Demographic situation in Russia. The birth rate in Russia has fallen to its lowest level in ten years. In which region is natural population growth

The population dynamics of regions depends on two factors: natural increase and population migration. It is clear that showing exactly how much population has arrived or declined according to these parameters in each region over a long period is a difficult task, because Rosstat has been publishing such data only since 2008. Therefore, we will limit ourselves to just a few points.

Firstly, the article shows the change in regional population from 1990 to 2015. The change in population by region in the period 1970-1990 is also shown for reference.

Then the change in the population of the regions as a whole and by components in 2015 was noted: natural and migration growth, coefficients by components per 1000 people. population.

The material also shows for reference the natural increase in the regions of the RSFSR (including Crimea) in 1990.

Sources:

Russian statistical yearbook of different years of publication;

Rosstat Bulletin “Number and migration of the population of the Russian Federation.”

Data on the population of Crimea and Sevastopol for 1970 and 1990 were borrowed from Wikipedia (with links to Ukrainian statistical resources).

Pictures and tables are clickable.

The color symbols in Table 1 and Figures 1 and 2 reflect the change in population for the specified period by:

Table 1 - Changes in the population of Russian regions in 1970-2016, thousand people. (including Crimea).

Figure 1 – Change in the population of Russian regions (RSFSR, including Crimea) in 1970-1990, %

From 1970 to 1990, the population of most regions of the RSFSR, including Crimea, grew steadily. The population of Western Siberia, the regions of the Far North, the Far East, Crimea, the Caucasian Republics, Moscow and Leningrad increased most noticeably. The population of the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug has grown 4 times, the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug - more than 5 times.

A slight decline in population was observed from 1970 to 1990. in 13 regions of the European part of the country. The largest decrease was recorded in the Tambov region - by 13%.

In the next period (1990-2016), the picture changes dramatically.

Figure 2 – Change in the population of Russian regions (including Crimea) in 1990-2016, %

Population decline is observed in 60 regions. The most severely (3 times) depopulated were the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug and the Magadan Region. The population of Kamchatka, the Sakhalin and Murmansk regions, and the Komi Republic has decreased by a third.

The population increased in only 24 regions (out of 84). Most of all - in Dagestan, Moscow and Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug.

Table 2 – Change in population in the regions in 2015 by components, thousand people. (including international migration).

Regions are ranked by overall population change.

Table 3 - Coefficients of population change in regions by component in 2015, per 1000 people. (including international migration).

Figure 3 – Overall population growth (population decline) in 2015 by region, thousand people.

Figure 4 – Overall population growth (population decline) in 2015 by region, per 1000 people. population.

Leaders of absolute population growth among regions in 2015: Moscow, Moscow region and Krasnodar Territory. Each of these regions increased its population by more than 50 thousand people. And in all these regions, the growth is mainly due (more than 80%) to migration flows.

Per 1,000 people, the largest population growth was recorded in Sevastopol (almost entirely due to visitors). The list of “outsiders” includes: Jewish Autonomous, Magadan and Tambov regions, Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug.

Now a few words and images regarding natural growth in the regions.

Figure 5 – Natural increase (population loss) in 2015 by region, per 1000 population.

Figure 6 – Natural increase (population decline) in 1990 by region, per 1000 population.

There has been a significant deterioration in natural increase rates since 1990. The increase is observed only in five regions: Chechnya, Krasnodar Territory, Moscow, Moscow Region and St. Petersburg. In 1990, natural growth was recorded in 62 regions (out of 84 presented in the tables), in 2015 – in 41.

Both in 1990 and in 2015, the leaders of natural growth are the national republics: Chechnya, Ingushetia, Dagestan and Tyva. In 1990, the list of leaders in natural growth among regions (more than 12 per 1000 people) also included Yakutia, Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug and Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug. But by 2015, the increase in these regions fell below 12 per 1,000 people.

Migration growth in the regions

Figure 7 – Migration growth (population loss) in 2015 by region, people.

Figure 8 – Migration growth (population loss) in 2015 by region, per 1000 population.

The largest share of migrants per 1,000 population was received in 2015 by: Sevastopol, Tyumen region (excluding districts) and Moscow region.

