To identify the problems of insufficient reproduction or identifying factors ...
Russian GDP at the end of the past year amounted to 92 trillion rubles. - an increase of 1.5%, Rosstat said. The Ministry of Economic Development noted the leading increase in consumption and investment. But the GDP growth data turned out to be worse than the forecast of the government
Photo: Evgeny Biyat / RIA Novosti
The gross domestic product (GDP) of Russia last year grew by 1.5%, follows from the data published by Rosstat: according to its preliminary assessment, the economy produced 92.1 trillion rubles. For the whole year at current prices. This is even a little more than the day before President Vladimir Putin (+ 1.4%).
In the context of economic sectors, the largest growth of Rosstat recorded in the sphere of culture, sports, leisure and entertainment - 5%. This may be associated with investments in the preparation of the 2018 World Cup. The area of \u200b\u200btransportation and storage increased by 3.7%, by 3.6% - the information and telecommunications industry, and 3.1% - wholesale and retail trade (plus repair of vehicles).
The fall is recorded in the areas of construction (-0.2%), health and social services (-0.2%), education (-0.1%).
Investments and stocks grew the most
Another way to look at GDP is the end spending in the economy. According to Rosstat, the final consumption of households increased by 3.4% in 2017. Gross accumulation jumped by 7.6% (after a decrease of 1.9% in 2016), including investments in fixed assets increased by 3.6%. Such a speaker may be associated with increasing business reserves (change in inventory inventory enters gross accumulation. - RBC), Chief Economist Alpha-Bank Natalia Orlova believes. According to her, the contribution of the reserves was significant in the second quarter of last year. "In the structure of the use of GDP, it is clear that the increase in reserves has increased almost twice (2.18 trillion to 1.27 trillion rubles)," said Senior Analyst of the Center for Economic Forecasting Gazprombank Kirill Kononov.
The expenditures of the public administration sector decreased by 0.9%, reflecting the reduction in budget expenditures in real terms.
At the same time, the share of consumer spending in the economy decreased to 52.2% compared with 52.8% a year earlier. The share of investment in GDP increased from 21.6 to 21.8%, and the replenishment of material current reserves of the business - from 1.5 to 2.3%.
"After the decline in 2015 and 2016, the economy returned to growth. Consumer demand added 3.4%, and investments - 3.6%. The current assessment has not yet taken into account the data on the dynamics of small and medium-sized businesses and other annual reporting, which should be received later and will be taken into account when publishing subsequent assessments, "commented statistics Minister of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin on his Facebook page. The data published by Rosstat turned out to be lower than the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, which in the basic scenario talked about GDP growth by 2.1%.
In continuing the topic of energy-saving technologies in agricultural production, import substitution and food security, give excerpts from the article on the successes of 2016. According to crop 2017, it is already clear that it is also recorded. So success is not accidental. Sanctions only accelerated the introduction of several important programs of the state, as well as private initiatives. Not all problems are solved, but there are structural changes.
Sight. RU -
Agriculture of Russia almost reached its ceiling
January 27, 2017, 19:55
Text: Olga Samofalova
In 2016, Russia gathered a record harvest, became the world leader in wheat exports, and in general, the APC showed a fantastic growth of almost 5%.
The head of government urged to do everything possible so that the growth rate of agriculture is reduced. However, there are a number of circumstances that are able to prevent Russian agro-industry in the same pace.
Last - 2016 - year became very successful for the agro-industrial complex of Russia. Agricultural production in Russia increased by 4.8%, record crops were obtained, and in the export of wheat of the Russian Federation became the world leader. However, will these successes succeed in 2017?
The state for its part continues to support the industry. In general, 75 billion rubles will be sent to support agriculture in 2017.
However, experts are confident that from the APC this year should not expect high growth rates - and well, if there is no fall.
"We had phenomenal growth rates in 2016 - about 5%, as we predicted in October. However, this year, if some miracle does not happen (it is theoretically, it is, of course, it is possible), we are expected growth rates close to zero. Because a very high plank has been reached in 2016, and it will be hard to overcome in one year, even in purely natural conditions, "says the Goseta, the general director of the Institute of Conjuncture of the Agrarian Market (ICAR) Dmitry Rylko.
