In order for the work of the enterprise to always have a positive trend, it is necessary ...
Russian GDP last year amounted to 92 trillion rubles. - an increase of 1.5%, Rosstat reported. The Ministry of Economic Development noted the outpacing growth in consumption and investment. But data on GDP growth turned out to be worse than the government's forecast
Photo: Evgeny Biyatov / RIA Novosti
The gross domestic product (GDP) of Russia grew by 1.5% last year, according to the data published by Rosstat: according to its preliminary estimate, the economy produced 92.1 trillion rubles. for the whole year in current prices. This is even a little more than the day before, President Vladimir Putin (+1.4%).
In the context of economic sectors, Rosstat recorded the largest output growth in the field of culture, sports, leisure and entertainment - 5%. This may be due to investments in preparations for the 2018 FIFA World Cup. The transportation and storage sector grew by 3.7%, the information and telecommunications industry grew by 3.6%, and the wholesale and retail trade (plus vehicle repairs) grew by 3.1%.
The fall was recorded in the areas of construction (-0.2%), healthcare and social services (-0.2%), education (-0.1%).
Investment and stocks rose the most
Another way to look at GDP is final spending in the economy. According to Rosstat, household final consumption increased by 3.4% in 2017. Gross capital formation jumped by 7.6% (after declining by 1.9% in 2016), including investment in fixed assets grew by 3.6%. Such dynamics may be associated with an increase in business inventories (changes in inventories are included in gross capital formation. — RBC), says Natalia Orlova, chief economist at Alfa Bank. The contribution of inventories was significant in the second quarter of last year, she said. “The structure of GDP use shows that the increase in reserves has almost doubled (2.18 trillion to 1.27 trillion rubles),” said Kirill Kononov, senior analyst at the Center for Economic Forecasting of Gazprombank.
General government spending declined by 0.9%, reflecting a reduction in fiscal spending in real terms.
At the same time, the share of consumer spending in the economy decreased to 52.2% compared to 52.8% a year earlier. The share of investment in GDP increased from 21.6% to 21.8%, and replenishment of material working stocks business — from 1.5 to 2.3%.
“After a recession in 2015 and 2016, the economy has returned to growth. Consumer demand added 3.4%, and investment - 3.6%. The current assessment does not yet take into account data on the dynamics of small and medium-sized businesses and other annual reports, which are due later and will be taken into account when publishing subsequent assessments,” Economic Development Minister Maxim Oreshkin commented on the statistics on his Facebook page. The data published by Rosstat turned out to be lower than the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, which in the base scenario spoke of GDP growth by 2.1%.
In continuation of the topic of energy-saving technologies in agricultural production, import substitution and food security, we present excerpts from an article about the successes of 2016. According to the harvest of 2017, it is already clear that it is also a record one. So success is not accidental. The sanctions have only accelerated the implementation of several important state programs, as well as private initiatives. Not all problems have been solved, but there are structural changes.
Sight. RU -
Russia's agriculture has almost reached its ceiling
January 27, 2017, 19:55
Text: Olga Samofalova
In 2016, Russia collected a record harvest, became the world leader in the export of wheat, and in general, the agro-industrial complex showed a fantastic growth of almost 5%.
The head of government urged to do everything possible so that the growth rate of agriculture does not decrease. However, there are a number of circumstances that can prevent the Russian agricultural industry from growing at the same pace.
Last year, 2016, was a very successful year for the agro-industrial complex of Russia. Agricultural production in Russia grew by 4.8%, record harvests were obtained, and the Russian Federation became the world leader in wheat exports. However, will it be possible to surpass these successes in 2017?
The state, for its part, continues to support the industry. In general, 75 billion rubles will be allocated to support agriculture in 2017.
However, experts are sure that one should not expect high growth rates from the agro-industrial complex this year - and it will be good if there is no fall.
“We had a phenomenal growth rate in 2016 - about 5%, as we predicted back in October. However, this year, unless some miracle happens (theoretically, it is, of course, possible), we expect growth rates close to zero. Because a very high bar was reached in 2016, and it will be difficult to overcome it in one year, even in purely natural conditions, ”Dmitry Rylko, general director of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR), tells the VZGLYAD newspaper.