There is a very large migration of population from the regions of the Far East and almost all regions of the Far North. Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug and Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, which were previously attractive for migrants, now have negative migration growth. Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug is generally the first among regions in terms of negative migration growth per 1000 population.

According to the demographic forecast of Rosstat, natural population decline will increase and from 2025 will exceed 400 thousand people annually; a slowdown in population decline is predicted only closer to the 2030s. International migration (according to the forecast, the influx of migrants will be less than 300 thousand people per year) in the future will not be able to compensate for the population decline.

In December 2017, the head of the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection, Maxim Topilin, said that the birth rate in Russia is insufficient to ensure population growth, and in the coming years the situation will only worsen, as the number of women of childbearing age in the country will decrease by a quarter or even more.

“The number of women of reproductive age will decrease by 28% by 2032 or 2035.” Unfortunately, it is not possible to assume that in this situation the absolute number of births will remain at the level of 1.8-1.9 million,” said Topilin.

The birth rate in the Russian Federation in 2017 was the lowest in the last 10 years

(Video: RBC TV channel)

Ramilya Khasanova, a researcher at the Institute of Social Analysis and Forecasting at RANEPA, explained to RBC that the birth rate will decline in the next 15 years due to the fact that most current mothers were born in the 1990s, when the birth rate was low.

“The number of women - potential mothers is small, and therefore the number of births is also falling,” the expert explained.

Earlier, the head of the Ministry of Economic Development, Maxim Oreshkin, classified the demographic situation in Russia as one of the following. The minister noted that a sharp reduction in the size of the working-age population will be led by the fact that Russians born at the very end of the 1990s, when the maximum decline in the birth rate was recorded in its composition, are beginning to be taken into account.

“The generation is very small, so the negative dynamics in terms of the working-age population will continue. The situation from a demographic point of view is one of the most difficult in the world: we will lose approximately 800 thousand people of working age every year due to the demographic structure,” Oreshkin said.

In response to the challenge of low birth rates, the president talks about “rebooting” the country’s demographic policy. From January 1, two new monthly benefits appeared in Russia. At the birth of the first child and until he reaches one and a half years old, families are provided with a monthly payment equal to the regional subsistence minimum per child (on average in 2018 it is 10.5 thousand rubles). From maternity capital funds (the program has been extended until the end of 2021), families can receive monthly payments upon the birth of a second child. Both payments are provided to families whose average per capita income does not exceed 1.5 times the regional subsistence level. In addition, for families with a second and third child, a special program for subsidizing mortgage rates (the state will cover the cost of servicing a mortgage in excess of 6% per annum).

Khasanova assessed the measures taken by the state as positive. “Maternity capital influenced a slight increase in the number of third and second births. It will increase the opportunity for young families to rise out of poverty. The benefit adopted for the first child will most likely not be such an effective way to increase the number of births, but it will affect the birth calendar: those who were planning to give birth in the next few years will hurry up,” she said.

The Russian labor market is losing its attractiveness for migrants; without them, it will not be possible to make up for the decline in the country’s working-age population, experts from the Center for Strategic Research (CSR) warn in the report “Migration Policy: Diagnosis, Challenges, Proposals,” published on January 26. The total decline in the working-age population by 2030 will range from 11 million to 13 million people, experts say. There are no reserves for the growth of internal migration and to attract foreign labor, according to experts, new migration policy measures are needed - work visas, lottery systems similar to the American Green Card, as well as contracts for the integration of migrants.

In 2015, population growth in Russia amounted to 33 thousand 700 people

In our country in January-December 2015, 1 million 944 thousand 100 babies were born. 1 million 911 400 people died. The population growth amounted to 32 thousand 700 people.

Compared to 2014, the birth rate in 2015 decreased by 3,200 people, and the death rate by 2,200. Thus, in 2014, 1 million 947 thousand 300 babies were born, 1 million 913 thousand 600 people died.

The number of registered marriages (1 million 161 thousand) in 2015 was almost 2 times higher than the number of divorces (611 thousand 600). In 2014, people got married and divorced more often than in 2015 - the number of marriages amounted to 1 million 226 thousand, the number of divorces - 693 thousand 700.

General results of the vital statistics of the Russian Federation in 2015

For the fourth year now, Russians have been overturning demographers' forecasts.