The miracle this year he calls, for example, beautiful weather, which would allow the agrarians to add grain and oilseed. The last two years, crop production has shown a significant increase due to good weather and, as a result, a record harvest. However, this year yield, most likely, will be worse - good weather is extremely rarely folded for three years in a row. After very harvest years, there is inevitably a decrease in fees due to weather. "2016 was the warmest in the entire history of observations. It is unlikely that such weather will repeat in 2017, "says Dmitry Lukashov from IFC Markets.
- The weather in 2017 was successful, wheat harvest again recorded, perfectly succeeded vegetables, fruits and grapes.
Miraculously be the growth of world prices for agricultural products. At the same time, the main proportion of the growth of the agro-industrial complex was on crop production.
- Competition in the global market of an acute agriculture market. There are no miracles with prices. Wheat can be sold only on dumping.
However, the animal husbandry this year will be difficult to continue growth. And the reason is not only high base, but in the saturation of the market and decrease in domestic demand. Russian animal husbandry is completely dependent on the domestic market. It would seem that the growth driver could be expanding the export of meat. However, in practice it is almost impossible to implement it.
In the animal husbandry, the production plan is high, the solvent demand is not growing yet, while the Russian market looks rich, notes a sniff. "It's not necessary to expand on export to export, we just have no such opportunity. We are uncompetitive, our products are expensive. Even in a chicken, we are uncompetitive. In 2016, we sent to export 100 thousand tons of chicken products. If this year we will send the export as much - then it will be good. But even if we are not 100 this year, and 120 thousand tons will be sent for export, it will not shift the situation as a whole, because these are not the volumes that significant growth rates in the poultry industry, "says the general director of the institute of the agricultural market conjuncture . Compared to production volumes of exports - a drop in the sea.
In the last year, high hopes are imposed on the access of Russian meat to the Chinese market. The Chinese consider imported meat to better, and the Russian is all the more. However, negotiations with the PRC on the removal of restrictions and the opening of the access of Russian meat to the local market have not yet led to the result. As, however, there is no guarantee that, having received access to China, Russian livestock breeders will be able to conquer a serious proportion of the Chinese market.
Exit for Russian animal husbandry is to go into deep processing of meat. Only then will they be able to hold current high performance and even increase production volumes.
But to continue to delight the high growth rates this year can vegetable growing. Production of vegetables closed soil over the past four years (from 2013 to 2016) increased by 52%, open - by 20%. At the same time, imports have been seriously reduced - by 40% and 20%, respectively, leads data to the National Union of Fruit and Vegetables manufacturers. If the ban on the import of vegetables from Turkey, from where the main part of tomatoes and cucumbers was imported, will continue for another three years, it will allow Russian production to keep the two-digit growth rates.
- Turkey returned to the end of 2017 to the Russian market. The quality of Turkish vegetables is considered low. However, only soil domestic vegetables are relatively reliable on environmental purity. Greenhouse cucumbers are frankly bad in their mass, quickly disappear. Tomatoes, on the contrary, are stored for a long time and look good, but there are no taste, no fragrance.
In general, I do not see the drivers for the growth of the APC this year. At first, the Russian APK began to add against the background of the growth of world prices for agricultural products and an increase in demand for biofer and demand for food in Asia and China. Three years ago, new drivers appeared for the Russian APK in the form of a twofold devaluation of the ruble in the conditions of falling oil and food embargo. However, by the end of 2016, these growth drivers almost completely played, new ones.
In general, the APK could help the ruble, if he had returned to 70-75 per dollar / euro.
"But this, firstly, also from the area of \u200b\u200bthe miracle, secondly, in this case, Russian companies have other problems," says Rylko. In addition to macroeconomic instability and inflation, it is necessary to understand that in agriculture the share of imports is also great.
