Denis Valentinovich Manturov Minister of Industry and Trade of the Russian ...
After the 2014 Olympics, Russia may experience a "post-Olympic" depression caused by the high costs of hosting the Games.
Writes about this The Financial Times. The publication points out that there is a whole list of countries that first became the hosts of prestigious sporting events, and then experienced economic decline - for example, Greece and South Africa.
According to expert estimates, Moscow spent more than $ 50 billion on preparations for the Sochi Olympics, which is seven times the cost of hosting the Games in London. Russia has managed to overtake even China, which has invested $ 40 billion in the Olympic Games in Beijing (moreover, summer, not winter). According to The Financial Times, Russian oligarchs and state-owned companies, which provided financing for the construction of Olympic facilities, actively borrowed funds from foreign creditors, which is why there has been a steady increase in Russian external debt over the past two years.
Paying off these debts after the Olympics could hurt the Russian economy. According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, in 2014 GDP will increase by only 2.5% instead of the preliminary 3%, and according to a number of experts, GDP growth will not exceed 1.5-2% at all. In this situation, the Winter Games in Sochi, which, according to The Financial Times, are a showcase of Vladimir Putin's regime, can worsen the economic situation and significantly weaken the position of the Russian leader in the future.
The publication believes that Putin can repeat the fate of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdogan. In 2012-2013, Erdogan focused on a number of "crazy" projects (his own definition), for the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Turkish Republic, to leave a mark on the history of Turkey. In particular, according to the plan of the head of the Turkish government, on the Thracian isthmus, parallel to the Bosphorus, a canal 50 kilometers long and 25 meters deep should be dug between the Marmara and the Black Seas in order to unload navigation on the strait dividing the Turkish metropolis in two. The cost of the work reached 8-10 billion US dollars.
According to critics, in an attempt to implement his ambitious project, the prime minister has lost a clear understanding of what the majority of Turkey's residents really need. As a result, half of the country rose up against Erdogan, and the most well-to-do and educated part of it. This was followed by the arrests of Erdogan's ministers and the cleansing of the leadership of the Turkish police in all regional departments.
Today, Turkish markets are going through hard times - the Turkish finance minister warned of a high likelihood of rising inflation and a slowdown in economic growth. For the first time in a decade of Erdogan's hegemony, his authority in the domestic political arena was seriously questioned.
Perhaps Putin is now at risk of making the same mistakes by focusing on the Sochi Olympics and ignoring the real problems of the Russian economy, The Financial Times sums up.
What actually awaits Russia after the Olympics?
“After the Olympics, the host countries of the event experience, as a rule, a serious deterioration in the economic situation,” confirms Nikita Maslennikov, head of the Finance and Economics department at the Institute of Contemporary Development. - This can be considered a post-Olympic pattern. The most striking example of this kind is Greece, which just after the 2004 Olympics began to creep into the current difficult economic situation. In other countries, these processes were less pronounced, but they were almost always present.
The only exception was the 2012 London Games, which brought small but profitable profits, plus proved to be a testing ground for new contactless payment systems. For example, Visa, a sponsor of the Games, demonstrated an innovative technology of payment via a mobile phone and a card with an embedded chip, thanks to which it was possible to pay for purchases in thousands of trade and service enterprises in London and on the territory of the Olympic venues.
"SP": - Will Russia experience a post-Olympic recession in the economy?
- The Russian leadership was well aware that post-Olympic problems in the economy could arise. On the one hand, the incentive for investment demand is being exhausted in connection with the completion of the construction of Olympic facilities. On the other hand, there are problems for investors who have invested a lot of money in these objects. After the Olympics, these investors may find themselves in a difficult situation, and since many of them are the captains of Russian business, this may affect the state of the country's economy as a whole.
But there are a number of circumstances to keep in mind that can mitigate this predicted negative effect. The Olympic Games will provide a fairly significant boost to consumer demand. This is a short-term incentive, but it can still help the economy absorb the effect of lower investment, and keep it afloat. I think that in the first half of 2014 we will even be able to get a zero balance when the reduction in investment is compensated by a surge in consumer demand.
But the long-term problem with the financial position of investors will undoubtedly remain. To level it, the government took preventive measures: Vnesheconombank went to installment payments on "Olympic" loans, Sberbank is also taking measures to restructure these loans. Therefore, I believe that Russia has good chances to weaken the post-Olympic syndrome.
