based on them, a report was prepared. It should be noted that the results of the assessment by the three approaches turned out to be close. However, both the buyers and the management of the selling company themselves stated that the valuation results were greatly overestimated and if in 2012-2013 the base could be sold for the indicated amount, today this price is twice overstated!

The appraiser applied the discounts available to him, but the result of the appraisal did not change significantly ... The seller put the object up for auction - the auction did not take place, since none of the potential buyers expressed a desire to acquire the asset at such an inflated cost by today's standards. A year has passed and, as far as I know, taking into account the bidding procedures, the base has not been sold.

This article is devoted to explaining why these techniques do not work quite correctly now. The purpose of this publication is not to criticize the approaches or individual authors who have made significant efforts to develop them, but to start a discussion about the formation of new approaches to methodology that would be relevant and, if possible, universal for the entire territory of the Russian Federation in the current situation. ...

The need for new approaches is dictated, among other things, by the more frequent attempts by clients to recover, in their opinion, lost income from appraisers, as well as by the practice of the Central Bank, bombarding appraisal SROs with complaints about the reports of independent appraisal companies, which were carried out to assess pledges, and today are checked by the Central Bank when checking commercial banks. So, this work- in the interests of the entire appraisal community and requires the consolidation of the efforts of market professionals.

Discounts for bargaining, practice 2014-2015

During 2015, the partners and experts of Berkshire Advisor Group LLC initiated and conducted a number of studies on how the discounts for trading in 2014-2015 were formed. For this purpose, we conducted a study of the available appraisers guidelines and the collections they use to justify and calculate bargaining discounts in determining the market value of real estate and business from two points of view.

First, we were interested in the validity of these coefficients. Secondly, the practice of using these reference books during the 2014-2015 crisis. The third follow-up question is: How viable will the proposed rate adjustments for 2016 be?

Let us consider in more detail each of the Reference books and the nature of the occurrence of reference data included in them.

Real Estate Appraiser Handbook. Volume 1. Corrective factors for the comparative approach. Leifer L.A., Sterlin A.M. and etc.

The data of the reference book, and we are talking specifically about the coefficients used by appraisers in determining the value of objects - in particular, the indicator "adjustment for bargaining", are determined on the basis of the method of collective expert assessments (by 200 parameters).

This method was implemented by analyzing expert assessments of appraisers who filled out the questionnaires based on their knowledge, personal experience and intuition. All this made it possible to form collective expert assessments using the methods of mathematical statistics.

The handbook has been published since 2011. In the preface to I the 2011 edition indicated that appraisers from 50 cities of Russia took part in the survey, taking into account 65 parameters / characteristics of the real estate market. In the preface to III the publication of the reference book for 2014 states that the information is based on the materials of a survey of 190 leading appraisers from 52 cities of Russia. For the latter, this amounts to 3.64 appraisers per city, i.e. 3-4 assessors (respondents) of the survey for each city.

Table 1

And who are the experts?

Here, it seems appropriate to us to discuss the respondents' relevance to the needs of the survey. In some cases, it raises reasonable doubts. Consider the statement on page 24 of the Handbook edited by L.A. Leifer, A.M. Sterlin. and etc.: "…the opinion of various market participants is represented by appraisers who, by virtue of their profession and simply experience, know this better than others ... ».

Market specialists will probably remember that on 04.08.2015 the Order of the Ministry of Labor of Russia No. 539n “On the approval of the professional standard“ Specialist in appraisal activity ”was issued (Registered with the Ministry of Justice of Russia on 27.08.2015 N38720).

Briefly paraphrasing the content of the professional standard, we can say thatthe competence of the evaluator is determined knowledge of methods and techniques of calculations (i.e. application of formulas) and the use of information sources to determine the value of the evaluated objects on the basis of his knowledge.

Criterion or surrogate ?!

There is also a clear understanding in the labor market: who can apply for the job of an appraiser. These are specialists with an appraisal diploma. The rest of the requirements mainly relate to work experience in the appraisal field.

Unfortunately, it cannot be ruled out that, as respondents-experts, the authors of the reference book, ed. Leifer L.A. conducted a survey of specialists who do not meet the criteria established by the government of the Russian Federation and the market, since they are neither carriers of knowledge about the real estate market, nor market participants accompanying transactions for the purchase and sale of real estate. In fact, they are only consumers of this information, which means that the "expert" information they give out is a surrogate for primary information that comes from real experts working directly with sellers and buyers of real estate. Moreover, this information passed through the prism of the knowledge and ideas of such an appraiser, and, probably, was distorted at the same time.

