March 18 in Russia should be held presidential elections, which, obviously, must be won by Vladimir Putin for the fourth time.

The elections are scheduled for March 18, the anniversary of Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea. For the elections to take place on this day, even a special law was adopted (before its adoption, the elections were to take place on March 11). The law does not explicitly state the goal of postponing the election date, but this should probably increase the turnout (for an election to be valid, a turnout of at least 50% is required) and the number of votes for Vladimir Putin, with whom Russians associate annexation.

Accordingly, the day of silence before the elections, when election campaigning is prohibited, is March 17.

The results of the Russian elections must be announced no later than March 29, 2018, and officially published by April 3, 2018. The winner of the election will be the candidate with an absolute majority of votes (over 50%).

If no candidate gets the required number of votes (which is unlikely), a second round will take place on April 8, 2018.

Elections, who is in the lead: VTsIOM called the awareness of Russians about the elections as maximum

“Citizens' awareness of the elections remains at the maximum level: 92% of respondents know that voting should take place in March 2018, the awareness index is 93 points out of 100 possible,” the message says.

Vladimir Putin remains the leader of the presidential race, 69% of respondents intend to support him. The second is Pavel Grudinin (7%), the third is Vladimir Zhirinovsky (5%). The rest of the candidates gained less than 5%: Ksenia Sobchak - 2%, Grigory Yavlinsky and Sergey Baburin - 1%, Maxim Suraikin and Boris Titov - 0%.

36% of the respondents believe that the elections will be fair, 42% more commit minor violations that will not affect the outcome of the elections.

Leading sociological services of Russia presented measurements of electoral sentiment for the beginning of March, as well as a forecast for the election results. Among the candidates, the current President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, is still in the lead by a large margin. The voter turnout on March 18 is predicted to be in the range of 63-67%.

The declared turnout level remains consistently high throughout election campaign... Answering the question whether they will take part in the voting on March 18, 74% of Russians said that they would definitely accept, another 9% that they would "most likely". 9% promise to decide closer to the election day. About 6% of the respondents do not plan to come to the polling stations. These are data from a survey by the All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VTsIOM).

According to the Foundation's survey “ Public opinion”(FOM), 84.7% of citizens said about their intention to come to the polls with varying degrees of confidence, of whom 64.8% intend to vote“ absolutely ”, and 19.9% ​​-“ probably ”. The number of refuseniks at FOM is higher than at VTsIOM: 11% are not going to come to the polling stations. In terms of age, the maximum number of respondents “I will not take part in the elections” (19.8%) is among citizens of 18-30 years old. For comparison: among citizens over 60, only 3.8% do not intend to vote.

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On March 18, 2018, Russian citizens will come to polling stations and cast their votes to the most worthy contender for supreme power in the country. Although it is still more than two months until this moment, the preliminary results of the 2018 elections can be summed up now - judging by the ratings, V.V. Putin. The confidence of the people in the incumbent president is so high that there is no doubt about it. However, the significant preponderance of one candidate over the rest of the list does not at all reduce interest in the presidential race. There are good reasons for this.

Campaign features

The 2018 elections are destined to go down in history for a number of reasons. This company will be the last for the long-term leader of the state V.V. Putin and his eternal opponent V.V. Zhirinovsky. For the first time yet another political heavyweight, G.A. Zyuganov, who soberly assessed his strength and chances of winning.

Never before have Russian voters seen such a thing, who considered themselves worthy to climb the Olympus of power. More than 40 representatives of large and small parties, self-nominated candidates, announced their readiness to join the presidential race. The most controversial figures were eliminated at the preliminary stage. The CEC of the Russian Federation admitted eight to the decisive battle.

What is the rating of candidates now

* poll started at 13:10 on March 18, 2018 Moscow time

Since the campaign has been going on for more than a month, it makes sense to sum up the interim results of the presidential elections in Russia in 2018.To do this, it is worth analyzing the results of polls of sociologists at the moment. In order to obtain an objective assessment of the candidates' chances, let us compare the data of FOM and VTsIOM working with a significant number of respondents.

