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Federal Agency for Education of the Russian Federation
GOU VPO "Ryazan State University named after S.A. Yesenin"
Faculty of Natural Geography
Department of Economic and Social Geography and Tourism
Test in the discipline: Regional Studies
On the topic: “Population of Africa: population explosion and its consequences. Level and pace of urbanization"
Performed:
2nd year student,
By specialty:
Social and cultural service and tourism
Width B.
Supervisor:
Mishnina E.I.
Ryazan, 2010
Introduction………………………………………………………………………………...3
1. Population of Africa: population explosion and its consequences…………….5
2. Level and pace of urbanization in Africa………………………………………………………12
Conclusion……………………………………………………………………………….17
List of references……………………………………………………………...18
Introduction
Africa is the ancestral home of man. The most ancient remains of human ancestors and tools of his work were found in rocks that are about 3 million years old in Tanzania, Kenya and Ethiopia. The modern population of Africa belongs to three main races: Caucasoid, Equatorial and Mongoloid. The main part of the mainland's inhabitants is the indigenous, i.e., primordial, permanent population. Representatives of the Caucasian race live mainly in northern Africa. These are the Arab peoples (Algerians, Moroccans, Egyptians, etc.) who speak Arabic, as well as the Berbers who speak the Berber language. They are characterized by dark skin, dark hair and eyes, an elongated skull, a narrow nose and an oval face.
Most of the continent south of the Sahara is inhabited by Negroids, who make up the African branch of the equatorial race. Among Negroids there are significant differences in skin color, height, facial features, and head shape. The highest peoples of Africa live in the savannas of the northern part of the continent (Tutsis, Nilotes, Masai, etc.). Their average height is 180-200 cm. They are surprisingly slender and graceful. In the area of the upper Nile, Negroids are distinguished by very dark, almost black skin color.
The peoples of the equatorial forest zone - pygmies - are short in stature (below 150 cm). Their skin color is less dark than that of many other Negroids, their lips are thin, their noses are wide, and they are stocky. Pygmies are forest dwellers. The forest for them is a home and a source of everything necessary for existence. This is one of the smallest peoples in Africa, whose numbers are steadily declining.
Bushmen and Hottentots live in the semi-deserts and deserts of South Africa. They are characterized by a yellowish-brown skin color and a wide, flat face, which gives them a resemblance to the Mongoloids. Bushmen, like pygmies, are short in stature, but thin-boned.
Some experts consider Ethiopians to be an intermediate race. They are distinguished by lighter skin color, but with a reddish tint. In appearance, Ethiopians are closer to the southern branch of the Caucasian race. The Malagasy (residents of Madagascar) are descended from a mixture of representatives of the Mongoloid and Negroid races.
The newcomer population of European origin lives mainly in places with better climatic conditions and makes up a small part of the mainland's population. In the north of the continent along the Mediterranean coast live the French, and in the very south of the continent are Afrikaners (descendants of immigrants from the Netherlands), the British, and others.
Many African countries have an ancient culture (Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Benin, Sudan). Crafts, trade, and construction flourished in them. The peoples of Africa, having gone through a long path of development, have made a significant contribution to the history of world culture. Wonderful art monuments have been preserved: Egyptian pyramids - a miracle of ancient construction technology, ivory and wood carvings, bronze sculptures. Some scientists believe that humanity owes its first successes in the development of culture mainly to Africa. After the liberation of most countries from colonial enslavement, African culture is experiencing a new upsurge in its development.
Africa's population exceeds 780 million people. Africa has a relatively sparse population, which is extremely unevenly distributed across the continent. The distribution of the population is influenced not only by natural conditions, but also by historical reasons, primarily the consequences of the slave trade and colonial rule.
The purpose of this work is a detailed examination of the population explosion in Africa and its consequences, as well as the level and pace of urbanization, which will also allow us to draw significant conclusions on the characteristics of population distribution in Africa.
1. African population: population explosion and its consequences
Throughout the history of human civilization in Africa, the so-called traditional type of population reproduction has dominated, characterized by high levels of fertility and mortality and, accordingly, a low rate of natural increase. Demographers believe that at the turn of our era there were 16–17 million people living in Africa (according to other sources, 30–40 million), and in 1600 – 55 million people. Over the next 300 years (1600–1900), the continent's population rose to 110 million, or doubled, the slowest growth of any major region in the world. As a result, Africa's share of the world population has decreased markedly. This slow type of growth was explained primarily by the slave trade, the losses from which amounted to tens of millions of people, hard forced labor on the plantations of the European colonies, hunger and disease. Only in the first half of the 20th century. Africa's population began to grow faster, and by 1950 it reached 220 million people.
But the real demographic revolution occurred in Africa in the second half of the 20th century. In 1960, its population was 275 million, in 1970 - 356 million, in 1980 - 475 million, in 1990 - 648 million, in 2000 - 784 million, and in 2007 - 965 million Human. This means that in 1950–2007. it increased almost 4.4 times! No other region in the world knows such growth rates. It is no coincidence that Africa's share of the world population is growing rapidly. In 2007, it was already 14.6%, which exceeds the total share of foreign Europe and the CIS or North and Latin America. And although in the second half of the 1990s. The demographic explosion in Africa has clearly passed its peak; the average annual population growth rate (2.1%) here is still almost twice the world level.
This demographic situation in Africa is explained by the fact that its population continues to be in the second phase of the demographic transition, which is characterized by the persistence of high and very high birth rates with a rather sharp decrease in mortality. Hence, there are still high rates of natural growth, ensuring not just expanded reproduction, but a very rapid increase in population. By mid-2000, Africa came up with the following “formula” for population reproduction: 36% -15% = 21%. Next, we will consider each of its components.
Fertility rate in Africa 1985–1990 was almost 45%, in 1990–1995. – 42%, in 1995–2000. – 40%, and in 2000–2005. – 36%. It exceeds the world average of the last five years (20b) by 1.5 times. Tropical Africa contains most of the countries in the world with fertility rates that often approach the physiological maximum. As an example, we can cite countries in which in 2005 the birth rate reached 50% or even exceeded this level: Niger, Eritrea, DR Congo, Liberia. But in most other countries it was in the range from 40 to 50%.
Accordingly, the fertility level of women in Africa remains the highest in the world: the average number of children born to one woman there is still 4.8, and in Uganda, Mali, Niger, Chad, DR Congo, Burundi, Somalia reaches six to seven and more.
The high birth rate in African countries is due to a number of factors. Among them are the centuries-old traditions of early marriage and large families, associated primarily with extreme socio-economic backwardness. The desire of parents to have as many children as possible was a completely natural reaction to the very high infant mortality rate and at the same time a means of providing their own patriarchal household with a large number of workers. Religious views and the fairly widespread prevalence of polygamous marriages also had a strong impact. We must also take into account the general increase in the level of health care achieved in recent decades, which includes the protection of maternal and child health and the reduction of female infertility, one of the consequences of many diseases.
Indicators mortality rate in the second half of the 20th century, on the contrary, they decreased very significantly. On average for Africa in 2005, this coefficient was 15%, including 7% in Northern Africa, and 14–19% in Tropical Africa. Although the mortality rate is still noticeably higher than the world average (9%), it was its decline – while the birth rate remained high – that served, one might say, as the main “detonator” of the demographic explosion on the continent.
As a result, even with fairly high mortality rates, Africa has record rates for the entire world. natural increase population: on average it is 21% (or 21 people per 1000 inhabitants), which corresponds to an average annual increase of 2.1%. If we differentiate this indicator by subregion, it turns out that in Northern Africa it is 1.6%, in Western Africa - 2.4%, in Eastern Africa - 2.5%, in Central Africa - 2.2% and in Southern Africa - 0.3% .
Figure 1 can serve as a basis for continuing this analysis at the level of individual countries. When examining it, it is easy to notice that now in Africa more than half of the countries already have an average annual population growth rate of 1 to 2%. But in 13 countries it is still 2–3%, and in 12 countries it is 3–4%. Most of these countries are in Western Africa, but they are also found in Eastern and Central Africa. In addition, countries have recently appeared in Africa in which population decline, rather than growth, has occurred. This is due to the AIDS epidemic.