But, again, it will not be possible to completely avoid it. If I may put it that way, there is a serious line of factors playing on the general weakening of the Russian economy in 2014, primarily due to its unresolved structural problems. No one today can guarantee that Russia will avoid the post-Olympic slowdown that all countries experienced when holding major sporting events.
"SP": - What conclusions can be drawn from this situation?
- We need to deal not only with preventive measures to smooth out the negative post-Olympic effect, but also with an active audit of the cost-effectiveness of Olympic construction. I think that after the Olympics, a lot of interesting facts will be revealed in this area.
In my opinion, conclusions should be drawn from this situation for financial and economic policy in a broad sense. First of all, it is necessary to create institutions for independent examination of large investment projects that are being implemented on the territory of the Russian Federation. This is an extremely acute problem, and after the Olympics it, I hope, will receive an additional impetus for an early resolution ...
“The parallel of The Financial Times between the fates of Putin and Erdogan does not seem convincing to me,” says Nikolai Petrov, a member of the Scientific Council of the Carnegie Moscow Center. - In Turkey, as we see, with the growth of Erdogan's role, other centers of power remained. In fact, what the Turkish prime minister is facing now is not a sudden split in the elite, but the actions of forces that Erdogan never controlled.
In Russia - for Putin - the situation is tactically better, but strategically worse. Better because it is impossible to imagine that the Supreme Court or some kind of power structure would suddenly act contrary to the opinion, decision, position of the president. On the other hand, this means that in Turkey, albeit through a crisis, the situation will stabilize, and Erdogan's not always balanced and adequate actions will be quickly revised. But in Russia one can go to a dead end for a long time, since there are no checks that can bring the system of power to an optimal state. And therefore, when our country nevertheless faces a political crisis, its consequences can be very destructive for the power system.
SP: - What will be the negative post-Olympic effect for Russia?
- There are two points to distinguish here. The first is the Olympics as such. Today it is already clear that it will not be possible to obtain additional benefits - for example, image benefits - as a result of the Games. It is, rather, about the costs, and how great they will be.
This depends partly on the authorities, but to a greater extent on how the situation in the country will develop during the Games - for example, whether there will be large-scale terrorist attacks. Ultimately, given the colossal costs incurred in connection with the Sochi Olympics, any failure - be it a man-made disaster or a poor performance by the Russian national team - can lead - conditionally - to the effect of the Russian-Japanese war of 1904-1905. This war, let me remind you, was conceived as a demonstration of the strength of the tsarist regime, but as a result it led to a sharp weakening of the positions of Emperor Nicholas II, since defeat in it was viewed as a national humiliation.
As for the long-term economic consequences, it is wrong to compare Russia with South Africa or Greece - the scale is different. Yes, the costs of the Sochi Olympics are enormous, but the Russian economy is also big. Serious negative economic consequences can, rather, be felt only by the southern regions of Russia.
The same Krasnodar Territory received colossal investments for several years, and was in the center of attention of the federal authorities. Immediately after the Games, the situation will change - and not only for the region, but for the entire North Caucasus. Moreover, it will change politically for the ethnic North Caucasus. The factors that determined the Kremlin's willingness to pay any money to buy the loyalty of ethnic elites will cease to operate immediately after the Olympics.
Therefore, after the Games, both the political destabilization of the region and its economic subsidence are possible - in this case, these are interrelated things. This will be the main post-Olympic syndrome of the 2014 Games in Sochi ...
Andrey Polunin Free Press
The country's economic situation is the main cause for concern for many Russians. Residents of Russia were a little distracted from negative thoughts thanks to the enchanting celebration of peace, sport and friendship - the Olympic Games. But the world event in Sochi ends.
Thoughts about the victories of domestic athletes are replaced by worries about rising prices, stagnation and instability of the ruble. The holiday ends, and many are puzzled by the question: "How will the country heal after the closure of the Olympic Games?"
Negative thoughts about the sad economic situation in Russia are a normal reaction of any person who understands a little about economics. A lot of money was invested in the Olympics. Was it a waste of resources that could provoke a financial crisis, or will investing in the Olympic Games improve the Russian economy?
The Olympics have more than once been the cause of economic problems, for example, remember Greece, and how the holiday of peace and sports turned out for it. The crisis manifested itself here due to the overspending of funds allocated for the Games. As a result, the country's budget has become impoverished by 9 billion euros. Greece did not find use for most of the facilities built for the Olympics. By doing this, she caused irreparable damage to her financial condition. Only reputable experts can explain the consequences of the Olympics for the country's economy.