The overwhelming majority of Russians have no doubts that Putin will win the 2018 elections. According to polls, up to 70 (VTsIOM) percent of the country's citizens are ready to vote for him. The rest of the candidates had the following rating:

• V. Zhirinovsky - from 5.7 to 6%;
• P. Grudinin - from 5.3 to 7.5%;
• G. Yavlinsky - from 0.5 to 1.4%;
• K. Sobchak - up to 1%;
• B. Titov - up to 1%;
• S. Baburin - up to 1%;
• M. Suraykin - up to 1%.

The chances of S. Baburin and M. Suraykin to win the presidential elections in the Russian Federation were estimated at the level of statistical error.

Internet audience surveys give slightly different results. For example, the "People's Rating" site basetop.ru, calls Grudinin the favorite in the presidential race (59%). Putin's candidacy was supported by 15% of visitors to the resource, Sobchak by 7%, Zhirinovsky and Suraikin by 6%, Baburin, Yavlinsky and Titov by 2%. The results of such voting cannot cause anything but skepticism. The views of the audience of one Internet resource can be diametrically different from the views of the visitors of another. In addition, cases of cheating and fraudulent voting on the Internet are not uncommon.

The dynamics of the popularity of applicants

It is very interesting to analyze how the attitude of voters towards the participants in the presidential race has changed over the month and a half that have passed since the beginning of this year. Comparing the data of the December opinion polls with the February ratings, it is not difficult to identify certain trends.

• The preliminary results of the 2018 elections as of the end of December would have witnessed a victory for the incumbent with a score of 68 to 83.8%. A slight decline in V. Putin's popularity is due to the ambivalent attitude of society towards the participation of Russian athletes in the Pyeongchang Olympics under a neutral flag. The possible increase in the sanctions pressure on the country, provided for by the secret annex to.
• V. Zhirinovsky remained at the same positions. The views of a constant participant in the presidential elections have long been known in society. The party has its own established electorate, always voting for the leader.
• The Communist Party candidate started the year with 7.6% of support, but has already lost about 0.7% of the votes of potential voters. You shouldn't be surprised at this. The traditional communist electorate experiences cognitive dissonance because the interests of the proletariat at the highest level will be represented by a billionaire capitalist. The scandals surrounding P. Grudinin's undeclared funds in foreign bank accounts also do not contribute to the growth of popularity.
• K. Sobchak, considering participation in the presidential elections as self-promotion for the future, lost about 0.5% of the rating. This is quite logical, because the main thing in the company of the odious "liberal" is shocking. Hence the statements about Crimea, Donbass, same-sex marriages, and other things that do not find support in society. In a negative light, Ksenia Anatolyevna is also presented with constant attempts to please the West.
• G. Yavlinsky, resurrected from relative political oblivion, is still unable to enlist the support of even a part of the electorate that Yabloko once possessed. In February, as in December, no more than 1% of voters would vote for him.
• Business Ombudsman B. Titov and the Growth Party, from which he goes to the elections, represent the interests of a very small part of society. The number of his supporters practically did not increase.
• M. Suraykin and S. Baburin in December were outsiders of the presidential race. Over the past period, their position in the table of ranks has not changed.

We suggest that you familiarize yourself with the current dynamics of the survey results below. For clarity, you can turn off unnecessary answers by clicking on them below the graph.

What is the most likely outcome of the 2018 presidential election? What places will the campaigners eventually occupy?

Final forecast: Putin and everyone else

The most interesting stage of the struggle for the Kremlin is starting now. Candidates for victory in the 2018 elections in Russia will begin face-to-face and correspondence debates, advertise their election programs in every possible way, and actively meet with the electorate. It is clear that the election of V. Putin to the post of head of state is a given. However, the intrigue regarding the distribution of places from 2 to 8 will persist for a long time. It remains to do a thankless job - predictions.