It is worth mentioning that the mentioned Handbook has its own "assumptions and limitations".

To quote some of the more controversial: “do not severely restrict the evaluator in his use of certain parameter values »; «… the appraiser answered the questions posed to him regarding the numerical values ​​of the most significant characteristics of the real estate market based on subjective opinion and practical experience in appraising real estate in his region ».

Taking into account the above, we are forced to say that currently the appraisers are offered as a basic "Directory of Real Estate Objects" containingdata that has nothing to do with transactions with real estate, built by appraisers on the basis of their subjective knowledge and opinions regarding calculation methods and applied formulas... It is on them that the community should base its assessments: what kind of discounts a buyer can give to a seller when selling real estate objects.

Alternative sources

Consider other examples of reference appraisal literature used to calculate the market value of real estate. Unfortunately, the principles laid down in them and the calculated values ​​proposed by the authors of the handbook in 2014-2015. also do not always correspond to reality.

So, "Handbook of Calculated Data for Valuation and Consulting (the ending financial crisis) "SRD No. 5-2010, ed. Yaskevich E.E. This handbook is a more fundamental and systematized publication, detailing information on the principle of "how exactly" it is necessary to calculate or take into account the variety of factors and issues that an appraiser faces in the course of calculations. But there are nuances in this technique, in particular, the relevance of the data sampling is not quite obvious. Consider the pledged toadjustment for the difference in the offer value and the deal price, which is stillcalled adjustment for bargaining or "bargaining". In most assessment reports, it is unreasonably accepted in the range of 5 ... 15%, while the current crisis has affected these indicators as well.

When analyzing the real estate market, the compilers of the directory are guided mainly by the offers of objects for sale, due to the fact that there is no data on the terms of transactions. It is the great influence of the coefficient of "bargaining" on the cost parameters of the objects of appraisal (0.85-0.95) that does not allow us to assert that there is an unconditional possibility of evaluating objects in developed markets (for example, apartments) only by the comparison method.

For example, in the collection of SRD No. 17-2015 on page 14, discounts are offered for bargaining in cities of Russia, including in large cities (Moscow, St. Petersburg, Krasnodar, Yekaterinburg, Rostov-on-Don), medium-sized cities (Vladivostok, Novosibirsk , Omsk, Stavropol, Tambov, Tver) and small towns and settlements Moscow region, as well as in Minsk.

Bargaining discounts are differentiated by type of real estate : residential, retail, office, industrial and warehouse and land plots, with different discounts offered for sale and for rent.

table 2

"Handbook of Real Estate Appraisers" edited by Leifer Lev Abramovich, third edition, updated and expanded, in 2 volumes, 2014

The information presented in the third edition of the handbook is based on the materials of a survey of about 200 leading appraisers from 52 cities of Russia. The reference book contains characteristics of the real estate market and correction factors used by appraisers in real estate appraisal.

The guide is intended for use in the real estate appraisal process. It can also be useful for market research professionals, economic students and professionals undergoing professional retraining in the field of property valuation.

SpoilerTarget "> Spoiler: The Real Estate Appraiser's Handbook includes the following sections:

· The problem of information support of works on real estate appraisal and ways of its solution.
· Collective expert assessments of the characteristics of the real estate market. Conceptual provisions.
· Project for the creation of collective expert assessments of the characteristics of the real estate market - 2013.
· Additional comments in relation to questions that were frequently asked by the authors of the project.
· Presentation of the results of statistical processing and their interpretation.
· Collective expert assessments of the characteristics of the real estate market. Discounts for bargaining.
· Collective expert assessments of corrective factors (adjustments). Short description.
· Low-class office and retail facilities.
· Low-grade production and storage facilities.
· Objects for agricultural purposes.
Business centers of class A, B.
· Apartments.
· Residential buildings and cottages.

Volume 1:"Corrective factors for the comparative approach".
Edition cost - 1600 rubles.

year 2014. Corrective factors for the comparative approach. Third edition (updated and expanded). 258s. ISBN 978-5-901956-79-3.

