Unemployment has made Belarus a leader in the post-Soviet space. Official and real unemployment: what the Belarusian authorities are hiding Real unemployment in Belarus

By 19.1 thousand people and reached the level of 1% of the economically active population of the country. The increase in the number of unemployed is associated with the optimization of labor collectives in industry, construction and agriculture. Taking into account the persistence of negative trends and the possible termination of the activities of entrepreneurs trading in the markets, the number of unemployed in 2016 may increase by 2.5-3 times compared to their number as of January 1, 2016, the experts of "Belarus in focus" came to such conclusions ...

According to Belstat, as of January 1, 2016, the number of registered unemployed in Belarus amounted to 43.3 thousand people, which is 1% of the economically active population of Belarus. As of January 1, 2015, the registered unemployment rate was 0.5%, and the number of unemployed was 24.2 thousand people. In 2015, for the first time in the past few years, the number of unemployed exceeded the number of vacancies in labor and social protection authorities. As of January 1, the number of vacancies was 28.7 thousand offers, a year earlier the number of vacancies was 33.6 thousand.

The main reason for the change in trends in the labor market was the general situation in the economy. In 2015, there was a decline in industry, investment in construction declined, and there was a decline in the consumer market. As a result of optimization of labor collectives in 2015, the number of laid-off workers exceeded the number of those hired by 81.3 thousand people, of which 52.5 thousand people were in industry. In the context of a shortage of jobs, low-paid jobs in social protection, education and health care were filled. The low level of unemployment benefits - about $ 10 a month and the availability of compulsory public works to receive benefits significantly downward the real unemployment rate.

In 2016, the decline in industry will continue, as there are no preconditions for an improvement in the country's economic situation. There are not enough building plots for housing construction, which will lead to further cuts in this area. The decline in purchasing power will lead to a decrease in retail turnover and the closure of a number of unprofitable stores. A significant part of entrepreneurs trading on the markets has suspended their work and will not be able to continue it due to the possible confiscation of goods and penalties for the lack of a certificate of conformity for the products sold.

Due to the lack of vacancies in the labor market, further growth in the number of unemployed is expected. The potential volume of reductions in 2016 may exceed the figures for 2015. Taking into account the new requirements for seniority in order to receive old-age pensions, it will be more difficult for young people to get a job due to the increase in the number of persons of retirement age who will hold jobs until the necessary seniority is accumulated for a pension. These factors can lead to an overall increase in the number of unemployed in 2016 in the range of 60-90 thousand people, which will increase the unemployment rate by 2.5-3 times compared to the data at the beginning of 2016.

Thus, in 2015, the number of unemployed officially registered with labor and social security authorities doubled. Taking into account the persistence of negative trends in the economy and due to the lack of a decision on the further employment of entrepreneurs trading in the markets, the unemployment rate in 2016 may increase by another 2.5-3 times.

Expected it to be worse

The actual unemployment rate for 2016 was published on February 27 in a report by the National Statistics Committee. They are very different from the registered unemployment rate. Information on the actual unemployment rate, which amounted to 5.8% of the economically active population, was obtained by the statistics committee in the course of a regular sample survey of households.

This process is based on the standard labor force survey methodology. The survey covers 7 thousand households quarterly, or 28 thousand households per year.

According to official statistics, 4 million 381.3 thousand people were employed in the Belarusian economy in December 2016, which is 2% less than in December 2015. In January 2017, the number of people employed in the domestic economy decreased by another 14.1 thousand to 4 million 367.2 thousand people, the press service of Belstat reported.

The economically active population is people who work (employed) or do not work, but are actively looking for work (unemployed). According to the methodology of the International Labor Organization, this category includes people aged 15 to 72 years.

The announced level of actual unemployment is in some way a sensation, writes on tut.by the director of the Research Center of the Institute of Privatization and Management (IPM) Alexander Chubrik... The fact is that many expected that in the face of such a prolonged economic downturn, unemployment would be a couple of percentage points higher. But in fact, the unemployment rate in our country is comparable to the Russian one (there at the end of 2016 it was 5.4%), much less than in Ukraine (9.6% in the III quarter of 2016), Latvia (9.8% in the III 2016 quarter), Lithuania (7.5% at the end of 2016), and even slightly less than in Poland (6% at the end of 2016). This, according to the expert, means that business has adapted to the crisis not only (and not so much) through a reduction in employment, but also through a reduction in wages. And also that the Belarusians are really actively looking for work. Similar mechanisms operated in the labor market in Russia.