For example, Natalya Orlova, who holds the position of a leading economist at Alfa-Bank and a professor at the Department of Stock Market and Investments at the Higher School of Economics, believes that the Olympic Games do not slow down economic growth. An effect should be expected on the scale of 0.1-0.2% of GDP per year. What are the expert's assumptions related to? N. Orlova explains her assumptions by the peculiarity of the localization of the effect: the consequences will be for one region, and not for the whole country.
According to the expert, there is no need to wait for the deplorable economic situation in the country. All this is an erroneous assumption of the population. One should not think that the Kremlin is not in control of the situation and the exchange rate will change after the Olympics. In fact, there are no threats to the Russian economy. The government is acting according to a regular scenario. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation allows large movements in the exchange rate for one reason: the exchange rate is determined by the market and the priorities of investors. Natalya Orlova explains that there is no connection between the end of the Olympic Games and a sharp decline in the Russian economy.
This opinion is shared by Andrey Nikityuk, Chairman of the Board of Concern General Invest. The expert believes that there is no threat of a crisis for the country after the end of the Olympics. A. Nikityuk confirms a slight slowdown in economic growth, but it is connected with preparations for the Olympics: large investments in construction have added points to Russia's GDP.
Anna Bodrova, senior analyst at Alpari, does not exclude that after the Olympics, the Russian economy will return to stagnation. It is possible that after the end of the Olympics, the profit from it will add about 0.7-1% to the GDP. The expert confirms his opinion with the example of the London 2012 Olympics. It had a positive effect on the UK economy: the economic effect was equal to 9.9 billion pounds, and the costs amounted to 9 billion. British experts predict an increase in economic benefits to 40 billion pounds by 2020.
Georgy Vashchenko, who is the head of operations at Freedom Finance, explains that business is making a profit from the Olympics, and the state is making losses. The cost of the Olympic Games in Russia amounted to 1 trillion rubles. But the state invested in infrastructure, but not in the Games. G. Vaschenko believes that this is not enough. The government rejected a proposal to build a high-speed railroad. The new railway line would have connected the Center of the Russian Federation with the Caucasus, but this did not happen. The tourist flow is still limited by the capacity of the highways and the Sochi airport.
G. Vaschenko reassures the Russians, says that there will be no crisis after the Olympics. The expert reminds about the upcoming sporting event - the World Cup. The state will build the necessary sports facilities, repair roads and airports in the country. But in this case, a large-scale event of a world level will not become an opportunity for the country for high economic growth in some regions. The championship will remain in history, but it will remind of itself with the weak budgets of federal subjects.
Nikolai Zhuravlev, a member of the Federation Council, deputy chairman for budget and financial market issues, also excludes economic problems after the Olympics. The expert is sure that the Games, on the contrary, will have a positive effect. According to Nikolai Zhuravlev, the crisis was avoided by weakening the ruble. Due to the political unstable situation, Russia's GDP growth will be low, but it will not go beyond the positive zone.
The authoritative opinions of experts agree on one thing: there will be no crisis after the Olympics. But there is no need to wait for any positive changes. The government has invested huge sums in the Krasnodar Territory, but the changes in the economy have a local effect. The overwhelming majority of Russians will not feel the changes in the economic situation in the country. Despite this, we are seeing the economy slowing down, and the ruble is still losing ground.
While the fans keep an intense record of the medals won by the Russian national team, political scientists are wondering: what will happen after Sochi? Will the 2014 Games become the same watershed in politics and economics that the public has been anticipating over the past months (or even years)? "They will not be removed before the Olympics" - such a forecast is heard every now and then when it comes to the fate of this or that official. And then? The end of the Olympics is associated with the most apocalyptic expectations - from the resignation of the government to the next round of "tightening the screws."
Rumors that after the Olympics either the resignation of the Cabinet, or the devaluation of the ruble, or the economic crisis could occur, even the presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov had to refute. More precisely, he refuted only the resignation of the government (this is such a permanent, according to Peskov, "fun"), because the devaluation of the ruble happened before the start of the Games, well, and the sluggish crisis has long been obvious.