Volume 2:"Market characteristics and forecasts for the income approach".
Edition cost - 900 rubles.

The second volume of the Handbook contains updated information that can be used in the implementation of methods of the income approach in real estate appraisal, including: data on operating costs for various types of real estate, data on the degree of underutilization of real estate objects when they are leased, which can be useful in forecasting cash flows. Also given are data on the profitability of real estate, gross rental multipliers, on the expected profit of an entrepreneur, which are usually used to determine the discount rate in the framework of the income approach. In addition, the Handbook contains parameters characterizing the expectations of market participants regarding further price dynamics in various segments of the real estate market.

Basic concept On the possibility of using collective expert assessments in the process of real estate appraisal The market is not formed under the influence of fundamental laws of nature (for example, the law of universal gravitation or the so-called strong interaction of elementary particles). The market and its characteristics (first of all, prices) are formed as a result of the interaction of sellers, buyers and other market participants based on their motivations, preferences, financial capabilities, expectations and attitude to risks, as well as the information they possess. Therefore, a direct way to obtain information about the internal processes and mechanisms of the market is to interview direct market participants. If the subjective opinions of various participants are combined into one generalized opinion of hundreds of participants from dozens of different cities, then it can be considered as a reflection of the objective state of the market. As a kind of palliative (instead of surveying the main market participants), a survey of professional appraisers who are participants in market processes and are familiar with the behavior of other market participants can be used. In this survey, the opinions of various market participants are represented by appraisers who, by virtue of their profession and simply experience, know this better than others.

Purpose of the project Based on the individual expert assessments of the Appraisers, who, on the basis of professional knowledge, personal experience and intuition, make their own judgments regarding the parameters of the real estate market at the current moment and in the foreseeable future, form collective expert assessments on various characteristics of the real estate market.

Specifics of the second stage Expansion of the range of characteristics by which a collective expert opinion is formed Expansion of the geography of experts (55 cities) and the number of experts Expert opinions in the form of intervals Differentiation of market characteristics by types of real estate Binding of parameters of real estate markets by city (13 cities are selected for which a separate opinion is formed ) Operational data processing (first results within a month) Publication of a reference book with methods, recommendations and samples of Reports

Collective expert assessments of real estate characteristics Stage 2 of the project Stage 1 Stage 2 Number of appraisers participating in the project Number of cities represented in the project 3155 Number of real estate market parameters determined as a result of an expert survey 4565

Research characteristics of the market (three blocks of questions) General characteristics of the real estate market at the time of research. Forecast characteristics of the real estate market. Market participants' expectations for the next year and for the next 5 years. Correction factors used to bring data on objects - analogs to the object of assessment.

Real estate market parameters Bargaining discount% Entrepreneur's profit External wear due to the crisis Percentage of underutilization Discounts on prices for office and retail facilities Discounts on rental rates for office and retail facilities Discounts on prices for industrial and warehouse facilities Discounts on rental rates for industrial and warehouse facilities Discounts on prices for land plots for individual housing construction Discounts on prices for land plots for multi-storey housing construction Discounts on prices for land plots for commercial objects Discounts on prices for land plots for industrial and warehouse purposes Discounts on prices for agricultural land Discounts on prices for residential real estate

Forecast of price dynamics in the real estate market Expected average annual growth (+) or fall (-) in prices for office and retail real estate,% per year В next year(Q2 2010 - Q2 2011) In the next 5 years (Q2 2011 - Q2 2016) Expected average annual growth (+) or fall (-) in prices for industrial and warehouse real estate,% in year Next year (Q2 2010 - Q2 2011) In the next 5 years (Q2 2011 - Q2 2016) Expected average annual growth (+) or fall (-) in prices for residential real estate, % per year Next year (Q2 2010 - Q2 2011) In the next 5 years (Q2 2011 - Q2 2016) Expected current profitability of class "C" real estate and below for the next 5 years for office space for retail space for warehouse space for industrial space