"The main problem of Russian agrarians is a strong dependence on such compulsory imported components, such as seeds, pesticides, veterinary drugs, feed biolates, and so on. Agrarians sell their products in Russia, and with the weakening of the ruble they have financial problems. Strengthening the ruble, on the contrary, improves performance due to the ability to purchase the necessary imports, "says Dmitry Lukashov. If in crop production, the increase in the cost of imported component can still be compensated by exports, then it does not go out in animal husbandry.
A new growth driver for agriculture of Russia can be the growth of the Russian economy and the growth of real salaries of Russians, with recovery of consumer demand. It is Russians by their wallets could support agriculture. "As soon as the incomes of people begin to grow, the demand for meat and other expensive products of agrarians will increase," says Lukashov.
By the end of 2016, a decline began in the agro-industrial complex (APK), which will increase in 2017, market participants are confident. They note that the state, although declares the support of the industry, in recent years energetically turns it. Due to the sharp growth of administrative barriers, the high cost of loans and the reduction of buying demand of the population entrepreneurs reluctantly invest in the APC. In 2015, according to Petrostat » The volume of investment in agriculture Leningrad region fell by 30% compared with the indicators of the pre-crisis 2013. In general, in the Russian Federation, the fall reached 40%.This will affect the industry indicators: instead of growing production volumes (in 2015, it amounted to 3.5%, making the APC in the leading industry of the Russian Federation) market participants predict the fall. Last year was exceptionally successful for APK. Agraria collected:
61.8 million tons of wheat (versus 59.7 million in 2014),
33.6 million tons of potatoes (15.9% more average over the past 5 years, in 2014 it was 31.5 million),
The record harvest of vegetables is assembled - 16.1 million tons (12.3% above the average five-year level, in 2014 - 15.5 million),
Cattle and birds at slaughter in live weight produced 13.4 million tons (plus 4.2% to the level of 2014).
As a result of Russia, it was possible in 2015 to reduce the cost of purchasing foods abroad almost twice as compared with 2014 - up to $ 23 billion. However, these successes should not be misleading, warns the ex-head of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, and now the director of the International Independent Institute of Agrarian Policy Elena Skrynnik. Agriculture - the industry is extremely inertial. Production growth last year is the result of projects that were launched in 2012 - 2013. In 2014 - 2015, new investment projects launched extremely small: 9.2 billion rubles were invested in the Leningrad region in 2013, in 2014 - 7.3 billion, in 2015 - 6.4 billion. In the Russian Federation, investments were compiled accordingly: 517 billion, 510 billion and 320 billion rubles. "In the future, it will be ahead," Andrei Holokhwast, the head of GK Gokhwastov, is sure. Now the agro-industrial complex develops on the inertia with a downward trend, the Skidnik approves. Investors ended the potential laid due to state support programs in 2009-2012. For example, the lowest credit rates in meat and dairy cattle breeding are 6 - 10% per annum (taking into account state support), in crop production - 9 - 13%. "It is impossible to grow under these conditions, since the cost-effectiveness on average in the industry is several times lower," Elena Skrynnik summarizes.
Entrepreneurs agree with the ex-minister.
The embargo prompted the industry to develop, but the cardinal change has not yet happened, the general director of the GC "Losevo" Eldar Runov. Loans are not available, the infrastructure of the village leaves much to be desired, and the personnel comes with to dull. "We did not expect that in a couple of years everything will work out, but judging by what we see, it will be delayed for a long time," says Runkov. "We bought the first pig farm in 2007, in 2011 they built a new one, and in March 2016 were going to start building a third. But we will not start, because since 2011, the number of administrative barriers has grown four, "Tatyana Sharygin says the general director of the company" Idavang Agro ". The authorities demanded that the company two seasons conduct archaeological excavations at the construction site - suddenly there will be a parking lot of an ancient person. The Ministry of Agriculture has ceased to approve subsidized loans. "Idavang" from July 2, 2015 can not get a loan of 200 million rubles in Rosselkhozbank: the bank of the company will, the manufacturer considers the manufacturer, demanding to correct all new shortcomings in the documentation. Lenenergo does not agree on the technical conditions for joining networks. "It seems to say everything: Build. But in fact, with all the forces impede it.As a result, the hands are descended. Looking at us, those who were also going to build, refuse this idea, "the Sharygin complains. The Sinyavinskaya poultry farm owner Nikita Melnikov adds: no one will launch new projects for loans for commercial banks under 25%. The costs of doing business in the APC are growing, he notes: the feed in 2015 went up by 60%, electricity tariffs - by 31%, increased vehicles, equipment and equipment. At the same time, it is adequate to raise prices for products manufacturers can not be due to the fall of the purchasing power of the population. According to the study of the Levada Center, at the end of 2015, 58% of Russians stated that they were saved on food, at the end of 2014 there were 37%. Rosstat estimated that retail trade over the same period decreased by 10%.