V. Putin will definitely win the elections. A huge number of his supporters will come to the polling stations, who do not consider it necessary to fill out the questionnaires of sociologists. Most citizens pin their hopes for a prosperous future with the name of Vladimir Vladimirovich. Many believe that the victorious president, who this time deliberately abstracted himself from political parties and movements, will devote the next six years to fighting corruption, reforming legislation, and strengthening the economic and political might of the Russian Federation. From 60 to 80% of Russians will vote for him.

The main intrigue of these elections is whether Pavel Grudinin will be able to bypass Vladimir Zhirinovsky.

Vladimir Zhirinovsky can get 8-12% of the vote. Zhirinovsky's second will be a remarkable result of his undoubtedly brilliant political career... After the next elections, most likely, the LDPR will lead new leaders.

The Communist Party of the Russian Federation will face difficult times. Perhaps the promotion of P. Grudinin was a tactical mistake of the patriarch, who was almost ready to transfer the steering wheel of the communist ship to other hands. A traditionally disciplined electorate will vote for the party's candidacy. Taking into account its reduction due to natural and introduced reasons, the support of 7-10% of voters will be a successful outcome. However, Grudinin himself states that he expects to receive at least 15%.

For the rest of the applicants, reaching a 2% rating will be a huge success. Ms. Sobchak will have to make sure that the presidential election is not a TV show, but G. Yavlinsky is in a deep crisis Russian liberalism... B Titov and Co. are terribly far from the people, S. Baburin and M. Suraikin simply do not have the necessary political weight, serious electoral support.

It will be possible to verify the accuracy of the forecasts made very soon. Perhaps one of the candidates will make an impressive leap forward and refute analysts' assumptions. Well, it will be all the more interesting to observe the ups and downs of the political struggle.

The final voting point is literally a couple of minutes. Plots all over Russia have already been completed. But the country is big, and there is still Kaliningrad. The count is actually in seconds. However, even after that, our citizens in Europe and America will still vote.

But 21 o'clock, according to the law, is already considered the borderline after which one can say: the elections have taken place and it is time to sum up the results. It is from nine in the evening that it is allowed to report the results of polls conducted at the exits from the polling stations, the so-called exit polls.

The president was elected today in 11 time zones, in which an estimated 107 million voters live. 97 thousand sections worked. For the first time, it was possible to vote, even while away, without any absentee ballots. It was enough to submit an application in advance to the MFC or on the website of public services. There are almost six million of those who voted at their place of residence.

Voting has become easier and more convenient, and at the same time, control over the elections to be fair and transparent is at a completely new level. The number of automatic complexes for processing ballots has been doubled. The vast majority of precincts and all territorial election commissions are equipped with cameras.

On the final protocols - QR codes, this allows you to speed up data entry and exclude the possibility of forgery. All attention will be focused on the content of these protocols in the next 24 hours. Counting is already underway in some regions. Others are just beginning. Just a minute ago, plots in the Kaliningrad region were closed. Voting in Russia is over.

So: the first data of exit polls are polls that sociologists conducted at the exit from polling stations. The results, as expected at 21:00, are published by the All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion.

VTsIOM surveyed 161 thousand people in the 81st region of Russia. So, according to the VTsIOM poll, Vladimir Putin is in the lead with a result of almost 74%. In second place is Pavel Grudinin, with just over 11%. Next in the top three is Vladimir Zhirinovsky, almost 7%. Ksenia Sobchak is in fourth place, with 2.5%. Grigory Yavlinsky has a little over 1.5%. Boris Titov, Sergei Baburin and Maxim Suraikin, according to exit polls, gain about 1%.

And one more research was conducted across the country by the Public Opinion Foundation. His data are as follows: for Vladimir Putin - 77% of the respondents. Pavel Grudinin has about 12%, Vladimir Zhirinovsky has about 6%. For Ksenia Sobchak, according to exit polls, about 2% voted. The results of Grigory Yavlinsky, Boris Titov, Sergey Baburin and Maxim Suraikin are within 1%. The results are based on a survey of 112,700 people conducted in 83 regions of Russia.