He calls a miracle this year, for example, the beautiful weather, which would allow farmers to add grain and oilseeds. Over the past two years, crop production has shown significant growth due to good weather and, as a result, record harvests. However, this year's yield is likely to be worse - good weather is extremely rare for three years in a row. After very productive years, there is inevitably a decrease in fees due to the weather. “2016 was the warmest year on record. It is unlikely that such weather will happen again in 2017,” says Dmitry Lukashov from IFC Markets.
- The weather in 2017 was successful, the wheat harvest was again a record, vegetables, fruits and grapes were excellent.
A miracle would also be an increase in world prices for agricultural products. At the same time, the main share of the growth in the agro-industrial complex accounted for crop production.
- Competition in the global agricultural sector is fierce. Price miracles are not. Wheat can only be sold through dumping.
However, it will be difficult for the livestock industry to continue its growth this year. And the reason is not only the high base, but the saturation of the market and the decline in domestic demand. Russian animal husbandry is completely dependent on the domestic market. It would seem that the growth driver could be the expansion of meat exports. However, in practice this is almost impossible.
In animal husbandry, the production bar is high, effective demand is not growing yet, while the Russian market looks saturated, Rylko notes. “It’s not that we don’t need to expand into exports, we just don’t have such an opportunity. We are not competitive, our products are expensive. Even in chicken we are uncompetitive. In 2016, we exported 100,000 tons of chicken products. If we export the same amount this year, then it will be good. But even if we export not 100, but 120,000 tons this year, this will not shift the situation as a whole, because these are not the volumes that can give significant growth rates in poultry farming, ”says the general director of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies . Compared to production volumes, export figures are a drop in the ocean.
In the last year, great hopes have been placed on the access of Russian meat to the Chinese market. The Chinese consider imported meat to be of better quality, and Russian meat even more so. However, negotiations with the PRC on lifting restrictions and opening access for Russian meat to the local market have not yet led to a result. As, however, there are no guarantees that, having gained access to China, Russian livestock breeders will be able to win a serious share of the Chinese market.
The way out for Russian animal husbandry is to go into deep processing of meat. Only then will they be able to maintain their current high performance and even increase production volumes.
But vegetable growing is capable of continuing to please with high growth rates this year. The production of greenhouse vegetables over the past four years (from 2013 to 2016) has increased by 52%, open ground - by 20%. At the same time, imports were seriously reduced - by 40% and 20%, respectively, according to the data of the National Union of Producers of Fruits and Vegetables. If the ban on the import of vegetables from Turkey, where most of the tomatoes and cucumbers were imported from, remains for another three years, this will allow Russian production to maintain double-digit growth rates.
- Turkey returned to the Russian market by the end of 2017. The quality of Turkish vegetables is considered low. However, only ground domestic vegetables are relatively reliable in terms of ecological cleanliness. Greenhouse cucumbers are frankly bad in their mass, they quickly disappear. Tomatoes, on the contrary, have a long shelf life and look good, but they have neither taste nor aroma.
In general, Rylko does not see drivers for the growth of the agro-industrial complex this year. At first, the Russian agro-industrial complex began to add on the back of rising world prices for agricultural products and an increase in demand for biofuels and demand for food in Asia and China. Three years ago, new drivers for the Russian agro-industrial complex appeared in the form of a two-fold devaluation of the ruble in the face of falling oil and the food embargo. However, by the end of 2016, these growth drivers were almost fully played out, new ones are needed.
In general, the ruble could help the agro-industrial complex if it returned to 70–75 per dollar/euro.
“But this, firstly, is also from the realm of a miracle, and secondly, in this case, Russian companies will have other problems,” notes Rylko. In addition to macroeconomic instability and inflation, one must understand that the share of imports in agriculture is also large.
“The main problem of Russian farmers is their heavy dependence on such obligatory imported components as seeds, pesticides, veterinary drugs, feed bioadditives, and so on. Farmers sell their products in Russia, and when the ruble weakens, they have financial problems. The strengthening of the ruble, on the contrary, improves performance due to the ability to purchase the necessary imports,” says Dmitry Lukashov. If in crop production the rise in the cost of the import component can still be somehow compensated for by exports, then this is not the case in animal husbandry.