Investments in agriculture have always paid off (on average 10 years), and due to the fall in real incomes of the population (by 10% in 2015) it became even more problematic. "Previously, the consumer saved on entertainment and clothing, now - on food," says Eldar Runkov. Non-profile investors who were paying back to the embargo on the rapid payup. But they calculated. " Consumption falls, it means that will Fall and production. As a result, in 2017 we will not get such production growth, as in 2015. And if the situation will develop the same way as recently, it will lead to the fall of the entire industry, "says Nikita Melnikov.
The production of agricultural products in Russia in 2017 increased by 2.4% almost to 5.1 trillion rubles. As reported RosstatSuch data obtained taking into account the clarification of the dynamics of the production of certain types of agricultural products by months. So, as follows from the materials, the dynamics estimate is adjusted aside for each month last year by 0.2-0.3 paragraph. To the corresponding month of last year. In December, the growth of the agro-industrial complex was 3.4% in annual terms, and the highest indicator during 2017 was recorded in September, when the production of agricultural products, according to the updated data, increased by 8.7%.
One of the key factors that influenced the positive dynamics of last year, became a record grain harvest, which compared with 2016 grew by 11.2% to 134.1 million tons. Including wheat production increased by 17.1% to 85 , 8 million tons, barley - by 14.4% to 20.6 million tons. At the same time, the gross collection of the main technical agro-grundings decreased: sugar beet - by 6.1%, sunflower - by 12.6% and flabbling - on 6.3%, which is due to a reduction in their yield by 8.5%, 2.6% and 2.1%, as well as a decrease in the depressed sunflower space (by 10.5%) and flax-dollants (by 4.3%) Compared to the level of the previous year, it is noted in the materials Rosstat. Gross potato collection decreased by 4.9% by reducing the placed areas, the collection of vegetables was preserved at the level of the previous year. Gross collection of greenhouse vegetables amounted to 952.6 thousand tons, which is 17% higher than 2016 level, reported Ministry of Agriculture.
In addition to the harvest, a significant contribution to the dynamics of the agro-industrial complex made an increase in the production of all animal products, commented on " Agroinvestor.»Head of the Center for Economic Forecasting Gazprombank Daria Noncontko. "This is especially true of poultry and pork meat, which demonstrated growth of about 5%, as well as eggs," said Noncontko. According to Rosstat, the production of livestock and poultry on slaughter in all farms for the year increased by 4.7% to 14.6 million tons in live weight, the release of eggs added 2.8% to 44.8 billion pieces, milk superstries increased by 1.2% Up to 31.1 million tons. The population of pigs in the country by the end of December was estimated at 23.3 million animals (5.7% more than the level of late 2016), birds - 556.6 million (0.7% more), CRS - 18.6 million (0.6% less), sheep and goats - 24.5 million (1.3% less). According to RosstatIn the structure of the livestock structure on the economy of the population accounted for 42.5% of the country's total ridge country, 12.9% of pigs, 46.2% of sheep and goats.
Thus, last year the growth rate of the agro-industrial complex exceeded the planned indicator laid down in the state program of the development of agriculture. In accordance with it, in 2017, production should have increased by 1.7%. At the same time, the final value was lower than the level expected by the Ministry of Agriculture. So, at the end of November, speaking at the Council of Federation, the head of the department Alexander Tkachev assessed the growth of the APK at 3.5%, in mid-December this forecast was reduced to about 3%. The updated program translated from this year to project management, for 2018, the level of 5.9-6.6% is indicated to the value of 2015, despite the fact that only in 2016 the APC rose by 4.8%.