Nevertheless, a number of resignations can be predicted with a high degree of probability, if not immediately after the Olympics, then soon after its end. In recent days, the media has stubbornly stubbornly one of Vladimir Putin's closest associates, the country's main railroad worker, Vladimir Yakunin. As reported on February 11 by the Dozhd TV channel, citing several informed sources, in June the Russian Railways head's contract expires, and the principal decision on his resignation has already been made. This is the second wave of rumors about Yakunin's resignation (it happened last summer). The active information campaign currently underway against the head of Russian Railways makes one suspect that Yakunin has a competitor in Putin's inner circle. The first "resignation" was accompanied by revelations from the well-known "information killer" Alexei Navalny; the second wave of rumors is accompanied by a devastating report by the Accounts Chamber.
A vacancy is expected to appear soon in another state corporation: it is known that Alexey Miller is leaving the post of chairman of the board of Gazprom due to health problems. German Gref is being wooed in his place. But the position is also considered as a possible future place of work of Dmitry Medvedev. Earlier, in this capacity, the united Supreme Court appeared more often, the reform of which Putin launched last fall. However, according to rumors, Medvedev himself made it clear that he prefers the gas monopoly - especially since he already worked there.
In any case, last Saturday began accepting applications from applicants for judicial positions in the united Supreme Court. It will last until mid-March, which means that if Medvedev intends to develop his career in this direction, he must take appropriate steps in the near future. Although, if we consider the current government solely as a valve for bleeding off the social steam, the coming months are not the best time to replace the cabinet of ministers: the main growth of discontent is clearly still ahead.
However, the alarm bell has already rang: in December, the former head of the Russian government, authoritative academician Yevgeny Primakov made a report in which he harshly criticized Medvedev's cabinet of ministers for neoliberal policy - in Primakov's opinion, it is completely contrary to the country's interests and the president's course. Primakov to direct "opposition to the policy of neoliberals" - that is, any attempts by the government to reduce the state's presence in the economy. And, quite possibly, this call has already been heard in the Kremlin.
Until recently, the phenomenon of Putin was that he was able to pursue a right-wing economic policy, while satisfying the left political request of the majority. However, the logic of the "authoritarian tendency" that emerged after the president's return to the Kremlin requires the abandonment of liberal methods of managing the national economy - they are increasingly irritating the patriotic statesmen, on whom the Kremlin is forced to rely. This pressure may be stronger than anticipated social protest and work earlier.
And, it seems, in this sense, the Olympics, which is important for the Kremlin, first of all, as an instrument of self-positioning in the world, may turn out to be not only a formal boundary. It is very likely that decisions will also be made based on the results of the Games - at least on an emotional level. The “tightening of the screws” in recent years has been clearly associated with the reaction to the protests of late 2011 and early 2012. If Putin and his entourage are not allowed to feel the planned Olympic triumph, and instead are made to feel like outcasts (reports of foreign journalists about the numerous shortcomings in Sochi as an allusion to just such a development of events), the reaction could be a new round of tightening the regime, a new conservative wave, which is quite capable of covering not only street demonstrators, but also the Medvedev government.
The Olympics will be held in Sochi from 7 to 23 February 2014. In November 2013, the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation adjusted the forecast of socio-economic development until 2030. The worst - conservative - scenario of the country's development was chosen as the baseline back in September, and in November it worsened even more: in 2030 the Russian economy will continue to be a resource-based economy, capital outflow will continue, strong property stratification will continue, the department predicted. Earlier, we wrote about seven signs of a worsening economic situation in the country. This time RB.ru gathered the opinions of experts on the impact of the Sochi Olympics on the Russian economy.
Alexey Kuznetsov, Head of the Center for European Studies, Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences:
“In our country, the economy is clearly not all right, everyone can see it. There is a slowdown in economic growth. Over the past years, several problems that lead to this slowdown have not been resolved. This is corruption, this is the housing issue, which entails a decline in the birth rate. We often say that the birth rate is good. But it can only be called good in comparison with the indicators of the 90s. Among the serious problems are the monopolized market, the slow introduction of innovations. This time is not needed, and all these factors do not inspire optimism about the Russian economy.
It is wrong to say that the Olympics will hit the economy. Part of the investment costs for the Olympics was made in preparation for the Games.
This is not to say that the huge construction site will remain idle after sporting events. We have enough megastrojects in our country. In my opinion, the very fact of holding the Olympics should by no means be regarded as a trigger for the economic crisis. "
Diana Maklozyan, Head of Legal Department, HEADS:
“It is worth noting that a lot of amendments were made to the tax legislation for the Olympics, introducing tax incentives for companies participating in the Olympics. Most of them concern VAT, which is so revered in Russia.