A new growth driver for Russian agriculture could be the growth of the Russian economy and the growth of real wages of Russians, coupled with the recovery of consumer demand. It is the Russians who could support agriculture with their wallets. “As soon as people's incomes start to grow, the demand for meat and other expensive agricultural products will also increase,” says Lukashov.
By the end of 2016, a decline began in the agro-industrial complex (AIC), which will intensify in 2017, market participants are sure. They note that the state, although declaring support for the industry, has been actively curtailing it in recent years. Due to the sharp increase in administrative barriers, the high cost of loans and the decrease in the consumer demand of the population, entrepreneurs are reluctant to invest in the agro-industrial complex. In 2015, according to Petrostat » , the volume of investment in agriculture in the Leningrad region fell by 30% compared to the pre-crisis 2013. In general, the fall in Russia reached 40%. This will affect the performance of the industry: instead of growth in production volumes (in 2015 it amounted to 3.5%, making the agro-industrial complex the leading sector of the Russian economy), market participants predict a fall. Last year was extremely successful for the agro-industrial complex. Farmers collected:
61.8 million tons of wheat (against 59.7 million in 2014),
33.6 million tons of potatoes (15.9% more than the average for the last 5 years, in 2014 it was 31.5 million),
A record harvest of vegetables was harvested - 16.1 million tons (12.3% higher than the average five-year level, in 2014 - 15.5 million),
Livestock and poultry for slaughter in live weight amounted to 13.4 million tons (plus 4.2% compared to 2014).
As a result, in 2015 Russia managed to reduce the cost of purchasing food products abroad by almost half compared to 2014, to $23 billion. However, these successes should not be misleading, warns the former head of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, and now the director of the International Independent Institute for Agrarian Policy Elena Skrynnik. Agriculture is an extremely inertial industry. The increase in production last year is the result of projects that were launched in 2012-2013. In 2014-2015, very few new investment projects were launched: in the Leningrad region, 9.2 billion rubles were invested in the agro-industrial complex in 2013, 7.3 billion in 2014, and 6.4 billion in 2015. Investments in the Russian Federation respectively amounted to: 517 billion, 510 billion and 320 billion rubles. “In the future, this will come back to haunt us,” Andrey Golokhvastov, head of the Agriconsult group of companies, is sure. Now the agro-industrial complex is developing by inertia with a downward trend, says Skrynnik. Investors have run out of potential built up thanks to state support programs in 2009-2012. For example, the lowest credit rates in meat and dairy cattle breeding are 6-10% per annum (including state support), in crop production - 9-13%. “It is impossible to grow in these conditions, since the industry average profitability is several times lower,” Elena Skrynnik sums up.
Entrepreneurs agree with the ex-minister.
The embargo pushed the industry to development, but no fundamental changes have yet happened, admits Eldar Beglov, General Director of the Losevo Group of Companies. Loans are not available, the infrastructure of the villages leaves much to be desired, and the staff has to be trained by ourselves.“We didn’t expect that everything would get better in a couple of years, but judging by what we are seeing, it will drag on for a long time,” says Beglov. “In 2007 we bought the first pig farm, in 2011 we built a new one, and in March 2016 we were going to start building the third one. But we won’t start, because since 2011 the number of administrative barriers has quadrupled,” says Tatyana Sharygina, CEO of Idavang Agro. The authorities demanded that the company conduct archaeological excavations at the construction site for two seasons in case a parking lot is discovered there. ancient man. The Ministry of Agriculture stopped approving subsidized loans. Since July 2, 2015, Idavang has been unable to obtain a loan of 200 million rubles from the Russian Agricultural Bank: the bank sends replies to the company, the manufacturer believes, demanding that all new shortcomings in the documentation be corrected. "Lenenergo" does not agree on the technical conditions for connection to networks. “Everyone seems to be saying: build. But in fact, they do everything in their power to prevent this. As a result, the hands go down. Looking at us, those who were also going to build refuse this idea, ”complains Sharygina. Nikita Melnikov, co-owner of the Sinyavinskaya poultry farm, adds: no one will launch new projects on loans from commercial banks at 25%. The cost of doing business in the agro-industrial complex is growing, he notes: in 2015, feed prices rose by 60%, electricity tariffs - by 31%, and expenses for transport, machinery and equipment increased. At the same time, manufacturers cannot adequately raise prices for products because of the fall in the purchasing power of the population. According to a study by the Levada Center, at the end of 2015, 58% of Russians said they were saving on food, at the end of 2014 there were 37%. Rosstat calculated that retail trade volumes decreased by 10% over the same period.