Reducing the growth rates of APK twice as early as the 2016 level, despite the update of the grain collection record, has occurred for two main reasons. One of them - those who remain relatively low prices for all agricultural products in the world, said the director of the Analytical Center " Sovieconom»Andrei Sizov at the AgroHolding Conference of Russia - 2017 in December. "We are part of the global market, and the low global price for meat, sugar or grain also affects us," said Sizes. These low prices are superimposed by a low ruble exchange rate, which is steadily strengthened from the beginning of 2016.
In 2018, the Center for Economic Forecasting Gazprombank is still awaiting a decline in the exhaust in agriculture as a whole, Daria Nonfko notes. "The main reason is the likely reduction of gross collection relative to the last year's record," she said. Tkachev, in turn, is waiting for growth at least 3%. As Minister January 18 stated, such an indicator will be achieved by implementing the import substitution program, the creation of new enterprises and modernization of older.
Sanctions from Russia were not discontinued, oil remains at 45% of the prices of 2014, the Russians are sharply feeling a crisis, saving on products, and the authorities already declare that since November 2016 the economic situation in the country has become changed, and the country has reached a weak economic growth . The President reported to the people that the sanctions went to us only for the benefit, it was they who became an incentive for the development of the economy. Economic Development data for five months of this year has shown that the Kremlin is preparing for the presidential campaign and "raises" statistical indicators on paper. After all, not with the six-year-failed president to go for a new term.
Exit from recession
Rosstat's latest data has shown that GDP finally entered plus and recession overcome. However, according to the economists of the BCS and FC "URALSIB", this was achieved through the increase in prices for oil and governmentality, the rest of the economy either stagnates or decreases. According to the VSE data, the share of sectors related to the extraction of raw materials in Russian GDP has grown from 7.8% in 2013 to 8.2% in 2016. The share of defense industries and public administrations rose from 5.5% to 5.8%, thereby the total weight in the economy of the commodity and military industries reached a maximum of at least 2011.
Construction, for example, for five months in the volume of input areas fell by 12.6%. The colossal gap between the commodity and production economy suggests that the trend on the restoration of illusory and fragile is due to the economic situation - energy prices. If last year, each barrel of Russian oil was sold abroad by $ 31.99, then this is 52.04. As the 2008 crisis showed, such a restoration of the economy is temporary and leads to protracted crises with a reduction in lags of the time of the intercrisis period.
Industrial production
According to official data, the main indicators of economic growth in the country began to grow. For five months of this year, industrial production has increased by 1.7%, although the manufacturing industry is only 0.9%. If we translate these figures to the level of the 201g 2013, the production of the manufacturing industry, Russia is now 2.5% produces products less than 3.5 years ago. And if in 2013 the share of imports in the Russian economy reached some commodity groups up to 90%, it is logical that, with a decrease in the manufacturing products, imports independentness did not decrease, but only increased. Although Medvedev has already managed to report that "in 2016 the most promising branches of the Russian industry developed, certain results were achieved in the import substitution program."
The country was dependent on foreign goods, it continues to depend on them, since its production has not increased. The main factors of entrepreneurial growth - accessible loans and predictable conditions for doing business have not been working for a long time. On a straight line, for example, one of the questions was about high rates - "The actual rate in our particular case was 19 percent of the annual - 18.75. With such rates, what was said at the beginning, we do not build a new economy, and the business does not have such, unfortunately, profitability, as we would like. " Business rules also changed repeatedly, each time in the direction of introducing new fees and obstacles. This is a Platon system, an increase in the cost of transportation, new requirements for cash registers, the night of buckets, trade fees in the cities of federal significance and so on.