After all, after 2011, our country was predicted to have a new failure, another crossbar of the “Russian cross”.

Since 2011, there are fewer and fewer potential mothers in Russia, because girls born during the demographic hole of the nineties are reaching adulthood, and the much more populous generations of the early seventies are dropping out of the process.

However, neither the economic crisis nor the reduction in the number of young women led to a decrease in the Russian birth rate. The statistical results of 2015 indicate that natural population growth continues in the Russian Federation.

In the table it looks like this:

Natural population growth of the Russian Federation (thousands of people)

If we compare with forecasts, everything is happening exactly the opposite.

Calculations based on the number of maternal generations suggested that from 2010 to 2015, the number of little Russians born should have decreased by 150-200 thousand, and the natural decline should have reached 400 thousand people per year.

But in fact, the birth rate is increasing and for the third year in a row it has steadily, although not by much, exceeded the death rate.

An increase in the birth rate against the background of a decrease in the number of mothers means only one thing: family size is growing in Russia. There are more and more parents with two and three children, and fewer with one child.

Indeed, the total fertility rate (TFR), which shows the average number of descendants a woman will leave if the frequency of births in the country remains at the current level, changed in the 21st century as follows:

The level achieved today is still lower than that which ensures simple replacement of generations, but higher than the level of any country in continental Europe, except France.

True, in France, the increase in the birth rate in recent years has been achieved mainly by migrants. In Russia, on the contrary, the positive trend of the last decade is entirely due to Russians.

The birth rate of the peoples of the North Caucasus and southern Siberia, previously characterized by large families, is now declining, gradually approaching the Russian average level. Using the figures obtained in 2015 as an example, it looks like this:

In a group of ten national regions with traditionally high birth rates (Dagestan, Chechnya, Ingushetia, Ossetia, Kabardino-Balkaria, Karachay-Cherkessia, Kalmykia, Bashkiria, Yakutia, Tuva), 8,499 fewer people were born last year than in 2014.

In the group of sixty subjects of the Federation without national status, where the absolute majority of the population is Russian, 7,525 more people were born.

The trend seems even more contrasting if we consider that the number of potential mothers in Russian regions is decreasing due to the failure of the nineties, and in most national republics, where such a deep failure was not observed in the nineties, the maternal cohort continues to grow. That is, in the Caucasus there are more women of parental age and fewer babies, but in central Russia the opposite is true.

This suggests that the difference in family size between Russians and some national minorities, which developed in the second half of the twentieth century, is now shrinking even faster than can be judged by the absolute figures given above.

Finally, here are the ten regions where the birth rate grew at the highest rates in 2015:

1. Sevastopol + 12.1%
2. Kaluga region + 7.8%
3. Nenets Autonomous Okrug + 6.3%
4. St. Petersburg + 5.2%
5. Moscow region + 5.2%
6. Tula region + 4.0%
7. Moscow + 3.5%
8. Bryansk region + 3.0%
9. Vladimir region + 3.0%
10. Nizhny Novgorod region + 2.5%

It is symbolic that this rating is crowned by the hero city of Sevastopol, which has returned to its homeland. No less significant is that among the leaders of the demographic revival, the regions of central and northwestern Russia predominate, which recently experienced the most severe crisis.

“Men are becoming feminine”: why the birth rate has fallen in Russia

Demographics: Russia is being let down by the “women’s issue”»

The Federal State Statistics Service of Russia has published a Demographic Forecast until 2035. According to the forecast of Rosstat, it is expected that the population of Russia by 2036 will remain at the 2017 level - 147 million people, plus or minus a few percent. At the same time, the share of the working-age population will remain almost constant - 55−56%. Such data is not enough to ensure that the number of working age see internal changes. After all, if within these 55−56% there is an increase in the number of the young part up to the age of 40, and a decrease in the number of the older part of working age, then a favorable demographic future for Russia lies ahead. And something completely different awaits us , if, on the contrary, the young part decreases.

By developing the Rosstat forecast (by what method - more on this below), it is possible to determine the dynamics of the number of young people until 2040.

There is no particular point in separating men and women on the graphs, since the declines and rises in the dynamics of the future number of 20-year-olds, 30-year-olds and 40-year-olds are almost double. And the number of men and women aged 20 to 40 differs only by a few percent.