Investments in agriculture have always paid off for a long time (10 years on average), and due to the fall in real incomes of the population (by 10% in 2015), this has become even more problematic. “Before, the consumer saved on entertainment and clothing, now on food,” says Eldar Beglov. Non-core investors came to the industry, counting on a quick payback thanks to the embargo. But they miscalculated. " Consumption is falling, so it will befall and production. As a result, in 2017 we will not get such an increase in production as in 2015. And if the situation develops in the same way as it has recently, it will lead to the fall of the entire industry,” Nikita Melnikov admits.
The volume of agricultural production in Russia at the end of 2017 increased by 2.4% to almost 5.1 trillion rubles. According to Rosstat, such data were obtained taking into account the refinement of the dynamics of production of certain types of agricultural products by months. Thus, as follows from the materials, the assessment of the dynamics has been adjusted upward for each month of the last year by 0.2-0.3 percentage points compared to the corresponding month of the last year. In December, the growth of the agro-industrial complex amounted to 3.4% in annual terms, and the highest figure during 2017 was recorded in September, when agricultural production, according to updated data, increased by 8.7%.
One of the key factors that influenced the positive dynamics of last year was a record grain harvest, which increased by 11.2% to 134.1 million tons compared to 2016. Including wheat production increased by 17.1% to 85 .8 million tons, barley - by 14.4% to 20.6 million tons. At the same time, the gross harvest of the main industrial crops decreased: sugar beet - by 6.1%, sunflower - by 12.6% and flax fiber - by 6.3%, which is due to a reduction in their yield by 8.5%, 2.6% and 2.1%, as well as a decrease in harvested areas of sunflower (by 10.5%) and fiber flax (by 4.3%) compared to the level of the previous year, is noted in the materials Rosstat. The gross harvest of potatoes decreased by 4.9% due to the reduction in harvested areas, the harvest of vegetables remained at the level of the previous year. The gross harvest of greenhouse vegetables amounted to 952.6 thousand tons, which is 17% higher than in 2016, the Ministry of Agriculture.
In addition to the harvest, a significant contribution to the dynamics of the agro-industrial complex was made by an increase in the production of all livestock products, commented “ Agro-investor» Head of the Center for Economic Forecasting of Gazprombank Daria Snitko. “This is especially true for poultry and pork, which showed an increase of about 5%, as well as eggs,” Snitko said. According to Rosstat, the production of livestock and poultry for slaughter in all farms over the year increased by 4.7% to 14.6 million tons in live weight, the production of eggs added 2.8% to 44.8 billion pieces, milk yield increased by 1.2% up to 31.1 million tons. The number of pigs in the country by the end of December was estimated at 23.3 million animals (5.7% more than the end of 2016), poultry - 556.6 million (0.7% more), Cattle - 18.6 million (0.6% less), sheep and goats - 24.5 million (1.3% less). According to Rosstat, in the structure of livestock, households accounted for 42.5% of the total herd of cattle in the country, 12.9% of pigs, 46.2% of sheep and goats.
Thus, last year the growth rate of the agro-industrial complex exceeded the target set in the state program for the development of agriculture. In accordance with it, in 2017, production should have increased by 1.7%. At the same time, the final value was below the level expected by the Ministry of Agriculture. So, at the end of November, speaking in the Federation Council, the head of the department Alexander Tkachev estimated the growth of the agro-industrial complex at 3.5%, in mid-December this forecast was reduced to "about 3%." In the updated program, transferred from this year to project management, for 2018 a level of 5.9-6.6% is indicated compared to the value of 2015, while only in 2016 the agro-industrial complex grew by 4.8%.