From the history of actual unemployment

Belarusians learned the level of actual unemployment for the fourth time in modern economic history. This happened for the first time in 1999. That year, the first population census after the collapse of the USSR was held. Then there was three-digit inflation, multiple exchange rates, and a $ 40 wage. Against the backdrop of such economic problems, the unemployment rate of 6.2% of the economically active population (according to the census) could hardly surprise anyone. The officially registered unemployment rate in 1999 was almost three times less - 2.2%.

The registered unemployed in Belarus are those people who received the status of unemployed in the employment promotion service.

The new figures had to wait 10 years - until the next census. 2009 was not a perfect year either. The first currency crisis since 2000. Deep drop in exports and domestic demand. Severe deterioration in the terms of trade in petroleum products. In such conditions, the unemployment rate was 6.1% against the background of 0.86% officially registered.

The National Bank published the figure of actual unemployment for the third time. It was in 2012. The Household Employment Survey had just begun, the economy was growing only on the basis of “solvents” and was slowly recovering from the deepest currency crisis of 2011. The National Bank published the May result of a new survey by Belstat - 5.6% of the economically active population. The officially registered unemployed at that time were a very rare species: they accounted for only 0.65% of the economically active population.

Actual unemployment. In censuses and household employment surveys, Belstat uses the internationally accepted definition of the International Labor Organization. According to this definition, an unemployed person is one who (a) calls himself unemployed, (b) is actively looking for a job, and (c) is ready to start work as soon as possible (in the next 2 weeks). Since not all such people are registered in Belarus, the number of actual unemployed in our country is traditionally higher than the number of registered unemployed.

On the flaws in the "design" of social protection of the unemployed

There have always been more actual unemployed in Belarus than registered ones, due to the too small amount of unemployment benefits, which can be received for no more than 6 months, writes Alexander Chubrik. Moreover, not all registered unemployed receive even this meager money. To receive benefits, you need to participate in community service. In fact, the costs of obtaining the status of a registered unemployed exceed the benefits, so unemployed Belarusians prefer to do without registration.

By the way, in some countries even those who work (in the informal sector) join the labor exchange. There the allowance is higher than ours, but there is no requirement to participate in public works. Therefore, sometimes the registered unemployment exceeds the actual one, which, by the way, also speaks of shortcomings in the “design” of social protection for the unemployed.

Unemployment in Belarus has reached historic lows. At the beginning of October, there were 15 thousand officially unemployed in the country, according to the Ministry of Labor. This is 45.1% of the percentage of unemployed less than a year earlier. The registered unemployment rate at the beginning of this month in Belarus was 0.3%. At the same time, the actual level of unemployment is noticeably higher than the official one: the number of unemployed, classified in accordance with the criteria of the International Labor Organization, in the first quarter of this year, 260.6 thousand people.

The picture is for illustrative purposes only. Photo: Evgeny Erchak, TUT.BY

The registered unemployment rate in the Brest and Vitebsk regions was 0.5%, in the Gomel, Grodno and Mogilev regions - 0.4%, in the Minsk region - 0.3%, and in Minsk - 0.1%.

Recall that in the country as a whole, the level of registered unemployment at the beginning of September this year is 0.4%, the same figure was at the beginning and - also 0.4%, and at the beginning of June, May, April, March - 0.5%.

There has never been such a low number of officially unemployed as at the beginning of October in Belarus. So, at the beginning of September this year, 16.3 thousand people were registered as unemployed, in August - 16.6 thousand, in July - almost 17.8 thousand, in June - 19.8 thousand, in May - 21.8 thousand, in April - 22.9 thousand, March - 23.9 thousand.

At the end of 2017, there were 22.9 thousand officially unemployed in Belarus, 35.3 thousand in 2016, 43.3 thousand in 2015, 24.2 thousand in 2014, 20.9 thousand in 2013, 2012 - 24.9 thousand, 2013 - 28.2 thousand, 2012 - 33.1 thousand, 2009 - 40.3 thousand, 2008 - 37.3 thousand, 2007 - 44.1 thousand, 2006 - 52 thousand, 2005 - 67.9 thousand, 2004 - 83 thousand, 2003 - 136.1 thousand, 2002 - 130.5 thousand, 2001 - 102.9 thousand, 2000 - 95.8 thousand.

At the same time, the number of vacancies in Belarus has grown at a record. So, on October 1 of this year, employers announced information about 79.2 thousand vacant jobs. This is 42.8% more than in the same period last year.