According to the Deputy Chairman of the Central Election Commission of Russia Nikolai Bulaev, the turnout in the voting by Russian Federation at 17.00 Moscow time was 51.9 percent.

“The turnout will be regularly updated online, the results will be displayed on the screen of the Information Center of the CEC of Russia,” said Chairwoman Ella Pamfilova.

Now everyone can watch the turnout figure in real time at http://www.cikrf.ru

Election of the President of the Russian Federation in 2018. Intermediate results of candidates

The page contains the results of the first round of voting, which was published on the website of an independent publication. So who is in the lead in the election race for the presidency of Russia?

The rating of the leaders of the second round of voting for the post of the head of the Russian Federation in an unofficial source

We would like to remind you that this is just the own data of an independent information source. The real leaders in the 2018 presidential elections can be observed on the CEC website. By going to the official resource of the Central Election Commission (www.cikrf.ru), you can see the leaders of the pre-election race and get the election result.

Preliminary results and turnout of the 2018 elections

Voter turnout

The voter turnout in the presidential elections in Russia as of 19:00 Moscow time was 59.5%. This was stated in the press service of the CEC.

“The average turnout in the presidential elections in the Russian Federation is 51.9%. From now on, the turnout data on the screens of the information center will be updated every three minutes, ”the press service said in Telegram.

Earlier, the Central Election Commission said that the presidential elections are being held at the highest level of openness.

In the course of polls conducted before election day, about 74% of the participants promised that they would definitely come to the elections, 9% were undecided about the answer. The overall turnout confirmed the predictions of sociologists - 64% -67% of the population in all regions of the country came to the polls.

For the elections, the CEC approved a budget of 17.6 billion rubles, most of which was spent on organizing the work of precinct commissions and informing citizens about voting.

It is interesting!

The oldest Russian citizen, aged 122, voted in the elections

In six villages of Chukotka, one hundred percent turnout was noted. In addition, 16 settlements Chukotka showed a turnout of over 90%.

The turnout in the elections on the ISS was 100 percent

Preliminary results of presidential elections

On the eve of the elections, experts from the Social Research Institute conducted polls, during which the following voter preferences were revealed:

• for Putin - 69%;
• for Grudinin - 7%;
• for Baburin - 1%;
• for Zhirinovsky - 5%;
• Sobchak - 2%;
• Suraykin - less than 1%;
• Titov - less than 1%;
• Yavlinsky - 1%.

The survey was completed in early March this year. The study involved 4,000 adult Russians. Possible statistical error - no more than 1.6%.

Electoral violations

Most of the incoming reports of voting irregularities in the presidential elections in Russia are fake, so far only one message has been confirmed, Alena Bulgakova, head of the executive committee of the Observer Corps for Clean Elections, told RIA Novosti.

According to her, so far only the information about the ballot stuffing in the city of Artyom in the Primorsky Territory has been confirmed, where the group has already left together with the secretary of the regional election commission.

The ballot stuffing was recorded at one of the polling stations in Lyubertsy, the ballot box was sealed, said Irina Konovalova, chairman of the Moscow Regional Electoral Commission.

“Our federal coordinator is also in place to keep us informed,” she said.

During the online marathon "Election Night", the federal coordinator of the "National Public Monitoring" Roman Kolomoitsev said that representatives of his organization also went to the site in Artyom.

Note that earlier there was a video showing the ballot stuffing in Lyubertsy.

Recall that eight people are running for the post of President of Russia, who is elected on March 18: Vladimir Putin (self-nominated candidate), Sergei Baburin (the Russian National Union party), Pavel Grudinin (Communist Party of the Russian Federation), Vladimir Zhirinovsky (LDPR), Ksenia Sobchak (Civil initiative "), Maxim Suraykin (" Communists of Russia "), Boris Titov (Party of Growth), Grigory Yavlinsky (" Yabloko ").