The decline in the growth rate of the agro-industrial complex by half compared to the level of 2016, despite the renewal of the grain harvest record, occurred for two main reasons. One of them is the relatively low prices for all agricultural products in the world, said the director of the analytical center “ SovEcon» Andrey Sizov at the Agroholdings of Russia 2017 conference in December. “We are part of the world market, and the low world price of meat, sugar or grain also affects us,” Sizov noted. These low prices are superimposed on the low exchange rate of the ruble, which has been steadily strengthening since the beginning of 2016.
In 2018, the Center for Economic Forecasting of Gazprombank still expects a decrease in output in agriculture as a whole, notes Daria Snitko. “The main reason is the likely reduction in gross harvest relative to last year's record,” she said. Tkachev, in turn, expects growth of at least 3%. As the minister stated on January 18, this figure will be achieved through the implementation of the import substitution program, the creation of new enterprises and the modernization of old ones.
Sanctions on Russia have not been lifted, oil remains at 45% of 2014 prices, Russians are keenly aware of the crisis, saving on food, and the authorities are already declaring that since November 2016 the economic situation in the country has begun to change, and the country has entered a weak economic growth . The President reported to the people that the sanctions have only benefited us, they have become an incentive for the development of the economy. Economic development data for five months of this year showed that the Kremlin is preparing for the presidential campaign and "raising" the statistics on paper. After all, it is not with the failed sixth anniversary that the incumbent president goes to a new term.
EXIT FROM RECESSION
The latest data from Rosstat showed that the GDP has finally turned positive and the recession has been overcome. However, according to the economists of BCS and FC Uralsib, this was achieved through rising oil prices and the state defense order, while the rest of the economy is either stagnating or declining. According to HSE data, the share of sectors related to the extraction of raw materials in Russian GDP increased from 7.8% in 2013 to 8.2% in 2016. The share of defense industries and public administration rose from 5.5% to 5.8%, thus the overall weight in the economy of the raw materials and military industries reached a maximum since at least 2011.
Construction, for example, for five months in the volume of commissioned space fell by 12.6%. The huge gap between the resource-based and manufacturing economies suggests that the recovery trend is illusory and fragile, due to the economic environment - energy prices. If last year each barrel of Russian oil was sold abroad for $31.99, this year it is already $52.04. As the 2008 crisis showed, such an economic recovery is temporary and leads to protracted crises with a reduction in the time lags of the inter-crisis period.
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
According to official data, the main indicators of economic growth in the country began to grow. In the five months of this year, industrial production grew by 1.7%, although the manufacturing industry only by 0.9%. If we translate these figures to the level of the pre-sanction 2013, then in terms of manufacturing industry, Russia now produces 2.5% less products than 3.5 years ago. And if in 2013 the share of imports in the Russian economy reached 90% for some product groups, then it is logical that with a decrease in manufacturing products, import dependence did not decrease, but only increased. Although Medvedev has already managed to report that "in 2016, the most promising sectors of Russian industry developed, certain results were achieved in the import substitution program."
The country has been dependent on foreign goods, and continues to depend on them, since its production has not increased. Key Growth Drivers entrepreneurial activity- affordable loans and predictable business conditions have not worked for a long time. On a direct line, for example, one of the questions was about high rates - “the actual rate in our particular case was 19 percent per annum - 18.75. With such rates, which was mentioned at the beginning, we will not build a new economy, and, unfortunately, the business does not have such profitability as we would like.” The rules for doing business have also changed many times, each time in the direction of introducing new fees and obstacles. This is the Platon system, which increased the cost of transportation, new requirements for cash registers, bucket nights, trading fees in federal cities, and so on.