Correction factors Correction per floor, in relative units Ratio of prices of office and retail space located in the basement to prices of similar objects on the 1st floor Ratio of rental rates of office and retail space located in the basement to rental rates of similar objects on the 1st floor floor Ratio of prices of office and retail space located in the basement to prices of similar objects on the 1st floor Ratio of rental rates of office and retail space located in the basement to rental rates of similar objects on the 1st floor Correction per floor, in relative units Ratio of prices of office and retail space located in the basement to prices of similar objects on the 1st floor Ratio of rental rates of office and retail space located in the basement to rental rates of similar objects on the 1st floor Ratio of prices of office and retail space located in the basement, to the prices of similar objects on the 1st floor The ratio of rental rates for office and retail space located in basement, to rental rates of similar objects on the 1st floor Ratio of rental rates of office and retail facilities located on the second and higher floors to rental rates of similar facilities on the 1st floor Ratio of prices of industrial and warehouse facilities located in the basement to prices similar facilities on the 1st floor Ratio of rental rates of industrial and warehouse facilities located in the basement to rental rates of similar facilities on the 1st floor Ratio of prices of industrial and warehouse facilities located in the basement to prices of similar facilities on the 1st floor Ratio rental rates of industrial and warehouse facilities located in the basement to rental rates of similar facilities on the 1st floor

Completion of the second stage of the project Sending out to the participants (experts) short Reports with the processing results Development of recommendations on the use of collective expert assessments of market parameters in the process of real estate appraisal Development of a fragment of the Assessment Report illustrating the possibilities of using expert assessments in the Report Edition of the Handbook with all materials - February 2011

What does the implementation of the project give? Information about the processes on the market, peculiarities in the regions, trends, what the market thinks about all this. Allows evaluators to draw on the general opinion of the evaluating community. This helps and protects the evaluator. Limits unscrupulous appraisers in the possibilities of manipulating the parameters used in the appraisal (according to the appraiser's expert opinion ...).

“Information support of works on real estate appraisal. Collective expert assessments of the characteristics of the real estate market "

Whatever approaches and methods are used in property appraisal, the required reliability and reliability of the resulting appraisal cannot be provided without adequate market information. This indisputable fact has been repeatedly noted in the evaluation literature and in international standards. Unlike a Western appraiser, which has many information and analytical services that supply him with the required information, the Russian appraiser is not provided with information in the required volume. If primary information can still be obtained from periodicals and Internet resources, then with integrated characteristics (generalized characteristics of the market, correction factors, etc.), which are the result of the analysis and processing of primary information, and which are necessary in the process of assessment procedures, the situation is significant. worse. The lack of the necessary standardized information, on the one hand, creates the basis for an unscrupulous appraiser to obtain any value of the market value. On the other hand, the lack of adequate information makes it impossible for a bona fide evaluator to present objective and undeniable evidence of his evaluations, which would be convincing for an opponent. At least a competent opponent in most reports, including those carried out by a bona fide and qualified appraiser, will find provisions that, given a lack of information, cannot be rigorously substantiated. Therefore, the situation today in the Russian assessment is close to a dead end, and if no real measures are taken to create an information support system, then the assessors will face difficult times.

^ The structure of the information used by the evaluator

All information that is used in the assessment process can be divided into two groups:

Inside information, related to the subject matter... If real estate is assessed, then this group includes data on its technical characteristics, about the condition, the need for repairs, etc. For business, this is data on the financial activities of the company being assessed, on the condition of assets, etc. The main problems in using this information lie in the area of accounting, which does not reflect, most often, the real state of affairs at the enterprise. These and other issues related to the quality of internal information will be addressed as we move towards greater transparency of companies, the introduction of management accounting budgeting, and the transition to more progressive forms. accounting statements and, above all, on IFRS.

^ External information. As noted in international standards, all approaches lead to market value if they are based on market data. Therefore, without information reflecting the situation on the market for such objects, the assessment of the market value cannot be objective. In accordance with generally accepted methodologies, the evaluator works with both primary data, for example, with the transaction prices of comparable objects, and with integrated market characteristics, for example, correction factors that ensure "bringing" comparable objects to the estimated one.

^ Primary information ( sales prices of comparable properties, rental rates, financial characteristics of specific companies, etc.) is the most important factor in the reliability and accuracy of the estimate. The problems with the use of such information are well known. Not only on transactions with real estate, but even on transactions with large companies, data are not published. Instead of information on the prices of completed transactions, the appraiser has at his disposal many sources, including the Internet resources, where the prices of offers are published. Of course, such information does not give a complete picture of market prices... Recently, however, individual appraisers have taken steps towards creating a database of prices for real transactions. In particular, work has begun in Nizhny Novgorod to monitor real transactions. And, although this database still does not fully meet the needs of real estate appraisers, we can assume that a start has been made, and soon the appraiser will be provided with good-quality initial information.