This differentiation is explained mainly by differences in the general level of socio-economic development, including the level of education, health care and other components of a comprehensive concept of the quality of the population. As for demographic policy, it does not yet have a great impact on the processes of population reproduction. Almost all African countries have declared their commitment to such policies, many have adopted national family planning programs, are implementing measures aimed at improving the status of women, expanding access to contraceptives, regulating the intervals between births, etc. However, funding for these programs is insufficient. In addition, they run counter to religious and everyday traditions and encounter resistance from a significant part of the population. Demographic policies have proven to be more effective in several more developed countries. As a result of the implementation of government programs aimed at reducing the rate of population growth, such a decrease in the 1960s. began in Tunisia, Egypt, Morocco, Kenya, Ghana, and later in Algeria, Zimbabwe, on the island. Mauritius.
The demographic explosion in Africa is significantly deepening many of the already intractable economic and social problems of the countries of the continent.
Firstly, this the problem of increasing “pressure” of a rapidly growing population on the environment. Back in 1985, there was 0.4 hectares of land per rural resident, and at the beginning of the 21st century. this figure dropped to 0.3 hectares. At the same time, the threat of further desertification and deforestation, and an increase in the general environmental crisis, is increasing. It can be added that in terms of freshwater resources per capita (about 5000 m3 in 2000), Africa is inferior to most other large regions of the world. At the same time, water resources in the region are distributed in such a way that their greatest quantity does not coincide with the most densely populated areas, and as a result, in many places, especially in large cities, there is a water shortage.
Secondly, this the problem of increasing “demographic burden”, i.e. the ratio of the number of children (and elderly people) to the number of people of working age. It is known that the main feature of the age structure of the African population has always been a very large proportion of people of childhood age, and recently, as a result of a slight reduction in infant and child mortality, it has even begun to increase. Thus, in 2000, the age group under 15 years old accounted for 43% of the entire population of the continent. In some countries of Tropical Africa, in particular in Uganda, Niger, Mali, the number of children is actually almost equal to the number of “workers”. In addition, due to the very large proportion of people of child age, the share of the economically active population in Africa is much smaller (38–39%) than in any other major region of the world.
Thirdly, this employment problem. In the context of a demographic explosion, the number of economically active population reached 300 million people in 2000. African countries are not able to employ such a number of people in social production. According to the International Labor Organization, on average in Africa, unemployment affects 35-40% of working people.
Fourthly, this food supply problem rapidly growing population. The current food situation in Africa is assessed by most experts as critical. Although 2/3 of the continent’s population is employed in agriculture, it is here, especially in Tropical Africa, that the food crisis has become most protracted and even fairly stable “hunger zones” have formed. In many countries, food production per capita not only does not increase, but even decreases, so that it becomes increasingly difficult for the peasant to provide his family with his own food throughout the year. Food imports are increasing. Far from being the only, but still one of the most important reasons for this situation is that the average annual increase in Africa's population significantly outpaces the average annual increase in food production.
Fifthly, this public health problem associated with both environmental degradation and poverty of the majority of people. (In Africa, there are 11 countries where more than half of the total population lives below the poverty line. Including in Zambia, Sierra Leone, Madagascar this share exceeds 70%, and in Mali, Chad, Niger, Ghana, Rwanda - 60%. ) Both contribute to the spread of dangerous diseases such as malaria, cholera, leprosy, and sleeping sickness. Africa has already surpassed all other continents in terms of the number of AIDS cases. It has the highest rate of spread of HIV infection and the highest proportion of HIV-infected and AIDS patients (8.4% of the adult population). In 2006, more than 25 million people living with HIV and AIDS lived in sub-Saharan Africa, representing 70% of the global total. That same year, AIDS killed 2.3 million Africans, reducing life expectancy in many countries. It can be added that the top ten countries in terms of the number of AIDS cases include Zimbabwe, Botswana, Zambia, Malawi, Namibia, Swaziland and Congo, where there are an average of 350 to 450 cases of the disease per 100 thousand inhabitants. The second ten are also dominated by African countries.
Rice. 1. Average annual population growth in African countries, p. 303.
Sixthly, this education problem. In 2000, only 60% of African adults were literate. In sub-Saharan Africa, the total number of illiterate people over 15 years of age even increased from 125 million people in 1980 to 145 million in 2000. Even in 2006, more than 1/2 of men were illiterate in 5 African countries, in 7 – more than 2/3 women. With the average share of people of childhood age being, as already noted, 43%, it is not so easy to provide school education for the younger generation.
Until relatively recently, demographic forecasts assumed that by 2025 the population of Africa would increase to 1,650 million people. According to newer forecasts, it will be about 1,300 million people (including in North Africa - 250 million, in Western - 383 million, in Eastern - 426 million, in Central - 185 million and in South - 56 million people). This means that Africa will continue to face many of the socio-economic challenges created by the population explosion. Suffice it to say that, according to some estimates, in 2025 the continent’s labor force will reach almost 1 billion people, amounting to 1/5 of the world’s total labor force. In 1985, the number of young people joining the workforce was 36 million, in 2000 – 57 million, and in 2025 it will reach almost 100 million!
Recently, new information has appeared in the press about African population forecasts for 2050. Compared to previous ones, they reflect an upward trend and are based on the fact that in the middle of the 21st century. The continent's population will reach almost 2 billion people (21% of the world's population). Moreover, in countries such as Togo, Senegal, Uganda, Mali, Somalia, in the first half of the 21st century. the population should increase by 3.5–4 times, and in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Angola, Benin, Cameroon, Liberia, Eritrea, Mauritania, Sierra Leone, Madagascar - by 3 times. Accordingly, by 2050, the population of Nigeria is expected to reach 258 million people, DR Congo - 177, Ethiopia - 170, Uganda - 127, Egypt - 126 million. Sudan, Niger, Kenya and Tanzania will have between 50 and 100 million inhabitants.
2. Level and pace of urbanization in Africa
For many centuries, even millennia, Africa remained predominantly a “rural continent”. True, cities appeared in North Africa a very long time ago. Suffice it to recall Carthage, the major urban centers of the Roman Empire. But in sub-Saharan Africa, cities began to emerge already in the era of the Great Geographical Discoveries, mainly as military strongholds and trade (including slave trading) bases. During the colonial division of Africa at the turn of the 19th and 20th centuries. new urban settlements arose mainly as local administrative centers. Nevertheless, the term “urbanization” itself in relation to Africa until the end of modern times can apparently only be applied conditionally. After all, back in 1900 there was only one city on the entire continent with a population of more than 100 thousand inhabitants.
In the first half of the 20th century. the situation has changed, but not so dramatically. Back in 1920, the urban population of Africa numbered only 7 million people, in 1940 it was already 20 million, and only by 1950 it increased to 51 million people.
But in the second half of the 20th century, especially after such an important milestone as the Year of Africa, a real “urban explosion” began on the continent. This is illustrated primarily by data on urban population growth rates. Back in the 1960s. in many countries they have reached phenomenally high rates of 10–15, or even 20–25% per year! In 1970–1985 The urban population increased on average by 5–7% per year, which meant doubling it in 10–15 years. Yes, even in the 1980s. these rates remained at approximately 5% and only in the 1990s. began to decline. As a result, the number of urban residents and the number of cities began to rapidly increase in Africa. The share of the urban population reached 22% in 1970, 29% in 1980, 32% in 1990, 36% in 2000 and 38% in 2005. Accordingly, Africa's share of the world's urban population increased from 4.5% in 1950 to 11.2% in 2005.
As throughout the developing world, Africa's urban explosion is characterized by the predominant growth of large cities. Their number increased from 80 in 1960 to 170 in 1980 and subsequently more than doubled. The number of cities with a population of 500 thousand to 1 million inhabitants has also increased significantly.
But this distinctive feature of the African “urban explosion” can be especially clearly demonstrated by the example of the growth in the number of millionaire cities. The first such city back in the late 1920s. became Cairo. In 1950, there were only two millionaire cities, but already in 1980 there were 8, in 1990 - 27, and the number of inhabitants in them increased respectively from 3.5 million to 16 and 60 million people. According to the UN, in the late 1990s. in Africa there were already 33 agglomerations with a population of more than 1 million people, which concentrated 1/3 of the total urban population, and in 2001 there were already 40 million-dollar agglomerations. Two of these agglomerations (Lagos and Cairo) with a population of more than 10 million people already included in the category of supercities. In 14 agglomerations, the number of residents ranged from 2 million to 5 million people, in the rest - from 1 million to 2 million people (Fig. 2). However, in the next five years, some capitals, for example, Monrovia and Freetown, dropped out of the list of millionaire cities. This is due to the unstable political situation and military operations in Liberia and Sierra Leone.