What does this diagram help you realize?

First. The number of 20-year-olds will increase until 2035, but only slightly.

Second. The number of 30-year-olds will begin to decline in the coming years. Moreover, in the first half of the 2020s the reduction will be very strong - about 10% annually.

Third. The number of 40-year-olds will increase until the second half of the 2020s. But this increase will be insignificant. And in the 2030s the reduction will begin, at approximately the same rate as the reduction of 30-year-olds in 2020.

So the total number of young people of working age will decrease in the period 2018–2040.

Finally

In recent years, official publications have been full of cheerful statements about the emerging long-term favorable trend in the demography of the Russian people.

In Russia, the Russian people make up about 80% of the total population. So the results of the spectral analysis of the Rosstat forecast can be extended to the Russian people.

Whether you like it or not, there is no basis for cheerful statements about the emerging long-term favorable trend in the demography of the Russian people.

Demography. The future of the country [Our country]

Why is Russia dying out? (Romanov Roman)

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The Russian space itself is so large and diverse, and the population, infrastructure and production are seemingly “spread” across it so unevenly that the demographic differences must be extremely striking. However, the demographic “gaps” between regions with the best and worst indicators of economic and social life are still less pronounced than might be expected.

The gradual implementation and completion of the demographic transition in Russia (a situation when the birth rate and mortality rate decreases and simple reproduction begins) softens regional differences in population reproduction. They were maximum in the 1960-1970s, when some territories had already switched to a one-two child family model (Central Russia, North-West), while others - as a rule, less urbanized, traditionally agricultural, still existed with four-child families. families of five children (republics of the North Caucasus, southern Siberia).

Now the highest birth rates are typical for Altai and Tyva, a number of North Caucasian republics (Ingushetia, Dagestan, Kalmykia, Chechnya), autonomous districts of Siberia (Ust-Orda and Aginsky Buryat, Taimyr, Evenki) and the Far East (Chukotka, Koryak).

Only in 9 Russian regions with a total population of 1,520 thousand people (1.06% of the country’s population) the TFR exceeds two children per woman, but nowhere does it reach three. Of the North Caucasus republics, such indicators are recorded by statistical authorities only in Chechnya (2,965). Even in regions with once high birth rates - Dagestan and Kalmykia - TFRs over 2,000 are now observed only in rural areas. Urban women in these republics demonstrate almost the Russian average birth rate.

As a result, the most urbanized regions of the Center and North-West of the country, with a high share of the Russian population, have minimal birth rates. TFR in the range of 1,129 - 1,200 children is observed in the Leningrad, Kaliningrad, Tula, Smolensk regions, Moscow and St. Petersburg.

The total fertility rate, as an indicator, is extremely dependent on the age structure of the population.

The increase in the number of births is facilitated by a favorable age structure of the population, that is, the more potential young parents, the more children will be born, and vice versa, if the proportion of older people prevails and grows in the age structure of the population, then birth rates will decrease.

The age structure of the Russian population is aging; this process has been going on for almost a hundred years and is accompanied by a decrease in the proportion of children and an increase in the proportion of older people. Particularly noticeable changes have occurred in recent decades: the share of people of retirement age (men 60 years and older, women 55 years and older) increased from 11.7% in 1959 to 20.4% in 2002 and 22.2% in 2010, and the share of children under 16 years of age decreased over the same periods from 30.0% to 18.0% and 16.2%.

Particularly noticeable changes have occurred in recent decades: the share of people of retirement age (men 60 years and older, women 55 years and older) increased from 11.7% in 1959 to 20.4% in 2002 and 22.2% in 2010, and the share of children under 16 years of age decreased over the same periods from 30.0% to 18.0% and 16.2%.

The population of regions with an earlier onset of the demographic transition and with long-term migration outflow has aged especially strongly. The maximum proportion of people of retirement age (25-28% in 2010) is in the regions of the Center, the Pskov and Novgorod regions of the North-West and in St. Petersburg, as well as in the Nizhny Novgorod and Penza regions of the Volga Federal District adjacent to the Center. The population of Moscow and the Moscow region also continues to age, but a strong influx of younger migrants has softened this trend, so the proportion of the elderly population is slightly higher than the national average (23.7%). The proportion of the population over working age has increased in the “Russian” regions of the South (Rostov, Volgograd regions, Krasnodar Territory - 24%), as well as in the Leningrad, Kirov, Ulyanovsk, Saratov and Kurgan regions (24-25%).