^ Integrated information based on the results of processing primary information. It includes correction factors for “matching” data for comparable real estate objects - adjustments for location, presence / absence of repairs, scale factor, adjustments for a limited market or low liquidity, the share of land in the value of a single property, etc.

For a business, integrated information can include various multiples, average equity / debt ratios, industry-specific profit margins, etc.

Unfortunately, the insufficient experience of the Russian appraisal and, to an even greater extent, insufficient attention to this problem led to the fact that the Russian Appraiser does not have all the necessary integrated information. In these conditions, he is forced to solve the problem of lack of necessary information in their own ways, which, most often, when seriously considered, do not stand up to scrutiny.

Let us consider what options for solving assessment issues in the absence of the necessary information gives assessment practice.

"Simple" options for solving the problem of data scarcity

The lack of necessary data, which the Russian appraiser constantly encounters, he often tries to compensate for with “simple” solutions to the problem. Below are considered the most common options, which, despite their obvious inconsistency, have become widespread in appraisal practice.

Assertions Based on the Subjective Reasoning of the Appraiser.

An example of this type of “simple solution” is the calculation of the discount rate based on the cumulative approach. As you know, the discount rate with this approach is calculated as the sum of the risk-free return and the amount of premiums associated with risks. In this case, all components of premiums are usually taken on the basis of general reasoning, on the basis of which the numerical values ​​of the premium for various risks are "derived". Obviously, with the help of the appropriate "justification" you can easily get any value of the discount rate and, accordingly, the value of the market value. Note that the application of this approach by Western appraisers is based on numerous studies of the factors affecting the numerical value of premiums. The results of such studies are widely reported in the open press and on the Internet. These publications make it possible to some extent (although not completely) to overcome the unreliability of the assessment due to the significant contribution of the subjective component to such a method. It is pertinent to note here that the subjective component is to some extent inevitably present in the assessment process. However, if it is decisive for the numerical value of the assessment, then there is no need to talk about the objectivity of such an assessment. Obviously, an assessment based on the initial data obtained in this way provides ample opportunities for manipulating the result.

Even less convincing in the Appraisal Report look statements such as: "In the opinion of the appraiser, a correction factor should be introduced ... (numerical value is given)", "based on the research carried out by the appraiser, we will accept an amendment equal to ...". Even if such statements are preceded by qualitative reasoning about risk factors, such an assessment most often has nothing to do with objective state, but reflects the desire of the evaluator to reach a specific result. However, in fairness, we note that such assessments, most often, are not accepted by regulatory bodies and expert councils.

A reference to oral information received from specialists looks more convincing for regulatory authorities and expert councils. For example, when calculating adjustments in real estate appraisal within the framework of the comparative approach, a reference to a real estate company is often sufficient: “According to the data of real estate companies, the correction factor is equal to ...”. Seemingly convincing is the indication of the phone number and address of the real estate company. It is difficult to understand why the opinion of realtors, who are not engaged in market analytics and are not in any way responsible for the result of the assessment, should be trusted more than the opinion of a specialist appraiser. Nevertheless, the analysis of various reports shows that there are such “justifications” in the reports.

Coefficients and parameters taken from foreign sources.

Outwardly, it seems more reasonable to use coefficients and parameters taken from foreign sources. For example, when evaluating a business, to calculate the WACC, a coefficient characterizing the ratio of equity and borrowed funds is required. The well-known methodological developments highly reputable companies are encouraged to use coefficients from foreign sources. Values ​​of discounts for lack of control and low liquidity in the valuation of shares are substantiated in the same way. Of course, the data provided in articles, books, on the websites of well-known news agencies are usually the result of real research and are trustworthy. But is it necessary to explain that today the Russian market is far from meeting the parameters of Western markets, and such parameters and coefficients do not reflect the realities of the Russian market.

Correction factors based on a small sample.

The method of paired sales has become widespread in appraisal practice, which provides correcting coefficients. If we exclude deliberately incorrect data processing methods, then the problem boils down to a large dispersion of the estimated coefficient. The fact is that observations on prices, even within a homogeneous sample, usually form a large scatter, due to the very statistical nature of prices in the market.