When considering the process of “urban explosion” in Africa, one must take into account the fact that the industrial and cultural development of countries, the deepening of the processes of ethnic consolidation and other positive phenomena are associated with cities. However, along with this, the urban environment is accompanied by many negative phenomena. This is because Africa is not just urbanizing breadth(but not deep down as in developed countries), but the so-called false urbanization, characteristic of those countries and regions where there is virtually no or almost no economic growth. According to the World Bank, in the 1970s–1990s. Africa's urban population grew by an average of 4.7% per year, while their GDP per capita decreased by 0.7% annually. As a result, most African cities have failed to become engines of economic growth and structural transformation in the economy. On the contrary, in many cases they began to act as the main centers of the socio-economic crisis, becoming the focus of acute social contradictions and contrasts, such as unemployment, housing crisis, crime, etc. The situation is only aggravated by the fact that cities, especially large ones, continue to attract the poorest rural residents, who are constantly joining the stratum of the marginal population. Statistics show that the top ten cities in the world with the lowest quality of life include nine African cities: Brazzaville, Pont-Noire, Khartoum, Bangui, Luanda, Ouagadougou, Kinshasa, Bamako and Niamey.
The “urban explosion” in Africa is characterized by the exaggeratedly large role of capital cities in both population and economy. The following figures indicate the degree of such hypertrophy: in Guinea the capital concentrates 81% of the country’s total urban population, in Congo - 67, in Angola - 61, in Chad - 55, in Burkina Faso - 52, in several other countries - from 40 to 50 %. The following indicators are also impressive: by the early 1990s. in the production of industrial products, the capitals accounted for: in Senegal (Dakar) - 80%, in Sudan (Khartoum) - 75, in Angola (Luanda) - 70, in Tunisia (Tunisia) - 65, in Ethiopia (Addis Ababa) - 60%.
Despite many of the commonalities of Africa's urban explosion, there are also significant regional differences, particularly between North, Tropical and Southern Africa.
IN North Africa A very high level of urbanization (51%) has already been achieved, exceeding the world average, and in Libya it reaches 85%. In Egypt, the number of urban residents already exceeds 32 million, and in Algeria - 22 million. Since North Africa has been an arena of urban life for a very long time, urban growth here has not been as explosive as in other subregions of the continent. If we keep in mind the material appearance of cities, then in North Africa the long-established type of Arab city prevails with its traditional medina, kasbah, covered bazaars, which in the 19th–20th centuries. were supplemented by blocks of European buildings.
Rice. 2. Millionaire metropolitan areas in Africa, p. 305.
IN South Africa the level of urbanization is 56%, and the decisive influence on this indicator, as you might guess, is exerted by the most economically developed and urbanized Republic of South Africa, where the number of urban residents exceeds 25 million people. Several millionaire agglomerations have also formed in this subregion, the largest of which is Johannesburg (5 million). The material appearance of South African cities reflects both African and European features, and the social contrasts in them - even after the elimination of the apartheid system in South Africa - remain very noticeable.
IN Tropical Africa the level of urbanization is lower than in North Africa: in West Africa it is 42%, in East Africa – 22%, in Central Africa – 40%. The average figures for individual countries are approximately the same. It is symptomatic that in continental Tropical Africa (without islands) there are only six countries where the share of the urban population exceeds 50%: Gabon, Congo, Liberia, Botswana, Cameroon and Angola. But here are the least urbanized countries such as Rwanda (19%), Burundi (10%), Uganda (13), Burkina Faso (18), Malawi and Niger (17% each). There are also countries in which the capital concentrates 100% of the total urban population: Bujumbura in Burundi, Praia in Cape Verde. And in terms of the total number of city residents (more than 65 million), Nigeria ranks uncompetitively first in all of Africa. Many of the cities of Tropical Africa are extremely crowded. The most striking example of this kind is Lagos, which in terms of this indicator (about 70 thousand people per 1 km2) ranks one of the first places in the world. Yu. D. Dmitrevsky once noted that many cities in Tropical Africa are characterized by a division into “native”, “business” and “European” parts.
Demographic projections provide an opportunity to track the progress of Africa's urban explosion to 2010, 2015 and 2025. According to these forecasts, in 2010 the urban population should increase to 470 million people, and its share in the total population - up to 44%. It is estimated that if in 2000–2015. Urban population growth rates will average 3.5% per year, the share of urban residents in Africa will approach 50%, and the continent's share of the world's urban population will increase to 17%. Apparently, in 2015, the number of African agglomerations with millionaires will increase to 70. At the same time, Lagos and Cairo will remain in the group of super-cities, but the number of their residents will increase to 24.6 million and 14.4 million, respectively. Seven cities will have from 5 million to 10 million inhabitants (Kinshasa, Addis Ababa, Algiers, Alexandria, Maputo, Abidjan and Luanda). And in 2025, the urban population of Africa will exceed 800 million people, with its share of the total population being 54%. In Northern and Southern Africa this share will increase to 65 and even 70%, and in the currently least urbanized East Africa it will be 47%. By the same time, the number of millionaire agglomerations in Tropical Africa may increase to 110.
Conclusion
In conclusion, I would like to draw the following conclusions:
The share of the population of African countries tends to steadily increase;
In contrast to mortality, in Africa, with regard to fertility, traditional demographic behavior continues, aimed at maintaining its indicators at a high and even very high level;
Among Africa there are dozens of very small in population, and often just dwarf states, the demographic policy in which (if it is carried out) is aimed primarily not at reducing, but at increasing natural population growth;
In most countries of tropical Africa, mortality has been rising in recent years due to the ongoing AIDS epidemic.
At the same time, it is necessary to take into account that the relative growth rate of the Earth's population reached its peak in the 60s. last century; and since the late 80s. The absolute growth rate of the world population also began to decline. Currently, population growth rates are declining in almost all countries of the world; and we can say that we live in the era of the end of the demographic explosion. At the same time, the threat of relative overpopulation levels reaching catastrophic levels still persists in relation to individual countries, where the rate of demographic growth is still extremely high, and it is slowing down at an insufficient pace (primarily we are talking about the countries of Tropical Africa, such as Niger, DRC, Angola, etc.).
List of used literature
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Introduction 3
1. Theoretical issues of the demographic situation in the world 5
1.1 Demographic problems in the world 5
1.2. Possible ways to solve the demographic problem 11
2. Demographic situation in Asian countries 17
2.1. General characteristics of Asian countries 17
2.2. Population policy in China 17
2.3. Demographic situation in India 30
2.4. Demographic situation in some Asian countries 37
3. Demographic situation in African countries 46
3.1. General characteristics of African countries 46
3.2. Demographic situation in Africa: population explosion and its consequences 47
Conclusion 55
References 58
APPLICATIONS 61
In the modern era, rapid population growth has an increasing impact both on the life of individual states and on international relations in general.
In the modern world, there are a huge number of problems related to environmental pollution, food shortages, the spread of viral diseases and a number of other problems, but, in my opinion, the demographic problem occupies a special place among them. It determines the development of almost all global problems of humanity.
Due to the avalanche-like growth of the population on the planet, humanity is facing more and more new problems. The earth is several billion years old; humans have inhabited the earth for only a few tens of thousands of years. Just recently the world celebrated the birth of its 7 billionth child, and by 2015 there will be about 8 billion people living on the planet. They will all need water, food, air, energy and a place in the sun. The planet's resources are not unlimited.
To provide people with everything they need, plants and factories are built, minerals are mined, and forests are cut down. This causes enormous damage to nature, and it is difficult or impossible for humans to correct their mistakes. This could lead to a global environmental disaster. For example, over the past 50 years, more than half of the rain forests on Earth have been destroyed. As a result, hundreds of species of animals and plants disappeared forever. Every second, an area of rain forest the size of a football field is cut down for pastures and arable land, for timber, for oil and ore extraction. And rain forests are called “the lungs of the planet.”
