Unemployment has made Belarus a leader in the post-Soviet space. Official and real unemployment: what the Belarusian authorities are hiding Real unemployment in Belarus

By 19.1 thousand people and reached the level of 1% of the economically active population of the country. The increase in the number of unemployed is associated with the optimization of labor collectives in industry, construction and agriculture. Taking into account the persistence of negative trends and the possible cessation of the activities of entrepreneurs trading in the markets, the number of unemployed in 2016 may increase by 2.5-3 times compared to their number as of January 1, 2016, the experts of Belarus in Focus came to such conclusions .

According to Belstat, as of January 1, 2016, the number of registered unemployed in Belarus amounted to 43.3 thousand people, which is 1% of the economically active population of Belarus. As of January 1, 2015, the registered unemployment rate was 0.5%, and the number of unemployed was 24.2 thousand people. In 2015, for the first time in the past few years, the number of unemployed exceeded the number of vacancies in labor and social protection. As of January 1, the number of vacancies was 28.7 thousand offers, a year earlier the number of vacancies was 33.6 thousand.

The main reason for the change in trends in the labor market was the general situation in the economy. In 2015, there was a decline in the industry, investment in construction was reduced, and there was a decline in the consumer market. As a result of the optimization of labor collectives in 2015, the number of laid-off workers exceeded the number of those hired by 81.3 thousand people, of which 52.5 thousand people were in industry. In the context of a shortage of jobs, low-paid vacancies were filled in the field of social protection, education and health care. The low unemployment rate of about $10 a month and the presence of mandatory public works to receive benefits significantly adjust the real unemployment rate downward.

In 2016, the reduction in the industry will continue, as there are no prerequisites for improvement in the country's economic situation. There are not enough building plots for housing construction, which will lead to further cuts in this area. The decrease in purchasing power will lead to a decrease in retail turnover and the closure of a number of unprofitable stores. A significant part of entrepreneurs trading in the markets have suspended their work and will not be able to continue it due to possible confiscation of goods and penalties for the lack of a certificate of conformity for the products sold.

Due to the lack of vacancies in the labor market, further growth in the number of unemployed is expected. Potential cuts in 2016 may exceed 2015 figures. Given the new seniority requirements for old-age pensions, it will be more difficult for young people to get a job due to an increase in the number of people of retirement age who will hold jobs until they accumulate the necessary seniority for a pension. These factors can lead to a general increase in the number of unemployed in 2016 in the range of 60-90 thousand people, which will increase the unemployment rate by 2.5-3 times compared to the data at the beginning of 2016.

Thus, in 2015 the number of unemployed officially registered with the labor and social protection authorities doubled. Given the persistence of negative trends in the economy and due to the lack of a decision on the further employment of entrepreneurs trading in the markets, the unemployment rate in 2016 may increase by another 2.5-3 times.

Expected it to be worse

Data on the actual unemployment rate for 2016 was published on February 27 in the report of the National Statistical Committee. They are very different from the registered unemployment rate. Information on actual unemployment, which amounted to 5.8% of the economically active population, was obtained by the Statistical Committee in the course of a regular sample survey of households.

This process is based on the standard labor force survey methodology. The survey covers 7,000 households quarterly, or 28,000 households per year.

According to official statistics, 4 million 381.3 thousand people were employed in the Belarusian economy in December 2016, which is 2% less than in December 2015. In January 2017, the number of people employed in the domestic economy decreased by another 14.1 thousand to 4 million 367.2 thousand people, the Belstat press service reported.

The economically active population is people who work (employed) or do not work, but are actively looking for work (unemployed). According to the methodology of the International Labor Organization, this category includes people aged 15 to 72 years.

The declared level of actual unemployment is in some way a sensation, the director writes on tut.by research center Institute of Privatization and Management (IPM) Alexander Chubrik. The fact is that many expected that in the face of such a prolonged economic downturn, unemployment would be a couple of percentage points higher. But in fact, our unemployment rate is comparable to the Russian one (there was 5.4% at the end of 2016), much less than in Ukraine (9.6% in the III quarter of 2016), Latvia (9.8% in the III quarter of 2016), Lithuania (7.5% at the end of 2016), and even slightly less than in Poland (6% at the end of 2016). This, according to the expert, means that business has adapted to the crisis not only (and not so much) through a reduction in employment, but also through a reduction in wages. And also - that the Belarusians are really actively looking for work. Similar mechanisms operated in the labor market in Russia.