The main factor in the growth of industrial indicators is the change in the calculation methodology by Rosstat, which switched from the OKVED system to OKVED-2. As the HSE Development Center noted, there was a sharp jump in industrial production in May at the level of 5.6% yoy against 0.7% growth in January-April, which led to an acceleration in GDP growth in May to 3.1% yoy (against 0.5% in the first quarter and 1.7% in April), was due to statistical problems in the indices of industrial production and wholesale trade. More precisely, the imperfection of the technique itself. But now Rosstat is directly subordinate to the Ministry of Economic Development, so in the future it will serve the department, pleasing it with statistics. The Ministry of Economic Development, shortly after the subordination of Rosstat, has already reported to itself that the pace of economic growth has almost doubled and reached a record for 5 years.
Whatever numbers of near-zero growth Rosstat draws for the Kremlin, it is obvious that a country like Russia with growth rates at the level of statistical error is simply unacceptable, since this is a direct path to a new protracted economic crisis.
INVESTMENTS
As for investments in fixed capital, which, according to data for the first quarter, grew by 2.3%, they were seen mainly by only two sectors of the economy - as usual, the extraction and transportation of raw materials, as well as the financial sector that serves the flows of the "pipe economy". More than 40% of investments in fixed capital accounted for the extraction of minerals and the construction of pipelines for their transportation abroad. In the sector of real production, the investment decline, on the contrary, continues. For example, in the manufacturing industry, the volume of capital investments fell by another 6.7%, although 25% of the capacities are completely outdated and unable to produce products. In metallurgy, capital investments fell by almost 30%, in the production of metal products - by 24.7%, in the motor vehicle sector - by 32.2%. According to the conclusions of Sberbank economists, the growth in investments was due to the “capital factor”, budgetary funds and gas project"The Power of Siberia", that is, in no way speaks of the restoration of the activity of the private sector.
INFLATION
Inflation reached a record low of 4.4%, although we previously wrote that these figures are clearly underestimated, as they violate the established economic law of the ratio of the Central Bank rate and inflation in a certain corridor. Now the rate is not adjusted at the same rate as inflation, which indicates that inflation is deliberately underestimated (Fig. 1).
Rice. 1. Attitude weighted average rate at the end of the year to inflation
In periods when inflation was higher than the rate, the Central Bank focused on economic growth, stimulated by the easing of monetary policy. This was the case in 2007-2008, followed by a crisis caused by changes in the cost of oil. The Central Bank then raised the rate for a year, but in 2010 it was again below inflation. In 2013, the Central Bank decides to focus not on the discount rate, but on the key rate, which was three p.p. below account. Then we again see the effect of the low coefficient.
That is, we can say that at certain historical intervals, the Bank of Russia stimulated the economy by reducing the cost of credit. Based on this, in subsequent years the Bank should have kept this ratio close to 1:1, but instead, a new pattern emerged, which had not been seen before during Putin's term. Namely, suddenly the inflation parameter went down sharply for no objective reasons, and the Bank of Russia slightly adjusted the rate. Last year, the inflation rate was almost two times lower than the rate, this year the picture is the same. And the coefficient itself increased from 0.98 (2015) to 1.96 (2016). According to the initial logic, the Central Bank should have lowered the rate to 5-7%, but did not stop at the level of 9.25%. But he did not do this. What does it say? The fact that the real level of inflation is much higher than we are told by extras and officials. Apparently it is in the range of 8-13%.
CARGO TURNOVER AND FOREIGN TRADE
The growth rates of freight turnover - 7%, railway - 7.4% over the five months of this year, as well as the growth rates of exports and imports, which reached 31.8% and 24%, respectively, became record-breaking. It was the increase in the transportation of products for foreign trade operations that led to an increase in the value of the freight turnover parameter. If we compare the data for 4 months of 2017 with the data for 4 months of 2014, that is, with an almost pre-sanction period, then the volume of exports in 2014 was 1.55 times higher than the current figures, and imports 1.48 times. Even with such high rates of growth in exports and imports this year, we have to admit that we are still far from the pre-crisis level. And no less important point- due to which there was an increase in exports and imports. Exports grew mainly due to mineral resources and metals and products from them (Fig. 2). That is, Russia has not changed its production profile in world trade. Imports increased due to purchases of machinery and equipment, which grew by 27.5%, despite the fact that they occupy 45% in the structure of imports.