The importance and significance of the demographic problem is recognized by all states. In a finite space, population growth cannot be infinite. Stabilization of the world population is one of the important conditions for the transition to sustainable environmental and economic development.
Considering the demographic situation on the planet, it should be noted that the growth of the Earth's population is not at all uniform along national and geographical lines, for example, in Russia over the past decades there has been a steady decline in population. European countries also cannot boast of a sharp increase in population. The same cannot be said about the countries of Asia and Africa, for example, China is home to almost a quarter of the entire population of the Earth, and despite the implementation of a demographic policy based on the principle of “one family, one child,” China’s population continues to increase.
I chose the topic of my course work - the demographic situation in Asian and African countries - since this topic is the most relevant at the moment.
The purpose of this course work is to study the demographic situation in Asian and African countries.
Based on the purpose of the course work, the following tasks were set:
1. Analyze the general demographic situation in the world
2. Analyze possible ways to solve the demographic problem
3. Analyze the demographic situation and policies in several countries in Africa and Asia
China, the largest country in terms of population, has long been faced with the problem of overpopulation, but unlike most countries in Asia and Africa, China is one of the world's economic leaders. This situation somewhat facilitates the task of regulating the demographic situation in the country. Thus, China managed to achieve certain positive results in population regulation. However, China has failed to significantly reduce the country's population growth. Over the next decade, China will remain the most populous country in the world; in the future, a decline in population can be confidently predicted. In the future, India will take the leading position in terms of population.
India's experience in population policy is very valuable for developing countries experiencing dramatic population growth.
An analysis of India's demographic policy, pursued since the mid-twentieth century, indicates that obtaining significant and sustainable results in this area requires an integrated approach to the problem. The main key to success in implementing demographic policy is changing the demographic attitudes of the population, along with increasing the availability of medical care and contraception. While a one-sided clinical approach, coercive measures lead only to short-term results (unless, of course, they are carried out over a long period of time and on an all-out scale, as was the case in China). An important aspect is the involvement of the female population in production activities and their emancipation. Incentive measures that introduce rewards for having fewer children can also play a positive role. Although rewards, firstly, may not be available in every country, and secondly, they are unlikely to give a noticeable result as a primary, much less the only, measure.
At the same time, I would like to note that a more detailed analysis of the regional level of demographic policy indicates that different factors became key in resolving demographic problems in each state. Such factors were: a favorable socio-economic situation in the region, achievements in the field of women's rights, in education, in health care, as well as established culture and traditions. Consequently, we can conclude that in solving demographic problems there is no universal recipe suitable for all societies. Of course, the combination of achievements in various areas enhances the effect of the policies, but the government should mainly pay attention to those that are most suitable for a particular society and can be implemented at the lowest cost, with the support of the population.
The most important conclusion is that population policy works. It is capable of leading to outstanding results in many spheres of life of society and the state. However, everything depends on how it is implemented.
Africa has the highest population reproduction rate. In a number of countries (Kenya, Uganda, Nigeria) the birth rate exceeds 50 newborns per 1000 inhabitants, which is 4-5 times higher than in Europe. At the same time, Africa has the highest mortality rate and lowest life expectancy in the world. With an average density of 25 people per 1 sq. km, the population is distributed very unevenly across Africa. The most densely populated areas are the sea coasts and coastal areas of South Africa, Zambia, Zaire and Zimbabwe. In these areas, the population density ranges from 50 to 1000 people per 1 sq. km. In the vast expanses of the Sahara, Kalahari, and Namib deserts, the population density barely reaches 1 person per 1 sq. km.
Africa ranks first in the world for illiteracy. In modern Africa there are more than 1000 ethnic groups and more than 700 linguistic indigenous people. Therefore, often the official language is the language of the country whose colony this country was. The three most common official languages are French, English and Arabic; other European languages are Spanish and Portuguese. In a number of countries there are two official languages: European and local, and only in 1/5 of all African countries one of the languages of the local population is official.
Africa is characterized by significant population migration (external and internal). The main centers of attraction for labor from the African continent are Western Europe and Western Asia (especially the Gulf countries). Within the continent, labor migration flows mainly go from the poorest countries to the richer ones (South Africa, Nigeria, Ivory Coast, Libya, Morocco, Egypt, Tanzania, Kenya, Zaire, Zimbabwe).
In the future, it should be noted that it is necessary to continue work on population regulation in the countries of Asia and Africa.
Summing up the work done, it should be noted that all the tasks set at the beginning of the work were solved and, accordingly, the goal of the work was achieved.
96. Population explosion in Africa and its consequences
Throughout the history of human civilization in Africa, the so-called traditional type of population reproduction has dominated, characterized by high levels of fertility and mortality and, accordingly, a low rate of natural increase. Demographers believe that at the turn of our era there were 16–17 million people living in Africa (according to other sources, 30–40 million), and in 1600 – 55 million people. Over the next 300 years (1600–1900), the continent's population rose to 110 million, or doubled, the slowest growth of any major region in the world. As a result, Africa's share of the world population has decreased markedly. This slow type of growth was explained primarily by the slave trade, the losses from which amounted to tens of millions of people, hard forced labor on the plantations of the European colonies, hunger and disease. Only in the first half of the 20th century. Africa's population began to grow faster, and by 1950 it reached 220 million people.
But the real one demographic revolution occurred in Africa already in the second half of the 20th century. In 1960, its population was 275 million, in 1970 - 356 million, in 1980 - 475 million, in 1990 - 648 million, in 2000 - 784 million, and in 2007 - 965 million Human. This means that in 1950–2007. it increased almost 4.4 times! No other region in the world knows such growth rates. It is no coincidence that Africa's share of the world population is growing rapidly. In 2007, it was already 14.6%, which exceeds the total share of foreign Europe and the CIS or North and Latin America. And although in the second half of the 1990s. The demographic explosion in Africa has clearly passed its peak; the average annual population growth rate (2.1%) here is still almost twice the world level.
Such demographic situation in Africa is explained by the fact that its population continues to be in the second phase of the demographic transition, which is characterized by the persistence of high and very high birth rates with a rather sharp decrease in mortality. Hence, there are still high rates of natural growth, ensuring not just expanded reproduction, but a very rapid increase in population. By mid-2000, Africa came up with the following “formula” for population reproduction: 36% -15% = 21%. Next, we will consider each of its components.
Fertility rate in Africa 1985–1990 was almost 45%, in 1990–1995. – 42%, in 1995–2000. – 40%, and in 2000–2005. – 36%. It exceeds the world average of the last five years (20b) by 1.5 times. Tropical Africa contains most of the countries in the world with fertility rates that often approach the physiological maximum. As an example, we can cite countries in which in 2005 the birth rate reached 50% or even exceeded this level: Niger, Eritrea, DR Congo, Liberia. But in most other countries it was in the range from 40 to 50%.
Accordingly, the fertility level of women in Africa remains the highest in the world: the average number of children born to one woman there is still 4.8, and in Uganda, Mali, Niger, Chad, DR Congo, Burundi, Somalia reaches six to seven and more.
The high birth rate in African countries is due to a number of factors. Among them are the centuries-old traditions of early marriage and large families, associated primarily with extreme socio-economic backwardness. The desire of parents to have as many children as possible was a completely natural reaction to the very high infant mortality rate and at the same time a means of providing their own patriarchal household with a large number of workers. Religious views and the fairly widespread prevalence of polygamous marriages also had a strong impact. We must also take into account the general increase in the level of health care achieved in recent decades, which includes the protection of maternal and child health and the reduction of female infertility, one of the consequences of many diseases.
Indicators mortality rate in the second half of the 20th century, on the contrary, they decreased very significantly. On average for Africa in 2005, this coefficient was 15%, including 7% in Northern Africa, and 14–19% in Tropical Africa. Although the mortality rate is still noticeably higher than the world average (9%), it was its decline – while the birth rate remained high – that served, one might say, as the main “detonator” of the demographic explosion on the continent.
As a result, even with fairly high mortality rates, Africa has record rates for the entire world. natural increase population: on average it is 21% (or 21 people per 1000 inhabitants), which corresponds to an average annual increase of 2.1%. If we differentiate this indicator by subregion, it turns out that in Northern Africa it is 1.6%, in Western Africa - 2.4%, in Eastern Africa - 2.5%, in Central Africa - 2.2% and in Southern Africa - 0.3% .