From the history of actual unemployment

Belarusians have learned the level of actual unemployment for the fourth time in modern economic history. It first happened in 1999. In that year, the first population census after the collapse of the USSR was held. Then there was triple-digit inflation, multiple exchange rates, and $40 salaries. Against the background of such economic problems, the unemployment rate of 6.2% of the economically active population (according to the census) could hardly surprise anyone. Officially registered unemployment in 1999 was almost three times less - 2.2%.

Registered unemployed in Belarus are those people who have received the status of unemployed in the employment assistance service.

New figures had to wait 10 years - until the next census. 2009 was not a perfect year either. The first currency crisis since 2000. Deep drop in exports and domestic demand. Strong deterioration in the terms of trade for petroleum products. In such conditions, the unemployment rate was 6.1% against the background of 0.86% officially registered.

For the third time, the figure of actual unemployment was published by the National Bank. It was in 2012. The Household Employment Survey had just begun, the economy was growing only at the expense of "solvents" and was gradually moving away from the deepest currency crisis of 2011. The National Bank published the May result of a new Belstat survey - 5.6% of the economically active population. The officially registered unemployed at that time were very rare: they accounted for only 0.65% of the economically active population.

actual unemployment. In censuses and in the Household Employment Survey, Belstat uses the internationally accepted definition of the International Labor Organization. According to this definition, an unemployed person is one who (a) calls himself unemployed, (b) is actively looking for a job, and (c) is ready to start working as soon as possible (within the next 2 weeks). Since far from all such people are registered in Belarus, the number of actual unemployed in Belarus is traditionally higher than the number of registered unemployed.

On the shortcomings in the "design" of social protection for the unemployed

There have always been more actual unemployed in Belarus than registered ones, due to the too small amount of unemployment benefits, which can be received for no more than 6 months, writes Alexander Chubrik. In addition, not all registered unemployed receive even this meager amount of money. To receive benefits, you must participate in community service. In fact, the costs of obtaining the status of registered unemployed exceed the benefits, so unemployed Belarusians prefer to do without registration.

By the way, in some countries, even those who work (in the informal sector) enter the labor exchange. There, the allowance is higher than ours, but there is no requirement to participate in public works. Therefore, sometimes registered unemployment exceeds the actual one, which, by the way, also speaks of shortcomings in the “design” of social protection for the unemployed.

Unemployment in Belarus has reached a historic low. At the beginning of October, there were 15,000 officially unemployed in the country, according to the Ministry of Labor. This is 45.1% less unemployed than a year earlier. The level of registered unemployment at the beginning of this month in Belarus amounted to 0.3%. At the same time, the actual unemployment rate is noticeably higher than the official one: the number of unemployed, classified in accordance with the criteria of the International Labor Organization, was 260.6 thousand people in the first quarter of this year.

The picture is illustrative. Photo: Evgeny Erchak, TUT.BY

The level of registered unemployment in the Brest and Vitebsk regions was 0.5%, in the Gomel, Grodno and Mogilev regions - 0.4%, in the Minsk region - 0.3%, and in Minsk - 0.1%.

Recall that in the country as a whole, the level of registered unemployment at the beginning of September this year was 0.4%, the same figure was at the beginning and - also 0.4%, and at the beginning of June, May, April, March - 0.5%.

Such a low number of officially unemployed, as at the beginning of October, has never been in Belarus. So, at the beginning of September this year, 16.3 thousand people were registered as unemployed, August - 16.6 thousand, July - almost 17.8 thousand, June - 19.8 thousand, May - 21.8 thousand, April - 22.9 thousand, March - 23.9 thousand.

At the end of 2017, there were 22.9 thousand officially unemployed in Belarus, in 2016 - 35.3 thousand, in 2015 - 43.3 thousand, in 2014 - 24.2 thousand, in 2013 - 20.9 thousand, in 2012 - 24.9 thousand, 2013 - 28.2 thousand, 2012 - 33.1 thousand, 2009 - 40.3 thousand, 2008 - 37.3 thousand, 2007 - 44.1 thousand, 2006 - 52 thousand, 2005 - 67.9 thousand, 2004 - 83 thousand, 2003 - 136.1 thousand, 2002 - 130.5 thousand, 2001 - 102.9 thousand, 2000 - 95.8 thousand.

At the same time, the number of vacancies has increased to a record high in Belarus. So, as of October 1 this year, employers reported information about 79.2 thousand vacancies. This is 42.8% more than in the same period last year.