After the commissioning of the facilities, the amount of VAT claimed for deduction will significantly increase, which will become a burden on the Russian budget. And the budget needs to be replenished, therefore, taxes on the most effective sector of the economy of the Russian Federation, the oil and gas industry, will increase, which will entail an increase in gas and gasoline prices, which, in turn, will lead to another jump in prices and inflation.
Also, after the Olympics, an outflow of investments outside the Russian Federation is possible, for this there are two reasons: foreign investments in the Olympic facilities will end and VAT refunded, which should be received by someone.
Do not forget that the Sochi Olympics coincides in time with the fateful date for the US dollar (a technical default is scheduled for February in the US - ed.), And the Russian economy is too closely tied to the fate of this foreign currency.
Based on the above, we can assume that a crisis is possible. But we have been intimidated by financial collapse every year since 2008. In any case, it is already difficult for them to surprise the inhabitants of our country, and it is unlikely that for 80% of the country's population something will change much. "
Anton Shabanov, expert of BCS Premier bank:
"There is no reason to believe that Sochi will face a financial crisis at the moment - if, of course, an adequate program is proposed for using the Olympic infrastructure for the development of the resort in the future, sports and other facilities will not suffer the same fate as, for example, many facilities. in Athens, which were closed as unnecessary shortly after the Olympic Games in 2004. Do not forget that Sochi will host other large-scale sporting events: the 2018 FIFA World Cup, Formula 1 races. infrastructural, communal facilities, will allow to develop tourist attractiveness, create new jobs, increase city incomes. "
- Over the past weeks, the ruble has dropped significantly both against the euro and against the dollar. And people do not understand what is happening, because we usually associate a rise in the exchange rate with a fall in oil prices. Could you please explain to our readers what is happening and why?
There are a number of related circumstances. The first circumstance: the balance of payments in Russia is deteriorating. During the time of high oil prices, we got used to the fact that we have a positive balance of payments - and with a very significant superiority.
However, the results of 2013 cannot be called otherwise alarming. The point is that the current surplus of the balance of payments has decreased in the past year by more than two times. From $ 82 billion a year to $ 33 billion
If this trend continues, then by the end of 2014 this balance may become negative. When the balance of such transactions becomes negative, it just has a strong effect on the exchange rate of the national currency.
Second circumstance. Our authorities, in fact, are not against this devaluation. The devaluation of the ruble by about a ruble means the appearance in the budget of more than 150 billion rubles of additional income, since the budget receives the main revenues from foreign economic activity, and they are denominated in foreign currency. And the main budget expenditures are carried out in rubles.
- That is, it is profitable for the authorities?
In fact, we are dealing with a hidden form of devaluation of government obligations. Moreover, the scale here is quite decent: already six months ago we had the opportunity to observe a 10% devaluation. This story continues to this day.
The government is faced with virtually a halt in economic growth. It is unprecedentedly low during the entire period of Putin's rule - 1.3 percent at the end of 2013. It was worse only in the crisis year of 2009, when there was a drop of almost 8 percent. However, there has not been such low economic growth since 1999.
If we look at the dynamics since the 10th year, when there was a recovery and it was 4 percent, then we can observe a very sad trend. And this tendency is reinforced by the fact that we have an unprecedentedly low growth rate in the production of oil products. Oil production has grown by less than a percent this year.
The government commented on this in such a way that we have reached a record high. But this indicator (less than a percent) has a direct correlation with low economic growth.
The last couple of years we have been actively nationalizing the fuel and energy complex - the state's share there has already exceeded 50 percent. This means that next year Russia may face not only small growth, but also a drop in oil production.
From the point of view of the conjuncture of budget revenues, this is aggravated by the fact that oil prices are stagnating - they are not growing. In 11-12, the Russian government was helped by the war in Libya, but now this factor is gone.
Therefore, the government lends to commercial banks at very low rates. They receive cash in rubles, and then, seeing that there is a devaluation, they willingly aggravate this devaluation by buying currency with money received from the Central Bank. And the authorities, as I said, are not against this devaluation.