Figure 147 can serve as a basis for continuing this analysis at the level of individual countries. When examining it, it is easy to notice that now in Africa more than half of the countries already have an average annual population growth rate of 1 to 2%. But in 13 countries it is still 2–3%, and in 12 countries it is 3–4%. Most of these countries are in Western Africa, but they are also found in Eastern and Central Africa. In addition, countries have recently appeared in Africa in which population decline, rather than growth, has occurred. This is due to the AIDS epidemic.
This differentiation is explained mainly by differences in the general level of socio-economic development, including the level of education, health care and other components of a comprehensive concept of the quality of the population. As for demographic policy, then it does not yet have a big impact on the processes of population reproduction. Almost all African countries have declared their commitment to such policies, many have adopted national family planning programs, are implementing measures aimed at improving the status of women, expanding access to contraceptives, regulating the intervals between births, etc. However, funding for these programs is insufficient. In addition, they run counter to religious and everyday traditions and encounter resistance from a significant part of the population. Demographic policies have proven to be more effective in several more developed countries. As a result of the implementation of government programs aimed at reducing the rate of population growth, such a decrease in the 1960s. began in Tunisia, Egypt, Morocco, Kenya, Ghana, and later in Algeria, Zimbabwe, on the island. Mauritius.
The population explosion in Africa is significantly deepening many already intractable problems. economic and social problems countries of the continent.
Firstly, this the problem of increasing “pressure” of a rapidly growing population on the environment. Back in 1985, there was 0.4 hectares of land per rural resident, and at the beginning of the 21st century. this figure dropped to 0.3 hectares. At the same time, the threat of further desertification and deforestation, and an increase in the general environmental crisis, is increasing. It can be added that in terms of freshwater resources per capita (about 5000 m 3 in 2000), Africa is inferior to most other large regions of the world. At the same time, water resources in the region are distributed in such a way that their greatest quantity does not coincide with the most densely populated areas, and as a result, in many places, especially in large cities, there is a water shortage.
Secondly, this the problem of increasing “demographic burden”, i.e. the ratio of the number of children (and elderly people) to the number of people of working age. It is known that the main feature of the age structure of the African population has always been a very large proportion of people of childhood age, and recently, as a result of a slight reduction in infant and child mortality, it has even begun to increase. Thus, in 2000, the age group under 15 years old accounted for 43% of the entire population of the continent. In some countries of Tropical Africa, in particular in Uganda, Niger, Mali (Table 47 in Book I), the number of children is actually almost equal to the number of “workers”. In addition, due to the very large proportion of people of child age, the share of the economically active population in Africa is much smaller (38–39%) than in any other major region of the world.
Thirdly, this employment problem. In the context of a demographic explosion, the number of economically active population reached 300 million people in 2000. African countries are not able to employ such a number of people in social production. According to the International Labor Organization, on average in Africa, unemployment affects 35-40% of working people.
Fourthly, this food supply problem rapidly growing population. The current food situation in Africa is assessed by most experts as critical. Although 2/3 of the continent’s population is employed in agriculture, it is here, especially in Tropical Africa, that the food crisis has become most protracted and even fairly stable “hunger zones” have formed. In many countries, food production per capita not only does not increase, but even decreases, so that it becomes increasingly difficult for the peasant to provide his family with his own food throughout the year. Food imports are increasing. Far from being the only, but still one of the most important reasons for this situation is that the average annual increase in Africa's population significantly outpaces the average annual increase in food production.
Fifthly, this public health problem associated with both environmental degradation and poverty of the majority of people. (In Africa, there are 11 countries where more than half of the total population lives below the poverty line. Including in Zambia, Sierra Leone, Madagascar this share exceeds 70%, and in Mali, Chad, Niger, Ghana, Rwanda - 60%. ) Both contribute to the spread of dangerous diseases such as malaria, cholera, leprosy, and sleeping sickness. Africa has already surpassed all other continents in terms of the number of AIDS cases (Fig. 158 in Book I). It has the highest rate of spread of HIV infection and the highest proportion of HIV-infected and AIDS patients (8.4% of the adult population). In 2006, more than 25 million people living with HIV and AIDS lived in sub-Saharan Africa, representing 70% of the global total. That same year, AIDS killed 2.3 million Africans, reducing life expectancy in many countries. It can be added that the top ten countries in terms of the number of AIDS cases include Zimbabwe, Botswana, Zambia, Malawi, Namibia, Swaziland and Congo, where there are an average of 350 to 450 cases of the disease per 100 thousand inhabitants. The second ten are also dominated by African countries.
Rice. 147. Average annual population growth in African countries
Sixthly, this education problem. In 2000, only 60% of African adults were literate. In sub-Saharan Africa, the total number of illiterate people over 15 years of age even increased from 125 million people in 1980 to 145 million in 2000. Even in 2006, more than 1/2 of men were illiterate in 5 African countries, in 7 – more than 2/3 are women. With the average share of people of childhood age being, as already noted, 43%, it is not so easy to provide school education for the younger generation.
Until relatively recently, demographic forecasts assumed that by 2025 the population of Africa will increase to 1650 million people. According to newer forecasts, it will be about 1,300 million people (including in North Africa - 250 million, in Western - 383 million, in Eastern - 426 million, in Central - 185 million and in South - 56 million people). This means that Africa will continue to face many of the socio-economic challenges created by the population explosion. Suffice it to say that, according to some estimates, in 2025 the continent’s labor force will reach almost 1 billion people, amounting to 1/5 of the world’s total labor force. In 1985, the number of young people joining the workforce was 36 million, in 2000 – 57 million, and in 2025 it will reach almost 100 million!
Recently, new information has appeared in the press about African population forecasts for 2050. Compared to previous ones, they reflect an upward trend and are based on the fact that in the middle of the 21st century. The continent's population will reach almost 2 billion people (21% of the world's population). Moreover, in countries such as Togo, Senegal, Uganda, Mali, Somalia, in the first half of the 21st century. the population should increase by 3.5–4 times, and in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Angola, Benin, Cameroon, Liberia, Eritrea, Mauritania, Sierra Leone, Madagascar - by 3 times. Accordingly, by 2050, the population of Nigeria is expected to reach 258 million people, DR Congo - 177, Ethiopia - 170, Uganda - 127, Egypt - 126 million. Sudan, Niger, Kenya and Tanzania will have between 50 and 100 million inhabitants.
Federal Agency for Education of the Russian Federation
GOU VPO "Ryazan State University named after S.A. Yesenin"
Faculty of Natural Geography
Department of Economic and Social Geography and Tourism
Test in the discipline: Regional Studies
On the topic: “Population of Africa: population explosion and its consequences. Level and pace of urbanization"
Performed:
2nd year student,
By specialty:
Social and cultural service and tourism
Width B.
Supervisor:
Mishnina E.I.
Ryazan, 2010
Introduction………………………………………………………………………………...3
1. Population of Africa: population explosion and its consequences…………….5
2. Level and pace of urbanization in Africa………………………………………………………12
Conclusion……………………………………………………………………………….17
List of references……………………………………………………………...18
Introduction
Africa is the ancestral home of man. The most ancient remains of human ancestors and tools of his work were found in rocks that are about 3 million years old in Tanzania, Kenya and Ethiopia. The modern population of Africa belongs to three main races: Caucasoid, Equatorial and Mongoloid. The main part of the mainland's inhabitants is the indigenous, i.e., primordial, permanent population. Representatives of the Caucasian race live mainly in northern Africa. These are the Arab peoples (Algerians, Moroccans, Egyptians, etc.) who speak Arabic, as well as the Berbers who speak the Berber language. They are characterized by dark skin, dark hair and eyes, an elongated skull, a narrow nose and an oval face.
Most of the continent south of the Sahara is inhabited by Negroids, who make up the African branch of the equatorial race. Among Negroids there are significant differences in skin color, height, facial features, and head shape. The highest peoples of Africa live in the savannas of the northern part of the continent (Tutsis, Nilotes, Masai, etc.). Their average height is 180-200 cm. They are surprisingly slender and graceful. In the area of the upper Nile, Negroids are distinguished by very dark, almost black skin color.