With the correct use of the paired sales method, the evaluator generates sample values ​​of the correction coefficients that represent the ratio of observations from two independent samples. In this case, the coefficient of variation (the standard deviation of the coefficients, expressed in relative units (in percent) with respect to the mean value) is approximately one-fold higher than the coefficient of variation for the primary sample. And the quasi-homogeneous sample formed after the adjustments, which is used directly for assessing the market value, will already be in
times have a higher coefficient of variation than the corresponding homogeneous sample. Thus, on the one hand, the paired sales method allows you to expand the initial sample for the assessment, on the other hand, it increases the dispersion in it due to the use of correction factors calculated with a large error.

This is especially true for market segments characterized by low liquidity, the dispersion of results is very large. In this case, the assessment of the market value of such objects with the calculation of correction factors for a small sample leads to unacceptably large errors and the expansion of the sample due to the "given" data in this case reduces the accuracy of the final estimate. These problems are largely eliminated if the calculations of the correction factors are carried out on the basis of samples of sufficient size (50 - 100 values) and when using special methods of statistical analysis based on robust (i.e., noise-resistant) procedures.

Small sample regression

As an example of such an approach, let us consider the construction of a regression dependence of the price of an object on a pricing factor (or several factors - multiple regression). For example, the influence of the scale factor or the factor of distance from the center when assessing commercial real estate... In general, such an approach cannot raise objections. However, the influence of the so-called latent (uncontrolled) factors leads to the inevitable blurring of such dependencies, which is reflected in the fact that the coefficient of determination (known R-square) takes on rather small values ​​(0.2-0.5). The low value of the coefficient of determination itself is not an obstacle to the use of correction factors. However, under these conditions, in order to provide statistically significant values ​​of the parameters of the regression dependence (correction coefficients), rather large volumes of initial data are required. It can be shown that the minimum required amount of data on prices for regression by 2-3 factors should be at least 25. If prices for 5-10 objects are used, then the obtained corrections cannot be recognized as correct, which is easy to see if validation using statistical tests (for example, Student's test or F-square). In addition, the regression curves obtained in this way are very sensitive to individual sample values. That's why small data regression, like the previous options, provides a basis for manipulating the results against the background of apparent legitimacy.

Attention should be paid to a very common misconception among evaluators using multiple regression methods. Often, evaluators increase the number of pricing factors of the regression parameters, mistakenly believing that this increases the accuracy of the estimate. This misconception is based on the well-known fact that with an increase in the dimension of the parameter space, the residuals decrease on average. This, however, is not a sign of improved accuracy. Moreover, as shown in publications on regression analysis, an unjustified increase in the number of parameters (regressors) can lead to a decrease in accuracy.

Thus, the methods of processing statistical information of a small volume (small sample) used in the practice of assessment, when seriously considered, cause serious objections and, most often, can be considered unreliable if a professional in the field of statistical estimation theory acts as an opponent.

Therefore, even the most conscientious and qualified appraiser, working in conditions of lack of information, is under the threat of recognition of the report as unreliable with all the ensuing consequences.

^ Breaking the information impasse

The experience of Western countries, where valuation activities have existed for a long time, shows that the necessary Information Support for appraisal activities is created within the framework of special analytical studies of specialized information and analytical agencies. Any appraiser has the opportunity to obtain all the parameters that characterize the market, necessary for the appraisal.

Recently, various studies have appeared in Russian publications aimed at creating such security for the Russian market. and etc.). The continuation and development of such studies, with the publication of integrated (summary) data in information sources available to appraisers, is the only real strategy for breaking the information deadlock and creating conditions for the implementation of an objective and civilized assessment.

The main source of information about the market is data on transactions or, in their absence, data on the offer prices of objects. These data make it possible to assess the state of the market, to establish the influence of the value parameters of real estate objects on their value, to see trends in the market and the expectations of participants. It should be noted right away that information on sales prices is a priority, and therefore we share the opinion of everyone who believes that collecting statistics, monitoring the market, and all kinds of research into the influence of various parameters of real estate objects on their market value are necessary.