“The demand for workers in working professions amounted to 65.4 percent of the total number of vacancies against 60.3% as of October 1, 2017,” the Ministry of Labor specifies. “The coefficient of tension in the labor market of the republic as of October 1 this year amounted to 0.2 unemployed per vacancy (as of October 1, 2017 - 0.5).”

At the same time, in Brest and Vitebsk regions, this indicator was 0.3 unemployed per vacancy, in Gomel, Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev regions - 0.2, and in Minsk - 0.1 unemployed per vacancy.

Recall that in March last year Alexander Lukashenko to employ by May 1 all the unemployed in the country. It was not possible to fulfill this order, but the number of unemployed in the country, according to official statistics, has decreased. So, as of May 1 last year, there were 39.8 thousand official unemployed in Belarus. In April, their number decreased by 3.6 thousand people. Prior to this, the number of unemployed Belarusians for three months.

In 2017, in Belarus, the number of unemployed, classified in accordance with the ILO criteria, in 2017 was 293.4 thousand people. This is 2.8% less than in 2016.

In terms of unemployment growth, Belarus has become a leader in the CIS. Over the past year, the number of officially registered unemployed in the country has increased by 37.1%. But in terms of the amount of benefits paid to the unemployed, Belarus remains an outsider.

Unemployment growth cartoon background

According to the CIS Statistical Committee as of April 1, in Belarus over the past 12 months the rate of growth in the number of unemployed was the highest in comparison with other states of the post-Soviet space.

So, if in Belarus the number of unemployed increased by 37.1%, then in Kazakhstan - by 23%, in Moldova - by 22.8%, in Armenia - by 11.5%, in Azerbaijan - by 11%, in Russia - by 6%. In Tajikistan (as of March 1), the number of unemployed decreased by 0.6%, in Kyrgyzstan - by 2.1%, in Ukraine - by 7.7%.

*data as of April 1, 2016
**data as of March 1, 2016
Source: CIS Statistical Committee

The comparison of Belarus with other countries of the post-Soviet space in terms of the amount of benefits paid to the unemployed is also quite indicative. If in Azerbaijan the unemployed receive benefits in the amount of $162 per month, in Moldova - $69, in Ukraine - $59, then in Belarus - only $13.

By the way, the budget living wage, which takes into account the minimum set of food products necessary for maintaining health, is set in Belarus at around 1.64 million rubles (equivalent to about $80). Thus, unemployment benefits today are only about 15% of the living wage budget.

Although in many countries unemployment benefits are tied to wages and is one of the most important measures to support the unemployed.

“This is the institution of social protection that should help the unemployed to survive a difficult period. The size of the current allowance, which is about 260 thousand rubles, is a caricature of the institution that should protect people in case of loss of work,”- says a senior researcher at the Center for Socio-Economic Research (CASE Belarus) Vladimir Valetko.

The growth of unemployment in the country is due to the unfavorable situation in the economy. At the same time, the expert notes that, since the unemployment benefit is purely nominal, there is no great motivation for people who have lost their jobs to register as unemployed.

In this regard, Belarusian economists believe that the real scale of unemployment is reflected not by official statistics (as of May 1 - 1.2% of the economically active population), but by data from a sample survey of households, which allow estimating the scale of hidden unemployment. Such household surveys in Belarus have been conducted by the National Statistical Committee since 2012, but their results are classified.

“Of course, data on unemployment collected on the basis of sample surveys of households more accurately reflect the unemployment situation in the country. The only figure from these surveys, which became public in 2012 thanks to the National Bank, testified that our unemployment rate was already 5.3% at that time,”- says Vladimir Valetko.

According to the International Labor Organization, in 2014 unemployment in Belarus was 5.9%. Today, experts say, the unemployment rate has increased even more. Indirect data allow us to observe this trend.

Thus, according to the latest official data, 56,000 workers were fired in March, and only 40,200 people were employed.

“Thus, the number of laid-off workers was filled in March with newly hired workers by only 71%. In January this figure was 83%, in February - 84%. These dynamics show that the employment situation worsened in the first quarter,”- notes Vladimir Valetko.

World experience that Belarus does not use

Experts from Belarusian research organizations state that the population is experiencing serious difficulties in finding employment. At the same time, observers suggest that the situation on the labor market will remain tense, as the state today enterprises, which is highly likely to lead to a decrease in employment in the real sector.