The peoples of the equatorial forest zone - pygmies - are short in stature (below 150 cm). Their skin color is less dark than that of many other Negroids, their lips are thin, their noses are wide, and they are stocky. Pygmies are forest dwellers. The forest for them is a home and a source of everything necessary for existence. This is one of the smallest peoples in Africa, whose numbers are steadily declining.
Bushmen and Hottentots live in the semi-deserts and deserts of South Africa. They are characterized by a yellowish-brown skin color and a wide, flat face, which gives them a resemblance to the Mongoloids. Bushmen, like pygmies, are short in stature, but thin-boned.
Some experts consider Ethiopians to be an intermediate race. They are distinguished by lighter skin color, but with a reddish tint. In appearance, Ethiopians are closer to the southern branch of the Caucasian race. The Malagasy (residents of Madagascar) are descended from a mixture of representatives of the Mongoloid and Negroid races.
The newcomer population of European origin lives mainly in places with better climatic conditions and makes up a small part of the mainland's population. In the north of the continent along the Mediterranean coast live the French, and in the very south of the continent are Afrikaners (descendants of immigrants from the Netherlands), the British, and others.
Many African countries have an ancient culture (Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Benin, Sudan). Crafts, trade, and construction flourished in them. The peoples of Africa, having gone through a long path of development, have made a significant contribution to the history of world culture. Wonderful art monuments have been preserved: Egyptian pyramids - a miracle of ancient construction technology, ivory and wood carvings, bronze sculptures. Some scientists believe that humanity owes its first successes in the development of culture mainly to Africa. After the liberation of most countries from colonial enslavement, African culture is experiencing a new upsurge in its development.
Africa's population exceeds 780 million people. Africa has a relatively sparse population, which is extremely unevenly distributed across the continent. The distribution of the population is influenced not only by natural conditions, but also by historical reasons, primarily the consequences of the slave trade and colonial rule.
The purpose of this work is a detailed examination of the population explosion in Africa and its consequences, as well as the level and pace of urbanization, which will also allow us to draw significant conclusions on the characteristics of population distribution in Africa.
1. African population: population explosion and its consequences
Throughout the history of human civilization in Africa, the so-called traditional type of population reproduction has dominated, characterized by high levels of fertility and mortality and, accordingly, a low rate of natural increase. Demographers believe that at the turn of our era there were 16–17 million people living in Africa (according to other sources, 30–40 million), and in 1600 – 55 million people. Over the next 300 years (1600–1900), the continent's population rose to 110 million, or doubled, the slowest growth of any major region in the world. As a result, Africa's share of the world population has decreased markedly. This slow type of growth was explained primarily by the slave trade, the losses from which amounted to tens of millions of people, hard forced labor on the plantations of the European colonies, hunger and disease. Only in the first half of the 20th century. Africa's population began to grow faster, and by 1950 it reached 220 million people.
But the real demographic revolution occurred in Africa in the second half of the 20th century. In 1960, its population was 275 million, in 1970 - 356 million, in 1980 - 475 million, in 1990 - 648 million, in 2000 - 784 million, and in 2007 - 965 million Human. This means that in 1950–2007. it increased almost 4.4 times! No other region in the world knows such growth rates. It is no coincidence that Africa's share of the world population is growing rapidly. In 2007, it was already 14.6%, which exceeds the total share of foreign Europe and the CIS or North and Latin America. And although in the second half of the 1990s. The demographic explosion in Africa has clearly passed its peak; the average annual population growth rate (2.1%) here is still almost twice the world level.
This demographic situation in Africa is explained by the fact that its population continues to be in the second phase of the demographic transition, which is characterized by the persistence of high and very high birth rates with a rather sharp decrease in mortality. Hence, there are still high rates of natural growth, ensuring not just expanded reproduction, but a very rapid increase in population. By mid-2000, Africa came up with the following “formula” for population reproduction: 36% -15% = 21%. Next, we will consider each of its components.
Fertility rate in Africa 1985–1990 was almost 45%, in 1990–1995. – 42%, in 1995–2000. – 40%, and in 2000–2005. – 36%. It exceeds the world average of the last five years (20b) by 1.5 times. Tropical Africa contains most of the countries in the world with fertility rates that often approach the physiological maximum. As an example, we can cite countries in which in 2005 the birth rate reached 50% or even exceeded this level: Niger, Eritrea, DR Congo, Liberia. But in most other countries it was in the range from 40 to 50%.
Accordingly, the fertility level of women in Africa remains the highest in the world: the average number of children born to one woman there is still 4.8, and in Uganda, Mali, Niger, Chad, DR Congo, Burundi, Somalia reaches six to seven and more.
The high birth rate in African countries is due to a number of factors. Among them are the centuries-old traditions of early marriage and large families, associated primarily with extreme socio-economic backwardness. The desire of parents to have as many children as possible was a completely natural reaction to the very high infant mortality rate and at the same time a means of providing their own patriarchal household with a large number of workers. Religious views and the fairly widespread prevalence of polygamous marriages also had a strong impact. We must also take into account the general increase in the level of health care achieved in recent decades, which includes the protection of maternal and child health and the reduction of female infertility, one of the consequences of many diseases.
Indicators mortality rate in the second half of the 20th century, on the contrary, they decreased very significantly. On average for Africa in 2005, this coefficient was 15%, including 7% in Northern Africa, and 14–19% in Tropical Africa. Although the mortality rate is still noticeably higher than the world average (9%), it was its decline – while the birth rate remained high – that served, one might say, as the main “detonator” of the demographic explosion on the continent.
As a result, even with fairly high mortality rates, Africa has record rates for the entire world. natural increase population: on average it is 21% (or 21 people per 1000 inhabitants), which corresponds to an average annual increase of 2.1%. If we differentiate this indicator by subregion, it turns out that in Northern Africa it is 1.6%, in Western Africa - 2.4%, in Eastern Africa - 2.5%, in Central Africa - 2.2% and in Southern Africa - 0.3% .
Figure 1 can serve as a basis for continuing this analysis at the level of individual countries. When examining it, it is easy to notice that now in Africa more than half of the countries already have an average annual population growth rate of 1 to 2%. But in 13 countries it is still 2–3%, and in 12 countries it is 3–4%. Most of these countries are in Western Africa, but they are also found in Eastern and Central Africa. In addition, countries have recently appeared in Africa in which population decline, rather than growth, has occurred. This is due to the AIDS epidemic.
This differentiation is explained mainly by differences in the general level of socio-economic development, including the level of education, health care and other components of a comprehensive concept of the quality of the population. As for demographic policy, it does not yet have a great impact on the processes of population reproduction. Almost all African countries have declared their commitment to such policies, many have adopted national family planning programs, are implementing measures aimed at improving the status of women, expanding access to contraceptives, regulating the intervals between births, etc. However, funding for these programs is insufficient. In addition, they run counter to religious and everyday traditions and encounter resistance from a significant part of the population. Demographic policies have proven to be more effective in several more developed countries. As a result of the implementation of government programs aimed at reducing the rate of population growth, such a decrease in the 1960s. began in Tunisia, Egypt, Morocco, Kenya, Ghana, and later in Algeria, Zimbabwe, on the island. Mauritius.
The demographic explosion in Africa is significantly deepening many of the already intractable economic and social problems of the countries of the continent.
Firstly, this the problem of increasing “pressure” of a rapidly growing population on the environment. Back in 1985, there was 0.4 hectares of land per rural resident, and at the beginning of the 21st century. this figure dropped to 0.3 hectares. At the same time, the threat of further desertification and deforestation, and an increase in the general environmental crisis, is increasing. It can be added that in terms of freshwater resources per capita (about 5000 m 3 in 2000), Africa is inferior to most other large regions of the world. At the same time, water resources in the region are distributed in such a way that their greatest quantity does not coincide with the most densely populated areas, and as a result, in many places, especially in large cities, there is a water shortage.