However, there is another source of market information. The point is that the state, mood and expectations of the market are determined by complex interaction all market participants and, above all, buyers and sellers. The financial capabilities of the participants, their motivation in making decisions regarding the sale / purchase of real estate and, finally, their expectations are the driving force that determines the prices in the market at the moment and their dynamics for a predictable future. Therefore, information obtained directly from market participants can help make correct judgments about the value of real estate, or at least understand how certain factors in the minds of people affect their value. It is the market participants who establish their attitude to objects with different value characteristics, and in this sense, for example, the dependence of the market value of an office space on the floor is a subjective value. At the same time, prices in the market are formed as a result of the interaction of subjective opinions of many market participants. Therefore, market value reflects the collective opinion of market participants. Thus, the specific characteristics of the real estate market are subjective in nature, as they reflect the views of individual actors. On the other hand, these characteristics are the results of the interaction of a large number of such subjects, and therefore are objective.

Ideally, a complete picture of the market could be recreated if it was possible to interview all market participants. Further, with all the information, some general characteristics can be determined, reflecting the general state of the real estate market and all the required characteristics.

However, the practical implementation of the idea of ​​collecting data directly from market participants encounters fundamental difficulties on the way of its practical implementation. Therefore, we should look for ways to ensure its implementation in practice.

The first step in this direction consists in replacing the main market participants with specialists - appraisers who communicate with market participants, both through direct contact and through acquaintance with offers published in various media. Thus, each appraiser, based on personal knowledge and processing large amounts of information about the market, develops his own opinion, which he can formulate in the desired form. Of course, the ability to process information is different for all people. Therefore, people, relying even on the same experience, have different judgments regarding certain parameters. To reduce the value of the subjective component characteristic of each appraiser, we have implemented a project to form collective expert assessments of the parameters of the real estate market.

Within the framework of this project, the opinions of appraisers regarding the market parameters were collected, analyzed, processed and in accordance with the rules and methods of expert assessment, and collective expert assessments were formed on the parameters necessary for appraisers, reflecting the opinion of a large number of professional appraisers from various cities and regions of the Russian Federation. Below is information on the implementation of the second phase of this project.

^ short info about the project for the formation of collective expert assessments of the parameters of the real estate market

Project participants

The problem of selecting experts to form a collective expert opinion is one of the most difficult and responsible. During the first stage of the project, we invited professional real estate appraisers as experts. We proceeded from the fact that their experience in appraisal work, constant study (monitoring) of the market and an analytical approach to the analysis of market processes make it possible to best form an idea of ​​the parameters of the market, and combining the opinions of various appraisers to neutralize the individual characteristics of each of them. It should be noted that during the discussion on the Labrate.ru portal, opinions were expressed that direct operators of the real estate market - employees of real estate companies - should be invited as experts. However, attempts to collect the necessary information on the real estate market convinced that realtors, far from analytical work, are not ready to present a generalized opinion on the state of the real estate market. In addition, without being interested in the results of such work, they will not provide the breadth of market coverage required for this type of research.

Thus, as in the first stage, professional Appraisers with experience practical work in the field of property valuation. The survey of experts was carried out by means of a questionnaire with a standard set of questions. At the same time, however, the range of questions formulated in the questionnaire was significantly expanded in comparison with the first stage. Here are some comparative data on the main characteristics of the expert survey.

In total, 206 professional Appraisers from 55 cities of the Russian Federation took part in the project: From Kaliningrad to Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk and Petropavlovsk Kamchatsky, from Novorossiysk to Murmansk, as well as the cities of Ukraine (Kiev, Sevastopol). Comparative data of the first and second stages are shown in the table.

Below is a list of cities for which at least 6 questionnaires were received.

One of the most important issues is the question of the nature of the information collected. Depending on the questions posed in the questionnaire, experts can present information both in the form of point estimates and in the form of intervals.

Interval expert assessments are a new promising direction in the theory and practice of expert assessments, which is just beginning to develop. When using the method of interval expert evaluations, instead of evaluating an indicator or characteristic of an object by number, the expert indicates the interval in which the characteristic being evaluated is contained. As noted in the Report, carried out on the basis of more than twenty years of experience of the Expert Assessments Commission of the Scientific Council of the USSR Academy of Sciences on the complex problem of Cybernetics, interval estimation is more natural for an expert than estimation by a number. Indeed, our experience of seminars in various cities, including a survey of listeners who, at the same time, performed the functions of experts, convinces us that, for example, it is easier and clearer to indicate an interval of predicted values ​​of the expected price growth rate for an Appraiser than to indicate a single value of the required parameter. Therefore, we considered it expedient to use the method of interval expert evaluations along with traditional schemes. Here, however, it should be noted that the processing of such data is not limited to traditional statistical methods, but requires the use of special procedures for analyzing interval data, which have just begun to develop recently.