In this regard, according to Belarusian economists, it is necessary to create real mechanisms for social protection of the population, since the current amount of benefits is extremely poor consolation for the unemployed.

“If we talk about the long term, we can talk about the introduction of an unemployment insurance system. Such a system, which has been successfully applied in Chile, assumes that not only the state and the employer, but also the employee participate in the formation of the so-called safety cushion in case of loss places of work», - says the expert of the Belarusian Economic Research and Education Center (BEROC) Maria Akulova.

The mentioned mechanism provides that in case of loss of a job, the unemployed person receives benefits from a state source for the first five months, and then from his own accumulated funds. As Chilean practice has shown, this insurance mechanism increases the level of interest in accelerated employment.

“However, this mechanism can be implemented only in conditions of long-term macroeconomic stability, so in Belarus it can only be considered as potentially possible,”- specifies Maria Akulova.

In the short term, the economist believes, it is necessary to increase the amount of unemployment benefits to support people who are left without work, and at the same time create favorable conditions for stimulating self-employment of the population.

“Instead of subsidizing inefficient state-owned enterprises, the released funds can be used to stimulate self-employment of the population. This experience is quite popular and has been successfully applied in Germany. It involves the payment of a certain subsidy for the creation and development of a business, as well as the provision of tax holidays for a fixed period,”- explained Maria Akulova.

So far, the Belarusian government has not taken any breakthrough decisions in this direction. There are not even specific plans to increase unemployment benefits. In an environment where full unemployment figures are hidden, the state can pretend that there is no need for change.

Unemployment- an economic and social phenomenon characteristic of countries with any level of development. Its essence lies in the presence of a certain percentage of able-bodied people who want to find a job, but for some reason are not able to do it.

Causes of unemployment and its types

There are many reasons for the occurrence of unemployment. The most common among them are:

• shortage of jobs associated with insufficient development of certain economic sectors;
• low wages in the private and/or public sector. It is usually caused by an excess supply of labor in the market and / or the general underdevelopment of the country's economy;
• economic shocks in the country (system-wide crisis, default, prolonged recession, etc.), leading to the bankruptcy of enterprises and job cuts;
• the presence of artificial barriers in the legislation that impede the employment of various groups of citizens (for example, a ban on holding certain positions without a diploma of higher education).

Also, the causes of unemployment can be demographic factors, insufficient informing of the population of working age about the availability of vacancies, etc.

• youth when the unemployed are young people under the age of 31;
• marginal. It is noted among citizens leading an asocial lifestyle;
• registered. In this case, only those citizens who are registered with the labor exchange are considered unemployed;
• hidden. In contrast to the previous type, it unites people who are not registered as unemployed and refuse the help of labor exchanges;
• unstable. Its level is dynamically changing following changes in the country's economy.

Unemployment rate in Belarus

Belarus has its own norms and rules for registering unemployed citizens. According to the current standards, only those people of working age who are registered with the labor exchange are considered unemployed in our country. They receive unemployment benefits and are entitled to help finding employment.

According to official data from the Ministry of Labor of the Republic of Belarus, at the end of March 2018, the overall unemployment rate in Belarus amounted to only 0.5% of the total economically active population. For comparison: at the end of March 2017 unemployment was 1%

Table of changes in the unemployment rate in Belarus from 2000 to 2019

It is noteworthy that the current unemployment rate in Belarus is one of the lowest in the world! For example, at the beginning of 2018, official unemployment in the United States was 3.9%, in Germany - about 6.5%, in Japan - 3-3.2%. And this despite the fact that these countries are many times superior to Belarus in terms of their economic potential.

What is the real unemployment in Belarus?

Such a low level of unemployment in our country is explained by the specifics of its accounting. Official statistics do not take into account people who do not register with the labor exchange, but prefer to look for work on their own. The main reasons why such citizens refuse the help of exchanges are as follows:

• the meager amount of unemployment benefits - only 26 rubles (about $13) at the beginning of 2018;
• the need to participate in public works for free - cleaning the streets, collecting fruits and vegetables, etc.;
• low level of remuneration for vacancies offered on the exchange.

As a result, many citizens prefer not to register, but to look for work on their own, not relying on state assistance. This leads to an increase in hidden unemployment, which is difficult to identify and account for.

What is the real unemployment in Belarus? Due to the complexity of counting the hidden unemployed, it is impossible to establish it with a high probability. However, some expert economists and sociologists believe that the level of actual unemployment in Belarus can range from 6% to 10% of the economically active population. These are the numbers most often found in research.