Secondly, this the problem of increasing “demographic burden”, i.e. the ratio of the number of children (and elderly people) to the number of people of working age. It is known that the main feature of the age structure of the African population has always been a very large proportion of people of childhood age, and recently, as a result of a slight reduction in infant and child mortality, it has even begun to increase. Thus, in 2000, the age group under 15 years old accounted for 43% of the entire population of the continent. In some countries of Tropical Africa, in particular in Uganda, Niger, Mali, the number of children is actually almost equal to the number of “workers”. In addition, due to the very large proportion of people of child age, the share of the economically active population in Africa is much smaller (38–39%) than in any other major region of the world.
Thirdly, this employment problem. In the context of a demographic explosion, the number of economically active population reached 300 million people in 2000. African countries are not able to employ such a number of people in social production. According to the International Labor Organization, on average in Africa, unemployment affects 35-40% of working people.
Fourthly, this food supply problem rapidly growing population. The current food situation in Africa is assessed by most experts as critical. Although 2/3 of the continent’s population is employed in agriculture, it is here, especially in Tropical Africa, that the food crisis has become most protracted and even fairly stable “hunger zones” have formed. In many countries, food production per capita not only does not increase, but even decreases, so that it becomes increasingly difficult for the peasant to provide his family with his own food throughout the year. Food imports are increasing. Far from being the only, but still one of the most important reasons for this situation is that the average annual increase in Africa's population significantly outpaces the average annual increase in food production.
Fifthly, this public health problem associated with both environmental degradation and poverty of the majority of people. (In Africa, there are 11 countries where more than half of the total population lives below the poverty line. Including in Zambia, Sierra Leone, Madagascar this share exceeds 70%, and in Mali, Chad, Niger, Ghana, Rwanda - 60%. ) Both contribute to the spread of dangerous diseases such as malaria, cholera, leprosy, and sleeping sickness. Africa has already surpassed all other continents in terms of the number of AIDS cases. It has the highest rate of spread of HIV infection and the highest proportion of HIV-infected and AIDS patients (8.4% of the adult population). In 2006, more than 25 million people living with HIV and AIDS lived in sub-Saharan Africa, representing 70% of the global total. That same year, AIDS killed 2.3 million Africans, reducing life expectancy in many countries. It can be added that the top ten countries in terms of the number of AIDS cases include Zimbabwe, Botswana, Zambia, Malawi, Namibia, Swaziland and Congo, where there are an average of 350 to 450 cases of the disease per 100 thousand inhabitants. The second ten are also dominated by African countries.
Rice. 1. Average annual population growth in African countries, p. 303.
Sixthly, this education problem. In 2000, only 60% of African adults were literate. In sub-Saharan Africa, the total number of illiterate people over 15 years of age even increased from 125 million people in 1980 to 145 million in 2000. Even in 2006, more than 1/2 of men were illiterate in 5 African countries, in 7 – more than 2/3 are women. With the average share of people of childhood age being, as already noted, 43%, it is not so easy to provide school education for the younger generation.
Until relatively recently, demographic forecasts assumed that by 2025 the population of Africa would increase to 1,650 million people. According to newer forecasts, it will be about 1,300 million people (including in North Africa - 250 million, in Western - 383 million, in Eastern - 426 million, in Central - 185 million and in South - 56 million people). This means that Africa will continue to face many of the socio-economic challenges created by the population explosion. Suffice it to say that, according to some estimates, in 2025 the continent’s labor force will reach almost 1 billion people, accounting for 1/5 of the world’s total labor force. In 1985, the number of young people joining the workforce was 36 million, in 2000 – 57 million, and in 2025 it will reach almost 100 million!
Recently, new information has appeared in the press about African population forecasts for 2050. Compared to previous ones, they reflect an upward trend and are based on the fact that in the middle of the 21st century. The continent's population will reach almost 2 billion people (21% of the world's population). Moreover, in countries such as Togo, Senegal, Uganda, Mali, Somalia, in the first half of the 21st century. the population should increase by 3.5–4 times, and in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Angola, Benin, Cameroon, Liberia, Eritrea, Mauritania, Sierra Leone, Madagascar - by 3 times. Accordingly, by 2050, the population of Nigeria is expected to reach 258 million people, DR Congo - 177, Ethiopia - 170, Uganda - 127, Egypt - 126 million. Sudan, Niger, Kenya and Tanzania will have between 50 and 100 million inhabitants.
2. Level and pace of urbanization in Africa
For many centuries, even millennia, Africa remained predominantly a “rural continent”. True, cities appeared in North Africa a very long time ago. Suffice it to recall Carthage, the major urban centers of the Roman Empire. But in sub-Saharan Africa, cities began to emerge already in the era of the Great Geographical Discoveries, mainly as military strongholds and trade (including slave trading) bases. During the colonial division of Africa at the turn of the 19th and 20th centuries. new urban settlements arose mainly as local administrative centers. Nevertheless, the term “urbanization” itself in relation to Africa until the end of modern times can apparently only be applied conditionally. After all, back in 1900 there was only one city on the entire continent with a population of more than 100 thousand inhabitants.
In the first half of the 20th century. the situation has changed, but not so dramatically. Back in 1920, the urban population of Africa numbered only 7 million people, in 1940 it was already 20 million, and only by 1950 it increased to 51 million people.
But in the second half of the 20th century, especially after such an important milestone as the Year of Africa, a real “urban explosion” began on the continent. This is illustrated primarily by data on urban population growth rates. Back in the 1960s. in many countries they have reached phenomenally high rates of 10–15, or even 20–25% per year! In 1970–1985 The urban population increased on average by 5–7% per year, which meant doubling it in 10–15 years. Yes, even in the 1980s. these rates remained at approximately 5% and only in the 1990s. began to decline. As a result, the number of urban residents and the number of cities began to rapidly increase in Africa. The share of the urban population reached 22% in 1970, 29% in 1980, 32% in 1990, 36% in 2000 and 38% in 2005. Accordingly, Africa's share of the world's urban population increased from 4.5% in 1950 to 11.2% in 2005.
As throughout the developing world, Africa's urban explosion is characterized by the predominant growth of large cities. Their number increased from 80 in 1960 to 170 in 1980 and subsequently more than doubled. The number of cities with a population of 500 thousand to 1 million inhabitants has also increased significantly.
But this distinctive feature of the African “urban explosion” can be especially clearly demonstrated by the example of the growth in the number of millionaire cities. The first such city back in the late 1920s. became Cairo. In 1950, there were only two millionaire cities, but already in 1980 there were 8, in 1990 - 27, and the number of inhabitants in them increased respectively from 3.5 million to 16 and 60 million people. According to the UN, in the late 1990s. in Africa there were already 33 agglomerations with a population of more than 1 million people, which concentrated 1/3 of the total urban population, and in 2001 there were already 40 million-dollar agglomerations. Two of these agglomerations (Lagos and Cairo) with a population of more than 10 million people already included in the category of supercities. In 14 agglomerations, the number of residents ranged from 2 million to 5 million people, in the rest - from 1 million to 2 million people (Fig. 2). However, in the next five years, some capitals, for example, Monrovia and Freetown, dropped out of the list of millionaire cities. This is due to the unstable political situation and military operations in Liberia and Sierra Leone.
When considering the process of “urban explosion” in Africa, one must take into account the fact that the industrial and cultural development of countries, the deepening of the processes of ethnic consolidation and other positive phenomena are associated with cities. However, along with this, the urban environment is accompanied by many negative phenomena. This is because Africa is not just urbanizing breadth(but not deep down as in developed countries), but the so-called false urbanization, characteristic of those countries and regions where there is virtually no or almost no economic growth. According to the World Bank, in the 1970s–1990s. Africa's urban population grew by an average of 4.7% per year, while their GDP per capita decreased by 0.7% annually. As a result, most African cities have failed to become engines of economic growth and structural transformation in the economy. On the contrary, in many cases they began to act as the main centers of the socio-economic crisis, becoming the focus of acute social contradictions and contrasts, such as unemployment, housing crisis, crime, etc. The situation is only aggravated by the fact that cities, especially large ones, continue to attract the poorest rural residents, who are constantly joining the stratum of the marginal population. Statistics show that the top ten cities in the world with the lowest quality of life include nine African cities: Brazzaville, Pont-Noire, Khartoum, Bangui, Luanda, Ouagadougou, Kinshasa, Bamako and Niamey.