Features of the 2nd stage of the study

1. As experts in our survey, as well as at the first stage, practicing Appraisers participated from among those who systematically get acquainted, primarily through Internet resources, with new developments in the field of appraisal. Although the Valuers themselves are not directly involved in transactions, it seems to us that they, constantly working with Valuation Orders, due to the analytical nature of such work, are more capable of generalizations about market processes than other market participants. The correctness and effectiveness of such a choice was confirmed by the results of a survey during the implementation of the first stage of the project. Therefore, we considered it expedient to preserve the principle of forming a group of experts and invited professional Appraisers to participate in the survey as experts.

2. In the studies of the second stage, 210 appraisers took part - representatives of 52 cities of the Russian Federation (at the first stage, 100 Appraisers from 31 cities), which made it possible to expand the geography of our research and get a more complete picture of the characteristics of the market throughout Russia. One of the objectives of the study was to identify the dependence of the value of the assessed parameters on the characteristics of the constituent entity of the Federation (the number of cities and the income of the population), since these characteristics are an important pricing factor. The volume of data obtained at the second stage made it possible to carry out such a study.

3. The form of presentation of expert opinions is fundamental. Having studied the experience of the first stage, we considered it necessary to abandon the traditional approach, when in the process of polling point values ​​of the required market characteristics are requested. practice. Therefore, in the questionnaires for all three blocks of questions, it was proposed to indicate the interval in which, in the opinion of the expert, the parameter being determined should be located (for example, a discount on bargaining).

4. Since the initial data based on the results of the expert survey are interval values, the data processing is carried out using, along with the traditional, other interval analysis procedures. In particular, as a result of processing, an interval of values ​​was used, which is the intersection of the original intervals. In other words, the interval obtained in our study shows the range of values ​​representing the intersection of the intervals proposed by each participant in the expert survey. If such an interval exists, then it can be considered as consensus, since it includes the opinion of all experts. However, since with 200 survey participants, the interval representing the intersection of all 200 intervals most often narrows to zero, we exclude some of the values. In a sense, obtained from an incomplete set of initial intervals, the resulting interval of values ​​characterizes an approximate consensus. And the share of experts (the number of experts referred to the total number of survey participants, whose opinion at the same time participates in the formation of the obtained interval), in a sense, can be considered as a probability. In this case, however, it should be understood that this interval is fundamentally different from the confidence interval, which is the area in which the value of the estimated parameter is located with a given probability (which in this case is called confidence).

5. In contrast to the processing at the first stage, the primary data processing at the second stage was carried out according to the standard scheme for calculating point estimates and the confidence interval.

The results are currently being processed. The final materials will be published.

^ Bibliography:

1. 
   V. A. Volnova, E. I. Khrapel, E. P. Balakina, appraisers of LLC "Siberian appraiser" Determination of the market value of the rental rate of the premises of the appraisal object by the method of correction coefficients. Magazine: "Property relations" No. 4 (55), 2006
2. 
   Krivozubov S.P. Comparative Approach. Collection of materials of the international congress of appraisers of the CIS "Mass and individual appraisal of real estate for the purpose of seizure for state and municipal needs, the formation of a cadastre and privatization", Ufa, 35 = 26 May 2010.
3. 
   Leifer L.A. Collection of materials of the international congress of appraisers of the CIS "Mass and individual appraisal of real estate for the purpose of seizure for state and municipal needs, the formation of a cadastre and privatization", Ufa, 35 = 26 May 2010.
4. 
   Anisimova I.N., Barinov N.P., Gribovskiy S.V. Accounting for multi-type pricing factors in multivariate regression models for real estate appraisal. "Evaluation Questions - No. 2, 2004."
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   V. Misovets, Article Interfax-AKI, http://www.labrate.ru/.
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   A.A. Marchuk The use of expert opinion in determining the amount of discount for bargaining, Professional scientific and practical journal "Voprosy otsenki" - 2007, No. 1
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   Leifer L. A., Grishina M. Collective expert assessments of the characteristics of the real estate market, Register of appraisers, No. 3, 2010