“The demand for workers in blue-collar occupations amounted to 65.4 percent of the total number of vacancies against 60.3% as of October 1, 2017,” the Ministry of Labor said. - The coefficient of tension in the labor market of the republic as of October 1 of this year amounted to 0.2 unemployed per vacancy (as of October 1, 2017 - 0.5). "

At the same time, in the Brest and Vitebsk regions, this figure was 0.3 unemployed per vacancy, Gomel, Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev regions - 0.2, and in Minsk - 0.1 unemployed per vacancy.

Recall last March Alexander Lukashenko to employ all the unemployed in the country by May 1. It was not possible to carry out this assignment, but the number of unemployed in the country, according to official statistics, has decreased. So, as of May 1 last year, there were 39.8 thousand officially unemployed in Belarus. In April, their number decreased by 3.6 thousand people. Prior to this, the number of unemployed Belarusians for three months.

In 2017, in Belarus, the number of unemployed classified in accordance with the ILO criteria, in 2017 was 293.4 thousand people. This is 2.8% less than in 2016.

By the rate of growth of unemployment, Belarus became the leader in the CIS. Over the past year, the number of officially registered unemployed in the country has grown by 37.1%. But in terms of the amount of benefits paid to the unemployed, Belarus remains an outsider.

Rising unemployment amid cartoons

According to the CIS Statistical Committee as of April 1, in Belarus over the past 12 months, the growth rate of the number of unemployed turned out to be the highest in comparison with other post-Soviet states.

So, if in Belarus the number of unemployed increased by 37.1%, then in Kazakhstan - by 23%, in Moldova - by 22.8%, in Armenia - by 11.5%, in Azerbaijan - by 11%, in Russia - by 6%. In Tajikistan (as of March 1), the number of unemployed decreased by 0.6%, in Kyrgyzstan - by 2.1%, in Ukraine - by 7.7%.

* data as of April 1, 2016
** data as of March 1, 2016
Source: CIS Statistical Committee

Comparison of Belarus with other post-Soviet countries in terms of the amount of benefits paid to the unemployed is also quite indicative. If in Azerbaijan the unemployed receive an allowance of $ 162 per month, in Moldova - $ 69, in Ukraine - $ 59, then in Belarus - only $ 13.

By the way, the living wage budget, which takes into account the minimum set of foodstuffs necessary to maintain health, is set in Belarus at around 1.64 million rubles (equivalent to about $ 80). Thus, unemployment benefits today are only about 15% of the living wage budget.

Although in many countries the unemployment benefit is tied to the size of wages and is one of the most important measures to support the unemployed.

“This is the institution of social protection that should help the unemployed survive a difficult period. The amount of the current allowance, which is about 260 thousand rubles, is a caricature of the institution that should protect people in case of losing their jobs, ” - says a senior researcher at the Center for Social and Economic Research (CASE Belarus) Vladimir Valetko.

The rise in unemployment in the country is due to the unfavorable situation in the economy. At the same time, the expert notes that since the unemployment benefit is purely nominal, there is no great motivation for people who have lost their jobs to register as unemployed.

In this regard, Belarusian economists believe that the real scale of unemployment is reflected not by official statistics (as of May 1 - 1.2% of the economically active population), but by the data of a sample survey of households, which make it possible to assess the scale of hidden unemployment. Such household surveys in Belarus have been conducted by the National Statistical Committee since 2012, but their results are classified.

“Of course, the data on unemployment, collected on the basis of sample household surveys, more accurately reflect the unemployment situation in the country. The only figure from these surveys, which became public in 2012 thanks to the National Bank, indicated that the level of unemployment in our country was already 5.3%, ” - Vladimir Valetko recalls.

According to the International Labor Organization, in 2014, unemployment in Belarus was 5.9%. Today, experts say, the unemployment rate has increased even more. Indirect data allow us to observe this trend.

Thus, according to the latest official data, 56 thousand workers were laid off in March, and only 40.2 thousand people were employed.

“Thus, the number of laid-off workers was filled in March with newly hired workers only by 71%. In January this figure was 83%, in February - 84%. From these dynamics it is clear that the employment situation in the first quarter was aggravated, " - notes Vladimir Valetko.

World experience that Belarus does not use

Experts from Belarusian research organizations state that the population is experiencing serious difficulties in finding a job. At the same time, observers assume that the situation on the labor market will remain tense, since the state is now enterprises, which is likely to lead to a decrease in employment in the real sector.