Rice. 2. The ratio of exports and imports for January-April 2017 to exports and imports for January-April 2016 (according to the Federal Customs Service)
The Russian economy has fully retained its raw materials profile, and behind the good figures in the field of freight turnover and foreign trade is nothing more than a consolidation of the raw materialization of the economy.
LIVING STANDARD OF RUSSIANS
It is difficult to hide the real state of the economy from the public when the shelves are filled with imported equipment, foreign-made toys and medicines are sold in stores, and only food is still labeled made in Russia. But it is even more difficult to hide the real numbers from the population when it comes to their level of well-being. According to official statistics, real incomes of citizens are lower than the level of the previous year by 1.2%, wage has fallen by almost 5% since 2013. The 0.8% decrease in retail trade turnover and zero growth in services to the population suggests that citizens, having become poorer, have reduced their consumption. And against this background, the president continues to say that salaries in the country are growing, while there have already been stories on the direct line that real salaries are being denounced from those declared. And most of the questions were.
According to the VTsIOM poll, every tenth Russian does not even have enough money for food, and 29% noted that they barely have enough money for clothes. While Rosstat determines the poverty threshold according to the minimum wage, the Russians themselves consider poor those who have enough money only to buy clothes and food, and there are 39% of them in the country, among pensioners - 54%, that is, more than half! Assistance from the state to the poor will come in 2019 as part of special measures to support the poor, but according to Manturov, in the amount of about 10 thousand rubles a year. It is difficult to imagine how this money will help Russian citizens. Is it hardly enough to buy a loaf of bread every day, while, according to the idea of the government, citizens whose incomes do not reach living wage, will be able to buy fresh fish, meat and vegetables produced in Russia. And this is for an additional 27 rubles a day to the family budget!
The fact that, according to VTsIOM, almost half of Russians intend to spend their holidays at home (47%) speaks of the unfavorable situation in terms of income, 44% of them named problems with money as the main reason for not traveling.
However, the authorities have a different point of view on the well-being of citizens. Siluanov said that “since the beginning of the year, the incomes of our citizens have begun to grow,” although even official statistics say otherwise. Over the past 30 months (since October 2014), only once did Rosstat reveal an increase in living standards - in January 2017 after a one-time payment of 5 thousand rubles to pensioners.
According to Rosstat, both real and nominal wages increased over the five months, amounting to 40,640 rubles across the country. However, most citizens receive significantly less: 55% have a salary below 25 thousand, and a third - even below 15 thousand rubles. According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development in Russia, by 2035 the average salary in the country will grow by only 56% and in the most optimistic scenario by 2035 it will not exceed $800, although back in 2012 and 2013 the average salary was above this level ($876 and $910 respectively) !
Is it possible to talk about economic recovery if the crisis was noticed even by wealthy citizens? An Ipsos Comcon survey conducted in April 2017 showed that more than half (58%) of wealthy Russians noticed a change in the economic situation for the worse. Only 30% of respondents expect improvement, 38% expect the situation to worsen, and 32% predict that the economic situation will not change.
DEMOGRAPHY
One of the main achievements, which the President spoke about many times - demographic growth, lasted only three years (Fig. 3). The natural increase, at a level 10 times less than the migration level, still supported the president's weak confidence in the correctness of his chosen course in demographic policy, but already this year, statistics showed that this was a short-term effect against the background of a general population decline. This year, in just four months, the natural decline in the population has already amounted to 92.8 thousand people. The Russian nation has been dying out and continues to decline. And no programs maternity capital cannot stop this process.
Rice. 3. Natural population growth (according to Rosstat)
Macroeconomic parameters and Rosstat data have already ceased to reflect the real picture of the processes taking place in Russian society. When drawing up strategies and plans, the government should proceed not from mythical figures, but from the real problems of citizens, which, as the president's direct line showed, are not few.
An objective picture of what is happening in the country is given not by Rosstat and government reports, but by those citizens who did not get on the air of the direct line, letters to the presidential administration, which does not solve the problems of the people, protests, but not by unconscious youth without ideological views, but by people driven to despair - truckers, taxpayers, farmers, miners and more. It's time to listen to the voice of the majority.
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