The main growth factor of industrial indicators is a change in the calculation methodology by Rosstat, which moved from the OKVED system, and OKVED-2. As noted in the center of development of the HSE, which occurred sharp jump industrial production in May 5.6% year to year against 0.7% increase in January-April, which led to the acceleration of GDP growth in May to 3.1% year by year (against 0.5% in the first quarter and 1.7% in April), was due to statistical problems of industrial production indices and wholesalers. More precisely, the imperfection of the methodology itself. But now Rosstat is directly subordinated to the Ministry of Economic Development, so in the future he will serve the Office, catering him with statistics. The Ministry of Economic Development Soon after subordination Rosstat, he already reported that the rate of economic growth was accelerated almost twice and became recorded for 5 years.
Whatever numbers of almost zero increase in Rosstat for the Kremlin, it is obvious that exist with the growth rates at the level of the statistical error of such a country as Russia is simply unacceptable, since it is a direct path to a new protracted economic crisis.
INVESTMENTS
As for the investment in fixed assets, which, according to the data for the first quarter, increased by 2.3%, they were predominantly seen only two sectors of the economy - as usual production and transportation of raw materials, as well as the financial sector serving the streams of the "pipe economy". More than 40% of investments in fixed assets accounted for mining and the construction of pipelines for their transportation abroad. In the real production sector, investment decline on the contrary continues. For example, in the manufacturing industry, the capacity of the caps fell by another 6.7%, although 25% of the capacity is completely outdated and cannot produce products. In the metallurgy, the caps fell almost 30%, in the production of metal products - by 24.7%, in the motor vehicle sector - by 32.2%. According to the conclusions of Sberbank economists, the growth of investments was due to the "factor of the capital", budget funds and a gas project "Power of Siberia", that is, in no way indicate the restoration of the activity of the private sector.
INFLATION
Inflation reached a record low level - 4.4%, although earlier we have already written that these indicators are clearly understated, since the current economic law is violated the rate of rates of the Central Bank and inflation in a certain corridor. Now the rate is not adjusted at the same pace as inflation, which indicates that inflation is consciously underestimated (Fig. 1).
Fig. 1. The attitude of the weighted range at the end of the year to inflation
During the periods when inflation was above the bet, the Central Bank was focused on economic growth, stimulated by mitigating monetary policy. So it was in 2007-2008, followed by a crisis caused by changing the cost of oil. The Central Bank also increased the bid for a year, but in 2010 she was lower than inflation. In 2013, the Central Bank makes the decision to navigate not to the account, but on a key rate that was on three pp. below account. Then we again see the effect of the low coefficient.
That is, it can be said that in certain historical intervals, the Bank of Russia has stimulated the economy due to the redundancy of the loan. Based on this, in the following years, the bank would have to keep this ratio close to 1: 1, but instead there was a new picture, which was not observed before Putin. Namely, suddenly the inflation parameter sharply went down without objective of the reasons, and the Bank of Russia slightly adjusted the bet. Last year, the inflation rate was almost two times lower than the rate, this year the same picture. And the coefficient itself has grown from 0.98 (2015) to 1.96 (2016). According to the initial logic, the Central Bank would have to reduce the rate to 5-7%, but not to stop at the level of 9.25%. But this did not do this. What does it say about? The fact that the real level of inflation is much higher than we are reported to the statists and officials. Apparently, it is 8-13% in boundaries.
Cargo turnover and foreign trade
Record steel growth rates - 7%, railway turnover - 7.4% for five months of the current year, as well as the growth rate of export and imports, which reached 31.8% and 24%, respectively. It is an increase in the transportation of products for foreign trade operations and led to an increase in the value of the freight turnover parameter. If you compare the data for 4 months of 2017 with data for 4 months of 2014, that is, with an almost reduction period, the export volumes in 2014 were 1.55 times higher than the current indicators, and imports of 1.48 times. Even with such high export and import growth rates this year, we have to state that we are still far from the pre-crisis level. And no less important point - at the expense of which there was an increase in exports and imports. Exports increased mainly due to mineral resources and metals and products of them (Fig. 2). That is, Russia did not change its production profile in world trade. Imports increased by purchasing machines and equipment that increased by 27.5%, this is despite the fact that they occupy 45% in the import structure.