You can pay attention to a number of other numbers. For example, in December last year, excess reserves of commercial banks jumped 60 percent. This is due to the seasonal nature. In December, there is a sharp surge in budget expenditures: the departments want to have time to spend all their spending in the outgoing year, because their postponement to the next year is associated with serious bureaucratic costs (in fact, we are talking about re-agreeing these costs). All this, of course, spurs devaluation.
And one more factor. The population and enterprises have withdrawn from the banking sector about half a trillion rubles in a month, and this is a huge amount. Panic arose after the revocation of licenses from Master Bank and Investbank.
There was also a statement from the leadership of the Central Bank that they would continue to fight "bad" banks. This also caused a panic effect, since no one knows which bank is bad and which is good. And enterprises, if you remember, are not even covered by the well-known guarantee for 700 thousand. And enterprises that kept funds in commercial banks faced the danger of their complete loss.
- What can you say about the near future of the ruble?
As for forecasts, I believe that the main thing that will determine the exchange rate of the national currency in the coming year is the state of our balance of payments. If imports continue to grow and exports stagnate, the positive balance of payments will begin to shrink.
The authorities, in turn, will mitigate this by spending gold and foreign exchange reserves, which are very significant in Russia - hundreds of billions of dollars. We are one of the five countries with the largest gold and foreign exchange reserves.
— Usually, when the rate grows - and seriously - people start to worry and ask questions. And here a strange reaction - only the Moscow office plankton sighs sadly: they say, they left for Europe. And in your opinion, why don't citizens run to exchange offices to get rid of rubles?
It's just that most of the population does not have any savings that they could invest in currency or transfer from one asset to another. What is happening is mainly caused by the actions of large players: commercial banks receiving cheap liquidity; enterprises that withdraw money from accounts in private banks, and individuals who are engaged in the same, but individuals, I emphasize, are very rich.
A significant part of the population has no serious savings. On the contrary, there are debts in the form of loans. In terms of the level of the population's debt burden, we compared with the United States - if we take into account how much money from our monthly income we spend on paying off loans.
But our debt is shorter and more expensive: we have a much higher percentage of loans, and their maturity is much shorter than in America. But the United States is also considered a highly credited country - in this regard, it stands out from a number of other developed countries.
- And the last question. After the end of the Olympics, the majority of the population anticipates some kind of economic collapse. Many people say that the economy will simply collapse.
Personally, I expect stagnation to continue. I do not expect some kind of sharp decline. A sharp decline is possible only in one case - in the event of a sharp drop in hydrocarbon prices. This has already happened: we all remember 1998 and 2008. We know that hydrocarbon prices can fall two to three times in a few months.
This, of course, is a minus. But the plus here is that such a fall - albeit deep - is short-lived. As the experience of the last two crises has shown, these prices have been successfully recovering during the year.
In addition to the already mentioned gold and foreign exchange reserves, Russia has other significant reserves. These are, for example, the Reserve Fund and the National Welfare Fund, which currently has about 10 trillion rubles. For you to understand, this is almost an annual budget. Our budget is now 13.6 trillion rubles, and a quite comparable amount is in sovereign funds.
This means that during the year the government is at least able to withstand the blow even from a sharp drop in hydrocarbon prices. And the likelihood that such a crisis could last longer than a year, in my opinion, is small.
There is, however, an objective problem: in Russia it becomes profitable to be a civil servant and it is unprofitable to do business and entrepreneurship. Therefore, we have a growing capital outflow. Our industrial production is falling. Economic growth is already beginning to approach zero.
These problems are also long-term - they cannot be solved quickly. This means that no major improvements should be expected either.
As for the Olympics, its significance for the economy is simply negligible. As for politics ... All the actions that were taken in the international arena to improve the image of Russia (in the form of an amnesty for a number of political prisoners, including Khodorkovsky), they have already been carried out.
And the government will continue to exist in the regime of soft authoritarianism in which it has existed for the last couple of years, that is, it will act through selective and non-mass repression. And those who say that after the Olympics we will have 37th year again, in my opinion, are simply delirious. Moreover, they have been raving like this for more than a year: just as Putin came to power, talk about the 37th began among the unbalanced public. And they still say so.
- It turns out that we should wait for the continuation of stagnation, but there will be no sharp crisis?
Yes, there will not be a sharp drop, because the gold and foreign exchange reserves and sovereign funds of the Russian budget will make it possible to withstand even a sharp drop in hydrocarbon prices.
Material prepared: Maria Ponomareva, Roman Popkov