This figure is minimal in the northern autonomous okrugs, where retirees leave. At the beginning of the reforms, inflation “ate up” the savings of northerners, and the outflow of pensioners decreased, which, along with the general trend of aging, led to a noticeable increase in the share of the population over working age in these regions (in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug - from 2 to 8%, in Khanty -Mansiysk and Chukotka - from 3 to 11% for 1990-2010). In republics with an incomplete demographic transition, the age structure of the population is still young, the proportion of elderly is low (Chechnya, Ingushetia, Tyva, Dagestan - 8.0-10.7%). Accordingly, the share of children has the opposite geography: it is minimal in the most aged regions and in two federal cities (12-14%), and the maximum share is in the republics with an incomplete demographic transition (Tuva, Ingushetia and Chechnya - 31-34%).

Indicators that do not depend on the age and sex structure of the population are migration and natural increase (decrease). In the 2000s. the contribution of migration has decreased compared to the peak period of migration influx (mid-1990s), when migration covered the natural population decline in almost all regions south of Moscow. In 2000-2006 less than half (43%) of the regions had a migration increase in population, while only in Moscow and the Moscow region it was significant, compensating for the natural decline. In the Leningrad region, migrations compensated for 2/3 of the natural decline, but in St. Petersburg their contribution was less noticeable. In half of Russia's regions (42 out of 83), natural decline was supplemented by migration outflow. Most of these regions are located in the European part of the country; migration outflow there was small, unlike the Far Eastern regions. Only in some republics of the North Caucasus, in the Altai Republic, as well as in two autonomous districts of the Tyumen region and the Nenets Autonomous Okrug, there was positive natural growth in 2001-2006. supplemented by migration. At the same time, in the republics of the North Caucasus (Chechnya, Ingushetia, Dagestan), positive migration growth was ensured by the return of refugees after the Chechen war. In the late 2000s, the situation looked better compared to the beginning and middle of the decade. In 2007-2010 half of the regions had a migration increase compared to 43% in 2000-2006. In 7 regions it covered the reduced natural population decline (Moscow, Moscow region, St. Petersburg, Belgorod, Kaliningrad region and Novosibirsk region, Krasnodar Territory and the Republic of Tatarstan ), mainly developed regions with large agglomerations, the traditionally attractive south and the west neighboring the European Union. The group of regions with positive values ​​of both natural and migration growth has changed: the south of the Tyumen region, Tomsk, Astrakhan regions, and the Republic of Bashkortostan were added to the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug. In 2011, they were joined by Moscow, which for the first time in many years had not only migration, but also natural population growth.

Almost all the republics of the North Caucasus, except for Adygea and Ingushetia (data for Ingushetia are extremely inaccurate), became a zone of migration outflow, and in North Ossetia and Karachay-Cherkessia the migration outflow exceeded the natural population growth. Migration outflow from the regions of the Far East continued to decline; in the Khabarovsk Territory it stopped, and in Yakutia it was completely compensated by increased natural growth.

In connection with the analysis of these fertility indicators, I identified three groups of regions:

I Demographically depressed regions of Russia - they are characterized by low mortality, deliberately limited birth rates, focus on small families, and there is also a high intensity of migration processes, in such regions the natural population decline is 5% or more?: Pskov region, Kirov region, rep. Mordovia, Tula region, Tambov region,

II Demographically active regions of Russia are distinguished by a low mortality rate, a high deliberately unrestricted birth rate, a tradition of large families, and a low intensity of migration processes from villages to cities and outside the republic.

III Regions with a transitional type of reproduction - reproduction of this type is characterized by low mortality, combined with a rapid rate of decline in the birth rate, and increasing migration mobility of the population. Another feature is the transition from large to medium-sized and one-child families, that is, these are regions with a rejuvenated age structure, in which there is potential for natural population growth, the rate of natural decline here is 0 - 5%?.