The “urban explosion” in Africa is characterized by the exaggeratedly large role of capital cities in both population and economy. The following figures indicate the degree of such hypertrophy: in Guinea the capital concentrates 81% of the country’s total urban population, in Congo - 67, in Angola - 61, in Chad - 55, in Burkina Faso - 52, in several other countries - from 40 to 50 %. The following indicators are also impressive: by the early 1990s. in the production of industrial products, the capitals accounted for: in Senegal (Dakar) - 80%, in Sudan (Khartoum) - 75, in Angola (Luanda) - 70, in Tunisia (Tunisia) - 65, in Ethiopia (Addis Ababa) - 60%.
Despite many of the commonalities of Africa's urban explosion, there are also significant regional differences, particularly between North, Tropical and Southern Africa.
IN North Africa A very high level of urbanization (51%) has already been achieved, exceeding the world average, and in Libya it reaches 85%. In Egypt, the number of urban residents already exceeds 32 million, and in Algeria - 22 million. Since North Africa has been an arena of urban life for a very long time, urban growth here has not been as explosive as in other subregions of the continent. If we keep in mind the material appearance of cities, then in North Africa the long-established type of Arab city prevails with its traditional medina, kasbah, covered bazaars, which in the 19th–20th centuries. were supplemented by blocks of European buildings.
Rice. 2. Millionaire metropolitan areas in Africa, p. 305.
IN South Africa the level of urbanization is 56%, and the decisive influence on this indicator, as you might guess, is exerted by the most economically developed and urbanized Republic of South Africa, where the number of urban residents exceeds 25 million people. Several millionaire agglomerations have also formed in this subregion, the largest of which is Johannesburg (5 million). The material appearance of South African cities reflects both African and European features, and the social contrasts in them - even after the elimination of the apartheid system in South Africa - remain very noticeable.
IN Tropical Africa the level of urbanization is lower than in North Africa: in West Africa it is 42%, in East Africa – 22%, in Central Africa – 40%. The average figures for individual countries are approximately the same. It is symptomatic that in continental Tropical Africa (without islands) there are only six countries where the share of the urban population exceeds 50%: Gabon, Congo, Liberia, Botswana, Cameroon and Angola. But here are the least urbanized countries such as Rwanda (19%), Burundi (10%), Uganda (13), Burkina Faso (18), Malawi and Niger (17% each). There are also countries in which the capital concentrates 100% of the total urban population: Bujumbura in Burundi, Praia in Cape Verde. And in terms of the total number of city residents (more than 65 million), Nigeria ranks uncompetitively first in all of Africa. Many of the cities of Tropical Africa are extremely crowded. The most striking example of this kind is Lagos, which in terms of this indicator (about 70 thousand people per 1 km 2) ranks one of the first places in the world. Yu. D. Dmitrevsky once noted that many cities in Tropical Africa are characterized by a division into “native”, “business” and “European” parts.
Demographic projections provide an opportunity to track the progress of Africa's urban explosion to 2010, 2015 and 2025. According to these forecasts, in 2010 the urban population should increase to 470 million people, and its share in the total population - up to 44%. It is estimated that if in 2000–2015. Urban population growth rates will average 3.5% per year, the share of urban residents in Africa will approach 50%, and the continent's share of the world's urban population will increase to 17%. Apparently, in 2015, the number of African agglomerations with millionaires will increase to 70. At the same time, Lagos and Cairo will remain in the group of super-cities, but the number of their residents will increase to 24.6 million and 14.4 million, respectively. Seven cities will have from 5 million to 10 million inhabitants (Kinshasa, Addis Ababa, Algiers, Alexandria, Maputo, Abidjan and Luanda). And in 2025, the urban population of Africa will exceed 800 million people, with its share of the total population being 54%. In Northern and Southern Africa this share will increase to 65 and even 70%, and in the currently least urbanized East Africa it will be 47%. By the same time, the number of millionaire agglomerations in Tropical Africa may increase to 110.
Conclusion
In conclusion, I would like to draw the following conclusions:
The share of the population of African countries tends to steadily increase;
In contrast to mortality, in Africa, with regard to fertility, traditional demographic behavior continues, aimed at maintaining its indicators at a high and even very high level;
Among Africa there are dozens of very small in population, and often just dwarf states, the demographic policy in which (if it is carried out) is aimed primarily not at reducing, but at increasing natural population growth;
In most countries of tropical Africa, mortality has been rising in recent years due to the ongoing AIDS epidemic.
At the same time, it is necessary to take into account that the relative growth rate of the Earth's population reached its peak in the 60s. last century; and since the late 80s. The absolute growth rate of the world population also began to decline. Currently, population growth rates are declining in almost all countries of the world; and we can say that we live in the era of the end of the demographic explosion. At the same time, the threat of relative overpopulation levels reaching catastrophic levels still persists in relation to individual countries, where the rate of demographic growth is still extremely high, and it is slowing down at an insufficient pace (primarily we are talking about the countries of Tropical Africa, such as Niger, DRC, Angola, etc.).
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Africa has the highest population reproduction rate. In a number of countries (Kenya, Uganda, Nigeria) the birth rate exceeds 50 newborns per 1000 inhabitants, which is 4-5 times higher than in Europe. At the same time, Africa has the highest mortality rate and lowest life expectancy in the world. With an average density of 25 people per 1 sq. km, the population is distributed very unevenly across Africa. The most densely populated areas are the sea coasts and coastal areas of South Africa, Zambia, Zaire and Zimbabwe. In these areas, the population density ranges from 50 to 1000 people per 1 sq. km. In the vast expanses of the Sahara, Kalahari, and Namib deserts, the population density barely reaches 1 person per 1 sq. km.
Africa ranks first in the world for illiteracy. In modern Africa there are more than 1000 ethnic groups and more than 700 linguistic indigenous people. Therefore, often the official language is the language of the country whose colony this country was. The three most common official languages are French, English and Arabic; other European languages are Spanish and Portuguese. In a number of countries there are two official languages: European and local, and only in 1/5 of all African countries one of the languages of the local population is official.
Africa is characterized by significant population migration (external and internal). The main centers of attraction for labor from the African continent are Western Europe and Western Asia (especially the Gulf countries). Within the continent, labor migration flows mainly go from the poorest countries to the richer ones (South Africa, Nigeria, Ivory Coast, Libya, Morocco, Egypt, Tanzania, Kenya, Zaire, Zimbabwe).
Features of African civilization
The peculiarities of African civilization, which foreign and domestic geographers point out, can also serve as an obstacle to carrying out socio-economic transformations in Africa. So, A.P. Kuznetsov notes that " the basis of African civilization is a fairly harmonious coexistence with nature, which leaves its mark on the psychology of African inhabitants and agricultural methods.". The backwardness of agriculture, expressed in low crop yields and low livestock productivity, is explained by the natural conditions of Africa (high temperatures and humidity), which contribute to the rapid spoilage of products, which limits the possibility of their storage. For this reason, in Africa, crops with different harvest times are traditionally grown, which are low-yielding (millet, sorghum, etc.). In Africa, slash-and-burn agriculture is practiced, characteristic of tropical rainforests. A plot of land is cultivated until the soil is depleted. Then the area is abandoned and a new one is developed through cutting and burning. Such a system requires large areas; It is characterized by the absence of more or less developed livestock farming and cultivation of the land with a hoe rather than a plow. The use of modern agricultural technology in conditions of slash-and-burn farming leads to destructive results.
The unity of man and nature in Africa contributed to the development of specific African character traits, which include sociability and goodwill, impulsiveness, collectivism, but at the same time inertia, apathy, and lack of desire to change anything. At the same time, collectivism is understood very broadly - not only as a community of people, but also as a community with divine power, spirits, with animals and flora, with inanimate nature.
These features of African civilization and economic management are the reason why the development programs for African countries developed by European countries turn out to be untenable and even destructive for them,
E.N. Smirnov “Introduction to the course of world economics” - M.: KNORUS, 2008. - P.416.
since they do not take into account the specifics of Africa, the everyday, psychological and other habits of its population. However, traditional African farming practices do not meet modern requirements and realities. These realities include: the growth of Africa's population, which cannot be supplied with food under current African agricultural practices; the industrialization of African countries, into which they are drawn in during the development of the world economy; reduction of farmland; drawing African countries into the world economic system, which dictates its own rules.