In this regard, Belarusian economists believe, it is necessary to create real mechanisms of social protection of the population, since the current amount of benefits is an extremely weak consolation for the unemployed.

“If we talk about the long term, we can talk about the introduction of an unemployment insurance system. Such a system, which has been successfully applied in Chile, assumes that not only the state and the employer, but also the employee participate in the formation of the so-called safety cushion in case of loss of employment, ” - says the expert of the Belarusian Economic Research and Education Center (BEROC) Maria Akulova.

The above-mentioned mechanism provides that in case of loss of work for the first five months the unemployed receives benefits from the state source, and then from their own accumulated funds. As Chilean practice has shown, this insurance mechanism increases the level of interest in accelerated employment.

“However, this mechanism can be introduced only in conditions of long-term macroeconomic stability, therefore in Belarus it can be considered only as potentially possible,” - specifies Maria Akulova.

In the short term, the economist believes, it is necessary to increase the amount of unemployment benefits to support people who have been left without work, and at the same time create favorable conditions for stimulating self-employment of the population.

“Instead of subsidizing ineffective state-owned enterprises, the released funds can be used to stimulate self-employment of the population. This experience is quite popular and has been successfully applied in Germany. It involves the payment of a certain subsidy for the creation and development of a business, as well as the provision of tax holidays for a fixed period ", - explained Maria Akulova.

So far, the Belarusian government has not made any breakthrough decisions in this direction. There are not even specific plans to raise unemployment benefits. In an environment where full data on unemployment are hidden, the state can pretend that there is no need for change.

Unemployment - an economic and social phenomenon characteristic of countries with any level of development. Its essence lies in the presence of a certain percentage of able-bodied people who want to find a job, but for some reason are not able to do so.

Causes of unemployment and its types

There are many reasons for the emergence of unemployment. The most common among them are:

• shortage of jobs associated with insufficient development of certain economic sectors;
• low wages in the private and / or public spheres. Usually it is caused by an excess supply of labor in the market and / or the general underdevelopment of the country's economy;
• economic shocks in the country (system-wide crisis, default, prolonged recession, etc.), leading to bankruptcy of enterprises and job cuts;
• the presence of artificial barriers in legislation that prevent the employment of various groups of citizens (for example, the prohibition to hold certain positions without a higher education diploma).

Also, the reasons for unemployment can be demographic factors, insufficient information of the working age population about the availability of vacancies, etc.

• youthwhen young people under the age of 31 are unemployed;
• marginal... It is noted among citizens leading an asocial lifestyle;
• registered... In this case, only those citizens who are registered at the labor exchange are considered unemployed;
• hidden... In contrast to the previous type, it unites people who do not register as unemployed and refuse to help labor exchanges;
• unstable... Its level is dynamically changing following changes in the country's economy.

Unemployment rate in Belarus

Belarus has its own rules and regulations for registering unemployed citizens. According to current standards, only those people of working age who have registered with the labor exchange are considered unemployed in our country. They receive unemployment benefits and are eligible for assistance in finding a job.

According to official data from the Ministry of Labor of the Republic of Belarus, at the end of March 2018, the total unemployment rate in Belarus was only 0.5% of the total number of economically active population. For comparison: at the end of March 2017 unemployment was 1%

Table of changes in the unemployment rate in Belarus from 2000 to 2019

It is noteworthy that the current unemployment rate in Belarus is one of the lowest in the world! For example, at the beginning of 2018, the official unemployment rate in the US was 3.9%, in Germany - about 6.5%, in Japan - 3-3.2%. And this despite the fact that in terms of their economic potential these countries are many times superior to Belarus.

What is the real unemployment rate in Belarus?

Such a low level of unemployment in our country is explained by the specifics of its accounting. Official statistics do not take into account people who do not register at the labor exchange, but prefer to look for work on their own. The main reasons why such citizens refuse to help the exchanges are as follows:

• the meager amount of unemployment benefits - only 26 rubles (about 13 US dollars) at the beginning of 2018;
• the need to participate free of charge in public works - for cleaning streets, collecting fruits and vegetables, etc.;
• low wages for vacancies offered at the exchange.

As a result, many citizens prefer not to register, but to look for work on their own, not relying on government assistance. This leads to an increase in hidden unemployment, which is difficult to identify and measure.

What is the real unemployment rate in Belarus? Due to the complexity of calculating the hidden unemployed, it is impossible to establish it with high probability. However, some economic experts and sociologists believe that the level of actual unemployment in Belarus can range from 6% to 10% of the economically active population. It is these figures that appear most often in research.