Fig. 2. The ratio of exports and imports in January-April 2017 to exports and imports for January-April 2016 (according to the FCS)
The Russian economy has retained its commodity profile and for good figures in the field of cargo turnover and foreign trade there is nothing more than the consolidation of the commodity of the economy.
The standard of living of Russians
Hide from the population The real state of the economy is difficult when the shelves are filled with imported equipment, toys and medicines of foreign production are sold in stores, and only food products still have labeling done in Russia. But it is even more difficult to hide the real figures from the population when it comes to the level of their well-being. According to official statistics, real revenues of citizens are lower than the level of the previous year by 1.2%, the wages from 2013 fell by almost 5%. Reduced retail trade turnover by 0.8% and zero growth in services to the population suggests that citizens, becoming poorer, reduced their consumption. And on this background, the president continues to say that salary in the country is growing, while on a straight line there were already plots that real salaries are inferred from declared. And there were most such questions.
According to the VTsIOM survey, each tenth Russian lacks money even on food, and 29% noted that they barely grab money on clothes. While Rosstat determines the threshold of poverty at the minimum level of remuneration, Russians themselves are poor consider those who have enough money only to buy clothes and food, and there are 39% in the country, 54% among retirees - 54%, that is, over half! Help from the state to the poor will come in 2019 as part of special support measures to the poor, but at the request of Mantouris in the amount of about 10 thousand rubles per year. It is difficult to imagine how this money will help to Russian citizens. Is that with difficulty enough for the purchase of bread bread daily, while in the idea of \u200b\u200bthe government for this money citizens, whose income do not reach the subsistence minimum, will be able to buy fresh fish, meat and vegetables of Russian production. And this is an additional 27 rubles a day to the family budget!
On an unfavorable situation in the field of income level, the fact that, according to VTSIOM, almost half of Russians intends to spend their holidays at home (47%), 44% of them, the main reason for the abandonment of travel was called money problems.
However, in power another point of view on the well-being of citizens. Siluanov said that "since the beginning of the year, the revenues of our citizens began to grow," although even official statistics indicate about the opposite. Over the past 30 months (from October 2014), only once Rosstat revealed an increase in living standards - in January 2017 after a one-time payment of 5 thousand rubles to pensioners.
According to Rosstat, in five months and real, and the nominal salary, reaching 40,640 rubles in the country. However, most citizens get significantly less: 55% have a salary below 25,000, and a third - even 15 thousand rubles below. According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development in Russia by 2035, the average salary in the country will grow only by 56% and in the optimistic scenario by 2035 will not exceed 800 dollars, although in 2012 and 2013 the average salary was higher than this level (876 and 910 dollars, respectively) !
Is it possible to talk about the restoration of the economy, if the crisis even noticed secured by citizens? Ipsos Comcon's survey conducted in April 2017 showed that more than half (58%) of wealthy Russians noticed changes in the economic situation for the worse. Improvement is expecting only 30% of respondents, 38% suggest that the situation will deteriorate, and 32% predict that changes in the economic situation will not happen.
DEMOGRAPHY
One of the main achievements, about which the president spoke many times - demographic growth, lasted only three years (Fig. 3). Natural growth at the level of 10 times less migration still supported the weak confidence of the president in the correctness of the course chosen by him in the demographic policy, but this year, statistics showed that it was short-lived effect against the background of the overall population reduction. This year, only for four months, the natural decline of the population has already been 92.8 thousand people. The Russian nation has died out, and continues to shrink. And no maternal capital programs can stop this process.
Fig. 3. Natural population growth (according to Rosstat)
Macroeconomic parameters and Rosstat data have already ceased to reflect the real picture of the processes occurring in Russian society. When drawing up strategies and plans, the government should proceed from the mythical numbers, but from the real problems of citizens, which, as the direct line of the president showed, is not enough.
The objective picture of what is happening in the country does not give Rosstat and reports of the government, and the most expensive citizens, letters to the presidential administration, which does not solve the problems of the people, protests, but not unconscious youth without ideological views, and people confronted to despair - truckers, taxpayers, farmers, miners and so on. It's time to listen to the voice of the majority.
Even on the topic
